Hey guys, I'm Alan from the TV Ratings Guide Weekly posts, and this season I'll be doing the renewal and cancellation predictions for FOX scripted shows. My preseason predictions are below.
Correction: The Simpsons has already been renewed.
Certain Renewal
- Empire
- Scream Queens
- Family Guy
- The Simpsons (Renewed)
- Gotham
Likely Renewal
- Brooklyn Nine-Nine
- The Last Man on Earth
- Grandfathered
Bubble
Likely Cancellation
- Bob's Burgers
- Sleepy Hollow
- The Grinder
Certain Cancellation
Let's take a look at the newbies first:
Scream Queens: FOX is making this show its favorite newbie, giving it the most backing and promotion, similar to ABC's The Muppets or NBC's Blindspot, and to some extent, CBS's Supergirl. It's also the buzziest "original" new fall show. How the comedies do at 8 is probably irrelevant as Scream Queens will have the ability to self start. Even if it underperforms, it is bound to be above FOX's average, therefore, it is certain to be renewed. I'm thinking along the lines of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. with a lower premiere, but its shorter episode order prevents it from falling too low.
Minority Report: It seems very compatible with its lead in, Gotham, another procedural based on prior source material, but that show suffered from a spring drop caused in part by unfavorable audience reaction. Minority Report has the same problem as people are aware of the show, but they do not feel compelled to watch it. Especially because of the difficult competition in the slot, it will be hard to build an audience. I put it as a toss-up because I believe that the built-in concept from the movie and the compatibility with Gotham still gives Minority Report a decent chance to succeed.
Rosewood: From the start when Rosewood was picked up and placed in the Wednesday 8 PM slot, most thought it was doomed to fail. When FOX decided to keep Empire in its slot, it was a sign that they thought it would not be worth it to move Empire for Rosewood. Another point is that Rosewood is a very generic procedural, and I'm guessing Morris Chestnut's fans will not be impressed. Just to point it out though, Morris Chestnut recently had a leading role in The Perfect Guy which performed similarly at the box office as No Good Deed which had Taraji P. Henson as the leading lady.
Grandfathered: Grandfathered seems to have the 2nd most potential as a comedy rookie this fall. That's not saying much because the comedy slate for the networks overall is weak, but I think it manages to pull respectable numbers in a very hard, competitive slot.
The Grinder: Unlike its leadin, The Grinder has considerably less buzz while the showrunner change is not encouraging. Rob Lowe is not really a big draw as Parks and Recreation has been low rated throughout its run. I doubt that FOX will renew The Grinder unless it somehow manages to be a very good match with Grandfathered.
And then FOX's Empire veterans:
Empire: CANCELLED... after six seasons and a movie. Just kidding of course, but I would not be surprised if Empire gets there. Empire's massive ratings = certain renewal.
Family Guy and The Simpsons: Family Guy and The Simpsons are both getting renewed because they are still above average and it's not like FOX has the inventory nor the depth to replace them and form a stable night. They'll bounce back mostly in the Fall because of massive football leadins. Hopefully FOX has learned how to schedule Sundays better this season because the night looked weak in the Spring.
Gotham: Despite the spring drop, Gotham was FOX's #2 drama by a wide margin, and it will remain comfortably above the average barring a collapse. Gotham may no longer be a hit, but it's not going anywhere.
Brooklyn Nine-Nine: Brooklyn Nine-Nine's move behind The Simpsons allowed it to have a sophomore bounce, and the decision to leave it there is a good sign. If it follows the same okay, not great retention from The Simpsons, it will be renewed.
Last Man on Earth: The 2.4 premiere was very surprising and promising, but the drop after a couple episodes left the ratings at a renewable yet unspectacular level. Its fall ratings will be the sign whether it can grow to its potential or fall flat. The football ratings boosting the entire night should help it.
Bones and Sleepy Hollow: I'm predicting that either one of the dramas on Thursdays will be renewed or both are cancelled. The competition on Thursday is hard, but FOX's expectations for its Thursdays are not high. I gave Bones a slight edge because it should hold up better, and it seemed a tad bit stronger due to its tough timeslot. Sleepy Hollow is entering is third season, but its shortened seasons makes it so that it will likely take at least three seasons to get to syndication. Sleepy Hollow has had a bad trend and continuing that trend in the move to Thursday will get it cancelled.
Bob's Burgers: FOX's addition of live action comedies to Sundays has left Bob's Burgers in the cold with a 7:30 timeslot. I'm not sure what "cancelled" would mean because of the whole animation production cycle situation, but I'll treat it as a regular show at least for preseason predictions.
What do you think about the predictions? Please leave your own predictions in the comments!
