Spinoff Stories: Criminal Minds, The Franchise That Never Was

Ranking The Chances of Success of Reboots and Revivals Coming to Paramount Plus

 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Likely to be Renewed + ‘Instinct’ Downgraded

"Criminal Minds" (CBS)

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of April 24, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.4 / 4.1 / 2.79	-10%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.25	--
3	Mom	1.3 / 1.8 / 1.48	+3%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.42	-18%
5	Kevin Can Wait	0.9 / 2.3 / 1.21	-25%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.14	-10%
8	SEAL Team	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.04	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.8 / 1.1 / 1.01	-19%
10	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
11	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-13%
-	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 0.99	-28%
13	S.W.A.T.	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	--
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	-18%
-	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.94	-28%
17	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.92	-26%
18	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.91	-22%
-	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.85	-21%
21	Instinct	0.6 / 1.3 / 0.88	--
22	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.81	-32%
23	Living Biblically	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.70	--
24	Madam Secretary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.65	-26%

The table has been updated to reflect the recent renewals for the following series: Mom, NCIS, Bull, SEAL Team, Hawaii Five-0, S.W.A.T., NCIS: New Orleans, NCIS: LA, Blue Bloods, MacGyver, and Madam Secretary. These were correct predictions by the CBS Renew/Cancel.

As of 4/19, Living Biblically has been pulled from the schedule and is effectively cancelled with five episodes unaired. This was a correct prediction. 

Below are two prediction changes in this edition of the CBS R/C. An analysis for each adjustment has been provided.

CRIMINAL MINDS The show has been on the bubble for practically the entire season. It's a tough one to predict, considering that the networks are increasingly unpredictable with what they're willing to keep. Some shows that seem like they should be relieved of duty are just not to that point as far as the network heads are concerned. I previously decided to lean into a cancellation for Criminal Minds prior to all the early renewals, but I've since decided to upgrade it to a likely renewal. While it's likely to be the veteran series to end first due to its age, declining ratings, costs, and lack of full net ownership, it's still a respectable player that has done OK in its move to 10. As the season's gone on, its stability in the 0.9-1.0 range doesn't look horrible, especially since none of their new dramas (SEAL Team and S.W.A.T., specifically) have managed to regularly rate above that. It hasn't been moved to a lower priority Friday or Sunday slot at this point, so while the present time slot downgrade suggests CBS is phasing the procedural out, there is room for alternative scheduling before it's completely off the air. CBS can probably do better with cheaper alternatives going forward (especially on Wednesdays), but a 14th season that sends the series off with over 300 episodes might be just what CBS and ABC Studios are capable of negotiating. They frankly don't have to do anything for the show -- in fact, the network failed to give "final seasons" to past long-running dramas -- but some of them weren't around for as long as Criminal Minds. CSI is probably the most comparable series in this situation, and that iconic show at least had a movie to wrap things up (as much as you can "wrap up" for a crime procedural). Something tells me that CBS knows they could've prepared better for CSI's end, and they'll do a bit better with Criminal Minds. That might mean a reduced order for the last season, but they can find a way to air it if it's worth producing and ensures a smooth transition into CBS's next chapter post-Minds.

My reluctance to promote a renewal prediction throughout the current season has been, perhaps, tied up in my thinking that CBS has to end something soon. Criminal Minds always seemed like a fair candidate (and it is, no doubt) because of the reasons I've already mentioned, in addition to its inability to launch successful spinoffs like NCIS has achieved. It's in a vulnerable position where the network could truly take it or leave it, so I don't think my general pessimism has been unwarranted with that in mind. Ultimately, CBS didn't end any veterans last year, though they did send Code Black and Elementary to summer. This pretty much says that while they still need slots on the fall schedule for new shows, they don't really need to cancel much in order to make that happen. Criminal Minds could be held until midseason, as could Scorpion and/or Madam Secretary. It's doable, or at least CBS would probably think as much and navigate that scheduling when the deadline hits. Whether or not it makes financial sense for CBS to keep all these shows is another question altogether, but it's nearly impossible to predict how negotiations for Criminal Minds will go when it's consistently down to the wire between the network and studios involved. The positive it's looking at is that cast contracts for the original actors seem to be good to go for a Season 14, which should make talks somewhat easier. As such, I'm leaning into a renewal at this point, but a cancellation would be far from a surprise. 
INSTINCT The show is simply too weak to return in a priority slot next season. Through five airings, it's averaged a 0.88 rating in the demo, including two recent 0.6 performances without sports/event exposure. CBS has renewed soft midseason shows before, but the ones that come to mind had support from existing franchises (CSI: Cyber and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders) in addition to strong international potential. Instinct really doesn't boast the same kind of package, and CBS doesn't need it. The only reason it might stand a chance is if it's internally liked to an irrational degree, but based on ratings performance, its late-in-the-game scheduling, and CBS's two freshman drama renewals, it's likely to be cancelled. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Superior Donuts’ & ‘Criminal Minds’ Updated, ‘Instinct’ Debuts

"Superior Donuts" | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of March 23, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.87	-7%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.34	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+5%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.44	-16%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.0 / 2.3 / 1.25	-22%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.20	-16%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.17	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.05	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	-17%
10	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	--
11	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-12%
-	Instinct	- / 1.0 / 1.00	--
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
14	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 0.99	-29%
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-16%
16	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
17	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.95	-27%
18	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.93	-21%
20	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
21	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
22	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-30%
23	Living Biblically	0.7 / 0.8 / 0.73	--
24	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.66	-25%

CRIMINAL MINDS The reasons for the show's uncertain fate have been written and explored time and again: it's old, expensive, co-owned, and has had to endure cast shake-ups in the past few years. Its move to 10pm this season accelerated its y2y decline, and while it's averaging an OK 1.0 rating in the slot, it's not bringing much weight to the night anymore. SEAL Team is arguably wasting the potential in Criminal Minds' previous 9pm slot, but there's reason to believe that CBS will want to protect its 100% owned, highest rated freshman drama, and #3 drama over the aging veteran. They need space on the schedule and this would be a reasonable cancellation to make if the costs are just too high for what they're getting out of a 13 year old show. The argument could be made that it deserves a sendoff season, though CBS isn't notorious for providing that treatment. Complicated negotiations with ABC Studios will likely leave the show off of CBS's early renewal radar, but for the purposes of making a more definitive prediction away from the bubble, I have it as Likely to be Canceled at this time. 
SUPERIOR DONUTS What's clear is that CBS needs to improve their Mondays going forward. Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan are the strongest players on the night from 8-9 and are expected to be around for awhile. The revolving door of new comedies, including 9JKL, Living Biblically, and Me, Myself & I are not. While the Monday comedies are not really anchor-worthy, Superior Donuts is least qualified for that heavy lifting. To be fair, it's only down a tenth or two from the 8-9 block on any given week, but it's failing to make any sophomore gains (it's down 21% y2y) even with a fall start and a full season to play out at the top of an hour. It'll count 34 episodes by the end of the season, which is easily within the range of a painless cancellation. As for CBS's other comedies, Young Sheldon is the comedy breakout CBS needed to develop this year. The Big Bang Theory, Mom, and Life In Pieces are expected back, and that's all the network needs. CBS has made some interesting choices in the past, such as renewing The Odd Couple twice. Something similar could happen to Superior Donuts, but at this point it doesn't seem worth CBS's while to drag another low-rated sitcom to syndication. The quality of their pilots could be the determining factor, and that's not for me to try to predict. From what I see, it's Likely to be Canceled at this time. 
INSTINCT Since it's aired only one episode so far, Instinct is firmly on the bubble. Its 1.0 premiere rating is fine, but it is likely to fall from this data point going forward as we've seen in the past. S.W.A.T. is probably the safest newbie, with SEAL Team fighting and Instinct yet to prove itself as a contender. CBS has renewed midseason shows in the past, though the ones that come to mind were spinoffs (CSI: Cyber and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders). It shouldn't be included in a batch of early renewals, so I feel comfortable leaving it On the Bubble for now.

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Living Biblically’ Faces Certain Death

Jay R. Ferguson | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of March 12, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.87	+3%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.33	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+5%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.44	-16%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.27	-21%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.17	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.06	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.05	-15%
10	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-12%
-	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	--
-	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.00	-28%
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
14	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-16%
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.96	-27%
17	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.94	-19%
-	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-30%
22	Living Biblically	0.7 / 0.8 / 0.75	--
23	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-23%

LIVING BIBLICALLY It's not a surprise that the midseason series tanked in its debut. It was never expected to be in a position to succeed, as CBS's Mondays are lacking in strength under Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan's leadership, as well as the fact that midseason runs tend to be rough. With a 0.8 and 0.7 across two airings, the religious sitcom is already certain to be cancelled. There's no upside to its dismal performance, especially for an unowned show that is merely continuing a terrible 9:30 trend. It always seemed like its order was mostly a favor to The Big Bang Theory's Johnny Galecki, who EPs the Warner Bros. production, so the loss doesn't seem significant. Moreover, Superior Donuts is the favorite fractional sitcom that stands a chance to make it out of this season alive, and even that is very far from a sure thing. 
With the expectation of early CBS renewals coming soon, new predictions will be made for Superior Donuts and Criminal Minds in the next edition of the CBS R/C. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Could Go Either Way

"Criminal Minds" | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of February 23, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.92	+3%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.37	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+17%
4	NCIS	1.4 / 1.6 / 1.46	-15%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.29	-20%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.21	-15%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.18	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.09	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.07	-14%
10	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	--
11	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.01	-27%
-	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	-11%
13	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-15%
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.96	-27%
17	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.95	-19%
18	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.84	-30%
22	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-23%

CRIMINAL MINDS v. SEAL TEAM Criminal Minds is old, expensive, and only partly owned. Its ratings are just OK in the 10pm slot, and it's part of a disappointing 9-11 block on Wednesdays. It's currently down about 27% year-to-year, a relatively sharp decline that is due in part to its move from 9 to 10. Comparatively, SEAL Team is newer, less expensive, and 100% owned by CBS. The ratings for SEAL aren't strong for its slot and are less impressive than what S.W.A.T. has managed on Thursdays at 10, but it's still one of CBS's top dramas. Both of the Wednesday dramas could feasibly be renewed or cancelled this year, and they're not necessarily in competition, but I get the feeling that Wednesdays will need a shake-up. I'm more skeptical about Criminal Minds at this point and have decided to place it on the bubble. As always, its fate relies on negotiations between CBS and ABC Studios, which is always a risky place to be in. Cast members have come and gone in recent years, so overall costs and cast talks could be what brings the iconic procedural to an end this year after several spinoffs failed to carry on the legacy. CBS has benefitted from a long relationship with Criminal Minds, but they might now be in a place to prioritize their new blood and younger series with syndication prospects. SEAL Team remains likely to be renewed for now. The surprise success of the upcoming new drama Instinct could affect SEAL Team's fate going forward.
SCORPION Yes, it's CBS's second lowest-rated series on the air right now. No, it doesn't have a syndication deal at the moment. However, the Eye Network is never to be counted out when it comes to its ability to sell procedurals into syndication. Madam Secretary and NCIS: New Orleans recently solidified deals that will keep them on the air, which gives hope to Scorpion from the same 2014 class. While Person of Interest already had a syndication deal when its final season was announced, I can see Scorpion getting similar treatment with a benched 13-episode fifth season, which would give CBS more time to sell it and add episodes to the package. They could also renew it for a 22-episode fifth season and still bench it, similar to Elementary at present. Realistically, CBS does not bring it back to the fall schedule with its current ratings. However, if they can find midseason slots for shows like Elementary and Code Black with varied episode counts, it seems plausible that Scorpion can continue in some fashion while its afterlife opportunities are looked at. It seems unlikely for CBS to just drop the show completely after four seasons, when there isn't a recent precedent for that. As such, it's still likely to be renewed.

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘S.W.A.T.’ Likely to be Renewed

Shemar Moore ("S.W.A.T.") | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of December 28, 2017.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.89	-7%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.33	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.54	+2%
4	NCIS	1.4 / 1.6 / 1.43	-17%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.29	-20%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.15	-9%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.14	--
9	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.05	-25%
10	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.0 / 1.02	-18%
11	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	--
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.01	--
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	-14%
14	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.02	-10%
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.99	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.95	-27%
17	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-25%
-	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.94	--
19	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.91	-22%
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.84	-23%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-31%
22	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-24%

S.W.A.T. The new drama has averaged just over a 1.0 across eight airings. That's rather impressive when compared directly to CBS's other new dramas. Specifically, this looks rather good against SEAL Team, which airs an hour earlier on Wednesdays, has one of the network's biggest lead-ins, and has only done marginally better despite the help. Of course, Wisdom of the Crowd has turned less than favorable results on Sundays and was not given a full season's confidence by CBS. This leaves S.W.A.T. and SEAL Team in serious contention for renewal, and as it stands now they both seem viable. Compared to past Thursday at 10 occupants, the show is a notable improvement over Pure Genius,, Training Day, and Rush Hour. I've upgraded S.W.A.T. to Likely to be Renewed status due to its stability, good 10pm numbers and improvement of the time slot, and CBS's full season order. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: '9JKL' Likely to be Canceled

Linda Lavin, Mark Fuererstein ("9JKL") | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My current predictions are current as of October 31, 2017.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	Young Sheldon	- / 3.8 / 3.80	--
2	The Big Bang Theory	2.8 / 4.1 / 3.15	+1%
3	NCIS	1.4 / 1.6 / 1.45	-15%
4	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.41	-10%
5	9JKL	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.38	--
6	Bull	1.2 / 1.3 / 1.23	-14%
7	SEAL Team	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.20	--
8	Criminal Minds	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.11	-15%
9	NCIS: New Orleans	1.0 / 1.1 / 1.06	-10%
-	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 1.06	--
11	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 1.05	-14%
12	Hawaii Five-0	1.0 / 1.1 / 1.04	-9%
13	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.01	--
14	Blue Bloods	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.97	-22%
15	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.82	-32%
16	MacGyver	- / 0.8 / 0.81	-25%
17	Superior Donuts	- / 0.8 / 0.80	-32%
18	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.77	-18%

NCIS, NCIS: LA, NCIS: New Orleans, Bull I've decided to upgrade several reliable dramas to Certain to be Renewed status this week. These four shows continue to offer the most stability to the schedule. NCIS is the net's longest-running drama currently on the air, and it continues to rate highly as their #1 drama and #3 series overall. NCIS: New Orleans has impressed me with its ability to pull consistent 1.1s in the 10pm hour this season, with a light 10% decline y2y, and it looks stronger than the other dramas from its class: Scorpion and Madam Secretary. It will likely secure a syndication deal at some point due to its franchise association and CBS's master procedural-selling skills, which will make it much more valuable in the years to come. Lastly, Bull has maintained solid ratings this season and doesn't fall too much from its NCIS lead-in. It's shaping up to be a fairly good investment for the network going forward.

Criminal Minds, MacGyver While I'm still hesitant to claim these shows are near-certain to return in any way, I'm feeling generous this Halloween and have upgraded both to Likely to be Renewed territory. Criminal Minds has done better than I anticipated Wednesdays at 10, highlighting more of the weaknesses in SEAL Team and its inability to do much better in the earlier hour. MacGyver impressed with a slight uptick to a 0.9 on Friday, and even its string of 0.8s has been very consistent if nothing else this season. With so much uncertainty in CBS's new dramas, and the network already more or less expecting MacGyver to deliver what's it currently getting, it seems safe right now.

9JKL, Wisdom of the Crowd The two freshman series have been downgraded from the bubble to Likely to be Canceled status this week. 9JKL dropped significantly, as expected, to a 0.8 last night. It fell heavily from last week's episode (1.4) and from its Kevin Can Wait (1.2) lead-in last night. There doesn't seem to be much of an audience for it when it's scheduled without The Big Bang Theory. It's really dragging down the night, as evidenced by Superior Donuts (0.8) and Me, Myself & I (0.7). A positive is that it is owned by CBS, but I don't know how far that can ultimately take it if it remains fractional. Wisdom of the Crowd is looking weaker by the airing, with this week's episode bringing in a 0.7 rating, its lowest yet. It doesn't take advantage of a typically football-inflated night, while NCIS: LA has grown several times from it, suggesting viewers are rejecting the new drama in the line-up. CBS has yet to give it a backorder like they've done with SEAL Team, and that's perhaps indicative of a lack of long-term confidence. They have plenty of options with which to replace it, so I don't feel comfortable with its chances. 
Superior Donuts The second season premiere of the 2016-17 midseason comedy rated horribly: a 0.8 in the 9:00 hour, half an hour earlier than it was supposed to premiere up until a week ago. CBS was hopeful that an upgrade to the top of the hour would help it, but unfortunately there's no real upside to this result. 9JKL didn't do any better, and Me, Myself & I did even worse, but that's not good enough to justify Superior's second-to-last ranking across the network and a fractional season premiere. I truly think CBS made a bad decision in bringing back so many of these comedy players that weren't hits. The two hours on Monday really ought to be cut down to one again, and I don't know that Superior Donuts has a place in that alternative slate, or any future slate for that matter. It may be early to say, but I'm starting the show in Likely to be Canceled territory. 

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CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Young Sheldon' Starts Strong

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My current predictions are current as of September 29, 2017.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	- / 4.1 / 4.10	+32.2%
2	Young Sheldon	- / 3.8 / 3.80	--
3	Kevin Can Wait	- / 2.3 / 2.30	+42.9%
4	NCIS	- / 1.6 / 1.60	-7.0%
5	Me, Myself & I	- / 1.6 / 1.60	--
6	SEAL Team	- / 1.5 / 1.50	--
7	Bull	- / 1.3 / 1.30	-9.1%
8	Criminal Minds	- / 1.3 / 1.30	-6.5%
9	NCIS: New Orleans	- / 1.0 / 1.00	-15.2%
10	Scorpion	- / 1.0 / 1.00	-16.7%

The Big Bang Theory Status: Already Renewed
Currently in its 11th season, The Big Bang Theory has already guaranteed itself a 12th season to air in 2018-19 thanks to CBS's two-year renewal back in March. Could it be dethroned over the course of the season by its shiny new successor? That's likely to be the only interesting challenge it'll have this season, but one it may not mind losing. 
Young Sheldon Status: Likely to be Renewed The prequel-spinoff of The Big Bang Theory debuted to a strong and unprecedented 3.8 rating and 17 million viewers on Monday, holding on to 93% of the mother show's audience in the demo. This performance is nothing short of incredible to launch the fall season for CBS. The network has already given Young Sheldon a full-season order to reward it and to continue the good work. While this start is beyond great, it's too soon to say how the season will unfold. The series returns on Thursday, November 2 at 8:30pm and will face ABC's Grey's Anatomy, NBC's The Good Place, FOX's Gotham, and The CW's Supernatural. 
Kevin Can Wait Status: Likely to be Renewed In the Look Ahead article I wrote last week I outlined my concerns for the second season of the Kevin James-led sitcom. In short, with Leah Remini on board as a series regular and Erinn Hayes out, the show has a lot to prove to its core audience, as well as the new fans it seeks to gain by adding Remini as a controversial key player. The season premiere on Monday scored a very respectable 2.3 rating (-12% from its S1 premiere), which looks worse when you account for its mediocre 60% retention from Young Sheldon. Regardless of the inflated nature of premiere night, this is a strong number for the show and it will hope to retain as much of that audience as it can going into next week and the weeks following, especially when it must anchor Mondays again come November.
NCIS Status: Likely to be Renewed So far this season, NCIS remains the highest-rated drama series the network has. It has been CBS's #1 drama for years and continues to rank near the top across all of scripted television. The network can still use it as a launchpad for new shows, or continue to nurture the likes of a Bull. There's little reason to believe that the final season is upon us yet.
Me, Myself & I Status: Likely to be Renewed A 1.6 rating for a comedy on CBS is objectively fine in 2017, but this series stands a lot to lose in the coming weeks and in November when it has to compete without the major viewing benefits that The Big Bang Theory and Young Sheldon bring to the line-up. It may be the victim of a bad time slot, or an unlikely hero that actually helps keep up the back-end of the night. For now, there simply aren't enough data points to suggest it's not safe, but that could change as drastically as next week.

SEAL Team Status: Likely to be Renewed The new David Boreanaz-led military drama brought in a 1.5 rating on Wednesday with almost 10 million viewers. Compared to last fall's debuts, this lags behind Bull (2.2) and MacGyver (1.7), but exceeds the Thursday premiere of Pure Genius (1.0). Looking back, Criminal Minds earned a 1.9 for its Season 12 premiere last year in the same slot. Considering all of that data, it appears to be a decent start for an untested property in a nice time slot. If it holds on to most of that audience it should be fine going forward.
Bull Status: Likely to be Renewed One of CBS's two returning sophomore dramas, Bull returned to a 1.3 rating on Tuesday in its same time slot as last year. This result is down 40% from its series premiere and up 15% from its Season 1 finale (1.1). It's not a very encouraging number, but it is one of the stronger young properties CBS has to work with right now. Barring any kind of major collapse, the show and star Michael Weatherly should likely be around again next fall.
Criminal Minds Status: On the Bubble This show has been on a noticeable downward trend as it's aged and has faced cast changes and cost negotiations with ABC Studios. Its 1.3 rating on Wednesday night is respectable for 10pm, where it tied NBC's Chicago PD in the demo and beat ABC's Designated Survivor (1.1). Looking inward, it even beat Scorpion (1.0) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.0). However, the Season 13 premiere was down 32% from last year's premiere, when it aired in the 9pm hour, and saw a decline of 19% from the Season 12 finale. This is the second oldest series on CBS, and it's starting to show cracks. The network did not get rid of any veteran dramas last year, and my gut is telling me that this series might be vulnerable by May as CBS tries to phase it out. On top of costs and cast changes it has not been able to launch a successful spinoff, which could be detrimental to its future on CBS. How the other veterans perform this year could be helpful to clear up its future, but at the moment the Season 14 forecast is not easy to predict either way and likely won't be for the foreseeable future.
NCIS: New Orleans
Status: Likely to be Renewed The latest spinoff of the valuable NCIS franchise premiered to a 1.0 rating on Tuesday night, which was down 29% from its Season 3 premiere and down 10% from its Season 3 finale. This isn't good, but CBS may not be so quick to let go of its third wheel in the NCIS franchise just yet when it has had trouble grooming new properties to replace it. 
Scorpion Status: Likely to be Renewed Scorpion also returned to a 1.0 this week, which was down 33% from its Season 3 premiere and a 17% slide from its Season 3 finale. This looks worse than the slide for New Orleans despite similar results, and it stands as a single property apart from any franchise support. However, it also benefits from the argument that newer properties remain untested, and the competition for renewals might look different in a few weeks or by the end of the year. A big syndication deal like another show from its class, Madam Secretary, recently got could come in handy about now and make things a whole lot easier on it. I wouldn't be quick to assume this series isn't going to be back yet, and with the likelihood of something from Fridays being cancelled (I'm looking at the yet-to-premiere Hawaii Five-0), something in the realm of a Season 5 of Scorpion would be a decent fit for that night of lower expectations. 
Check back next week for updates, when MacGyver, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods, Wisdom of the Crowd, NCIS: LA, and 9JKL enter the table.