The NBC Renew/Cancel returns this week, as NBC's scripted shows begin to return from the summer hiatus. In this first edition, a new entry gets its first-ever prediction, while venerable veterans return in unusually weakened condition. Keep reading to see where Brilliant Minds and the Chicagos will wind up after their first airings!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Brilliant Minds (0.29)
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.38)
Chicago Med (0.33)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago PD (0.34)
Yet to Premiere:
Found
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
Happy's Place
The Hunting Party
The Irrational
Law & Order
Law & Order: SVU
Lopez vs Lopez
Night Court
Saturday Night Live
St. Denis Medical
Suits: LA
Brilliant Minds: The first of (potentially) four new dramas to premiere this season on NBC, and the only one with a fall berth, Brilliant Minds got off to a mediocre start on Monday with just a 0.29 in the demo behind a 0.48 from The Voice. Its retention was slightly better than High Potential's premiere after the much higher-rated Dancing with the Stars last week, and it's also stronger than the retention for last year's premiere of The Irrational. However, a 0.29 debut for a new show doesn't give it much room to fall. The show doesn't seem to be making a splash on Peacock so far, having dropped out of the top ten TV shows on the service just two days after its premiere became available to stream there. Obviously, its performance on Peacock won't be the sole determining factor, but it would certainly benefit the show to have a strong streaming presence in a world where same-day ratings are less of a factor in renewal decisions than ever. I'll give the show the benefit of the doubt so far, considering how lenient NBC has recently been with its freshman dramas (Quantum Leap and The Irrational both put up ratings that were arguably cancelation worthy in their freshman seasons, but were spared), but with so many other freshmen on the bench, that leniency may not last for very long. It's a very shaky start, but it LEANS RENEWAL until we get a bit more data.
Chicago Fire: Last season's #2 drama, and #4 scripted show, Chicago Fire returned this week looking heavily weakened. While it remained the highlight of the Chicago lineup, this was still a new series low for the once-mighty drama, coming in two hundredths below its previous series low. That low, a 0.04 for its season finale in May, was already an unusually poor showing, making this result even more surprising. This 0.38 season premiere is 40% lower than the 0.63 it got for its season premiere last year, which is even steeper than the 30% year-to-year declines it was experiencing at the end of its previous season. 0.63 was enough for the show to have the highest premiere of any drama last season, an achievement it will certainly not replicate this season, as freshman drama Matlock already surpassed that showing for its premiere on Sunday. While this premiere rating still puts it ahead of the league average, and should keep it safe, you can't help but wonder how much longer the show can go on at this level. As evidenced by the numerous cast exits, it's pretty expensive for a procedural drama, and it doesn't have quite as lucrative a syndication deal as Chicago PD does. The show is very unlikely to end this season, and may well end up as NBC's #1 scripted show of the season despite these declines, but it is starting to look like the end could be near. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL for now, mostly just as a precautionary measure until we see how this season shakes out .
Chicago Med: Chicago Med also returned this week, and again showed that it's the weakest of the Chicago trio. Despite airing at 8 PM, it was the lowest-rated of the lineup, coming in a staggering 47% lower than its season nine debut back in January. Its 0.33 was by far a series low, and is only a bit above the league average. Perhaps this is a fluke rating, and it won't go much lower than this, but if not, we could see it dropping below the league average by spring, much like Dick Wolf's other 8 PM show on NBC, Law & Order. Unlike the other two Chicagos, Chicago Med doesn't have any syndication deal in place, and it's also weaker on Peacock than either of them. In every single aspect, it's the least valuable Chicago for NBC. With NBC devoting more of their schedule to sports in the coming seasons, meaning less room for scripted, space on the schedule is harder to come by. If NBC decides they don't want to continue devoting an entire night to the Chicago block, this is the one they will cut. Chicago Med is likely to rate ahead of most of NBC's drams this season, so NBC will still likely choose it over shows like Brilliant Minds, The Irrational, and other freshman dramas that rate lower than it, but for the first time in a while, I think this show finds itself in a bit of trouble. Not much trouble - I really do anticipate that it will make it to season ten - but I don't think it's a lock. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
