FOX Renew/Cancel Week 13: Will Family Guy Survive The Move To Wednesday?

 

December 23rd Predictions 

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 13 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this fall. As a result, reality television will now be included in this column.

Family Guy: On December 17th, Family Guy aired what might have been its last original on a Sunday night. The long-running sitcom finished the fall season on a high note by growing to a 0.43 rating with the help of an indirect football boost. Though reruns of the Seth MacFarlane cartoon will still air on this evening in the coming weeks, Wednesday night will serve as its new home for the foreseeable future. Given that Family Guy is not returning until March 6th and will have a middling performer like Animal Control for a lead-in, the Fox animation staple is in for a tough time. Family Guy will be lucky to stay above its 0.23 series low in the spring, and it's hard to blame it when Fox abruptly decided to change what night it airs on. 

Krapopolis: Another week, another undeserved football boost. Krapopolis got its fourth chance to air in the 8 p.m. time slot on a night with direct NFL assistance, but it only managed a 0.82 rating this time around. This serves as the comedy's weakest 8 p.m. showing yet and will probably be the last time it gets this type of support during the 2023-24 television season. All the football juice pumped into it has helped the series soar all the way to a 0.61 average in the Adults 18-49 demographic, putting it in a virtual tie with The Simpsons. That number is sure to drop significantly when the spring episodes come into the picture, but Fox has genuinely done all it can to help this series out. Fans of the show have no reason to blame the network when Krapopolis inevitably sinks in the spring months. 

The Masked Singer: The Masked Singer ended the fall season with a surge. The reality program climbed to a 0.51 rating for its December finale and was only 0.03 away from the season high it set on premiere night. This is quite an encouraging sign as The Masked Singer has otherwise been below the 0.40 mark for the two episodes that came before this one. If it can somehow stay at this level during the spring, it will be able to provide Animal Control and Family Guy with a sizable boost. What's more likely to happen, however, is that The Masked Singer will hover around a 0.4 rating, and Animal Control will find itself in the 0.20-0.22 range. Family Guy will probably do its best to build from there, but it's unlikely that it will go higher than a 0.3 during this stint. The spring 2024 lineup will probably mirror the Hell's Kitchen/Welcome to Flatch/Call Me Kat lineup of fall 2022 as the 9:30 show (Family Guy in this case) will slightly grow from the 9 p.m. series (Animal Control), all while the 9 p.m. sitcom sheds too much of the 8 p.m. reality program's rating (The Masked Singer in this case).

Poll of the Week

Fox Renew/Cancel Week 10: The Masked Singer Hits A Flat Note

December 2nd Predictions

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 10 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this fall. As a result, reality television will now be included in this column.

Note: Final ratings for the episodes of Hell's Kitchen and LEGO Masters that aired on November 30th are yet to be released. These ratings will be added to the chart in the December 9th post.

The Masked Singer: The Masked Singer recently dipped to a 0.41 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic, putting it just two ticks above the series low (0.39) that it set in October 2022. It's easy to forget that this show was regularly clearing the 2.0 mark just four years ago, especially given how fast it has fallen. The Masked Singer is still near the top of Fox's roster and clearly a notch higher than most of the other reality fare on the network, but it would only take another 20-30% decline before it becomes indistinguishable from the rest of the middling performers on Fox. 

Snake Oil: Snake Oil plummeted to a new series low on November 29th. The David Spade game show managed just a 0.19 and retained less than half of the rating that The Masked Singer put up in the 8 p.m. time slot. Things are getting shaky for this series, but it has bounced back from egregious lows before. It remains a Likely Renewal in this chart for the time being. That may change, however, if the series continues to fall below the 0.20 mark.

Family Guy: A new series low has also arrived at Peter Griffin's doorstep. The Seth MacFarlane cartoon dropped to a 0.23 rating on November 26th and could only tie the episode of Bob's Burgers that led into it. With a move to Wednesday on the horizon and a two-month break coming soon, the future is looking quite bleak for Family Guy. The series may be Renewed through the 2024-2025 TV season, but Fox is doing all it can to downgrade its status on the network. If it's struggling to build on the relatively compatible Bob's Burgers, it's hard to imagine that Family Guy will grow from Animal Control on a new night in spring 2024. 

 

Special Forces: Special Forces: World's Toughest Test closed out its 8-episode season with an uptick. The series grew by 0.05 and posted a 0.24 rating for its closing installment. That may not be enough to get it a renewal, but it definitely makes it look stronger than this week's Snake Oil. With reality content like The Floor, Next Level Chef, and Farmer Wants a Wife coming through in the new year, it is unlikely that there will be room for Forces. The series remains Likely to be Canceled. 

Poll of the Week

2021-22 Season-To-Date Report (9/1-10/18) -- Seasonal Drops Have Pushed The Voice Out of the Top 10

Scripted programming entering the top 10 was a rarity the prior season, only occasionally punctuated by a NFL-inflated Sunday evening program entering the arena.  That season was shared by sports and reality TV programming in the top 10 reaches of the chart.  That however, has changed early in this season as most sturdy reality TV franchises hang out in the top 20, and on occasion claw their way into the top 10 like Masked Singer does when a Football Inflated Simpsons or 60 Minutes entry isn't pushing it down.  The Voice, Masked Singer and even Bachelor(ette) programming enjoyed top-10 for over 15 years.

2020-21 Season To Date Report (9/6-4/8): American Idol, The Voice and The Masked Singer Weaken With Each Episode

Scripted shows are already plunging down deep into the lower ranks, and now the onset erosions have come for even the sturdiest of 2021 reality TV shows.  Prior seasons had NFL, reality TV shows and an occasional scripted show like This is Us peppered into the top 10.  The Voice and The Masked Singer were always vexed at the front, and even American Idol managed to squeeze into the top 20.  Flash forward to spring 2021, and only the spring version of The Masked Singer remains in the top 20.  The Voice now rests in entirety in the 20's, and American Idol is losing its voice at 32nd and 45th places, respectively.

Several blame ABC and NBC for stacking them on top of each other competitively and are cannibalizing each other.  However, both are aged franchises.  While The Bachelor and Bachelorette are also aged, they have been periodically updated.  The ratings losses that came for scripted shows a few seasons back have now come for reality shows as perking above the 1.0 benchmark is a novelty and treat in 2021 often awarded only to sports.  Does this mean Reality TV is declining?  Not at all.  It may shine a light that it is time to update the brands, but Reality TV is still less costly and more lucrative for broadcast networks.

This is Us' tumble this season is devastating to the ratings community as it was the last of the mammoth hits produced by a network.  Once the #1 scripted show legions ahead of the competition, it now rests in 3rd place and sliding closer to the likes of CBS' FBI mainstay.  Watch the upcoming weeks as more renewals and cancellations are coming, most recently with CBS surprising viewers by axing MacGyver.

TVRG widened the data net for the ratings by moving the start point from September 20 to September 6, 2020, now leaving 183 shows in the charts with a few more entries coming.  This chart will lead to the site's first-ever in-house produced Ratings History article for the season, coming in late May.  In the past, articles from Variety, Deadline and several wonderful sister sites like TV By The Numbers and Spotted Ratings.  Check out Ratings History by clicking on the library icon at the top of the site.

2020-21 Season To Date Ratings Report (9/21-2/26) -- NBC Yanks Back Its Rightful 1st Place Crown From FOX (And Somehow Locates a Buzzworthy Sitcom!)

 The NFL halo ended after Superbowl, and the chips are down.  Aside from ABC and CW who are not in the rotation, the networks squeeze every inch out of scripted and new series abutting popular games.  FOX is known to utilize this the most to often boost its sagging Animation Domination block.  And this season, profiled two new sitcoms (Call Me Kat, The Great North) following lucrative games.  The jury is still out if these are solid players and sink deeper into the lineup, but a smart strategy for the network.  CBS made a couple wise moves as well, powering up an episode of FBI as well as handing the plum post-Superbowl slot to reboot The Equalizer.  Both again are dropping out of the higher reaches but solid players nonetheless.  And of course ever-sturdy veteran 60 Minutes enjoyed some time in the spotlight.

Beyond these windfalls, NBC is on track to being this year's 1st Place MVP.  It had its trophy stolen last year by FOX after an impressive 8-year uninterrupted run due to The Masked Singer being red-hot above the 2.0 range.  Still a strong player (and likely to finish the season in 5th Place), The Masked Singer is losing a little steam much like NBC's This Is Us.  NBC always sits pretty due to its Sunday NFL exposure sits within the proper primetime ratings guidelines of starting after 7:00.  Had this zone not be drafted, CBS would sit higher as they often hold the strongest game in the afternoon.  As-is, NBC holds stronger on most evenings, placing 1st or 2nd in their timeslots with the exception of Fridays and Thursday sitcoms.  They have earned their prize.

Elsewhere, this season's 142 entries demonstrate it is better to be sports or unscripted.  Only one unscripted drama (The Equalizer) rests in the Top 10 and is certain to leave.  A sturdy entry, it is now registering between 0.7-0.8, hardly Top-10 material.  This chart has compiled ratings for the entirety of the season save for one-time events (Superbowl, Award Shows) and leading to the finalized May entries.  Had the one-time events been omitted, CBS would rest in 4th Place.  But even with Superbowl and NFL powering up the ratings, it will likely go toe-to-toe with often 4th Place ABC.

Trending Hot

Sports are losing ratings by the season, but who DVR's a game!?  If a network wants to stay on the grid, they best throw their name in the NFL rotation.  Elsewhere, being a Reality TV Show on ABC and FOX is the place to be.  The Bachelor and Dancing With the Stars gave viewers heartburn over switching hosts, but people still enjoy tuning in for the catty antics changing the game weekly.  FOX' Masked Singer still dominates, and civic based professions (police, fire and medical) make for the strongest dramas with 9-1-1, Grey's Anatomy and NBC's Chicago Verse holding sturdy toward the top of the chart in the top 30.

Trending Tepid

Being a sitcom sucks without massive players like The Big Bang Theory, Modern Family and The Conners in 2021.  However, CBS has cornered the market with locating newer entries which will carry the network for the next 3-4 seasons.  Thursdays may be fading, but the action is moving back to the landmark Mondays with conventional The Neighborhood gaining ground and rom-com Bob Hearts Abishola captivating viewers.  ABC Gameshows made an ideal COVID-19-Friendly alternative to fill its vacated schedule (let's hope they don't saturate and ruin the game!).  Outsourced shows from around the globe gave viewers something to sink their teeth into while they awaited their usual players returning to production.

Trending Cold

What's a sitcom?  Sadly, this may become a question younger viewers ask in the near future as fewer shows can distinguish themselves.  Sinking fastest is ABC's Wednesday lineup.  Ratings on the CW?  They hold smaller priority as America's 5th network seeks alternative measures to the business model to determine keeping a show or throwing it into the fire.  Loftier sets on shows will need to wait due to COVID-19 sterilization standards.  This added cost is harming production and the likely factor why Superstore shuttered its box franchise this spring.