FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Predicting Grandfathered, Nothing Left on the Bubble

Canceled	Cancelation Predicted	Renewal Predicted	Renewed
Minority Report	Bordertown	Family Guy (RENEWED)	The Simpsons
Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life	Grandfathered	The X-Files	Bob’s Burgers
	The Grinder		Empire
	Second Chance		Scream Queens
	Sleepy Hollow		Bones
			Gotham
			Brooklyn 9-9
			The Last Man On Earth
			Lucifer
			Rosewood
			New Girl

Does FOX Really Need Grandfathered?
So far this season, FOX has renewed 11 shows: comedies The Simpsons, Bob's Burgers, Brooklyn 9-9, The Last Man On Earth, and New Girl; dramas Empire, Scream Queens, Gotham, Rosewood, Lucifer, and Bones. Additionally, a renewal for Family Guy is fully expected (may not even be announced) given the fact that they are already working on a new production cycle and have leftover episodes from this cycle.

If those are all the renewals FOX hands out, then they would have renewed their top 12 scripted shows in Live + Same Day ratings, while cancelling the 8 ones that were unlucky enough to fall that threshold. Last season, the 8 shows that fell below the Top 10 were canceled, while the rest were renewed. So even if they cancel the same number of shows this season as last season, they still end up renewing two more hours, essentially solving the problem of an Idol-less schedule.

This season, they lost American Idol, freeing up about two hours of time slots in the spring. However, it's worth noting that FOX renewed six drama hours instead of the usual four, and assuming Family Guy is renewed, they've renewed their typical three comedy hours. Do they really have room for Grandfathered?

It is widely known that the most money that a network or production company makes from a show is the distribution rights. FOX only holds half the ownership in Grandfathered, which the other half belonging to ABC Studios. The ratings are miserable, holding at around a 0.8 for its most recent airings despite having one of the best, if not the best, lead-ins FOX could have given it. In fact, it just recently went down to a 0.6 for its return. We can't say they didn't try with the time slot upgrade. Sure, the New Girl lead-in has made it more female-skewing, but it still loses a sizable portion of its lead-in's numbers. Given how far away this show is from a potential syndication deal of which FOX would only partially benefit, I see no reason to keep this one going. Unless, of course, there are numbers we are not seeing, such as C7 boosts or strong streaming numbers. I don't catch that vibe though. You can argue that half-owned Grandfathered can get renewed with ratings just below un-owned Brooklyn 9-9, but we must remember there that Brooklyn 9-9 is only one season away from a potential syndication deal, and given that it is supposedly a solid streaming player for Hulu, the more episodes the better.

If FOX wants to do more comedy business with ABC Studios, or if ABC Studios pressures them into having one of their comedies on the schedule next season, there is the Courtney Cox-led Charity Case, which on the description and the lead's name looks to be a better fit with New Girl than Grandfathered. I think that would be a solid option, and we must also remember that FOX has ordered comedy Son of Zorn to series. Renewing Grandfathered would just be putting another low-rated comedy on the schedule when the priority should be finding something that will last.

FOX picked up two new comedies for this season's fall schedule and a couple more for midseason, so I see no reason why they can't do that again.

FOX only has to schedule 12.5 hours of programming next season, and they've already renewed 8.5 hours. If you include Family Guy, MasterChef Junior, Son of Zorn, and Shots Fired, we are up to 11.5 hours of programming. That's only 1.5 hours left, and there may even be another hour of reality thrown on Fridays somewhere. Even if they save a couple veterans for midseason, I think a struggling FOX would like to premiere more than 1 new drama and 1 new comedy in order to find a new hit. They supposedly have strong pilots in dramas Pitch and Star, and comedies Making History and Charity Case. So could Grandfathered get saved? Yes. It wouldn't surprise me *that* much. But I think it should be in FOX's best interest to cancel the show and start fresh. Their schedule is getting full as it is.

FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: How Many Shows Can FOX Really Cancel?

Canceled	Certatin to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
Minority Report	Sleepy Hollow	The Grinder	Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life	Bordertown	Empire	The Simpsons
		Grandfathered	Scream Queens	The Last Man On Earth	Family Guy	Bob’s Burgers
		Bones		New Girl	Gotham
					Brooklyn 9-9
					Rosewood

The Simpsons and Bob's Burgers have both been renewed. Empire, Family Guy, Gotham, Brooklyn 9-9, and Rosewood are also all getting renewed, no questions asked. That's 7 shows that FOX either has or definitely will renew by May, and possibly some at Friday's upcoming TCA. In addition, The Last Man On Earth's decent ratings compared to the rest of the comedies prompted me to move it up to a likely renewal. I've also moved Bordertown from a likely cancellation to a likely renewal after this week's 1.5 A18-49 rating, which was a promising 83% retention out of Family Guy.

FOX

Meanwhile, look at the shows that I'm watching. Cooper Barrett premiered to a 1.2, and rose to a 2.1 for its second airing, but only because of football inflation. In addition, Scream Queens premiered to a mediocre 1.7, and fell to a very poor 0.8 A18-49 rating by the ninth airing. I do think that W18-34 may be its main demographic, but even then, it's pulling in poor ratings.

All four shows could easily be cancelled looking at these live ratings alone. However, if all four are cancelled and the rest of my predictions indeed turn out to be correct, then FOX would have renewed 8 shows and cancelled 9. Can they really do that?

Nope. Not with American Idol leaving the schedule too. And with the fact that I also trust that FOX is starting to look more into the C7 ratings as well as the C3, FOX may be the toughest of the Big 4 networks to predict. However, I do have a hunch that FOX will begin to tout itself as the "young-skewing network".

Is FOX The Young-Skewing Network?

Compared to shows on other networks, most of FOX's shows have unbelievably good (often close to 1:1) ratios amongst the hard-to-reach-live M/W18-34 and A18-49 demographics. In the case of Empire, the W18-34 numbers have actually been higher than the A18-49 numbers, and such can be said for most airings of shows like Family Guy and Bob's Burgers. In fact, here are all the FOX shows that perform well in the M/W18-34 demographics relative to their A18-49 numbers:

M18-34
Bob's Burgers
The Simpsons
Family Guy
Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life
Bordertown
The Last Man On Earth

W18-34
Scream Queens
New Girl
Grandfathered
Rosewood
Empire

Now, that's a LOT of shows that do relatively well in the M/W18-34 demographics! All of the above shows either tie, beat, or fall just a tenth under their A18-49 ratings in their M18-34 or W18-34 ratings, depending on the show.

Unfortunately, very few of those shows do better than low 1s in the ratings. However, they are definitely hitting a demographic that other networks are having trouble doing, and I am beginning to think that if FOX had to choose between two shows with identical A18-49 ratings, they would renew the show that does better in M/W18-34. This is one of the reasons why a show like Bones may lose out to a show like Grandfathered, if you told me that one had to be renewed and the other canceled. However, seeing how Grandfathered is unable to grow more with its newly-obtained New Girl lead-in, combined with the fact that 20th Century Fox does not distribute the show, really diminishes its prospects as well.

Notably missing from the list are: Gotham, Brooklyn 9-9, The Grinder, Bones, and Sleepy Hollow. Brooklyn 9-9 is still a certain renewal for syndication purposes, and Gotham because despite not having as high a young-skewing ratio week-in and week-out, it is still one of FOX's highest-rated shows.

At this point, it is mostly a matter of which of the young-skewing shows perform best all-around. This includes, but is not limited to, C3 ratings, C7 ratings, streaming data, and VOD ratings.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!

FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Rosewood Certain to be Renewed + Tuesday Update

NOTE: If you are viewing this on a mobile phone, you may need to switch the rotation to landscape in order to view the whole table. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Certatin to be Cancelled	Likely to be Cancelled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
The Grinder	The Last Man On Earth	Scream Queens	Bones	Empire	The Simpsons
Minority Report	Grandfathered			Family Guy	Bob’s Burgers
Sleepy Hollow				Gotham
				Brooklyn 9-9
				Rosewood

Changes from Last Time

-Rosewood upgraded from "Watching" to "Certain to be Renewed"
-Brooklyn 9-9 upgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Certain to be Renewed"
-Scream Queens downgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Watching"
-Grandfathered downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
-The Last Man On Earth downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
-The Grinder downgraded from "Likely to be Cancelled" to "Certain to be Cancelled"

Why is Rosewood "Certain to be Renewed"?

TV Media Insights

Even though Rosewood's numbers can be a bit deceiving because of the Empire pre-tune in the final half-hour, FOX is not really in a position to call it quits on a show that regardless delivers some of
their best ratings. I think this show next season will either be paired with or take over for Bones.

Why is Brooklyn 9-9 "Certain to be Renewed"?

Brooklyn 9-9 is in its third season, and just one away from syndication. Even though it's not an in-house production, the ratings are good enough for FOX to keep it around and try to revive the Tuesday comedy block around it.

Why is The Last Man On Earth "Likely to be Cancelled"?

Jason Sudeikis will voice an animated character on Son of Zorn

Even though its ratings aren't terrible, per say, I do think that The Last Man On Earth will be cancelled. One reason is that ratings aren't necessarily good, either, and is far away from syndication (four seasons won't get it there either considering they do shorter seasons). But the main reason is that executive producers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (I can't help but think that Will Forte's
character Phil Miller came from their names) have a new show, Son of Zorn, with a series commitment on FOX. The party live-action, partly animated show seems fit for Sundays, and stars Forte's fellow SNL alum, Jason Sudeikis, who coincidentally or not currently plays a recurring role on Last Man. I can't see Lord and Miller doing double-duty, and this feels like a new high-concept FOX project where they are starting over with a different SNL alum.

Tuesday Update: How are the New Shows Doing?

Scream Queens is performing a full four tenths below its estimated number needed to satisfy the ad rate. The Grinder is doing three tenths less, and Grandfathered two tenths less. I can't say those are particularly pleasing numbers--nor is the fact that all three have gone fractional on one or more occasions. The Grinder, no matter how you look at it, is Certain to be Cancelled in my book. FOX simply doesn't need to renew a show that is already posting 0.7s, its lowest-rated comedy, and won't get much better unless it surges behind Brooklyn 9-9 in the spring. The same can mostly be said about Grandfathered--unless it surges behind New Girl, it will probably be cancelled. But then again, will FOX want to renew more than just one of their Tuesday comedies? They could renew New Girl, but it smells like a final season to me. It may depend on their pilots, but I just don't think Grandfathered's ratings are cutting it right now and advertisers will want to buy spots on a show that is guaranteed fractional. But at least it's doing better than The Grinder.

Finally, on Scream Queens, the only reason why it is place in the Watch column right now is because it performs relatively well in W18-34. FOX was probably hoping to find a show that appealed to the New Girl/Mindy Project W18-34 audience in the Tuesday at 9 spot, and Scream Queens just hasn't
done enough of it. Then again, it's one of the only shows on broadcast television that can say it has the ability to rate higher amongst W18-34 than A18-49, and that's a hard demographic to reach.

What do you think of my analysis? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments below!

Promos Aired During The 2015 Emmy Awards

Tonight, the 67th Primetime Emmy Awards aired on FOX. While plenty happened within the show itself to promote FOX's new and returning series and actors/actresses, it's also worth looking into what series the network decided to promote during the many commercial breaks. Below is a record of the time (PM EST) each promo aired during the night. I do not have the specific duration of each promo, however.

8:21 - Scream Queens
8:21 - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
8:32 - Gotham
8:34 - Scream Queens
8:49 - Grandfathered
8:50 - Minority Report
9:02 - Rosewood
9:21 - Empire
9:23 - Minority Report
9:32 - The Grinder
9:32 - Empire
9:45 - The Grinder
9:48 - American Horror Story: Hotel
10:00 - Fargo
10:00 - Grandfathered
10:13 - Gotham
10:16 - The Last Man on Earth
10:28 - Scream Queens
10:36 - Minority Report
10:36 - Empire
10:50 - Scream Queens

The summarized facts of FOX's promotional decisions:

• A total of 11 different FOX/FX series were promoted during the event.
• Of these, 9 are to air on FOX and 2 on FX.
• 6 new series and 5 returning series were promoted.
• FOX's returning Fall series that were not promoted during the night include: Bob's Burgers, The Simpsons, Family Guy, Bones, and Sleepy Hollow.
• Scream Queens received the most promotion with 4 (including the first and final promos); Empire and Minority Report scored 3 spots each; The Grinder, Grandfathered, and Gotham received 2; and the rest aired only 1 each.

What do you think of FOX's promotional strategy for the Emmys? Should they have promoted certain series more or less than they did?