Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation:
The Greatest Average American (0.25, 0.18-0.28)
Leans Renewal:
RJ Decker (0.19, 0.13-0.23)
The Rookie (0.25, 0.19-0.29)
The Bachelorette and Bachelor Franchise: ABC got themselves into the PR nightmare of a lifetime when they and producers of the Bachelorette selected Mormon Wives star Taylor Frankie Paul as the new Bachelorette. ABC was relying on drama and Paul's quasi-celebrity status to bring in viewers, and it has backfired tremendously. Opposition to Paul's selection as the Bachelorette lead was present from the very start, but it truly blew up in the week leading up to her season premiering, as production of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives was suspended over allegations of another domestic dispute between Paul and her ex, recurring Mormon Wives cast member Dakota Mortensen. That led to questions about whether The Bachelorette would air as-scheduled, but ABC remained mum and Paul mostly continued to promote the show on the talk show circuit, save for a canceled Tonight Show appearance. Cinnabon pulled its planned partnership with the show over the allegations soon after, and that was the first sign that this season could really be in trouble. Then, the other shoe dropped. A video from the 2023 assault that led to Paul's arrest was released, and it was incredibly damning. Criticism became widespread, and it became impossible for ABC to spin Paul's Bachelorette season as some sort of fairytale romance, regardless of how the season played out. They pulled the plug soon after TMZ released the video, thus ending days of speculation about how ABC would handle this fast-approaching, controversy-plagued season.
The show was already put on pause in 2024, after a season of declining ratings and behind-the-scenes turmoil, which saw the exits of several members of the production staff. It was also a season with a very controversial ending, as a truly ugly split between the lead and her final rose recipient turned even uglier, as his past criminal record (including allegations of trespassing, burglary, and violating a restraining order) came to light. This show now has a history of casting people that really have no business being cast, and in both cases, it's been a PR disaster for them. In Taylor Frankie Paul's case, ABC and production can not possibly proclaim that they didn't know any better about her. The arrest records were public knowledge, the aftermath of the arrest was covered on the show Paul was famous for, which is a Disney production. All of this was so avoidable, but ABC decided it was worth it to play with fire, and so they got burnt. And so now, The Bachelorette's pause will go on longer - possibly indefintiely - and ABC is without anything to air for two hours on Sundays. ABC skipped the traditional winter season of The Bachelor for nothing, and they have nothing to show for it.
This is a huge financial loss for ABC, too. ABC is expected to lose at least $30 million for this season (per THR, though Forbes estimates losses at a higher $60 million) if it never airs. There are also threats of lawsuits across the board. Some say Paul will sue ABC, others say ABC will sue Paul, others say that the men of this season could sue ABC and the show. It's a huge financial burden for ABC, unlike any headache this franchise has ever caused for them (and it has caused many). If the franchise does indeed continue, hopefully this will make ABC and its producers a bit more cautious about who they cast, and maybe they put a bit more effort into those background checks and avoid hiring any reality stars with high-profile domestic violence arrests to lead the cast.
Does this mark the end of The Bachelorette? Is it one controversy too many? Consider me doubtful. This is not exactly a franchise with a sterling reputation. It often makes headlines for messy controversies. Bachelor in Paradise had a high-publicized scandal back in 2017, in which there was a "sexual encounter" involving a cast member who was too drunk to consent. Production was shut down briefly, before an investigation cleared the show and it was allowed to continue. While that was a different era, pre-#MeToo, it would've still been easy for ABC to just cut their losses with that show, as it was only at the very start of its fourth season. Instead, the show remains on the air to this day, planning to enter its eleventh season this summer. It's not the exact same situation, but if ABC stuck with Bachelor in Paradise back in the day, I doubt this will be enough to give them hesitation about ordering future seasons of The Bachelorette, The Bachelor, or any other spinoffs. Bachelor in Paradise, as I just mentioned, is planning to move ahead with season eleven, and reports say that men from Paul's season are still in consideration for casting on the season despite appearing on a season that never aired. That sure doesn't sound like a network that's ready to move on from this franchise. The shows still rate fairly well (though ratings have declined in recent years, hence why even the franchise's two staples have been airing less frequently lately), and such a controversy is probably not going to happen again. I expect ABC will want to move on from this mess and move forward, probably with a new season of The Bachelor next winter. If any shows are likely to be impacted by this scandal, I think it may be the Golden franchises, with ABC opting to dial back on the franchise a bit rather than scrapping it altogether, and canceling the lowest-rated shows in the franchise (which already looked like a real possibility before this controversy). How ABC moves forward with The Bachelorette will be interesting, as it's been years since it's aired in its traditional summer slot. Will ABC continue cycling between The Bachelor and Bachelorette in winter and spring? Or will The Bachelorette return to summer in 2027, perhaps airing in Bachelor in Paradise's stead (as it did in 2024)? ABC has a lot to figure out here, but I'm confident that they won't be moving on from this franchise - even if they probably should.
RJ Decker: When RJ Decker premiered a few weeks ago, I expressed initial cautious optimism about it. Its premiere rating was OK, if unexceptional, and its streaming performance seemed solid enough. I expected ABC would at least give it a chance, hoping it could see growth in season two like Will Trent. If I'm being honest, my optimism is fading. Last week, RJ Decker faced competition from a very highly-watched final of the World Baseball Classic, which drew more than a 2.6 in the demo and 10 million viewers. It was very tough competition, I full get that. Still, RJ Decker's huge week-to-week drop is incredibly concerning to me. The show slid from a 0.23 the week before to just a 0.13 the week after, the lowest rating of any ABC scripted show this season (tying Grey's Anatomy, which has a whole lot more working in its favor). I'm not going to downgrade RJ Decker for a poor rating against a major sporting event. I'm going to give it a chance to improve next week. But it raises a lot of concerns. It lost to NCIS: Sydney, which it beat the past two weeks. It had the largest week-to-week drop of any show, twice as bad as Will Trent and High Potential (which both looked as shaky as they have all season, but still pretty respectable). It was just a really bad night, and a terrible look after its surprising week two increase. Linear ratings aren't the only place where RJ Decker is looking concerning. It also seems to be struggling on streaming. It's the worst streaming performer of all of ABC's dramas on Hulu, never even peaking in the top five after its second or third episode. It seems like a lot of the people who sampled it on Hulu after the pilot gave up on it, as it ranked #1 initially (this is a common trend on Hulu, which we often see with new ABC and FX series). Multiplatform data from Nielsen suggests an MP+7 premiere audience of 8.1 million viewers, which is already lower than High Potential (which is no surprise, as it rates way above any other ABC series), The Rookie, and Will Trent, and slightly above 9-1-1. It's also a bit above 9-1-1: Nashville's premiere audience (7.8 million), and that she was obviously renewed. Again, RJ Decker has seemed to majorly decline on streaming since the premiere, so I'll stay on the lookout for multiplatform data for future episodes to either prove or disprove that. For now, I'm going to keep RJ Decker as a renewal prediction, because I'm not comfortable only downgrading it based on a poor showing against sports and a hunch that its streaming ratings have dropped. However, its leans renewal prediction is already feeling very shaky, and a downgrade is very much a possibility in the coming weeks.
ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness:
The "First Four" round has concluded, and we now have our Elite Eight for the 2026 ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness. It was a very tough, close fight between ABC's two new dramas, but 9-1-1: Nashville emerged victorious, narrowly scraping out a victory over RJ Decker. It'll now face #1 seed Scrubs as the competition really gets underway. In a matchup of veterans, The Rookie defeated Grey's Anatomy by a pretty impressive margin. It'll now face sitcom Shifting Gears, the #2 seed. In both matchups we've seen so far, the favorite won. We'll see if 9-1-1: Nashville or The Rookie can keep up their momentum and deliver upsets in round two. This round will also feature last year's champion, Abbott Elementary, facing off against tough competition in 9-1-1. It's expected to be the closest matchup of the tournament, with the shows being the #4 and #5 seed. We also have gargantuan delayed hit High Potential facing its Tuesday night lead-in, Will Trent. Voting will be open for the next week, as our readers have a chance to pick their overall favorite ABC series currently on the air.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | American Idol | The Rookie | ||||||
| Tues | Will Trent | High Potential | RJ Decker | |||||
| Wed | Scrubs | Abbott Elementary | The Greatest Average American | Shark Tank | ||||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | 9-1-1: Nashville | Grey's Anatomy | |||||
| Fri | Celebrity Wheel of Fortune | 20/20 | ||||||
| Sat | NBA Saturday Primetime | |||||||
| Sun | The Wonderful World of Disney | |||||||
