Welcome to the FINAL edition of ABC Renew/Cancel Watch of 2015. No, today is not Friday, but I took Christmas off from the site. This time, I've broken down the charts into comedy and drama for better comparison of similar shows.
Drama
Canceled
Watching
Certain to be Renewed
Blood & Oil
Castle
Grey’s Anatomy
Wicked City
Nashville
How to Get Away with Murder
Once Upon a Time
Quantico
Scandal
Wicked City was pulled from the schedule long ago, but good news for the few of you who watched: the next few episodes are now available on Hulu, with the rest to follow. This also means that ABC has no intention of getting a 0.0 broadcasting them. Blood & Oil was "trimmed", which means canceled, and I'm finally making the move of putting it in the "Canceled" category now that the season/series is over. I'm not doing a Pros and Cons list for them, since it's obvious that they have nothing going for them and everything going against them.
Showdown: Castle vs Nashville
I firmly think that with the cancellations of Blood & Oil and Wicked City, one of Castle and Nashville will surprise unless both The Family and Of Kings and Prophets are surprise hits.
Castle
Nashville
Nature
Procedural
Serial
Season Average (A18-49)
1.13
1.03
Range of Ratings (A18-49)
1.0-1.2
0.8-1.2
Lead-in Average (A18-49)
1.8
1.9
% Decline Year-to-Year
36%
27%
Syndication
Syndicated
Entering Syndication
Seasons
8
4
Ad Rate
$118,195
$92,965
Extraneous Factors
N/A
Music Sales/Tours
Most signs point to Castle getting the renewal over Nashville if you told me that one, and only one, will be renewed. However, the ad prices indicate that advertisers this season got more "bang for their buck" than Castle did, and the latter's ad price would have to drop dramatically for a final season. The extraneous factor of music sales is also in Nashville's favor. I'm "Watching" both right now--what do you think? Vote in the poll and leave your thoughts in the comments.
Comedy
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Watching
Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
Fresh Off The Boat
The Muppets
Last Man Standing
Blackish
Dr Ken
The Goldbergs
The Middle
Modern Family
Disregard what you might see on some other sites, The Middle is a certain renewal along with the rest of the Wednesday comedies. As long as Dr Ken holds decently and The Real O'Neals/Uncle Buck don't magically start doing 2.0s, it's also a certain renewal. That leaves us with Last Man Standing, The Muppets, and Fresh Off The Boat, which I placed in three different categories but comparisons can still be made.
Showdown: Last Man Standing vs Fresh Off The Boat
Like Castle and Nashville, I think one of Last Man Standing and Fresh Off The Boat will eek out a renewal, while the other will be cancelled. Unlike Castle and Nashville, I think Last Man Standing has much more going for it than Fresh Off The Boat--except for Tim Allen's contract. Here's a side-by-side comparison as to what I consider to be some of the most important factors:
Last Man Standing
Fresh Off The Boat
Nature
Multi-Cam (Friday)
Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)
1.25
1.51
Range of Ratings (A18-49)
1.1-1.3
1.2-1.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)
N/A
1.5 (but has settled around 1.1-1.2)
% Decline Year-to-Year
3%
16%
Syndication
Just entered (ABC Family, Hallmark, CMT)
N/A
Seasons
5
2
Ad Rate
$64,881
$122,212
Extraneous Factors
Tim Allen’s contract
First Asian-American led show on broadcast in 25 years; does well in that demo
It appears that Last Man Standing is doing remarkable this season because of two factors: one is that it is in constant rotation in syndication, the other being the strength of lead-out Dr Ken. However, ABC doesn't make any money off of its syndication revenue, and Tim Allen may become too
TelevisionPromos
expensive for the show. The show also appears to be undervalued in ad revenue, which is what ABC does make money off of; I'm willing to bet it would be higher in a potential Season 6. Meanwhile, Fresh Off The Boat is valued almost as high as The Middle and The Goldbergs, but is getting much lower ratings. It's understandable why it would be priced so high, as The Muppets was a huge disappointment, but ABC would have to lower the price for this show dramatically next season, and won't make any money off of a potential syndication deal down the road. Not to mention it may go fractional in the spring. The edge is given to Last Man Standing on this one, but if Tim Allen is too expensive, it might just be Fresh Off The Boat's lucky day.
And Then There's The Muppets
Oops, wrong muppets
Credit: Wikia
Oh, The Muppets: ABC's weakest comedy that currently has a 1.5 A18-49 average, even though it hasn't seen a number above that since October 6. All the recent airings have been in the low 1s, and the ratings are a massive disappointment. The most recent episode was watched by just 38% of the audience that watched the series premiere, indicating that audiences have rejected the show. Deemed a "limited series", it received a short backorder and is claimed to being retooled--aka, ABC spent too much money advertising this show to let it go out like this, and are taking extra measures to try to get it to improve. This includes airing reruns at 8:30 on Tuesdays instead of 8, where it will get a fellow prime time show as a lead-in, as well as the aforementioned retooling. If it gets another season, let's hope it doesn't take a spot from a higher-rated any other ABC comedy, and that it's on the bench or airs in between cycles of Once Upon a Time or a TGIT show. Those are all plausible solutions for the show that advertisers are
That's better
Credit: ABC
probably kicking themselves from investing money into, as an additional $3,000-$4,000 they could have gotten a spot on fellow ABC comedies The Middle or The Goldbergs, which get almost double the ratings. Or they could have grabbed a spot during Dr Ken, which has about the same ratings as The Muppets but half the ad price. And you thought the deals you got on Black Friday were good. Though, it really should be noted that based on its ad rate ABC didn't expect as much out of the show as the media did--but they still expected it to do a lot better than it did. And oh yeah, The Muppets are owned by Disney, which also owns ABC. What a coincidence! Will corporate demand this show get another season, or are its low ratings going to make the show one-and-done?
Unsurprisingly, ABC has pulled flop drama Wicked City from the schedule. It's most recent episode had an abysmal 0.4 A18-49 demo ratings, one of the worst in-season performances ever on broadcast television. It is to be replaced by reruns of Shark Tank.
What do you think of this news? Let us know in the comments below!
In spite of reviling criticism, I gave Wicked City a chance. As several predicted, it rated poorly and will likely be forgotten, like Lucky 7 was 2 seasons ago. So why did this show sink like a dead body weighted with cinder blocks? 2015-16 has proven if the viewers truly love a show, its Freshman season will rate mediocre at the least. While Wicked $p!tty (for those of you who know my humor, I'm avoiding using the word I'm thinking of out of respect for keeping this website PG durin g its Freshman season) may have premiered opposite the world series. the remaining scripted series on this evening did not not fare such a mangled delivery as a 0.9.
So why was this show DOA upon premiere. The bottom line is networks are seeking the covered 18-49 female demo, and women likely are not interested in a show which treats women in a misogynistic manner. True, Law and Order: SVU depicts several vile acts against women, but it also features strong women combating these senseless acts. Wicked City displayed a woman gruesomely stabbed during a sexual act, then dismembered in a disturbing manner. It also displayed raunchy and kinky sexual behavior against women. Why would a woman in a key demographic enjoy watching women mutilated by a killer getting away with such vile acts? CBS' Stalker was a prime example of critical revile of poor treatment of women. And CBS gladly tied that show to cinder blocks and dumped it into a river.
ABC should have examined its shows which sport higher demographic ratings to notice a visible trend. Grey's Anatomy, Scandal and How to Get Away With Murder feature strong leading females who are not subjected to misogynistic behavior. Grey's has had its share of violence, yet it does not resort to gruesome acts of violence as its mainstream plotting device. Could you see these shows dropping in interest and ratings if their leading heroines endured violent acts, rape, etc....? Women prefer to use TV to escape and marvel at strong and powerful women displaying positive portrayals of their gender. If we want to see such hideous acts, viewers just have to turn on the local news.
ABC
Wicked City had great potential, but misfired with the premise and plots. Had the leading characters committed violent acts against both genders motivated by robbery or thrill, a la Bonnie and Clyde, viewers may have been intrigued. Wicked City sports attractive actors, decently-built characters, multi-layered plotting and a nostalgic backdrop. All these assets are awash in another bloodbath by the gruesome plots. Unless a higher power knows how to transform the show's blood loss into wine,
Wicked City is surely drowning in its own blood and will see a 0.6 rating in upcoming weeks. Excuses are thin, and ABC misfired. ABC would be wise to only invest in shows which bolster positive atmosph eres for women.
Wicked City premieres at 10/9c on ABC. With that time slot being a trouble spot for the network in recent years, many are not expecting Wicked City to do all that well. Will it do surprisingly well for the time slot (like Quantico on Sunday), or will it fail like all the other recent Tuesday entries? For some perspective, the year-ago episode of Forever had a 1.1 A18-49 rating, and two years ago ABC was running reruns of Shark Tank and Scandal, as Lucky 7 was already long gone with its 0.7 second episode rating.
Sunday: 7:00 -- America's Funniest Home Videos 8:00 -- Once Upon a Time 9:00 -- New Drama 10:00 -- Quantico
Monday: 8:00 -- The Middle
8:30 -- New Sitcom
9-11pm -- DWTS/The Bachelor
Tuesday 8:00 -- The Muppets/New Sitcom 8:30 -- Fresh Off The Boat 9:00 -- Marvel's Agents Of Shield 10:00 -- Nashville/New Drama
Wednesday 8:00 -- blackish 8:30 -- The Goldbergs 9:00 -- Modern Family 9:30 -- New Sitcom 10:00 -- New Drama
Thursday 8:00 -- Greys Anatomy 9:00 -- Scandal 10:00 How to Get Away With Murder
Friday 8:00 -- Last Man Standing/New Sitcom 9:00 -- Dr. Ken 10:00 -- 20/20
ABC
ABC needs to capitalize on its assets, mainly its sitcoms. It boasts 8 choices, but I foresee Mondays being ripe for the taking. Mondays are fading as DWTS and the Bachelor cannot overtake The Voice. Castle is eroding and very likely will see S8 as its last. Instead of gambling on another risky 10pm timeslot, moving the reality platform from 9-11pm may be its best choice, and ABC would fare better developing the 8-9pm hour. Viewers have complained about CBS's underwhelming sitcom delivery on Mondays, and the Middle has proven its viewers are built in. After 7 solid seasons on Wednesdays, it could easily help build another sitcom landing, and would help launch another sitcom at 8:30. Tuesdays are too soon to tell, as the only likely renewals are Fresh Off the Boat and Marvel's Agents of Shield. Regardless if the Muppets return, another sitcom is needed in the 8pm timeslot. If Wicked City does not fare well, the 10pm hour may present a marketable timeslot if Nashville receives a S5 pickup. Wednesdays are due for a slight shakeup. I elect to move blackish to the 8pm slot, as it will likely outlive Middle as it will realistically have 9 seasons. Goldbergs needs more development if Modern Family fades, and the 9:30 timeslot needs a new sitcom. 10pm may provide ripe soil as CBS's delivery is weak in in this timeslot. And Sunday will need to repair its only deficiency at 9pm.
