ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: The Real O'Neals Not Necessary For Comedy Expansion

Canceled	Certain to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
Blood & Oil	Agent Carter	The Real O’Neals	The Catch	American Crime		Blackish
Of Kings and Prophets	The Family		Nashville	Castle		Fresh Off The Boat
Wicked City	Galavant			Dr Ken		The Goldbergs
	The Muppets			Last Man Standing		Grey’s Anatomy
						How to Get Away with Murder
						Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD
						The Middle
						Modern Family
						Once Upon a Time
						Quantico
						Scandal

Why is The Real O'Neals "Likely to be Canceled"?

Last night, The Real O'Neals posted a paltry 0.8 with a rerun of Fresh Off The Boat as a lead-in. With that, it could only tie Fresh Off The Boat in the key A18-49 demo, and according to Spotted Ratings' time-slot adjusted "True" metric, its number was weaker than Fresh Off The Boat's. It's going to look even uglier when the Wednesday comedies do even better in reruns. The Real O'Neals got ample exposure but is not showing any signs of life anymore, unlike Fresh Off The Boat last season. It's the weakest ABC comedy, and I simply don't think it's needed at that low of numbers. Even if given a lead-in upgrade, there is only so far it can rise. If the Friday multi-cams come back and ABC decides to add an extra comedy hour, they would have to premiere 3 new comedies in the fall. Now, a comedy expansion is pretty much impossible if the Friday comedies don't come back, and even then they would only need to premiere 2 or 3 new comedies. Now, let's take a look at how many they've premiered in recent years:

2015-16: The Muppets, Dr Ken, + 13-episode-old Fresh Off The Boat

2014-15: Manhattan Love Story, Selfie, Blackish, Cristela

2013-14: The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Back in the Game, Super Fun Night

So premiering 3 new comedies really isn't all that far-fetched. In fact, it would be on par or less than normal. For a time there I had a hunch that The Real O'Neals would get renewed, but the ratings are the ratings and I don't know if you can positively spin what just happened. 

What's Next?

The plan is to get everything out of the Watching column no later than Friday, May 6, aka two weeks from this upcoming Friday. Right now, The Real O'Neals and Castle are the most "bubble-ish" shows of those not in the Watching column, but as I explained above, I think it is increasingly likely that The Real O'Neals isn't coming back. They have a couple plausible options as to how to fit 3 new comedies onto the fall schedule, if they plan to expand comedies that is. What do you think is most likely, readers?

Nashville and The Catch are on the bubble for now. I'm keeping a watch on the development of Still Star-Crossed, which I think is the main hurdle in the way of a renewal for The Catch, and I'm keeping an eye on the Castle contracts to see if Nashville still has a fighting chance. 

What do you think of these predictions? What are your own predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

ABC: A Look Ahead At The Real O'Neals and The Family

Tonight (Wednesday March 2), ABC will premiere new comedy The Real O'Neals about an Irish-Catholic family that isn't as perfect as it may seem. The show has received mixed reviews so far, some calling it right on brand for ABC's comedy department, others saying that the family doesn't seem as "real" as the title implies, and others find it downright offensive. My guess is that it will premiere at least respectfully, but the real test is when it airs Tuesday at 8:30 for the rest of its run.

Tomorrow (Thursday March 3), ABC will premiere new Shondaland drama The Family after Grey's Anatomy, not to be confused with fellow upcoming Shondaland drama The Catch, nor the Shondaland comedy in development, nor the Shondaland shows that make up the entirety of ABC's
Thursday prime time schedule. Point is, Shonda Rhimes' production company is almost certainly at its peak with ABC, and if the ratings are at least modest, will The Family get the benefit of the doubt in order to keep a growing relationship?

It should be a different week for ABC considering some of their top shows (The Middle, Scandal, and Blackish) are off for the series premieres of The Real O'Neals and The Family. How do you think they will fare for the rest of the season? Will the squeak out a renewal? Let us know in the comment section below, but first, here are my predictions.

The Real O'Neals

PREDICTION: The Real O'Neals won't be a Fresh Off The Boat, which arguably over-performed by itself on Tuesday, but it won't be a huge flop either. Starts in the mid to high 1s tonight, and declines on Tuesdays. Doesn't go fractional, but settles around a 1.0-1.1, some of the 1.0s will be rounded up. ABC decides that they don't need it. Cancelled.

The Family
I think The Family will pull a Resurrection, just to a smaller scale due to league average declines since 2013. This season, the league average is a 1.54 A18-49 average, compared to the 1.88 two seasons ago.

PREDICTION: Premieres high to a 3.1, declines throughout the season, ends at a 1.7, renewed, collapses. I could be way overestimating though; based on the ad rate ABC may be valuing this one in the low 1s. Still good enough for renewal? Possible.

Predict the Ratings for The Goldbergs and The Real O'Neals

NOTE: I can't get PollDaddy to work properly, so please vote in the comments! Remember, now you can guest comment, meaning you don't need to create a Disqus account to comment.

The Goldbergs
The Goldbergs is airing at a special time: Wednesday at 8, meaning that for the first time in its three-season run it will have to self-start. ABC is definitely hoping that the fact it's a Dirty Dancing tribute that was advertised during The Oscars will give it the ratings it needs to survive there and launch The Real O'Neals. So, how will it do? Personally, I think lower viewing levels + Oscar promotion = same-ish ratings. I don't expect a big bump this season like last season since there's no Charlie Sheen, but the Oscar promotion will probably allow it to gain back the tenth or two it would have lost if aired at 8pm without its Middle lead-in.


The Real O'Neals

Deadline

After The Goldbergs, ABC premieres new sitcom The Real O'Neals, about a "seemingly perfect Irish-Catholic family" who reveals all their secrets. The parents are getting a divorce, the mom is basically the Beverly Goldberg of her religion, one of the sons is gay, the other is anorexic, and the
daughter is an atheist. Reviews for the show so far have seemingly been OK, although it has been panned for making jokes about anorexia and the values of executive producer Dan Savage. This show does not make the air without controversy, but will pure interest outweigh that? To put things into context, Fresh Off The Boat premiered to a 2.5 at 8:30 and a 2.3 at 9:30 when it had its premiere in the same position 13 short months ago. Boat was also arguably a higher-profile premiere though, being the first broadcast show in decades to feature an Asian-American family.