ABC's annual upfront presentation, where they will release their 2018 fall schedule, is on Tuesday, May 15. To prepare for this, we will be getting renewals and cancelations (as well as decisions on pilots). Based on the last couple of years, expect most of ABC's news to come on Thursday, May 10. For these final predictions, I will talk about every single one of ABC's shows that have yet to be renewed or canceled, sorted by confidence, beginning with the shows that I think are most certain to be renewed or canceled and ending with the shows I think are the biggest bubble shows.
Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)
Certain to be Canceled
Alex, Inc. (0.9, 0.6-1.3)
The Crossing (0.7, 0.5-0.9)
Inhumans (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.7, 0.4-1.0)
Likely to be Canceled
Deception (0.8, 0.6-1.2)
For the People (0.7, 0.5-0.9)
Likely to be Renewed
Agents of SHIELD (0.6, 0.4-0.7)
Designated Survivor (0.7, 0.5-1.1)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.0, 0.9-1.4)
Quantico (0.5, 0.5-0.5)
Speechless (1.2, 0.9-1.4)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
Black-ish (1.2, 0.9-2.6)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.0, 0.8-1.1)
Splitting Up Together (1.4, 1.0-2.1)
Station 19 (1.1, 1.0-1.2)
Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
The Good Doctor (RENEWED)
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
The Mayor (DE-FACTO CANCELED)
The Middle (FINAL SEASON)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Once Upon a Time (CANCELED)
Roseanne (RENEWED)
Scandal (FINAL SEASON)
Ten Days in the Valley (DE-FACTO CANCELED)
How to Get Away with Murder: While Thursday nights aren't what they used to be for ABC, they are still where most of the network's higher rated dramas are. Scandal is ending, but Grey's Anatomy has been renewed, and the third and final member of the original TGIT, How to Get Away with Murder, will definitely join it.
American Housewife: ABC attempted to give their latest in-house comedy success a lead-in upgrade this season, and while that didn't exactly work out as planned, American Housewife continued to rate well, and ABC will certainly take it to syndication.
Black-ish: The other ABC Studios comedy on the network got moved to Tuesdays this year, and while it didn't weather the move as well as ABC had likely hoped, Black-ish is still a solid enough performer, and that combined with the network's love for the show makes renewal certain.
Alex, Inc: This season's new Wednesday comedy didn't do that poorly at first, though it was clear it would only last the one season. After collapsing without an original lead-in, Alex Inc's fate was set in stone.
Station 19: The spin-off of Grey's Anatomy hasn't been incredibly impressive, but Station 19's stability and solid ratings make it a lock to return.
Inhumans: After a horribly-rated run on Fridays, there was no way this show was going to return. If a Marvel series must be renewed, it will certainly be Agents of SHIELD, not Inhumans.
Splitting Up Together: ABC's comedy slate is very successful, though this hasn't been the best year for them when it comes to new comedies. Splitting Up Together is the exception there, and with it retaining most of its lead-in each week, there's no reason not to renew.
Kevin Probably Saves the World: After a start that wasn't that bad for the timeslot and seeming support from the network, this show didn't look bad. However, Kevin Probably ended up fading, and ABC's support for the series followed. Now, they have better options for a third new drama renewal.
The Crossing: I have downgraded this show from "likely to be canceled" to "certain to be canceled" this week. Before, it looked like it was competing with For the People and Deception for a spot that may or may not be available (more on that later). Now, with it collapsing week-to-week with a different lead-in, having a percentage decline higher than its lead-in week-to-week, it is clear that The Crossing has virtually no audience of its own. There's no way it's going to return,
Fresh Off the Boat: This show is the weakest of ABC's returning comedies, and it is weaker than freshman Splitting Up Together. Still, I think it will get renewed. Fresh Off the Boat is very close to having enough episodes for 20th Century FOX to sell it into syndication, so the production company will ensure that the show gets a season five, probably on ABC.
Quantico: It probably won't be decided on during May anyway, but I am predicting its renewal just in case it is. Quantico was renewed last season with just as abysmal ratings.
Designated Survivor: While its ratings have not been impressive this season at all, ABC is struggling enough in drama that they don't look all that bad. Plus, Designated Survivor has streaming deals with Netflix internationally and Hulu domestically, which may be helping it make a profit. The ratings decline could lead to cancelation, but I'm doubting it.
For the People: With The Good Doctor and Station 19 performing well enough for renewal, and comedy hours possibly expanding, ABC probably doesn't really need to renew a third new drama. However, they might end up needing to, perhaps if they don't have enough drama pilots that they want to order to series to fill all of the timeslots. In that case, one of For the People or Deception may get renewed. I'm leaning Deception, but either could happen.
Deception: If you read what I said about For the People, you probably know what I have to say about this show. There's a chance that one of the two is renewed, and I think that Deception is a little bit more likely than For the People. I think the most likely scenario is both canceled, but that isn't a sure thing.
Speechless: One of ABC's two biggest bubble shows, this comedy really could go either way, and it is most likely dependent on whether or not ABC decides to expand from four to five comedy hours next season. With four comedy hours, they already have so many slots filled that they will want to give all of the remaining ones to new comedies. With five, they probably want to bring Speechless back so a new comedy doesn't have to get stuck in a lower priority timeslot, plus Speechless is a somewhat solid performer, so it does deserve a renewal. I think that expansion is the more likely option, but it's far from a guarantee just yet.
Agents of SHIELD: This show's fate all comes down to whether or not Disney lets ABC make the decision.
It was reported that ABC wanted to cancel the series last year, but the parent company insisted on renewal, likely due to corporate synergy, with SHIELD being a Marvel series. Will the same happen again this season? It's hard to say. This season, the show is being given an ending that works as a series ending. It's possible that this is what Disney wanted, a resolution so that the show works better on streaming. However, I'm thinking that synergy is the real reason, and that hasn't changed. Plus, if Disney was allowing the series to end, it would make the most sense for ABC to promote this as the final season. So, I am predicting renewal, but nothing would surprise me here.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
Make sure to check The TV Ratings Guide over the next two weeks for news about and leading up to upfronts!
Tuesday
that neither The Middle nor Blackish will be paired with Fresh Off The Boat on Tuesdays. This proves ABC's confidence in The Muppets, which hopefully works out for their sake—last time they overestimated the power of SHIELD and as a result The Goldbergs did not see the ratings they presumably thought it would. Nashville not moving to Sundays is a shocker to me. Considering Secrets & Lies, which was on Sunday this spring, will be used as a gap show for Nashville, I was surprised they didn't move them to Sunday at 10, otherwise known as the syndication farm slot. I think the Blackish leadin can be used for much better, and that they should have picked up a dramedy. Maybe Mix just wasn't executed well enough. The only reason I can think of to keep Nashville as is because it airs an hour after Empire, albeit on a different network, and maybe ABC hopes that this time around viewers of Empire will want to switch over to Nashville at the end to hear some more singing?
Thursday
Sunday