Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Law & Order
Line of Fire
Leans Renewal:
Newlyweds
The Rockford Files
Sunset PI
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Happy's Place
St. Denis Medical
Certain Renewal:
Law & Order: SVU
Saturday Night Live
Chicago Fire, Chicago Med, and Chicago PD: I've continued to float the possibility that one (or more) of Dick Wolf's Chicago series could find itself in trouble sooner than one might expect based on their ratings, and I continue to believe that it's a slight possibility. However, NBC truly has bigger issues at hand than the Chicagos, even among Dick Wolf's five series on the network. They have undergone cost-cutting measures, and continue to cut cast members at an alarming rate, but that seems to point towards NBC simply wanting to keep costs as low as they can to prolong the lives of their highest-rated shows, rather than towards anything truly worrisome for their future. With all of the Chicagos being over a decade old, it's hard to be entirely certain that NBC won't attempt to scale back the franchise at this point, but they're all near-locks, and start as likely renewals.
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins: I was always confident in its renewal for a second season, but a third season is going to be a taller task. Ratings for the Tracy Morgan sitcom never got outright ugly in season one, but its ratings trajectory certainly was ugly. It began its Monday run with a 0.37 in the demo, weeks after an NFL-inflated series premiere. That was an extremely strong launch for any sitcom, let alone on NBC. The problem was that it just kept dropping. It seemed to stabilize for a bit before it dropped to its lowest levels, eventually bottoming out at 0.19. By the end of the season, it was barely rating any better than Stumble, which was canceled by NBC after a single season. Reggie Dinkins comes from a creative team that NBC has a long history with - creator Robert Carlock and EP Tina Fey - but that wasn't enough to save Mr. Mayor beyond a single season. Reggie Dinkins is going to have to improve its performance if it doesn't want to meet the same fate as several other Carlock/Fey series. Its streaming performance also seemingly gave NBC little to be excited about, rarely charting on Peacock.
The good news for Reggie Dinkins is that weaker NBC sitcom ratings in spring don't always indicate continued struggles in the fall. St. Denis Medical had a similar concerning trajectory from premiere to finale (though with a longer season), and then returned significantly higher in fall, never matching its season one low during its second season. If Reggie Dinkins can perform similar, it absolutely has a chance at renewal, which would probably endanger one of the midseason comedies. That Reggie Dinkins got a fall slot to begin with is indication that NBC is trying to make it work, and if it returns solidly, they'll probably give it another shot. I do, however, have doubts that it will be able to replicate St. Denis Medical's astonishing ratings feat. It leans cancellation.
Happy's Place: Reba McEntire's latest sitcom has rarely been a ratings stand-out, but it has consistently been solid, especially for a show that airs on a traditionally lower-rated night. It's a pretty stable show, typically rating towards the higher end of the 0.2 mark. Its fairly modest ratings and meager streaming performance mean that the show never appears to be a complete lock for renewal, but it's certainly done well enough so far to continue justify renewing it. NBC could've easily moved the show down to 8:30 to provide new sitcom Newlyweds with the valuable local lead-in, but they continue to prioritize Happy's Place, and that bodes well for its continued renewal chances. While not a major hit, it's a likely renewal, and looks like it could become a reliable staple of Friday nights.
Law & Order: Predicting the cancellation of a Dick Wolf series isn't easy, but I don't have a very good feeling about the show's upcoming season. Its renewal already practically came down to the wire last season, being the last NBC series of the 2025-26 season to receive a renewal. NBC then announced it was moving to 10 PM, with new series The Traitors: New Blood and The Rockford Files clearly being their priority over the aged Law & Order continuation. Its ratings last season were definitely on the lower end of what's acceptable for an 8 PM series, but a renewal wasn't exactly a questionable decision. I said several times last season that I'd expect NBC to try a move to 10 PM before outright cancelling the series. Well, that time has come, and this season is going to be its first true test.
It's aired with a local lead-in since returning, and that's only barely held it above water in recent seasons. A 10 PM slot is much tougher, but it hasn't been left completely out to dry, as SVU is a very compatible and solid lead-in. Law & Order could hold up decently well and fix a slot that has been a problem for NBC the last few seasons. It could also prove to have been held up completely by the local lead-in, and sink like a stone. My guess is that the drops will be quite noticeable, and the show - which is easily Wolf's worst performer on streaming - will be given the axe. A lot also depends on next season's pilots and how well NBC;'s new series perform. Even an underperformance could be awarded with a renewal if the new shows perform worse, while the new shows being clear successes could pose a threat to Law & Order even if it holds up decently, given the limited space on the NBC schedule. It leans cancellation as we head into the season.
Law & Order: SVU: Outside of SNL, I would argue that SVU is the safest show on NBC heading into next season. While it's undergone the same cost-cutting measures and cast changes as the Chicagos, and is far older, its age seems to work in its favor a bit. It's such a classic staple of the NBC schedule that it is truly impossible to imagine an NBC without it. Its ratings remain strong, especially on streaming, and there's clearly a desire by NBC, Dick Wolf, and star Mariska Hargitay to keep the show running. It's hard to ever imagine NBC actually canceling it, so it will likely run as long as Wolf and Hargitay intend. Hargitay recently stated her belief that the show will make it to 30 seasons, which is now just two seasons away. I share that belief, and hold the belief that she won't want to stop making the show for a while past that. SVU is safe this season, and probably for a while after, too. It's a certain renewal.
Line of Fire: NBC's sole new fall drama has been a clear priority for the network in its early fall promo push, and with repeats scheduled on Friday nights for the first month of the season, it's clear that they very much want it to work. The issue is that the post-Voice slot in nowhere near as lucrative as it once was. While linear ratings are certainly not the end-all, be-all, it does help to impress out of the starting gate, and I just sense that Line of Fire's time slot is going to hinder it. The Voice is far weaker than it's ever been, and 10 PM remains a difficult time slot to launch a show in, with shows in the slot typically limited to retaining a portion of its lead-in, rather than ever growing from it. With The Voice dipping as low as 0.18 last season, we could see some genuinely ugly ratings for Line of Fire very early in the season. It would need a strong streaming performance to make up for that, and it seems to be a struggle for the non-Dick Wolf series on Peacock. I'm certainly not writing the show off, it has plenty of time to change my mind, but my initial instinct is a leans cancellation prediction.
Newlyweds: Of the three new shows on NBC's fall schedule, sitcom Newlyweds has received the smallest promotional push so far, but there is a good explanation for it: it premieres a month after the other two series, giving NBC plenty of time to catch up on an ad campaign. It's hard to imagine that NBC has the highest of expectations for a multi-cam airing at 8:30 on Friday, and they're famously willing to give second chances to new sitcoms, so I do think Newlyweds starts out with a solid chance at renewal. It's surely more compatible with Happy's Place than Stumble was, so if it can match its lead-in reasonably well, it'll be in good shape for at least a second season. It's hard to be too confident about it months before its premiere, but it'll start with a leans renewal prediction.
The Rockford Files: One of NBC's two new scripted shows on their midseason schedule, The Rockford Files already has a time slot waiting for it. It's going to take over The Traitors: New Blood's Thursday at 8 PM slot, becoming a rare new NBC series to debut at 8 PM. That honor's mostly been reserved for new comedies in recent years, with dramas Chicago Med and Law & Order having a stranglehold on the 8 PM drama slots, and The Voice only recently scaling back to an hour and giving up its 8 PM slot on Mondays. It's a sign of confidence in the series that NBC has moved Law & Order to 10 PM to give it the best chance of success. With a well-known lead in David Boreanaz and a familiar IP, they're right to have high expectations for the show. Not all reboot series have been successful, though, and this is the sort of show that may start high and decline as time goes on. However, I think it's the more likely success of NBC's two new drama series, and it leans renewal.
Saturday Night Live: Do I really need to elaborate here? SNL is NBC's highest-rated show and a touchstone of American culture. As long as there's an NBC, there will likely be an SNL, just as Lorne Michaels intended. It's a certain renewal.
St. Denis Medical: After a strong start, St. Denis Medical began to look shaky at the end of season one, before a strong rebound in season two. Its streaming performance remains the strongest of any NBC comedy, and NBC continues to rely on it as a lead-in for sophomore comedy Reggie Dinkins and, starting next year, new sitcom Sunset PI. I've seen very little reason to doubt St. Denis Medical, and it's easily NBC's most successful comedy since The Good Place. This show has a less limited premise, and can easily last much longer - potentially becoming the first NBC sitcom to reach six seasons since Justin Spitzer's own Superstore. It's a likely renewal, but like with the Chicagos, a quick upgrade to certain renewal could be in order if it returns as solidly as expected.
Sunset PI: Of all the shows I'm predicting today, Sunset PI is the one I'm least certain about. It's the one farthest out from premiering, and a lot of questions remain. As a bottom-of-the-hour comedy, its performance will rely on how well St. Denis Medical continues to perform, and it's also very possible that it could find itself competing against Reggie Dinkins for a single spot on the schedule. NBC was said to be quite high on this comedy throughout the development stage, so I'm inclined to expect them to pick it over Reggie Dinkins if it comes down to it, so long as it performs well enough and shows some encouraging signs of strength on streaming. It's very much a tossup, as any new show really is before it's even premiered, but I would expect it to be renewed at this point. It leans renewal, but is the most vulnerable of the four comedies currently predicted as renewals.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
