Fox Renew/Cancel Week 12: Snake Oil Is No King Cobra, But That’s Okay

December 16th Predictions 

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 12 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this fall. As a result, reality television will now be included in this column.

Snake Oil: The first season of Snake Oil ended with a small dip on Wednesday, December 13th. The David Spade game show shed two-hundredths and posted a passable 0.24 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Snake Oil can be best be described as a marginal performer as it did just enough to get by but never appeared to be anything more than a modest retainer of The Masked Singer's audience. It was quite concerning when the series crashed to a 0.19 in late November, but it has otherwise been relatively stable in the 0.24-0.26 range for some time now. It's definitely not a breakout hit, but Snake Oil can still survive on Fox with these numbers.

LEGO Masters: LEGO Masters also aired its season finale this week but dropped to a new series low in the process. Masters finished its fall run with a meager 0.20 rating and was nearly 50% lower than the episode of Hell's Kitchen (0.39) that aired right before it. The fact that LEGO Masters has already been picked up for a fifth season proves that live ratings do not matter in the same way that they used to. Fox is clearly content with this lackluster performance given that the series had already scored a season five renewal before season four even aired. 

Hell's Kitchen: Hell's Kitchen posted a new season high on December 14th, growing to a 0.39 rating after being stuck at a 0.38 for two weeks. This ultimately made Hell's the highest-rated show of the night altogether, a rarity for Fox on nights without WWE Smackdown or an NFL boost. It's easy to forget that this is the same show that premiered with a paltry 0.29 in September. Now, it is practically on-par with a juggernaut like The Masked Singer. Most shows that debuted with a rounded 0.3 three months ago would probably be at a 0.2 or below by December, but Hell's only seems to have grown stronger and is almost about to break the 0.40 threshold. Fox could do without a good chunk of their reality library, but Hell's Kitchen is one program they desperately need.

The Masked Singer: Though it did rise to a 0.39 this week, The Masked Singer is clearly declining in strength. There is no longer any meaningful difference between Singer and Hell's in terms of ratings size, even though Hell's likely costs the network much less. One would think that this series would have to stabilize at some point, but it continues to fall lower and lower. 

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Wednesday TV Ratings 12/13/23: The Amazing Race Rises for Finale, Celebrity Family Feud Special Solid, Survivor Continues to Easily Lead (UPDATED w/Analysis)

Ratings Analysis: The Amazing Race (0.44, +0.08) soared to a new season high for its CBS finale but still looked rather meek in comparison to its Survivor lead-in (0.84, +0.03). On ABC, Celebrity Family Feud (0.45) was even with its September finale (0.45) and beat all non-Survivor competitors. Celebrity Wheel (0.36, +0.05) and Pyramid (0.27, +0.05) both grew by half of one-tenth. Fox game show Snake Oil (0.24, -0.02) dipped on finale night, even as The Masked Singer (0.39, +0.01) got back a hundredth at 8. Quantum Leap (0.25, -0.01) shed a hundredth on NBC, while Magnum P.I. (0.21, 0.00) tied last week's low. The dynamic was similar on the CW as Sullivan's Crossing (0.03, -0.01) lost a hundredth for its finale, while The Spencer Sisters (0.03, 0.00) held even for its closer

Finals Update: All shows held their preliminary rounded rating.

Fox Renew/Cancel Week 11: Krapopolis Should Thank The Football Gods

 

December 9th Predictions

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 11 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this fall. As a result, reality television will now be included in this column.

Krapopolis: For the third time this season, Krapopolis was given the honor of airing at 8 p.m. on a football-boosted night. The animated comedy surged to a 1.20 rating thanks to its massive lead-in and posted a new series high in the process. Fox can delude themselves as much as they want, but this series is not a hit in the Adults 18-49 demographic. No matter how many times they plug it behind The OT and get a 1.2 out of it, it will go back down to a 0.2 when it does not have such powerful assistance. Though it is common for Fox to place the series premiere of a new show after a big NFL game, it is not normal for one of their shows to get three (soon to be four) different chances to air in the slot normally reserved for The Simpsons. If the network wants to give Krapopolis this time slot, then they should properly commit to it, meaning it should have to tough it out as the 8 p.m. anchor whether there is NFL help or not. Fox obviously won't do that as they want Krap to reap the benefits of airing at 8 without the drawbacks. When the NFL lead-in does not reach the prime time players, they will always return Krap to 8:30 and use The Simpsons as its protective shield. Fox knows this series was a bad investment, so they are doing everything in their power to pump up its average and make it seem like a success. This strategy can only work in the fall when NFL is around. Expect catastrophic declines in February when the football well dries. 

The Simpsons: It seems like The Simpsons is not going to have much more direct NFL help this season. Krapopolis already took over the 8 p.m. time slot on two key NFL nights and will also be taking the December 17th boost away from Simpsons. Though a show that has been on the air for over thirty years should not need such help, losing three major boosts will do a number on its ratings average. The 0.59 it managed in the 8:30 slot on December 3rd is certainly better than its delivery on non-boosted nights but not high enough to prop up its average in a significant way. By the time spring arrives, the year-to-year trend will not look pretty for The Simpsons. 

Snake Oil: Though The Masked Singer (0.38) dropped to a new series low on December 6th, Snake Oil actually grew by 0.07 to a 0.26 rating. This is clearly the program's best performance in a while, especially since it was down to a 0.19 before this rise. Snake Oil remains a Likely Renewal. 

Poll of the Week

Wednesday TV Ratings 12/6/23: Republican Debate a Major Success for The CW Despite Ratings Drop, The Masked Singer and Celebrity Wheel of Fortune Hit New Lows, Survivor Easily Leads (UPDATED w/Analysis)

Ratings Analysis: The CW's broadcast of the latest Republican Primary Debate (0.30) was a monstrous success by the network's current standards. The CW struggles to clear the 0.1 threshold in the Adults 18-49 demographic on most nights, so a 0.3 is a major feat for them in 2023. Over on Fox, The Masked Singer (0.38, -0.03) fell to a new series low, but Snake Oil (0.26, +0.07) bounced back rather nicely. Celebrity Jeopardy! (0.37, +0.01) inched up, but Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.31, -0.05) and The $100,000 Pyramid (0.22, -0.05) collapsed on ABC. This serves as a new series low for the celebrity version of Wheel. Quantum Leap (0.26, -0.06) and Magnum P.I. (0.21, -0.02) also crumbled on NBC. CBS's Survivor (0.81, +0.01) gained a hundredth, but The Amazing Race (0.36, -0.06) lost six.

Finals Update: The Masked Singer (+0.1) and Celebrity Jeopardy! (+0.1) adjusted up.

Fox Renew/Cancel Week 10: The Masked Singer Hits A Flat Note

December 2nd Predictions

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 10 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this fall. As a result, reality television will now be included in this column.

Note: Final ratings for the episodes of Hell's Kitchen and LEGO Masters that aired on November 30th are yet to be released. These ratings will be added to the chart in the December 9th post.

The Masked Singer: The Masked Singer recently dipped to a 0.41 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic, putting it just two ticks above the series low (0.39) that it set in October 2022. It's easy to forget that this show was regularly clearing the 2.0 mark just four years ago, especially given how fast it has fallen. The Masked Singer is still near the top of Fox's roster and clearly a notch higher than most of the other reality fare on the network, but it would only take another 20-30% decline before it becomes indistinguishable from the rest of the middling performers on Fox. 

Snake Oil: Snake Oil plummeted to a new series low on November 29th. The David Spade game show managed just a 0.19 and retained less than half of the rating that The Masked Singer put up in the 8 p.m. time slot. Things are getting shaky for this series, but it has bounced back from egregious lows before. It remains a Likely Renewal in this chart for the time being. That may change, however, if the series continues to fall below the 0.20 mark.

Family Guy: A new series low has also arrived at Peter Griffin's doorstep. The Seth MacFarlane cartoon dropped to a 0.23 rating on November 26th and could only tie the episode of Bob's Burgers that led into it. With a move to Wednesday on the horizon and a two-month break coming soon, the future is looking quite bleak for Family Guy. The series may be Renewed through the 2024-2025 TV season, but Fox is doing all it can to downgrade its status on the network. If it's struggling to build on the relatively compatible Bob's Burgers, it's hard to imagine that Family Guy will grow from Animal Control on a new night in spring 2024. 

 

Special Forces: Special Forces: World's Toughest Test closed out its 8-episode season with an uptick. The series grew by 0.05 and posted a 0.24 rating for its closing installment. That may not be enough to get it a renewal, but it definitely makes it look stronger than this week's Snake Oil. With reality content like The Floor, Next Level Chef, and Farmer Wants a Wife coming through in the new year, it is unlikely that there will be room for Forces. The series remains Likely to be Canceled. 

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