ABC Renew/Cancel - January 25: Modern Family is Likely to be Renewed

This week wasn't the most exciting of all when it comes to ABC, but it did provide us with the second week of A Million Little Things in its Thursday slot, and the third week of Schooled, along with the season finale of The Conners. When it comes to my predictions, I have made two changes, as two shows have made their cases for being upgraded.

Format for predictions:

Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
The Kids are Alright (1.0, 0.8-1.4)
Single Parents (0.9, 0.7-1.3)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Toss-Up

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.7, 0.6-0.8)*
Modern Family (1.3, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Black-ish (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Conners (1.6, 1.3-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)*
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.7-1.1)*
Schooled (1.2, 1.1-1.3)

*Includes one preliminary rating, as a holiday delay has delayed final ratings.

Modern Family: ABC's longest-running sitcom is getting quite expensive, and now has serious competition for its crown for the network's top comedy from The Goldbergs. Still, it would be a surprise if it didn't get an 11th season to wrap things up. Negotiations have been ongoing, and they are likely to result in one more season of Modern Family.

Fresh Off the Boat: After its third consecutive 0.7, I now feel confident enough to upgrade Fresh Off the Boat to likely to be renewed. The show is still a tough call, and it could come down to scheduling needs and how much it makes with its syndication deal. Right now though, I expect one more season of comedies on Friday night.

A Million Little Things: Holding onto that season high 1.1 in its second Thursday airing, after a Grey's Anatomy that was (at least preliminarily) down 3 tenths from last week makes A Million Little Things no longer a likely renewal, but a certain one. ABC showed faith in the show and clear desire for it to improve its numbers when they decided to move it to Thursday, and this week's result shows that this faith was not misplaced. Now the only question is where A Million Little Things will air in its second season.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

Modern Family Likely to End in 2019

Written Seeing an End of an Era by Bridger Cunningham

2019 seems to be a year which will change the dynamics of sitcoms as we know it.  In recent weeks, The Big Bang Theory's Johnny Galecki stated during his TCA appearance that The Big Bang Theory will likely end next year.  Now, showrunners declared they intend for ABC's Modern Family to also end in 2019 after a 10-year run.  Creators Steve Levitan and Christopher Lloyd stated ending the series would also coincide with the actors' contract cycles, but also allow the series to exit before the audience dwindles.

The critically-acclaimed series, which followed the three family households of the Pritchetts and Dunphys (and the bloated cast to follow suit), has been a landmark series for ABC as it carried them through lean ratings seasons.  It also helped the network reclaim the eroded sitcom block as the 2000's exhibited a lack of demand for comedies vs. the trendy reality TV. Modern Family, whose recent seasons have experienced erosion common with an aging series, draws in a 1.73 Live 18-49 Adult rating.  Modern Family debuted with a solid 3.9 in 2009, well under ratings juggernaut The Big Bang Theory's 5.3.  The following season, the dynamics shifted as MF accelerated to a 4.8 and The Big Bang Theory dropped to a 4.4.

By the 2011-12 season, Modern Family carved out its series high (6.4), as well as finishing the season in 5th place with a 5.54 L+7 rating.  The Big Bang Theory pushed past MF 's ratings in 2012, but the spoils continued for the sitcom, reaching 4th Place in the 2013-14 season with a 5.64 rating.  Since reaching that benchmark, ratings erosion for both shows has been ongoing, with 2017 marking the first time the series dropped below the 2.0 mark for Modern Family.  They still rule their respective networks, and will poetically bow out during the same era and timeframe.

Despite the news of the series ending, showrunners have hinted at a potential spinoff/continuation in development.  Given the large ensemble cast, writers and developers have a rich development bed to continue the series.

Aging Comedies: How Some Characters Age Better Than Others

How dumb was Joey on Friends, or Kelso on That 70s Show, or Haley on Modern Family? Depending on where in the series you look, you might end up with a different answer. As sitcoms go on, many of them exaggerate certain character traits. Characters that are dumb or weird are the best examples of this. As Friends lost some of its creative energy as it went along, Joey got stupider, and Phoebe got more bizarre. Similarly, while I really enjoyed the earlier seasons of That 70s Show, the show got tired as it went on. At the same time, Kelso went from a character who was like a dumb teenage boy that many people knew to a guy who is so stupid that you have no clue how he made it this far in life.

The reason that I have been thinking about this a lot recently is because of Modern Family. If you have read many of my reviews of the show, which I began posting here with its seventh season, you know how I have been disappointed with the show in its later years. Season nine has been especially disappointing, and a lot of that comes back to that tendency that I pointed out. After season seven, the series abandoned the character growth it had been working on for Haley, and in the ninth season she has become dumber and more vain. For example, in this week's 200th episode, she stares at her phone, which is in selfie mode, while her siblings reflect on how easy it is to film yourself in this day and age. Almost everything she does this season either has to do with how much she cares about her looks and what people think about her, or it has to do with her lower intelligence level. Similarly, while the series had advanced Alex from how awkward and nerdy she was earlier in the series, going from the girl worried about kissing a boy in season two's "The Kiss" to someone more confident, who dates a few guys. However, in the latest episode, a quick scene shows her feeding some cats when she was supposedly on a date, something she apparently does routinely.

Many comedies do things similar to that, particularly with their supporting characters. While they focus on having the main character or characters grow, they let the other characters become less nuanced and interesting. However, some comedies remain dedicated to all of their characters. One solid example of this is Brooklyn Nine-Nine. The series focuses on Jake, so obviously he is a character that has grown a lot from the start of the series to the fifth season that the show is currently in. But he isn't the only one. The most obvious example of this is Captain Holt. Like how he has changed Jake, Jake has changed him. He is still the kind of person that says things like that all music in English is rock music, but he is much more open to not being so by-the-book now. The mysterious and guarded Rosa seems like the type of character whose traits many sitcoms would exaggerate as the series goes on, but in recent episodes "99" and "Game Night" she opened up to her co-workers and friends about something very personal. She behaves in a way very true to her character about it, but it's obvious she isn't exactly the same as she was at the start of the series. Meanwhile, minor characters Hitchcock and Scully haven't grown since the start of the series, but their traits haven't been exaggerated either. The two are just as dumb and lazy as they always were.

My personal favorite example of a sitcom that develops its characters further as it goes on is The Middle. I particularly like to use this one to contrast with Modern Family, as they both began in the fall of 2009, and they are both family comedies. If you were to watch an episode from the first season of The Middle, and then watch one from the current ninth and final season, you would see that these characters really are the same people they have been since the beginning, though the kids in particular have really grown and changed as time went on. In the beginning, Axl was a lazy teenage boy who doesn't express his emotions, Sue was overlooked, unpopular, and couldn't make any group she tried out for, and Brick was a really strange kid who read and whispered to himself but didn't like interacting with others. Axl can still be lazy, Sue is still a dork and a klutz at times, and Brick is still weird, but now Axl generally puts more effort into things and expresses more often how he cares for the people he cares for, Sue isn't as awkward as she once was, helping Brad get a date in the latest episode, and she has been juggling some romantic interests recently, and Brick, at the start of this season, looked forward to an exciting sophomore year of high school, and thought that it might mean meeting girls who are interested in him.

When I get frustrated with a show like Modern Family, I try to remember how great it is that there are shows like Brooklyn Nine-Nine and The Middle that don't rely on characters playing stereotypes, but give many of their characters moments to learn and grow. What sitcoms have you been impressed with as they aged? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

2017-18 Week 4 Sitcom Scorecard -- The Goldbergs' 100th Episode Holds Permed Against Unilateral Drops

Written With To Much Explanation by Bridger Cunningham

As expected, the 2017-18 roster presents a lower Nielsen yield than previous seasons.  However, the bar has dropped for Leading The Pack to a record-lenient 1.35 Delta to enter the range.  And the Middle of the Pack is back to last season's bar with a 1.10, expected as the ranges become uneven or bottom-heavy.  And who hasn't noticed this article series' greatest blunder down below?  Everyone knows Dynasty is not intended as a sitcom, but has become a source of laughs which the show-runners should be honored to be roasted with.  That joke of a range is a placeholder as one regular show is edging dangerously low for an Anemic ranged show and will instigate the return of "The Abyss" when their average drops below 0.60.  Again, the Anemic classification is more lenient this season as lower yields are expected.  Speaking of 80's jokes, happy 100th episode, Goldbergs!  This week's episode gave us iconic visuals as Beverly sported a trend solid to the era without the mullet mocking.

Sunday, October 15 delivered an expected drop for FOX's non-inflated roster, surprisingly with decent results.  The Simpsons dropped nine-tenths to a 1.3 with plenty of room for movement.  Ghosted's 3rd episode delivered its true weight with a 1.0, again a hair above its 2016 fall predecessor  Son of Zorn, yet within a greater range of retention to its neighbors.  Family Guy dropped a mere two-tenths to a 1.2, as did Last Man On Earth with a 0.8.  Both shows are down from last year, yet the Sunday roster is boasting stable performance.

The same cannot be said for CBS Mondays.  October 16's The Big Bang Theory ticked down a tenth to a 2.8.  Down indeed from last year, yet TBBT was the 2nd highest-scripted show of the week!  9JLK dropped two-tenths to a 1.2, sadly setting a record-low post TBBT retention of 42%.  Last year's casualty The Great Indoors bottomed at 50% (1.4 out of 2.8), and 2014 failure The Millers held the previous low of 46% (2.1 our of a 4.5).  9JKL's ding-dong-ditch from the Nielsen ferry shaved another tenth off of Kevin Can Wait with a disappointing 1.1, and timeslot-troubled Me, Myself & I held sadly steady with a 0.9.

Tuesday, October 17 presented another round of general lows, with only Fresh off the Boat (1.1) and The Mick (0.8) holding steady.  The Middle ticked down to a 1.3, as did Brooklyn 99 with its series low 0.6.  Blackish (1.1) and the Mayor (0.8) hit series lows following a two-tenth drop.  Happily, Wednesday, October 18 presented a sturdy delivery with The Goldbergs' 100th episode (1.5), Speechless (1.1) and American Housewife (1.4) all holding their previous week's deliveries, while Modern Family ticked down a tenth (1.7)

And Must-See TV found NBC's trimming girth off its belt line.  Superstore held steady with a 1.1, and The Good Place reduced its weight to match that same measure.  The Will & Grace revival is still losing inches of its Nielsen fat, but the losses appear to be plateauing as this weeks 1.7 was only down one-tenth.  Sadly, Great News is NBC's Biggest Loser this week, having dropped two-tenths of its already light ratings to a 0.8

PERCENTAGE CHANGES

Only one show downgraded this week, as The Mayor slid from 55% odds of renewal to 45%.  So why is this Freshman series the target of a premature downgrade?  The Mayor, while sophisticated in quality and perhaps fitting with NBC's pallet, is cursed with a poor timeslot indeed.  However, it has hemorrhaged at an alarming rate, losing 27% of its already-weakened lead-in Black-ish' 1.1 rating.  ABC has three sitcoms (Alex, Inc, Roseanne and Splitting Up Together) on the bench looking to bat.  Upgrades are still a possibility, but it appears The Mayor's fate appears to be sealed.

Other shows stand poised for changes in status.  So who is eyeing a promotion?  Three more episodes of performance are needed to upgrade The Good Place and American Housewife to 90%, and the same benchmark will cement Superstore's and Family Guy's fates at 100%.  TGP and AH are enriching their network's rosters, yet they need 43-52 episodes beyond May 2018 to hit the syndication mark.  Superstore, however, needs 33 episodes and has three seasons coupled with an excellent use of leading timeslot in its favor.  And FG has passed syndication ages ago and stands as FOX's 2nd-highest rated sitcom.

The opposite trajectory awaits CBS freshmans 9JKL and Me, Myself & I, who already rest sadly at 45% renewal odds.  Unless 9JKL dips fractional out of its prime TBBT-lead-out, or MM&I sinks to a 0.7, these shows' fates will change in Week 7's Scorecard, due November 10.  This card will expose the shows' true weight minus TBBT in two showings.

Shows forecast for changes further into the season are Bob's Burgers, Ghosted, Last Man On Earth, Kevin Can Wait, Black-ish, The Mick, Speechless and Great News.  So why do they receive more ground before changes are warranted?  Let's examine their performance:

Bob's Burgers -- The durable FOX performer sits in the week's least-desirable timeslot on Sundays at 7:30.  And thus far, BB is performing above average early in the season.  However, a motion picture is planned for 2020, and FOX would be foolish to ax the show prior.  What else can handle this dreadful show-killing timeslot?

Ghosted -- Factors working in favor of this FOX freshman is it performs slightly above Son of Zorn, its surrounding sitcoms are down.  Factors working against are it has not plateaued, and the ratings are not "breathtaking".  Retention/Lead-Up to Simpsons and Family Guy will factor in over 8 episodes.

Last Man On Earth -- FOX's last Sunday picture show is down slightly, yet LMOE will reach 67 episodes by the season's close.  It is till straddling close to its series low (0.7).  But like BB, what else would FOX schedule on this evening?

Kevin Can Wait -- The Sophomore Sitcom could receive an upgrade in three weeks' time.  However, it continues to drop and has not plateaued.  Its odds of renewal run high as its competition is performing pitifully, and a precise gauge of performance will play out after the show's November 6 performance.

Black-ish -- The 4th season critical darling is an in-house ABC production, and it has proven resilient against NBC juggernaut This is Us.  It needs to hit its plateau to upgrade to 90%.  ABC would be foolish to cut Black-ish with The Middle exiting in 2018 and Speechless and The Mayor now the weakest links in the network's comedy roster.

The Mick -- Season 2 has disappointed and regularly taken 4th place in its timeslot.  However, surrounds Lethal Weapon and Brooklyn 99 are also fractional, so the premise has some salvaging leverage.  If the show delves deeper into fractional territory, it could downgrade.

Speechless -- Like Black-ish, Speechless is an in-house production and as of late registers 1.1 demos. It appears it has plateaued.  However, its lead-in and lead-out perform between 1.5-1.9 regularly, a stark difference which leaves disappointing egg on Speechless' face.  The show currently sits at a 70% renewal prediction and could change in November.

Great News -- Last year's lowest-rated renewal was given the prime Will and Grace lead-in to develop.  Out of that, it has performed between 0.8-1.3 out of W&G's 1.7-3.0 range.  The show has performed decently compared to past performance of failed NBC sitcoms in the 2010's despite this week's fractional drop.  W&G will only produce 16 episodes, so NBC needs sitcoms to paste in the roster between now and May.  If Great News can continue to perform closer to Superstore and The Good Place, it may see 2019.  If it continues belting out fractions, it's forked!

2010-11 Sitcom Scorecard -- CBS Champions Edgier Humor With Mike and Molly's Welcome Arrival

Written Profiling a Lorre of New Sitcoms by Bridger Cunningham

  The 2000's were meaner than a dog crappin' tax to sitcoms, drastically reducing their value against cheaper Reality TV scheduling.  Given Judd Apatow made a lucrative career in the late 2000's with raunchy toilet humor in the cinema fold, wholesome CBS emulated the trend and traded in their traditions and opted to push censors with suggestive dialogue.  The latest entry to join Two and a Half Men and The Big Bang Theory was Mike and Molly, whose drive was to profile a plus-sized, luckless couple finding true love.  It sounded wholesome, but the raunchiness pulled the rug out from under the genre, leading a landing strip for crass one-liners and a neatly manicured welcome mat in the last timeslot available on CBS' powerhouse Monday lineup.  The only fat jokes accepted were the hearty ratings Mike and Molly delivered.

Elsewhere, it was another lean and successful year for the genre with 24 entries, 17 of which returned the following season.  FOX Sundays delivered strong, ABC Wednesdays rebooted the franchise around sophomore hit Modern Family and NBC stuck with (mostly) sophisticated entries.

Leading the ABC charge, Modern Family led the charge, stealing the crown as the leading sitcom from The Big Bang Theory.  Other entries remained tepid at best as Modern Family and Cougar Town delivered mediocre ratings.  The last timeslot split between failure Better With You and mild success Happy Endings.  Over at CBS, Mondays reigned as Two and a Half Men, How I Met Your Mother and Mike and Molly delivered sharp ratings.  Rules of Engagement bounced between Mondays and Thursdays like a yoyo as The Big Bang Theory moved to an uncharted Thursday.  Profanely titled $h!t My Dad Says only sparked attention due to title as viewers realized that was the only interesting concept in this show.

NBC Thursdays stood behind The Office, Parks and Recreation and 30 Rock in an attempt to recolonize Thursdays.  Community's critical praise saved its town from annexation, while Outsourced and an embarrassing Paul Reiser Show were deported due to poor performances in timeslots.  Animation Domination produced hits on FOX, while live feeds struggled to perform as only critical darling Raising Hope returned.  This season was a lean helping of sitcoms yet demonstrated a change in tide to resurrect the genre.

Source -- http://ew.com/article/2011/05/25/2010-11-season-tv-ratings/