The ABC Renew/Cancel is back after a long summer, as ABC begins to roll out its regular season lineup. This week, it's an in-depth look at the sole scripted debut so far, RJ Decker, plus some more marveling at the remarkable performance of Dancing with the Stars.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
RJ Decker
Leans Cancellation:
Leans Renewal:
RJ Decker: We still don't have an official ratings report for RJ Decker's premiere, but one thing is consistent in the few reports we have received: despite a huge lead-in, the show returned with a series-low viewership of just 2.78 million. That's down nearly a million viewers from its series premiere, and only its second time below three million viewers. This is despite 6.8 million tuning in to the Dancing with the Stars episode that aired just before it, and a heavy promo campaign over the summer that included consistent repeat airings of the show over the off-season. The premiere's 18-49 demo rating is less certain. Some sources (such as TVSeries Finale) list it at a 0.40 premiere. That would be a series high by a wide margin, which wouldn't square up with its decline in total viewers, though it is possible it's true - after all, it has a much different lead-in than it had in season one, one that skews younger than their Tuesday procedurals. Other sources point to a 0.24 launch for RJ Decker - that'd still be a series high, but it's much more realistic. That would be 17% retention - which is utterly horrific, while the 0.40 would be 28% retention, which itself isn't exactly strong.
Regardless of the still-unclear premiere rating, there are plenty of other factors suggesting that RJ Decker is probably not long for this world. ABC is confirmed to have ordered just seven episodes for this second season, a slight decrease from season one. High Potential aired seven episodes behind DWTS in its first two seasons, so this seems to be a scheduling move they're insistent on sticking with. Still, ABC not wanting more episodes for early 2027 does not suggest that they have any confidence whatsoever in RJ Decker. They probably shouldn't, as we all know how horribly it performed last season at 10 PM, dropping as low as 0.13. They also have a relatively full lineup for midseason, with three returning dramas and a new one. RJ Decker's weak return suggests that they made the right choice in wanting it wrapped up as quickly as possible.
Streaming hasn't necessarily been RJ Decker's strong suit, either. It's done decently on Disney+, but it's peaked at #4 on Hulu, even with some of its strongest competition still waiting to premiere. It's performing worse than FX shows and daytime soap General Hospital. It can't even keep up with Dancing with the Stars, despite scripted dramas almost always performing better than live reality shows. It's not an outright disaster on Hulu, but I don't think it's doing well enough there to make up for its weak linear ratings, or to make ABC reconsider their apparent lack of faith in it.
Similarly damning is ABC's recent press release, which bragged about not just Dancing with the Stars, but also the Wednesday night "After Party" special, which aired behind the weaker night of DWTS during premiere week. ABC was quick to tout its "strong" premiere performance last season, but they ignored it entirely this year. Yes, they have little to brag about here, but it's unusual for them to not even try to pat themselves on the back for a "successful" launch. They are clearly disappointed in what they've seen, and that is a terrible way to start the new season. It's already a likely cancellation.
Dancing with the Stars: What can I say about Dancing with the Stars that hasn't already been said? After unprecedented growth last season, it's managed another year of phenomenal growth from last year's premiere. It did premiere a bit lower than it had performed at the end of last season, but that's not really the barometer for success here. Nothing else is going to perform even remotely as strong this season, and it's going to easily be the #1 show on TV again. In a ratings environment filled with ugly year-to-year drops, where a 0.25 rating is now seen as "solid," it's so exciting to have one show still showing remarkable signs of life. It's obviously a certain renewal.
What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
