First Week Peak: Predictions for The Varnell Hill Show, Chad Powers, and The Gentlemen

Welcome to First Week Peak, a column which discusses shows that are about to premiere on Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Peacock, Hulu, and/or Apple TV. Each discussion concludes with a prediction for the show's weekly peak performance on their respective streaming service's U.S. trending chart, including a reader poll. Final results can be found in our weekly What's Trending On Streaming column. Let us know what you think in the comments!

The Varnell Hill Show (Season 1)
Premieres: September 1 on Paramount+
Genre: Workplace comedy
Synopsis: Paramount+ today unveiled first look photos and announced the premiere date for The Varnell Hill Show, a new half-hour workplace comedy executive produced by Martin Lawrence and Bentley Kyle Evans, and starring and executive produced by Tommy Davidson as the unforgettable talk show host first introduced in the iconic sitcom Martin. The eight-episode first season will make its global debut on Paramount+ with two episodes on Tuesday, September 1, followed by one new episode every Tuesday through October 13.

Going For It

Martin is well-remembered for its ongoing stint in syndication, particularly on Paramount-owned cable networks. The Varnell Hill Show is a clear attempt to expand the universe by a company focused on IPs now more than ever.


Going Against It

While all five seasons of Martin are available to stream on Paramount+, Peacock, and Netflix, it has not made a Top 10 appearance on any of those three streaming services on any single day in 2026. Spinoff The Varnell Hill Show would have to outperform the original series on Paramount+ to chart, which could be a tough ask given Martin has 132 episodes to The Varnell Hill Show's soon-to-be two. Paramount+ is also hardly known for their comedy originals; even a Frasier revival couldn't last more than 20 episodes. The Varnell Hill Show will be Paramount+'s lone original comedy upon its premiere. 


Daily Peak Prediction: #8 on Paramount+
Overall Success Prediction: Low
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Cancel

Chad Powers (Season 2)
Premieres: September 3 on Hulu
Genre: Sports comedy
Synopsis: Eight years after an unforgivable mistake nukes his promising college football career, hotshot quarterback Russ Holliday tries to resurrect his dreams by disguising himself as Chad Powers - a talented oddball who walks on to the struggling South Georgia Catfish. 

Going For It

Chad Powers' six-episode first season spent eight weeks within Hulu's Top 15 chart, which is an impressive feat given it was only dropping new episodes for the first five of those weeks. It stayed on the chart for two weeks after its finale, and made another appearance in January. It will help that it is dropping all six episodes at once this time around, whereas only two were released at the time of the series premiere. Chad Powers also held a 3.2 Attention Score per Television Stats on Friday, August 28, which is already enough to be the 14-highest for a Hulu or FX show.


Going Against It

Despite Chad Powers' respectable stay within the Top 15, it only spent a single day at #1 in its first week. Its peak Attention Score in its first season was a 19.2, which does not compete with the 36.7 currently held by Adults. Of course, there is time for Chad Powers and Adults to potentially meet each other halfway.


Daily Peak Prediction: #3 on Hulu
Overall Success Prediction: Medium
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Cancel

The Gentlemen (Season 2)
Premieres: September 3 on Netflix
Genre: Action comedy
Synopsis: When aristocratic Eddie inherits the family estate, he discovers that it's home to an enormous weed empire -- and its proprietors aren't going anywhere. 

Going For It

The Gentlemen premiered at #2 on Netflix's weekly Top 10 TV Shows chart in the United States for the week of 3/4/24 - 3/10/24, rose to #1 the following week (its first full week), and spent six total weeks on the chart. The eight-episode first season had 1.21 billion minutes viewed within its first four days of release. It had the third-most-minutes watched for all TV shows in March 2024, with 4.67 billion minutes viewed


The Gentlemen also holds a 10.1 Attention Score per Television Stats, which is the sixth-highest currently for a Netflix show even before the second season premieres. It peaked at an remarkably high 82.5 Attention Score when the first season dropped.


Going Against It

Nearly 30 months have passed since the first season of The Gentlemen was released. Given The Gentlemen only has eight episodes to its name, it's possible some first season viewers have already forgotten about the show, which could cause a sophomore slump. 


Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Netflix
Overall Success Prediction: High
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Already Renewed


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