On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Lead Actor and Actress in a Comedy Series categories. They are two very different races. On the Actor side, a few recent runner-ups are going for their first win while on the Actress side, a legend will be going for her fifth win in the last six years.
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Last year's winner (Seth Rogen) is not eligible this year in the Lead Actor in a Comedy Series category. It probably means we will get a new winner in the category though there is one previous winner in the mix. Jeremy Allen White won for the first two seasons of The Bear and is eligible for a fourth season. Few expect him to win but he could still get on the list of nominees. It's not a sure thing by any means though as The Bear has dropped off the Emmy priority list.
The sentimental favorite is surely Martin Short. Nominated four times for Only Murders in the Building, Short has endured another personal tragedy with the death of his daughter in recent months. He'll surely get nominated again with a good chance to win. His co-star Steve Martin has been more hit and miss as a nominee. He's gotten in twice and missed twice so far for Only Murders. This should be his year to get back in as he seems to get nominated every other year but we'll see.
If Short doesn't end up winning, it will likely be Jason Segel up on the stage. A near lock for a nomination for a third time for Shrinking, Segel is in a strong position. Adam Brody was nominated last year for Nobody Wants This and could get in again if the Emmys choose to keep the status quo (they could easily have all of last year's nominees except Rogen back), but the buzz seems to be slipping for Nobody Wants This and Brody feels most susceptible to being overtaken by newcomers.
Who are those "newcomers"? Well, it starts with Steve Carell. A six time nominee but never winner (sigh) in this category for The Office, Carell is back in the mix for his new HBO comedy Rooster. Rooster received mixed reviews but Carell is well-liked and his performance was generally well received so he seems pretty likely to get in. A bigger wildcard is Matthew Rhys for Widow's Bay. The horror comedy has been coming on strong in recent weeks, but will it be enough for Rhys to get in? I'm a bit skeptical with the late premiere date and the genre but it does seem like people are paying attention to the show.
After those already listed, it feels like the rest are more longshots. That starts with Tim Robinson for The Chair Company and recent Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke for The Lowdown. Both shows certainly have their fans but both the shows and the lead performances might be an acquired taste more suitable for a Critics list than an awards show. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II might have had a decent chance of getting in if Wonder Man stayed in Limited, but he's got a tougher hill to climb for Comedy. Dan Levy was an Emmy winner for Schitt's Creek but I don't think his new Big Mistakes broke through enough critically or with audiences for him to get in. Despite some buzz for The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins, I don't see it happening for Tracy Morgan. And while he seemed like he was very much in the mix last year and perhaps just missed a nomination last year, it doesn't seem like Ted Danson is nearly as close for the second season of A Man on the Inside. And while, as mentioned, defending champ Seth Rogen is ineligible for The Studio, he is eligible for Platonic but I don't see that happening.
A few dark horses really aren't worth mentioning but I will anyway just for fun: Glen Powell for Chad Powers, Nicolas Cage for Spider-Noir, Zach Braff for Scrubs and Owen Wilson for Stick.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
2. Jason Segel, Shrinking
3. Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
4. Steve Carell, Rooster
5. Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Just Behind
6. Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
7. Matthew Rhys, Widow's Bay
8. Ethan Hawke, The Lowdown
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
She's been on an absolute Emmy tear this decade and it's the final time that Jean Smart can be awarded for Hacks. She has won for every season of the show and looks to wrap up a 5 for 5 run for the final season. The winner discussion can come later though. Smart is a definite lock to get nominated and enters the race as the favorite to finish her run on top.
There was one year this decade where Hacks was not eligible and during that season, Quinta Brunson took the win for Abbott Elementary. While Abbott's strongest Emmy days are most likely behind it, it would be a big surprise if Brunson doesn't get back in for a fifth straight year. Another former winner is in the mix too. Ayo Edebiri won for The Bear in 2023 but in the Supporting Actress category. Since moving to Lead, she hasn't been able to get past Queen Jean and now her chances have probably ended despite a prominent role in the fourth season of The Bear. She may even be on the outside looking in for a nomination.
Despite the returning winners, the biggest threat to Smart winning again could very well be Lisa Kudrow for the third and final season of The Comeback. She was nominated for the first season way back in 2006 and again for the second season in 2015. She seems very likely to get in for the return of the show and it's not outside the realm of possibility that she could upset Smart for the win. Elle Fanning is very well-liked and her performance in the first season of Margo's Got Money Troubles was well-received. That show is one where I have no idea how the Emmy voters are going to feel about it. Another new show actress to keep an eye on is Keke Palmer for The Burbs and while she has a chance, I would be surprised if she ends up getting a nod.
The next two worth mentioning are Kristen Bell for Nobody Wants This and Kristen Wiig for Palm Royale. Both are former nominees but Palm Royale was cancelled and, as mentioned above, Nobody Wants This seems to be losing steam. While they could sneak in, especially Bell, the competition is a little bit more fierce than when they were nominated before. That also applies to Selena Gomez, who has only been nominated once for Only Murders in the Building and seems to be staring at an uphill climb again. Maya Rudolph is also a former nominee for Loot but the chances of her returning seem very slim, though her nomination was a surprise last time too. And yet another former nominee is Jenna Ortega for Wednesday but I don't see her getting back in. It's probably not worth mentioning but Natasha Lyonne is also a former nominee for Poker Face but she's not getting back in.
The list of not-quite-but-almost dark horses includes Rachel Sennott for I Love LA, Rose Byrne for Platonic and Laura Linney for American Classic. I'd be surprised to see any of them but maybe a bit less surprised if it was recent Oscar nominee Byrne. Elsbeth moved from Drama to Comedy but I don't think the results will be any different for Carrie Preston. Finally, a few real dark horses include Kate Hudson for Running Point, Malin Akerman and Brittany Snow for The Hunting Wives and Tina Fey for The Four Seasons.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Jean Smart, Hacks
2. Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
3. Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
4. Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
5. Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles
Just Behind
6. Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
7. Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
8. Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Next Week: Lead Actor & Actress in a Comedy Series!
