CBS Power Rankings: Early Renew/Cancel Predictions for An Uncertain Season

 

Renew/Cancel Wrap-Up 2020: Comparing Our Record Other Websites’ Predictions

The 2019-20 broadcast television season has come to a close, and every renew/cancel decision has been made (except for The CW’s Katy Keene, which is unanimously predicted to be renewed.)

For an easier read, below will be a table of shows where not every website agreed on a prediction.

The following shows were universally incorrectly predicted by all websites:

Hawaii Five-0
Duncanville
Broke
Man With A Plan
Schooled

All shows on neither lists were correct predictions for all websites. There are 57 of those shows. The Baker And The Beauty would have made 58 had TV Grim Reaper not abstain by considering it a summer show.

As you can see, we correctly predicted more shows and incorrectly predicted less shows than the other websites. This is not the first time The TV Ratings Guide has come in first; in fact, in our five years of doing renew/cancel columns, we were more accurate than everybody else more often than not.

There were no instances in which we incorrectly predicted something that everyone else correctly predicted. On the flip side, there were two cases of us being the only website to correctly predict a certain show: Single Parents and Stumptown. The latter spent its fair share of time in our cancelation category, but ultimately was a renewal prediction at the end.

It always hurts to get a prediction wrong. We know fans of shows have seen our predictions before, and the worst outcome possible is predicting a renewal, only to see the show get canceled. Luckily, there was only one instance where not all websites were in unison where we predicted a renewal for a canceled show: Bless This Mess.

Speaking of which, there was one fan of a certain show that had a strong opinion on one of our incorrect predictions:

Well, at least we can say the creator of The Resident took the time to click on the link and check out our predictions.

Here is a quick table with the overall hit-miss record for every website:

Now, let’s have a brief discussion on the five shows everyone missed.

Hawaii Five-0 was far and away the biggest shocker. The ratings were more than passable for Fridays, and the final season announcement was not made public until weeks before the series finale. It’s been said to be more of a decision made by the show and not the network, but it has to be wondered if CBS figured they can move on by having MacGyver and Magnum P.I. be Friday staples instead.

Broke, Man With A Plan, and Schooled all had very similar situations: their same-day ratings were solid at best, and their delayed-viewing ratings were far from impressive. Still, Man With A Plan was 19 episodes away from what used to be the magic 88 episode syndication number, and the show seemed syndication-friendly. Schooled appears to be a case of being on a network wanting to cut comedy hours, and Broke was seemingly not seen as a priority by CBS.

It is well known that FOX is looking to expand their slate of animated comedies in the near future. With The Simpsons reportedly not making them money now that Disney owns it (maybe it does when FOX NOW is factored in?,) and Family Guy aging, it’s easy to see why they would want more animated comedies. They had already renewed Bless The Harts, a time slot half-hit with almost nonexistent delayed viewing ratings. Duncanville went under a million viewers in same-day viewing sometimes, and was a hit by no means. FOX claims it did well on FOX NOW, their free, ad-supported streaming website, although there is no way for any prediction website to find out just how well it did. It appears FOX is very serious about finding a new animated block without their staples. Who knows, maybe it will eventually catch on in syndication like Bob’s Burgers did. Plus, Family Guy didn’t exactly do great at the beginning either. Then again, neither did Bordertown, Allen Gregory, or Napoleon Dynamite.

So yes, we did have our fair share of incorrect predictions, but we also had more key hits than anyone else. We are not asking anyone to read our predictions and ignore the other websites, but we do hope you take our predictions seriously.

TV Ratings Guide's Full Renew/Cancel Predictions--November 27

Last season, we had more correct predictions than both The Cancel Bear and TV Grim Reaper. So, let's take a look at our predictions for this season so far!

ABC

Certain to be Canceled
Conviction
Notorious

Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken
The Real O'Neals
Secrets & Lies
Quantico

Toss-Up
Agents of SHIELD

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat
Last Man Standing
Modern Family
Once Upon a Time

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife
Black-ish
Designated Survivor
The Goldbergs
Grey's Anatomy
How to Get Away with Murder
The Middle
Speechless

CBS

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	3.1 / 3.8 / 3.45	-7.5%
2	Kevin Can Wait	1.3 / 2.7 / 2.04	--
3	NCIS	1.7 / 2.2 / 1.91	-13.7%
4	Bull	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.76	--
5	The Great Indoors	1.6 / 1.9 / 1.75	--
6	Criminal Minds	1.3 / 1.9 / 1.57	-12.2%
7	2 Broke Girls	1.3 / 1.7 / 1.50	-6.6%
8	NCIS: LA	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.48	+12.1%
9	Mom	1.3 / 1.5 / 1.42	-16.2%
10	Man with a Plan	1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42	--
11	Life in Pieces	1.3 / 1.5 / 1.40	-30.2%
13	NCIS: New Orleans	1.2 / 1.5 / 1.33	-23.9%
12	Scorpion	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.30	-26.5%
14	Hawaii Five-0	1.2 / 1.4 / 1.25	+9.7%
15	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.21	-2.2%
16	MacGyver	0.9 / 1.7 / 1.18	--
17	The Odd Couple	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.04	-26.2%
18	Madam Secretary	0.8 / 1.1 / 1.01	-10.0%
19	Code Black	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.98	-22.8%
20	Pure Genius	0.9 / 1.0 / 0.94	--
21	Elementary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.73	-23.7%

The CW

FOX

NBC

CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED

• None

LIKELY TO BE CANCELED

• Blindspot 
• Timeless 

COULD GO EITHER WAY

• The Blacklist 

LIKELY TO BE RENEWED

• The Good Place 
• Superstore

CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED

• Chicago Fire 
• Chicago Med 
• Chicago P.D. 
• Law & Order: SVU 
• This Is Us

Renew/Cancel Watch: Full Prediction Compilation

Ahead of upfronts, make this your go-to page for our current predictions for renewals and
cancelations.

ABC

Canceled	Renewed
Blood & Oil	Blackish
Of Kings and Prophets	Fresh Off The Boat
Wicked City	The Goldbergs
Agent Carter	Grey’s Anatomy
The Family	How to Get Away with Murder
Galavant	Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD
The Muppets	The Middle
Castle	Modern Family
Nashville	Once Upon a Time
	Quantico
	Scandal
	American Crime
	Dr Ken
	The Catch
	The Real O’Neals
	Last Man Standing

CBS
UPDATE: Life in Pieces Renewed, CSI: Cyber Canceled, Supergirl Renewed by The CW

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	3.0 / 4.7 / 3.75	-12.8%
2	NCIS	1.9 / 2.7 / 2.20	-8.3%
3	Life in Pieces	1.7 / 2.6 / 2.00	--
4	Criminal Minds	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.79	-28.4%
5	Scorpion	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.77	-23.0%
6	NCIS: New Orleans	1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75	-16.7%
7	Mom	1.5 / 1.8 / 1.67	-27.4%
8	Supergirl	1.3 / 3.1 / 1.67	--
9	2 Broke Girls	1.4 / 1.7 / 1.61	-19.5%
10	The Odd Couple	1.3 / 1.7 / 1.55	-29.5%
11	Mike & Molly	1.3 / 1.7 / 1.52	-22.1%
12	Angel from Hell	1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42	--
13	Limitless	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.35	--
14	Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.33	--
15	NCIS: LA	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.31	-18.1%
16	Code Black	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26	--
17	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25	-3.8%
18	Madam Secretary	0.9 / 2.0 / 1.21	-16.0%
19	Person of Interest	- / 1.2 / 1.20	-21.6%
20	Hawaii Five-0	1.0 / 1.4 / 1.13	-5.8%
21	The Good Wife	0.9 / 1.4 / 1.04	-13.3%
22	Elementary	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.97	-25.4%
23	Rush Hour	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.93	--
24	CSI: Cyber	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91	-35.0%

FOX

Canceled	Renewal Predicted	Renewed
Minority Report	The X-Files	The Simpsons
Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life		Bob’s Burgers
Bordertown		Empire
Grandfathered		Scream Queens
The Grinder		Bones
Second Chance		Gotham
		Brooklyn 9-9
		The Last Man On Earth
		Lucifer
		Rosewood
		New Girl
		Family Guy
		Sleepy Hollow

NBC

CANCELED

• Heroes Reborn
• The Player
• Truth Be Told
• You, Me and the Apocalypse
• Heartbeat
• Game of Silence
• Undateable
• Telenovela
• Crowded

RENEWAL PREDICTED

• The Mysteries of Laura (51%)
• The Carmichael Show (85%)

RENEWED

• The Blacklist
• Blindspot
• Chicago Fire
• Chicago Med
• Chicago P.D.
• Grimm
• Law & Order: SVU
• Shades of Blue
• Superstore

Full NBC Renew/Cancel Watch found here: http://tvratingsguide.blogspot.com/2016/05/nbc-renewcancel-watch-final-predictions.html

Reality

Show	Network	Renew or Cancel? And Percent Chance of Prediction	Prediction
Undercover Boss (F)*	CBS	Renewal Predicted (95%)
MasterChef Junior(F)*	FOX	Renewal Predicted (100%)
The Biggest Loser*	NBC	Renewal Predicted (100%)
What Would You Do*	ABC	Renewal Predicted (95%)
Hollywood Game Night*	NBC	Renewal Predicted (90%)
Caught on Camera With Nick Cannon	NBC	Renewal Predicted (90%)
The Great Holiday Baking Show*	ABC	Renewal Predicted (95%)
World’s Funniest(F)*	FOX	Renewal Predicted (85%)
Beyond The Tank	ABC	Cancellation Predicted (70%)
Bachelor Live*	ABC	Cancellation Predicted (85%)
American Grit	FOX	Cancellation Predicted (95%)
Strong	NBC	Cancellation Predicted (100%)
My Diet Is Better Than Yours*	ABC	Cancellation Predicted (100%)
Best Time Ever*	NBC	Cancelled	Toss Up
Hell’s Kitchen	FOX	Renewed	Renewal
The Voice	NBC	Renewed	Renewal
Little Big Shots	NBC	Renewed	Renewal
Survivor	CBS	Renewed	Renewal
The Amazing Race	CBS	Renewed	Renewal
Dancing With The Stars	ABC	Renewed	Renewal
The Bachelor*	ABC	Renewed	Renewal
Shark Tank	ABC	Renewed	Renewal
The Great Christmas Light Fight*	ABC	Renewed	Renewal
America’s Next Top Model*	CW/VH1	Renewed	Renewal

*Means a show has finished airing for the season, and it will no longer be updated.

Full Reality Renew/Cancel Watch found here: http://tvratingsguide.blogspot.com/2016/05/reality-shows-renewcancel-watch-final.html

The CW Nothing much going down right now with our 10-hour network when it comes to renewals and cancelations, but limited series Containment is a predicted cancelation.