Showing posts with label ncis:la. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ncis:la. Show all posts

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders' Has a Solid Sampling

CBS
Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of March 20, 2016.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.0 / 2.7 / 2.26
-5.8%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.02
--
4
Scorpion
1.5 / 2.2 / 1.82
-20.9%
5
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.77
-29.2%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75
-16.7%
7
Supergirl
1.3 / 3.1 / 1.74
--
8
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.69
-26.5%
9
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
10
Mike & Molly
1.6 / 1.7 / 1.62
-16.9%
11
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders
- / 1.6 / 1.60
--
12
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42
--
13
Limitless
1.1 / 1.9 / 1.39
--
14
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.34
-16.3%
15
Madam Secretary
1.0 / 2.0 / 1.28
-11.1%
16
Code Black
1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26
--
17
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25
-3.8%
18
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14
-5.0%
19
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.4 / 1.06
-11.7%
20
Elementary
0.8 / 1.2 / 1.04
-20.0%
21
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91
-35.0%

Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders premiered to a solid 1.6 rating in the demo this week. While that's not of breakout-hit caliber, it's not a lazy effort by any means for what is easily CBS's highest rated 10pm scripted airing since NCIS: LA (1.6) on February 8, 2016. This result is 10 percent higher than Code Black's series premiere and season high (1.5), 33 percent higher than Code Black's season finale in February (1.2), and 60 percent above the special airing of CSI: Cyber (1.0) in the hour last week. The retention was a solid ~85 percent behind the Criminal Minds mothership. It's safe to say that this was a pretty OK result for a spinoff that had its share of low projections leading up to its premiere. The real test will be how it holds up in the coming weeks. Until more indicative data points are available, this one is destined for the bubble. Sadly for Code Black, the newest CBS drama entry didn't go down in flames in its first airing, which makes it a contender for renewal in the already-tight race.

What's your take on the Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders premiere numbers and its chances for renewal? Does Code Black still stand a chance with a decently-rated new show in the market and its 18 episodes slowly fading from the network and public's memory? Share your thoughts below.

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'CSI: Cyber' Needs Critical Tech Support

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of March 15, 2016. (Please Note: At the time of posting, the final 3/14 ratings for Supergirl, Scorpion, and NCIS: LA were not available. Thus, the 3/14 ratings will be factored into the index table in the next edition.)

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.0 / 2.7 / 2.27
-5.4%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.02
--
4
Scorpion
1.5 / 2.2 / 1.84
-20.0%
5
Supergirl
1.4 / 3.1 / 1.77
--
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.76
-16.2%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.76
-29.6%
8
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.69
-26.5%
9
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
10
Mike & Molly
1.6 / 1.7 / 1.62
-16.9%
11
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42
--
12
Limitless
1.1 / 1.9 / 1.41
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.34
-16.3%
14
Madam Secretary
1.0 / 2.0 / 1.28
-11.1%
15
Code Black
1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26
--
16
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25
-3.8%
17
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14
-5.0%
18
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.4 / 1.06
-11.7%
19
Elementary
0.8 / 1.2 / 1.04
-20.0%
20
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91
-35.0%

Why is "Life In Pieces" Certain to be Renewed?
Remarkably, the freshman comedy has held up very well through 20 episodes. It has averaged 2.02 so far this season, with a season low of only 1.8. There's an audience for it. It's CBS's #2 comedy and #3 scripted series overall. It doesn't hurt that the show has received critical praise and gives CBS a relatively successful single-cam, which they persistently want to find success with. A second season is guaranteed at this point, but the real test will be how it performs away from the cushy post-Big Bang spot next season.

Why is "Scorpion" Certain to be Renewed?
The sophomore drama has been a reliable performer for CBS since its debut in 2014. Even though it's down 20 percent Y2Y, it's averaging a 1.84 and easily remains the network's #2 drama, #4 show overall, and a staple for CBS Mondays.

Why is "Supergirl" Certain to be Renewed?
Supergirl offers the highest ratings for a CBS freshman drama this season, trumping Limitless and Code Black. Some might look at its 20-episode first season as a detriment (not getting the "full 22" treatment), but it really doesn't matter at this point. CBS won't drop its best-performing new drama, especially when the network appears comfortable with and excited over its potential as an installment in the overarching network TV superhero narrative. Like Life In Pieces, the challenge will be its second season ratings. That's an issue for the 2016-17 CBS Renew/Cancel Watch.

Why is "NCIS: New Orleans" Certain to be Renewed?
The NCIS franchise is thriving. There's no way CBS severs such a lucrative franchise this season with all of the shows that are much worse off.

Why is "Criminal Minds" Certain to be Renewed?
The Y2Y drop of 29.6 percent is CBS's second worst of the season to date. However, the drama can still yield a 2.0 when it wants to. That's got serious value. Should CBS move it to 10pm next season? Probably. The 10pm hour is trouble for CBS, with Stalker, Code Black, and even CSI: Cyber's two-episode stint failing to really make a mark. Anything 1.4+ next season would be relative gold for that timeslot, while allowing a new drama to take shape at 9 after Survivor.

Why is "Mom" Certain to be Renewed?"
It's CBS's #3 comedy and will have three full seasons under its belt. You can't exactly apply the "Chuck Lorre" rule of thumb anymore, what with Mike & Molly thrown to the wolves this season, but it's still a valuable player for CBS and will live on at least through a 4th season, if not several more than that. There are absolutely no signs that this one is being eyed for a surprise cancellation.
 
Why is "2 Broke Girls" Likely to be Renewed?
Can the same reasoning above be applied to 2 Broke Girls? Not exactly. The raunchy comedy is in its 5th season and has been benched and moved repeatedly across CBS's schedule. All things considered, its 1.63 seasonal average isn't so bad, especially compared to Angel From Hell's weak performance in the Thursday at 9:30 timeslot (where 2BG has aired most of its episodes). Plus, it's hard to even entertain The Odd Couple in a comparative sense, seeing as though it'll return a year after it aired, with only 13 episodes for its second season. Nonetheless, The Big Bang Theory, Mom, and Life In Pieces already round out a decent slate of comedies for the network's 2016-2017 season. There's reason to believe Kat Dennings and Beth Behrs are not CBS's top priority anymore as their show continues to age, but there's little reason to believe that it won't at least get a 13-episode sixth (and final) season a la Mike & Molly. If CBS keeps just two comedy hours in the fall, then I suspect 2 Broke Girls will be benched. If CBS tries three comedy hours again, then I suspect 2 Broke Girls will be slotted in the fall. Time will tell, but the comedy will more than likely see a sixth season, even if its a short and final one.

Why is "Limitless" Likely to be Renewed?

This one has been the toughest to call for some time now. It's doing about the same as Code Black in recent months, which isn't a positive thing. However, it's a well-liked procedural that fits the CBS bill, boasts a higher seasonal average, and had the confidence from CBS with 22 episodes compared to Code Black's 18. I'm betting on CBS being generous with another of its freshman dramas, but I don't know that the same generosity can be extended to both Limitless and Code Black.

Why is "NCIS: LA" Certain to be Renewed?

Compared to its sister shows, NCIS: LA appears to be the weakest in face-value ratings. However, it's doing important work in the Monday at 10 timeslot. Not only has it saved that slot from previous failures (namely, Hostages and Intelligence), but it's putting up CBS's best 10pm numbers, often higher than CSI: Cyber, Limitless, Code Black, Elementary, and Blue Bloods. That power is not to be diminished. Again, it's part of an advantageous franchise that CBS isn't going to break up this season with many shows passively failing to push it out of contention.

Why is "Madam Secretary" Likely to be Renewed?

This show has fallen so far under the radar when it comes to talking CBS renewals and cancellations, but that's in the show's ultimate benefit. Sunday's a rough night for CBS, and with the help of football/60 Minutes overrun, Madam Secretary has so far managed to keep a pulse. CBS is already ending The Good Wife on Sundays, and CSI: Cyber, by most accounts, will be joining it at a much faster pace. They can't cancel the entire night, and this one will have two full seasons by May. A four-season run might be a legitimate investment that CBS is willing to make, with Tea Leoni temporarily serving as the new Julianna Margulies.

Why is "Code Black" Likely to be Canceled?
I have my reservations about Code Black that have kept it at a cancellation level for the majority of its run. Its the weakest freshman show for the network with only a 1.26 average after 18 episodes. Traditional renew/cancel reasoning would suggest that both of those data points (1.26 average + 18-episode season) are cause for certain cancellation. However, broadcast television standards are slowly changing, Les Moonves has claimed that "around five" of the network's freshman series will be renewed, and the general ratings bar is slightly lowered every season to account for the expected annual declines. Could Code Black somehow, in some way, pull off a major win and get its second season? Yeah, it could, but it's a real reach if Limitless gets favored first. Also, Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders sequel/spinoff series will be premiering this week, which could be a determining factor for Code Black. Keep your eyes on this one in the coming week or so, amidst CBS's annual early announcements (last year was Sunday, March 22) and the arrival of Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders.

Why is "Blue Bloods" Certain to be Renewed?
Blue Bloods is the staple for CBS Fridays, putting up the best numbers on the night even at the latest hour. It's down a remarkably thin 3.8 percent Y2Y and has time to kill before CBS needs to move new veterans into the Friday Retirement Farm.

Why is "Hawaii Five-0" Likely to be Renewed?
Like Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0 is a reliable performer on Fridays. It's the third lowest-rated show on the network, but it's a Friday show and gets some slack for that. With CBS's new batch of dramas having varied levels of success, plus one drama already ending and a good two on the foreseeable way out, some veterans with syndication benefits will likely get spared. 

Why is "Elementary" Likely to be Renewed?
Elementary has an incredibly lucrative $3M/episode syndication package with WGN, which is largely what has kept it around for four seasons with the low ratings it consistently has. It's moving to Sundays at 10 this season, which is where it'll have to prove its ultimate value. If it can manage to average ~1.0 in that slot, there's no reason to expect CBS to turn its cheek on its syndication prospects after this season, even for a 13-episode fifth and final run.

Why is "CSI: Cyber" Certain to be Canceled?
It's handily the lowest-rated show on the network and had its season two order cut to 18 episodes. Anyone who predicts a renewal for this one knows something that I don't. It's been said that international sales and the tie-in to the larger CSI universe can help it, but does CBS really have the room or affection for more seasons of a show that has 29 episodes, a network-low 0.91 seasonal average, gained and lost a star in a single season (Ted Danson), aired two episodes out of its timeslot, and got its episode order cut short? CBS might as well bring Medium back if they are interested in keeping Patricia Arquette and a familiar property on television.

- - - - - 

What do you think of my predictions? Feel free to share your thoughts and predictions below.

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 100+ Million Watch 'The Good Wife' ... Announce Its Final Season

CBS
Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of February 7, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.7 / 2.27
-5.4%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.02
--
4
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.85
-19.6%
5
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.82
--
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75
-16.7%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.75
-30.0%
8
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.67
-27.4%
9
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
10
Mike & Molly
1.6 / 1.7 / 1.62
-16.9%
11
Limitless
1.2 / 1.9 / 1.48
--
12
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42
--
13
Madam Secretary
1.0 / 2.0 / 1.31
-9.0%
14
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.33
-16.9%
15
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28
--
16
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.24
-4.6%
17
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14
-5.0%
18
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.4 / 1.08
-10.0%
19
Elementary
0.8 / 1.2 / 1.04
-20.0%
20
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.88
-37.1%

During Super Bowl 50 on Sunday night, millions of people watching the game (a figure so insanely high) were shown the first official "Final Season" promo for CBS's long-running legal drama, The Good Wife. The TV spot announces the remaining nine episodes of the current season to be the show's last. This news has been largely expected, with star Julianna Margulies recently speaking out about being "unemployed come April," along with co-creators Robert and Michelle King announcing their departure after this season. Sorry to all the Good Wife fans out there, but this one effectively moves into the red in the chart above as CBS's first veteran drama cancellation of the season. At least the network was smart to take advantage of the high viewership levels of the Super Bowl in an effort to transfer some eyeballs to the show's final string of episodes. If the last six years have been any indication, viewership is likely to exceed 100 million again this year, which is far more than the drama's current seasonal average of just over 8 million weekly viewers.

- - - -

Are you surprised by the cancellation and final season announcement for The Good Wife?
Do you think any other shows will get a final season announcement in the coming months?

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'The Good Wife' Certain to be Canceled

CBS
Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of January 23, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.7 / 2.27
-5.4%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.01
--
4
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.85
-19.6%
5
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.85
--
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75
-16.7%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.73
-30.8%
8
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.67
-27.4%
9
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.64
-18.0%
10
Mike & Molly
1.6 / 1.7 / 1.63
-16.4%
11
Limitless
1.2 / 1.9 / 1.48
--
12
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.43
--
13
Madam Secretary
1.0 / 2.0 / 1.33
-7.6%
14
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.32
-17.5%
15
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28
--
16
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.24
-4.6%
17
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14
-5.00%
18
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.4 / 1.09
-9.2%
19
Elementary
0.8 / 1.2 / 1.02
-21.5%
20
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.87
-37.9%

With Julianna Margulies speaking out this week about being unemployed come April, it sounds like The Good Wife is losing its leading lady by the end of its current season. This news comes shortly after co-creators Robert and Michelle King announced that they won't return as showrunners, should the legal drama be picked up for an eighth season. The Kings have been forward about their seven season plan since the beginning, and they now have their attention set on another CBS project, BrainDead. Does the loss of its lead and creators/showrunners signal the end of The Good Wife? I am thinking so. It's a low-rated, seventh-season show. This thing won't float anymore without the titular Good Wife in action. It's "Certain to be Canceled."

The progressive downward trend for Limitless is a bit worrying, as it hit a series low 1.2 this week. This isn't a great result, seeing as though it was CBS's second lowest rated show of the entire week. Even Code Black managed to top it (1.4). I'm placing the drama "On the Bubble" for the time being. It has a full season in its favor, but its recent ratings delivery is not convincing as far as a second season goes. It was once considered a very decent new player for CBS, but I think Supergirl has stolen that consideration from it. We'll see how it holds up in the coming weeks.

With that said, I have decided to upgrade Hawaii Five-O to "Likely to be Renewed." The show has been remarkably consistent (albeit very low) and a nearly perfect counterpart to Blue Bloods. I think both shows returning is a safe bet, considering CBS has bigger problems across the schedule. Its current 1.14 average is down only 5 percent from last season, which had a 1.2 average and got renewed. Spring ratings could dampen that average, but we're taking it one day at a time here.

- - - -

What are your thoughts on my predictions? Do you think CBS or will renew or cancel Limitless?  Also: Guests, check out the newly enabled guest commenting. We'd love to hear your thoughts.

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Supergirl' Likely to be Renewed


Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of January 17, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.7 / 2.26
-5.8%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.01
--
4
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.86
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.83
-20.4%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.74
-17.1%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.70
-32.0%
8
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.66
-27.8%
9
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
10
Mike & Molly
- / 1.6 / 1.60
-17.9%
11
Limitless
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.51
--
12
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.45
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.29
-21.3%
14
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28
--
15
Madam Secretary
1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26
-12.5%
16
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.4 / 1.20
-7.7%
17
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.3 / 1.08
-10.0%
18
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.06
-11.7%
19
Elementary
0.8 / 1.2 / 1.01
-22.3%
20
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.87
-37.9%

Angel from Hell has been marked as "Likely to be Canceled" after only two episodes. Last week, the comedy premiered to a mediocre 1.6 and fell 19 percent to a 1.3 this week. A freshman comedy on CBS with a 1.3 after only two episodes is unacceptable. I like to only move a show down/up one level per week, so unless it sees a significant uptick by its next airing, this one is headed for certain cancellation territory very soon.

With official word from CBS, Mike & Molly is ending this season with a conclusion and all. We knew this already, but this formality allows the show to be marked as "Already Canceled" in the index above. While its ratings are no longer significant to a renew/cancel prediction, I will continue to update its data.

Things aren't looking good for The Good Wife. Co-creators Robert and Michelle King will not return to serve as showrunners if the legal drama is picked up for an eighth season. This doesn't come as much of a surprise, since the Kings have been vocal about their seven season plan for some time now.  They are also spearheading a CBS project set for summer 2016, titled BrainDead. CBS's attitude toward The Good Wife doesn't sound promising either. While there is apparently a bench of producers that could step in to replace the Kings, CBS said that they have not made a decision on the future of the show yet. The ratings are low, its in its seventh season, and its losing its creators/showrunners. It's "Likely to be Canceled" right now, but I may be inclined to predict it as "Certain" soon. Check back on this one.
Despite being torn apart by many commenters, Supergirl has actually been holding up decently after nine episodes. It hasn't dipped below 1.5 yet, which Limitless and Code Black certainly have. CBS seems to have a lot of faith in it, and its 20-episode season, compared to a traditional 22 for a full season, doesn't really harm its chances, from my perspective. It is CBS's #1 new drama and #4 scripted show, not to mention that network TV is high on superhero concepts right now. As long as it holds up in mid-to-high 1s, I think this one is "Likely to be Renewed" for a second season. Things could change by the end of the season, but right now, it's looking safe.

- - - -

What are your thoughts on my predictions? If you were CBS, would you renew or cancel Supergirl? Feel free to share your thoughts below!

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Elementary' Likely to be Renewed

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes follows. My current predictions are as of January 2, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.




   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.5 / 2.22
-7.5%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.00
--
4
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.85
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.80
-21.7%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 1.9 / 1.67
-20.5%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.67
-33.2%
8
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.60
-20.0%
9
Mom
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-29.1%
10
Limitless
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.52
--
11
Madam Secretary
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.29
-10.4%
12
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.4 / 1.26
-21.3%
14
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.19
-8.5%
15
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.1 / 1.07
-10.8%
16
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.06
-11.7%
17
Elementary
0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97
-25.4%
18
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.86
-40.7%

Here we are in 2016 already, but the new year hasn't exactly brought a great amount of change to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch just yet. While only one show's status has changed this week, expect Angel From Hell to potentially shake things up in the coming weeks, as well as Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders and The Odd Couple in the coming months.
Elementary: The one change this week goes to Elementary, which is currently in its fourth season on CBS. The show has an incredibly lucrative syndication deal in place with WGN, yielding $3 million per episode. This is an incredible package deal that has motivated CBS to treat it with great care for the past four years. However, it's ratings are consistently very low and indicate that if it stays on the air and has a lock on that $3m/ep deal, it should retire to a slot where the expectations are slightly lower. Thus, in my mind, Sundays at 10 would be perfect to get another season or two out of the show merely for its syndication benefits. I have had Elementary "On the Bubble" for a good portion of this season, but I'm ready to promote it to "Likely to be Renewed" given that CBS would most likely axe a number of shows before it. I was concerned with it dipping to a 0.8 rating so early on in the season, but it has since rebounded to ~1.0 each week, which is bad, but a kind of good-bad, given its valuable deals in place. We'll see how the remainder of the season goes, but as of now, I think it's chances are fairly comfortable.

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: Another Week, Another Fighting 'Code Black'


Hollywood Reporter/CBS
Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes follows. My current predictions are as of December 12, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.




   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.5 / 2.23
-7.1%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 1.98
--
4
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.90
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.80
-21.7%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 1.9 / 1.67
-20.5%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.67
-33.2%
8
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.60
-20.0%
9
Mom
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.60
-30.4%
10
Limitless
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.54
--
11
Madam Secretary
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.29
-10.4%
12
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.4 / 1.24
-22.5%
14
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.19
-8.5%
15
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.1 / 1.07
-10.8%
16
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.06
-11.7%
17
Elementary
0.8 / 1.1 / 0.96
-26.2%
18
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.0 / 0.84
-40.0%


  • CODE BLACK: I have slightly upgraded Code Black to "Likely to be Canceled." While it's still at a clear disadvantage in having only 18 episodes ordered for the season and effectively leaving the schedule come late February, CBS might have to keep a close eye on this one's performance. In the last three weeks, it has seen its best numbers in the demo since its Sept. 30th premiere. However, it has not aired against NBC's Chicago PD in any of those three airings, which suggests it may very well be benefitting from a lack of direct competition. It's somewhat concerning that its lead-in, Criminal Minds, grew 18.5 percent this week, while Code Black ended up down 7 percent week-to-week. Still, if CBS finds that the audience has slowly but legitimately grown for the medical drama, it might be a "little show that could" in the making for the network. We'll see. It's also dependent on how Supergirl fits in the picture, as well as how Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders does in Code Black's timeslot.

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Code Black' Still Certain to be Canceled... Maybe?

Variety


Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes follows. My current predictions are as of December 5, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.




   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.5 / 2.23
-7.1%
3
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 1.99
--
4
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 1.97
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.81
-21.3%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 1.9 / 1.67
-20.5%
7
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.0 / 1.64
-34.4%
8
2 Broke Girls
1.6 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
9
Mom
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.60
-30.4%
10
Limitless
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.54
--
11
Madam Secretary
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.29
-10.4%
12
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.27
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.23
-23.1%
14
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.20
-7.7%
15
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.1 / 1.08
-10.0%
16
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.06
-11.7%
17
Elementary
0.8 / 1.1 / 0.93
-28.5%
18
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.0 / 0.84
-40.0%

It's been a slow week at CBS with only six scripted series airing original episodes (Madam Secretary, The Good Wife, Supergirl, Scorpion, Criminal Minds, and Code Black). Thus, there is little new data to work with. While no changes have been made to the prediction statuses above this week, there are a couple of shows worth analyzing as we head into the final month of 2015!



CODE BLACK
The medical drama, which has been standing quite firm on a 1.2 streak since its premiere, rose last week to a 1.4, despite airing on a Thanksgiving Eve that saw some big drops across the board. However, it didn't air against Nashville or Chicago PD, its usual 10PM comps. The show posted a 1.5 this week, tying its series premiere/high. Again, it didn't have Chicago PD to air against, but it did compete with Nashville, which, in all fairness, was its same old weak self at a measly 0.9 for the hour. Still, a 1.5 is a commendable result considering its track record and that it was only a tenth under its lead-in (Criminal Minds: 1.6). In the bigger picture, CBS doesn't seem to have much faith in the series, giving it only a 5-episode backorder to bring its total episode count to 18. On top of that, it's off the schedule by late February and will be replaced by Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders for midseason. Limitless, Supergirl, and Life In Pieces seem to have been given better treatment by the network, with each one scoring more episodes than Code Black. Until it faces its regular competition again in the hour, there's really no telling if the show is experiencing a legitimate growth pattern, or simply benefitting from the lack of competition (the latter being more likely). The odds are against this show as it stands, and it's possible it's attempting to speak up too little, too late.

SUPERGIRL
I recently moved the show down to The Bubble in light of its poor downward trend, as it has clearly taken a drastic tumble from its 3.1 premiere. With a track record of 3.1 / 2.1 / 1.7 / 1.8 / 1.5 / 1.6, it remains to be seen where this one is ultimately settling, but it's still likely to head into the unflattering territory of low 1s by the end of the season. With 20 episodes now being produced, and still being CBS's #1 new drama, I don't see it necessarily having the super-reach chances at a renewal that some might suggest, but definitely not comfortable ones either. The show does have tough competition from The Voice and Gotham on Mondays, and if CBS is keen on the idea of bringing back two freshman dramas, and Code Black's growth turns out to be a fluke, I see Supergirl holding the second best chance, second only to Limitless. The main factor working against it is that CBS doesn't own it, whereas they have stakes in Limitless and Code Black. Thus, a shortfall in ratings isn't as easily defendable. It's been a highly-touted asset for CBS since its pick-up, but it no doubt fell on its face as the hype has worn off and the ratings have failed to meet expectations. Yet, nine dramas have hit 1.3 or lower for CBS so far this season, and Supergirl is one of five that hasn't stooped that low yet. Again, give it time and it almost assuredly will. Where does this puzzle piece end up? We'll see how the season goes, but it could easily go either way.


What do you think CBS should do with Code Black and Supergirl? Is the growth for Code Black solely due to the lack of competition, or will it pull out a miracle renewal? Share your thoughts with me below!

 

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Supergirl' Flies Under the Radar

Variety


Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes follows. My current predictions are as of November 28, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.




   Rank     
Show Title
    Season Low / High /Average     
 Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.1 / 2.5 / 2.23
-7.1%
3
Supergirl
1.5 / 3.1 / 2.16
--
4
Life in Pieces
1.8 / 2.6 / 2.0
--
5
Scorpion
1.7 / 2.2 / 1.81
-21.3%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 1.9 / 1.67
-20.5%
7
Criminal Minds
1.4 / 2.0 / 1.65
-35.0%
8
2 Broke Girls
1.6 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
9
Mom
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.58
-31.3%
10
Limitless
1.3 / 1.9 / 1.54
--
11
Madam Secretary
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.29
-10.4%
12
Code Black
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.24
--
13
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.23
-23.1%
14
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.3 / 1.20
-7.7%
15
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.2 / 1.08
-10.0%
16
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.1 / 1.08
-10.0%
17
Elementary
0.8 / 1.1 / 0.93
-28.5%
18
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.0 / 0.84
-40.0%



Supergirl has fallen considerably in the last four weeks from its gigantic premiere. While a 3.1 debut in the demo was more than promising, the show has dropped every week (with the exception of last week's slight bump from 1.7 to 1.8), all the way down to a new low of 1.5 this week. Viewers were curious to see the latest show in the superhero genre, but they clearly weren't impressed enough to stick around. Falling over 50% from your series premiere after just five episodes is extremely poor, especially since this show was placed at the top of the night with very high expectations. Yet, Scorpion remains the dominant force of Mondays and NCIS: LA is scarily not far off from Supergirl (1.2 vs. 1.5). CBS might be better off scheduling Mike & Molly and The Odd Couple in the hour. Supergirl heads to The Bubble until further notice.