I'm taking a look each week at some of the major categories for the Emmy Awards. Here's a look at the races for Lead Actor & Actress in a Comedy Series!
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Wonder Man (Disney+)
Steve Carell, Rooster (HBO)
Matthew Rhys, Widow's Bay (Apple TV)
Jason Segel, Shrinking (Apple TV)
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (HBO)
This is a tough category to predict. With recent winners either ineligible (Seth Rogen) or not nominated (Jeremy Allen White), it feels pretty wide open. Right now, I'm leaning towards Matthew Rhys because I feel like Widow's Bay definitely has some heat going into the awards. We'll get to its chances of winning Outstanding Comedy Series in a couple weeks and Kate O'Flynn will have to overcome Hannah Einbinder to win Supporting Actress so Lead Actor feels like the easiest path to a win. But there is a sentimental factor here. Martin Short has been nominated every year for Only Murders in the Building and has not won. After losing his wife to cancer over a decade ago, he just recently suffered the loss of his daughter. As a beloved figure in the industry, it seemed like it was finally his time until Widow's Bay exploded. He still absolutely has a chance. The rest are less likely. Steve Carell has never won an Emmy, including for The Office (sigh) but I don't think this is his year. Jason Segel might have had a path to a win in a year without some of these other narratives. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II was a surprise nominee for his limited then renewed then cancelled Disney+ show but the nomination is the win for him I believe.
Will Win: Matthew Rhys, Widow's Bay
Power Ranking the Rest by Chance of a Win:
2. Short 3. Segel 4. Carell 5. Abdul-Mateen II
Should Win: Steve Carell, Rooster
Should Have Been Nominated: Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX/Hulu)
Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback (HBO)
Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max)
Jean Smart has gone four for four so far with Emmy wins for Hacks and enters her final Emmy campaign for the show with a chance to go an unprecedented five for five. Right now, she's a pretty overwhelming favorite but not a complete lock in the way Noah Wyle is for the Lead Actor in a Drama category. That has less to do with Smart and more to do with the competition from Lisa Kudrow, who is now nominated in a third different decade for The Comeback. It seemed like it could be a real fight back in the spring but now it does feel like the votes are coalescing around Smart for one final Hacks Emmy win. Still, I wouldn't count Kudrow out. The other three are not nearly as likely. Elle Fanning was well-liked in Margo's Got Money Troubles but she won't overpower Smart or Kudrow. Quinta Brunson is the only one to break up Smart's streak (winning the one year when Hacks was not eligible) but she's more relegated to perennial nominee now. Ayo Edebiri hung on for a nomination even after The Bear dropped off in a lot of categories but the show is weak overall so she doesn't really have a chance.
Will Win: Jean Smart, Hacks
Power Ranking the Rest by Chance of a Win:
2. Kudrow 3. Fanning 4. Brunson 5. Edebiri
Should Win: Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles
Should Have Been Nominated: Wendi McLendon-Covey, St. Denis Medical
