Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Hunting Party (0.16, 0.10-0.22)
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Leans Cancellation:
The Wall (0.16, 0.12-0.19)
Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.24, 0.20-0.29)
Likely Renewal:
N/A
Certain Renewal:
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.26)
Saturday Night Live (0.64, 0.43-0.91)
Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire (0.34, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.38, 0.19-1.38)
Happy's Place (0.25, 0.18-0.33)
Law & Order: SVU (0.30, 0.21-0.33)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.37)
The Voice (0.28, 0.19-0.42)
Already Canceled:
Brilliant Minds (0.14, 0.11-0.18)
Stumble (0.20, 0.11-0.61)
Law & Order: I've maintained the belief that if any veteran show on NBC was in trouble this season, it was Law & Order. All of Dick Wolf's other dramas appeared to be outright locks, but the lowest-rated of the bunch has been a genuine bubble show this season. I was starting to feel a bit more comfortable about its position due to my belief that NBC wouldn't want to cancel it abruptly again, wanting to avoid upsetting the ever-important Dick Wolf, who was furious the first time it was canceled. However, it's quite eyebrow-raising that the show still isn't renewed, just four days out from NBC's fall schedule announcement. They've canceled several shows without any news on Law & Order, and they already issued a renewal this week with Reggie Dinkins, again keeping mum on the status of Law & Order. While its ratings are nothing to brag about, Law & Order hasn't had an awful season, with its 0.24 average tying the already-renewed Happy's Place and not too far behind SVU or Chicago PD. The real issue its its poor streaming performance, as it was NBC's lowest-rated renewed drama in total viewers in MP+30 ratings last season (below even Brilliant Minds and The Hunting Party). Its Peacock performance was actually said to be stronger this season in the very little news we have had about its streaming performance, though that was very early in the season, and it could've declined since. It does have a Netflix deal now, which should help, but it still might not be enough, if it struggles on there like it seemingly has on Peacock. One factor working in its favor is that I do struggle to see NBC sticking SVU between two new shows on the fall schedule. They have aired two new shows on the same night before (last spring on Sundays), and it hasn't gone that well. Would NBC want to jeopardize SVU by putting it in the middle of what could be a disastrous lineup? I'm skeptical, but with the number of pilots NBC has, it's not impossible. Law & Order is far from out of the woods, and I think its run is nearing the end, based on how long NBC is dragging its heels with this pickup. It's definitely on the bubble, and NBC loving their pilots could be a big concern for it, but my gut is telling me there are enough factors working in its favor to keep it alive for another season, though perhaps a shorter one. Chance of renewal: 65%
The Hunting Party: Last season, it was a surprise when The Hunting Party was renewed after a very weak inaugural season. While it's held up better than anticipated, it seems unlikely that history will repeat itself this May. NBC has many drama pilots in development, and limited schedule space available. While two shows have been canceled so far, something else will have to go. The most obvious choice is The Hunting Party, which has yet to find its footing. It's had a few respectable showings, but it's been a glaring weakness on the schedule more times than not, making those decent showings look more like a fluke than anything. Its 0.16 average is lower than Stumble's average, and lower than fellow bubble show Law & Order. Its performance on Peacock has also been unexceptional, seemingly declining as the season has gone on. NBC also slashed its order to only thirteen episodes, after originally saying its second season would run for a full season of at least eighteen episodes. That's not an indication that they were thigh on the show going into the season, and while it did perform better this year than Brilliant Minds, it probably hasn't done enough to change NBC's mind. It was always likely to be canceled after this season, and that's exactly what I'm guessing will happen. Chance of renewal: 30%
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon: If you don't remember this show, it's hard to blame you. It ran for just a month back in fall, covering an hour on Tuesdays before the NBA arrived and Fridays before the comedy hour premiered. Ratings were bad, bad enough that it's probably not worth it for NBC to bring it back despite the likely minimal expense. Its streaming performance was terrible, the worst of any show on NBC this season, and it dropped as low as 0.14 in an 8 PM slot on Friday - much worse than Happy's Place and even Stumble. NBC has several reality shows filming in the coming months, with the potential for a fall launch - The Voice will be back, Destination X seems eligible for a fall slot, and so does their civilian version of The Traitors. That's plenty of reality offerings to pick from without needing to bring this show, which has already been forgotten, back. It moves to a likely cancellation this week. Chance of renewal: 25%
Saturday Night Live: NBC's oldest show is also easily their highest-rated. Saturday night staple SNL has seemingly always been around, and it's as strong as it's ever been in this current iteration, with a far higher ratings average than any show airing fully in primetime during the week. As long as there's an NBC, it seems there will be SNL. Chance of renewal: 100%
Dateline NBC: Much like SNL, Dateline is an NBC staple, and a reliable player for them on a very tough evening. While far from a ratings smash, it holds down the fort for NBC, and often rises from whatever's airing at 8:30. We'll be seeing it for a long time to come. Chance of renewal: 100%
The Wall: This is a show we likely won't get a decision on this week, or likely anytime soon. The Wall aired just four episodes this winter, and it will then air some more episodes this summer, beginning in August. It'll likely have more episodes left to air after that summer run, but these episodes were filmed years ago, and my guess is they'll be the last episodes of the show to be recorded. It's reliable filler for NBC, but probably not strong enough for them to order new episodes years after it last taped. They'll stretch the currently-recorded episodes for a while, and that'll probably be it. But I'll probably have plenty of time to discuss this show down the line, so this is less a "final" prediction, and more just where its renewal odds will freeze for the time being. Chance of renewal: 35%
The Voice: While NBC hasn't put out a press release touting The Voice's official renewal for its milestone 30th season, it is coming back. Adam Levine announced as much last month through People Magazine, and NBC then confirmed today that Kelly Clarkson would also return as a coach. The renewal was never in much doubt, even though this was far from a strong season for the long-running singing show. Season 30 will air this fall, and the real question is whether it'll be followed up by season 31 in the spring. Whether it will be or not, it's definitely making it to the 2026-27 season, making this a correct prediction.
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins: Going into this final week, the most likely pickup on the network was The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins. The series ended on some fairly shaky ground, but had a decent season overall, and came from a creative team that was always likely to assist in the show getting a second chance, barring an outright ratings disaster. Stumble's cancellation last Friday certainly eased its path to renewal, and I do think Reggie Dinkins was the stronger show of the two, even though I'm not convinced it's going to have a long run itself. This was a correct prediction, though it was downgraded to only a "likely" renewal after I'd previously labeled its renewal a certainty.
Brilliant Minds: No cancellation this season has felt more like a formality than Brilliant Minds. While it was the highest-rated of a horrific freshman class last season, it returned in truly terrible shape. Its season premiere hit a series low, and things never got better from there. Brilliant Minds would ultimately be pulled from the schedule over a season that would see it rank as the lowest-rated scripted series on broadcast television, only beating out ABC midseason filler Betrayal: Secrets & Lies overall. Further cementing its status as a surefire cancellation was NBC's announcement that it was being pulled from the schedule, to return at an unannounced later date, with its episode order having been cut by two episodes. It was then scheduled for a summer run for those last six episodes. NBC officially canceled it last week, and it's impossible to say it wasn't deserved. This was a correct prediction.
Stumble: I had trouble predicting Stumble this season, starting it out as a cancellation prediction, then coming around on its chances before NBC's comedy development slate reassured me that it probably was going to be a one-and-done, as I'd originally thought. Ratings were low, but not low enough that it was outside the realm of possibility for it to get another chance - this is an NBC comedy, after all. They also really gave it a chance to catch on, with repeats on Monday nights and a post-Olympic slot. Neither helped enough to make a real difference. As time went on after the finale, it seemed increasingly unlikely that NBC would bring it back, especially when NBC had two obvious companions for Happy's Place in development, Reggie Dinkins performing better, and another St. Denis Medical companion in development. There just wasn't room for this show, and its performance wasn't strong enough for them to choose it over their projects in development. A "leans cancellation" prediction for much of this season, Stumble is also a correct prediction.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | St. Denis Medical | Reggie Dinkins | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | The Hunting Party | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Stumble | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sat | Encores | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Basketball | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
