ABC Renew/Cancel Week 1: Poor Retention or Not, High Potential Still Has High Potential

The ABC Renew/Cancel is finally back from its summer break, and we have a major change this season. Evolution is an important thing, and broadest TV itself is evolving. That's why, with an increase in unscripted programming across the networks, and including ABC, it's time for me to begin covering ABC's reality shows in this column. While I did predict their unscripted offerings last year in a separate column, I think the best way to do things moving forward is to cover both reality and scripted series together. And for that reason, in this week's column, I'll be discussing two of ABC's great hits, which both returned last week — High Potential and Dancing with the Stars.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
N/A

Likely Renewal:

N/A

Certain Renewal:

Dancing with the Stars (1.06)

High Potential (0.34)

Coming Soon:

20/20

9-1-1

9-1-1: Nashville
Abbott Elementary

American Idol

America's Funniest Home Videos

The Bachelorette

Celebrity Jeopardy!

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune

The Golden Bachelor

The Great Christmas Light Fight

Grey's Anatomy

The Rookie

Scrubs

Shark Tank
Shifting Gears
Will Trent

High Potential: Let's just get this out of the way: nothing is going to retain that gargantuan Dancing with the Stars lead-in in an impressive way at 10 PM. It's not a time slot that draws hit ratings anymore. Last year's #1 10 PM show was Chicago PD, with a 0.35 average (High Potential itself was a touch higher, but aired half of its episodes at 9 PM, and therefore, it's not fair to designate it as a proper 10 PM show). High Potential's 0.34 debut this season, while assisted by a hit lead-in, is just a single hundredth lower than that. Plus, as we all saw, this show does far better in an earlier time slot, having exploded to new heights when ABC moved it to 9 PM during the winter. So retention is of no concern to me here, and won't impact my prediction. The truth is that this is a major hit show for ABC, and a streaming powerhouse. Last year, its 16.1 million viewers made if the fifth most-watched show of the season across broadcast, cable and streaming per Nielsen, and it was fourteenth in the key demo (with a 3.9). It was the highest-ranked broadcast show in the demo, and the #2 show in total viewers. Its streaming performance thus far suggests that it is still very much a streaming hit. On top of the streaming argument, it's also critical to note that, while its lead-in did increase, this premiere is just a single hundredth below its series premiere rating, while adding roughly 800,000 viewers (more viewers than DWTS added). A 0.34 behind a 1.06 doesn't exactly pop out initially as a massively impressive start, but it is, and I believe this show is going to have a very long and successful run. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Dancing with the Stars: "Unbelievable" is probably the most appropriate way to describe the resurgence of Dancing with the Stars. Now firmly established as broadcast's biggest hit, DWTS is the only show on TV anymore that can still crack the elusive 1.0 mark on its own (sports, of course, not included). It did so "just" once last season, with a miraculous rise to a 1.14 for its finale. This year, it returned heavily up from its already-astonishing 0.73 debut last year, nearly matching its finale rating with a 1.06. This is a show that wasn't even on broadcast TV just three years ago, and seemingly only returned to ABC because of the SAG and WGA strikes. IT made the absolute most of its second chance, and it's not going anywhere anytime soon. I likely won't have to do another write-up for the show for the remainder of the season, because the #1 show on TV is even safer than a CERTAIN RENEWAL label can designate. See you next year.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!