First Week Peak: Reacher Will Reach for the Top

The Ratings Junkie

Welcome to First Week Peak, a column which discusses shows that are about to premiere on Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Peacock, Hulu, and/or Apple TV. Each discussion concludes with a prediction for the show's weekly peak performance on their respective streaming service's U.S. trending chart, including a reader poll. Final results can be found in our weekly What's Trending On Streaming column. Let us know what you think in the comments!

Reacher (Season 4)
Premieres: August 12 on Prime Video
Genre: Action crime drama

Synopsis: Based on Lee Child novel "Persuader", Reacher hurtles into the dark heart of a vast criminal enterprise when trying to rescue an undercover DEA informant whose time is running out. There he finds a world of secrecy and violence--and confronts some unfinished business from his own past.

Going For It

Reacher will head into its fourth season premiere with a 9.1 Attention Score, which is the fourth-highest among Prime Video shows. The series' third season broke viewership records for the streaming service, with reportedly over 54 million viewers globally in the first 19 days since its premiere.

Going Against It

Reacher has not re-entered Prime Video's Top 10 list ahead of its return, which is somewhat surprising given how popular the series is. It's also unlikely the series will be able to top the viewership achievements of its third season given how high the bar is.

Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Prime Video

Overall Success Prediction: High

Renew/Cancel Prediction: Already Renewed

My Brilliant Career (Miniseries)
Premieres: August 13 on Netflix
Genre: Historical drama

Synopsis: Modern, rebellious Sybylla dreams only of writing. Choosing an exciting career over a safe marriage is easy -- until she falls in love unexpectedly.

Going For It

My Brilliant Career is getting international press coverage ahead of its premiere, and was highlighted as a top show to watch this week by The New York Times. Miniseries also tend to perform particularly well for Netflix, include Harlan Coben's new series I Will Find You.

Going Against It

My Brilliant Career is niche in concept, as it is based off a 1901 Australian novel. This is easily a title that could premiere quietly, but looks more poised for a breakout given the coverage it is receiving.

Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Netflix

Overall Success Prediction: High

Renew/Cancel Prediction: Miniseries

Tires (Season 3)
Premieres: August 13 on Netflix
Genre: Historical drama

Synopsis: At his father's auto shop, a hapless manager strives to improve customer service and drive profits while keeping his troublemaking cousin in line.

Going For It

Tires' second season spent three weeks on the weekly Top 10 list, peaking at #2. It notched a 13.6 Attention Score in the first 30 days following the release of its second season, a score that would be fourth-highest among Netflix shows today.

Going Against It

Tires is premiering on the same day as Netflix's new miniseries, My Brilliant Career. This will block one of these shows from having a chance to debut atop Netflix's weekly Top 10 chart. It also risks the chance of a third season slump, as its current Attention Score is just a 2.2, and audience reviews of the show overall have been mixed.

Daily Peak Prediction: #3 on Netflix

Overall Success Prediction: Medium

Renew/Cancel Prediction: Canceled