ABC Renew/Cancel Week 5: Grey’s Anatomy Still Has a Pulse

It's been another busy week on ABC, and ratings continue to shift across the board. This week, I'm discussing a linear ratings hit that's struggling on streaming and a modest linear performer that's a hit on streaming. Keep on reading to see if either of them are due for an upgrade - or downgrade - this week!

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.20, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
Shifting Gears (0.35, 0.31-0.38)

Likely Renewal:

9-1-1 (0.32, 0.30-0.33)

9-1-1: Nashville (0.26, 0.23-0.29)

Abbott Elementary (0.31, 0.27-0.38)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.29, 0.27-0.31)

Grey's Anatomy (0.23, 0.18-0.27)

Shark Tank (0.17, 0.13-0.20)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.19, 0.16-0.20)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.28, 0.26-0.29)

Dancing with the Stars (1.16, 1.02-1.26)

High Potential (0.35, 0.32-0.42)

Coming Soon:

American Idol

The Bachelorette

Celebrity Jeopardy!

The Great Christmas Light Fight

RJ Decker

The Rookie

Scrubs

Will Trent

Grey's Anatomy: My attention went to the 9-1-1 duo last week, but Grey's Anatomy also returned for a new season, and it did so in strong shape. It drew its highest ratings in a year, rising over half a tenth from its finale with a 0.27 in the key 18-49 demo. It's also performed well on Hulu, never ranking #1 on the streamer, but consistently ranking in the top fifteen on there. While it's higher-rated (and peaked higher on Hulu), 9-1-1 Nashville hasn't been quite as stable, slipping out of the top fifteen. Grey's has long been a solid streaming performer, enough to make up for the fact that its linear ratings are sliding. And sliding is exactly what Grey's did in week two. Grey's saw a week two drop that we usually only see for new shows, dropping 33% to a 0.18 in the demo. That's a new series low, and an even worse showing than we saw from the show when its lead-in, Doctor Odyssey, dropped to 0.19. Given how much ratings have declined across broadcast, this wouldn't have been a jarring result if not for the previous week's showing. Even with the show hitting a new low, I remain confident that it's in little danger. I've stated many times in the past that Grey's Anatomy is just too important of a show for ABC to cancel it, and that's still the case. Its days as a linear ratings hit are gone, but it's still valuable enough for ABC in other regards that it's safe. It's going to end one day, but I do have a hard time envisioning that that's going to happen without a ton of advanced notice. Many shows don't get final season announcements, but Grey's Anatomy isn't just any old show. Besides, while low, its ratings aren't too far off of what many other 10 PM series are getting. CBS's Monday through Thursday 10 PM dramas all returned lower, NBC's 10 PM series were all at least as low, and only High Potential rates better among ABC's 10 PM offerings, and that show's got a 1.2 lead-in. 10 PM ratings are terrible across the board, and Grey's Anatomy isn't doing poorly enough in that slot for it to really be in any danger, not when it has plenty of other factors working in its favor. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Shifting Gears: Last week, Shifting Gears rose to a season high, with an impressive 0.38 in the demo. Though competition is minimal so far, that's the highest rating we've seen for a comedy not boosted by an NFL lead-in at this point this season. Abbott Elementary tied it at 8:30, so it was a good night for ABC comedy overall (the same can not be said for 9 PM's Golden Bachelor, which remains dead weight). It's an impressive uptick, and the show's highest-rated episode since the sixth episode of season one, back in early February. It's pretty clear that this show is a first-run ratings success, which isn't a huge surprise. While it dropped off pretty quickly, Tim Allen's Last Man Standing was a huge success for Fox at first. Even in its ABC days, it always performed very well on Friday nights. He's someone who has a built-in audience on broadcast who tends to tune in (though that audience began to tune out by the time it ended on Fox). That being said, there are some warning signs here regarding the show's longevity. Its Hulu performance this season has been seriously lacking so far. It's charted just one day after the last two episodes, and only cracked the top ten once this season: the day after its premiere. Deadline stated at the end of last season that the show had dropped enough in multiplatform ratings by the end of season one that ABC had some concerns about it. While they still renewed it with ease soon after that report, I think its current Hulu performance suggests that there was truth to it. Its current performance looks no better than that of the final season of The Conners, far and away ABC's lowest-rated scripted show in multiplatform last season. For that reason, I'm going to leave Shifting Gears where it is for now. Its first-run ratings will likely be enough to save it. They were enough to keep The Conners on the air for seven seasons. But in a world where streaming performance matters more than ever, it's going to need to keep up this strong performance on ABC to keep itself alive. It doesn't have the luxury of relying on streaming to provide the majority of its audience in the way that Abbott, or Grey's Anatomy, or High Potential do. It's just a bit too early for an upgrade, especially when we don't have any concrete multiplatform ratings just yet. It still LEANS RENEWAL, though I think it will be just fine in the end.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	Monday Night Football
Tues	Dancing with the Stars			High Potential
Wed	Shifting Gears	Abbott Elementary	The Golden Bachelor	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	Saturday Night Football
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney