Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.7, 0.4-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)
Likely to be Canceled
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Real O'Neals (1.0, 0.8-1.2)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Toss-Up
Likely to be Renewed
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.1-1.5)
Modern Family (2.3, 2.0-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.6, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.3, 1.1-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 1.9-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.2, 1.1-1.4)
The Middle (1.6, 1.4-1.8)
Speechless (1.7, 1.3-2.0)
*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7
Agents of SHIELD: This week, Agents of SHIELD hit a new low of 0.6, a number that has only been hit by an original scripted series Monday-Thursday this season on ABC by very low-rated Conviction. While it is not certain that it will be canceled, as this is just one week of that rating, and it is Marvel owned, who might want a short final season, it has become unlikely enough that it is no longer a toss-up.
Fresh Off the Boat: ABC did something odd this week. They aired an original episode of Fresh Off the Boat on Wednesday at 8:00, leading into a new episode of Speechless. It ended up working out surprisingly well, with Fresh Off the Boat getting a 1.5. That's not much lower than what The Middle is getting leading off Tuesdays. I don't know why ABC did this, but it showed that Fresh Off the Boat is not as weak as it has seemed this season, so now I think it is certain to be renewed.
Dr. Ken: After getting all 0.8-0.9s in the fall, Dr. Ken suddenly looked better when it returned in January, hitting a 1.1. I was impressed, but also skeptical, as its lead-in Last Man Standing, went up from the 1.1-1.2s it was hitting in the fall to a 1.5. The next week provided the answer to the question of whether it was just the lead-in or not. With Last Man Standing down to 1.3, still higher than its fall numbers, but lower than the previous week, Dr. Ken resumed hitting its fall numbers, with a 0.9. It looks like it was all the lead-in getting Dr. Ken to 1.1. That 69% retention is worse than the 73-82% retention of its previous episodes that season, so it remains firmly in likely to be canceled.
Last Man Standing: As I mentioned when talking about Dr. Ken, Last Man Standing went up to a 1.5 when it returned in January. It then went down to a 1.3, still above all of its fall ratings. If it wasn't for the Tim Allen contract negotiations that occur every season, this show would be certain to be renewed, easily. However, with that factor, it will have to keep up the 1.3-1.5s for a while longer for me to be certain.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!