Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.14, 0.11-0.18)
Likely Cancellation:
The Hunting Party (0.15, 0.10-0.17)
Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.21, 0.11-0.61)
The Wall (0.16, 0.12-0.19)
Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.25, 0.20-0.27)
Likely Renewal:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.68, 0.28-1.38)
The Voice (0.24, 0.24-0.42)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.33, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Law & Order: SVU (0.29, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.64, 0.43-0.91)
Already Renewed:
Happy's Place (0.24, 0.18-0.26)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.37)
One Chicago: NBC seems primed for a shakeup next season, with eight pilots in development for next season - the most in several years. One of the most notable titles among those is What the Dead Know, a Wolf Productions series that counts the TV titan as an executive producer. NBC hasn't had a scripted Dick Wolf project in development outside of his current Chicago and Law & Order franchise in a while, and it does raise the question of whether NBC is looking to move forward with Wolf while also not wanting to rely two much on two aging franchises. The Chicagos are undoubtedly important shows for NBC, and they're reliable hits. Med and Fire currently rank as their #2 and #3 scripted series (only behind a heavily-inflated Reggie Dinkins) in L+SD ratings, and PD is just outside the top five at #6 (ranking a single hundredth behind SVU). In recently-released multiplatform+7 ratings, only four series on NBC rank among the top twenty programs on broadcast TV in total viewers - three are Chicago series (and the other is fellow Dick Wolf series SVU). Only two series crack the top twenty in the demo, with Fire sneaking onto the list at #20 (SVU pulls ahead of it in this metric). On a rebuilding NBC, it's clear these shows are still going to have a role. I don't expect any of them to be replaced by a new Dick Wolf pilot. I don't see any of the Chicago trio as being at risk this season, but I do think Chicago Med is the closest to being at risk, just because it's less of a money-maker than the other two due to its lack of a syndication deal. Still, this lineup - while successful - poses an interesting challenge for NBC. It takes one entire night off the table for them, and with both Sunday and Tuesday also off-limits due to sports, they have so little room to even try to rebuild. With sitcoms performing quite well on Monday and respectably enough to keep going on Friday, 8 PM slots are pretty much sealed off, and launching a new drama out of an incompatible sitcom isn't really ideal either. 10 PM is a tough time to launch a new drama. While we've seen High Potential launch to great success at such an hour on ABC, NBC hasn't seen any new dramas premiering successfully in that hour in several years, despite consistently trying new dramas in that hour. It doesn't feel logical to expect the Chicagos to be canceled this season or next or any time all that soon, but NBC has boxed themselves into a corner here by relying too heavily on franchises that they have to air together, and they're no longer able to be flexible and give their new shows a chance to air in prime slots, or behind prime lead-ins. All of their top dramas air together, and it leaves their new shows out in the cold, relying on a declining Voice to boost them at 10 PM. I can't see NBC breaking up this Chicago trio, as they're stronger together than they were apart. So what does NBC do? I doubt much changes next season for the Chicagos, but NBC has to figure out a way to both keep this lineup together and figure out a way to schedule their new shows in a way that doesn't instantly doom them. With the Chicagos' episode orders starting to get smaller, it's possible we could see them ending early for the season and having NBC try to launch some thing on Wednesdays midseason. Or maybe it's time to consider that an ending point may be within sight for the franchise, even if it's still a few years away. They're very old, expensive, their linear ratings are cooling off a bit, while their streaming performances aren't that impressive, mostly thanks to Peacock being no match for their former streaming hub at Hulu. The end will surely not be this season, but NBC has. lot to consider with how they schedule next session if they want to find some new successful dramas instead of relying on decades-old programs, because they're the only network that's been utterly unable to do so in recent years. The Chicagos remain certain renewals, but remain a scheduling headache despite their success.
Law & Order: The Chicagos are not at risk of ending all that soon or being replaced by next season's Dick Wolf pilot, but Law & Order might be. Its ratings aren't all that strong, especially for a show airing at 8 PM. The local lead-in is still a powerful factor, and it only tops Happy's Place among NBC's 8 PM series. Every other Dick Wolf show is also higher-rated, so if any of them will go, Law & Order will be next. there's also the matter of its streaming performance, which is weaker than the other shows, too. It's Wolf's only NBC series not in the top twenty in total viewers in MP+7 ratings this season, and it averaged 6 million viewers for the first month of 2026 - more than a million less than the other Wolf shows. It is, still, higher-rated than the non-Wolf shows on NBC, and while beating Brilliant Minds and The Hunting Party doesn't sound impressive at all, it lost to both of them in the season rankings for the 2024-25 TV season (with 6.7 million viewers in MP+35, compared to 7.5 million for Brilliant Minds and 6.9 million for The Hunting Party). With just a modest showing so far this season, NCB may be willing to part with Law & Order while still trying to keep Dick Wolf happy by replacing it with another show from his production company. It would be a similar move to CBS axing their FBI spinoffs last year while ordering a different Wolf series. I still think a renewal is much more likely than cancellation, because its ratings are still fairly decent, but this is the weakest link of the Dick Wolf shows. I think its current performance warrants a time slot downgrade, if NBC does need a slot for a new show. Putting a new Dick Wolf series at 8 PM and Law & Order at 10 is one way to give a new show a good shot at thriving while still not taking too much of a risk. Law & Order will drop at 10, undoubtedly, but it won't take too much for it to still improve on The Hunting Party. That's a way to shake things up a bit without outright canceling a show that's still doing OK. I'd expect NBC to want to give this show a bit of advance notice that it's ending, seeing how it was canceled last-minute before and Dick Wolf was none too pleased, and he's just gotten more important to them in the years since it happened. Still, I don't think a cancellation is entirely off the table. With five drama pilots lined up, I expect at least two or three to be picked up. NBC is unlikely to trim their comedy blocks, and they also have some reality projects filming soon tho would make them primed for a fall launch. They seem to want to change things up a bit, and Law & Order is the sort of middling player that networks are willing to part with when they're trying to turn things around. Dick Wolf will likely be enough to keep it around, but a move to 10 PM or even midseason may be in order so that these new NBC pilots finally have a chance. Law & Order still leans renewal, no more or no less.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | St. Denis Medical | Reggie Dinkins | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | The Hunting Party | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Stumble | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sat | Encores | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Basketball | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
