FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: A Look Ahead to Rosewood and The Last Man On Earth

Canceled	Certatin to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed on Some Platform	Renewed
Minority Report	Bordertown	Grandfathered	The Last Man On Earth	Family Guy	Brooklyn 9-9	The Simpsons
	Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life		Lucifer	Gotham		Bob’s Burgers
	The Grinder		Rosewood	New Girl		Empire
	Second Chance		The X-Files			Scream Queens
	Sleepy Hollow					Bones

A Look Ahead At The Last Man On Earth

The Last Man On Earth returns Sunday, March 6 at 9:30/8:30c, pushing Bordertown all the way to 7pm. Bordertown, enjoy your one airing without Daylight Savings Time. If Bordertown were a ratings success, this would not be happening; it would keep its time slot and The Last Man On Earth would have to find another place to air. But since it pretty much flopped, FOX is hoping that Last Man can come fix one of their problems. The show fluctuated between a 1.0 and a 1.5 in the fall,

YouTube

averaging a 1.28 A18-49 rating and around that vicinity in M18-34. Per Vulture, it also gets a sizable streaming and VOD push, both of which force you to watch commercials. If it returns above a 1.0 and stays there for the rest of the season, it's most likely getting a renewal. Lord Miller Productions is certainly gaining traction on FOX, which has picked up Son of Zorn for next season, and it's said their time-traveling comedy is also a frontrunner. Will FOX have room for all 3? Depends, but if The Last Man On Earth can manage to not go fractional, it's already a step above half of their comedies right now.So keep a close watch on those ratings everyone--we'll know more soon.

A Look Ahead At Rosewood

Rosewood was looking good in the fall, consistently a mid 1s performer, even though it's a little misleading with Empire inflating the second half-hour. Since it left the air on December 2, Scream Queens and Bones both got renewed, and Lucifer entered the scene as a promising new drama (and one that is arguably stronger than Rosewood). All of a sudden Rosewood doesn't look as safe as it used to. FOX seems bound to break that 4-dramas-only-renewed trend, probably to fill up space in a world without American Idol. Do they have space for Rosewood next season? We will have to wait and see, but as of now I think it may depend on pilot season and where Lucifer settles. Not getting any part of the Thursday Night Football package is certainly a blow to FOX, which may or may not be airing a combination of Bones and Rosewood on what's known as the most important night for advertisers.

We will know more about Rosewood very soon, as it comes back tomorrow (Wednesday, March 2) and will be spending the next four weeks without any Empire pre-tune. If it's not in a safe 3rd place the whole time (i.e. if Arrow or The Mysteries of Laura have a chance of tying or even beating it), it may be one-and-done for Rosewood and hello-season-two for Lucifer. It's time to find Rosewood's true strength, and even though Bones and Scream Queens were renewed with woefully low ratings, I'm not so sure FOX would be willing to do that to a 3rd drama. They have to have some standard.

FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Rosewood Certain to be Renewed + Tuesday Update

NOTE: If you are viewing this on a mobile phone, you may need to switch the rotation to landscape in order to view the whole table. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Certatin to be Cancelled	Likely to be Cancelled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
The Grinder	The Last Man On Earth	Scream Queens	Bones	Empire	The Simpsons
Minority Report	Grandfathered			Family Guy	Bob’s Burgers
Sleepy Hollow				Gotham
				Brooklyn 9-9
				Rosewood

Changes from Last Time

-Rosewood upgraded from "Watching" to "Certain to be Renewed"
-Brooklyn 9-9 upgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Certain to be Renewed"
-Scream Queens downgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Watching"
-Grandfathered downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
-The Last Man On Earth downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Cancelled"
-The Grinder downgraded from "Likely to be Cancelled" to "Certain to be Cancelled"

Why is Rosewood "Certain to be Renewed"?

TV Media Insights

Even though Rosewood's numbers can be a bit deceiving because of the Empire pre-tune in the final half-hour, FOX is not really in a position to call it quits on a show that regardless delivers some of
their best ratings. I think this show next season will either be paired with or take over for Bones.

Why is Brooklyn 9-9 "Certain to be Renewed"?

Brooklyn 9-9 is in its third season, and just one away from syndication. Even though it's not an in-house production, the ratings are good enough for FOX to keep it around and try to revive the Tuesday comedy block around it.

Why is The Last Man On Earth "Likely to be Cancelled"?

Jason Sudeikis will voice an animated character on Son of Zorn

Even though its ratings aren't terrible, per say, I do think that The Last Man On Earth will be cancelled. One reason is that ratings aren't necessarily good, either, and is far away from syndication (four seasons won't get it there either considering they do shorter seasons). But the main reason is that executive producers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (I can't help but think that Will Forte's
character Phil Miller came from their names) have a new show, Son of Zorn, with a series commitment on FOX. The party live-action, partly animated show seems fit for Sundays, and stars Forte's fellow SNL alum, Jason Sudeikis, who coincidentally or not currently plays a recurring role on Last Man. I can't see Lord and Miller doing double-duty, and this feels like a new high-concept FOX project where they are starting over with a different SNL alum.

Tuesday Update: How are the New Shows Doing?

Scream Queens is performing a full four tenths below its estimated number needed to satisfy the ad rate. The Grinder is doing three tenths less, and Grandfathered two tenths less. I can't say those are particularly pleasing numbers--nor is the fact that all three have gone fractional on one or more occasions. The Grinder, no matter how you look at it, is Certain to be Cancelled in my book. FOX simply doesn't need to renew a show that is already posting 0.7s, its lowest-rated comedy, and won't get much better unless it surges behind Brooklyn 9-9 in the spring. The same can mostly be said about Grandfathered--unless it surges behind New Girl, it will probably be cancelled. But then again, will FOX want to renew more than just one of their Tuesday comedies? They could renew New Girl, but it smells like a final season to me. It may depend on their pilots, but I just don't think Grandfathered's ratings are cutting it right now and advertisers will want to buy spots on a show that is guaranteed fractional. But at least it's doing better than The Grinder.

Finally, on Scream Queens, the only reason why it is place in the Watch column right now is because it performs relatively well in W18-34. FOX was probably hoping to find a show that appealed to the New Girl/Mindy Project W18-34 audience in the Tuesday at 9 spot, and Scream Queens just hasn't
done enough of it. Then again, it's one of the only shows on broadcast television that can say it has the ability to rate higher amongst W18-34 than A18-49, and that's a hard demographic to reach.

What do you think of my analysis? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments below!

Promos Aired During The 2015 Emmy Awards

Tonight, the 67th Primetime Emmy Awards aired on FOX. While plenty happened within the show itself to promote FOX's new and returning series and actors/actresses, it's also worth looking into what series the network decided to promote during the many commercial breaks. Below is a record of the time (PM EST) each promo aired during the night. I do not have the specific duration of each promo, however.

8:21 - Scream Queens
8:21 - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
8:32 - Gotham
8:34 - Scream Queens
8:49 - Grandfathered
8:50 - Minority Report
9:02 - Rosewood
9:21 - Empire
9:23 - Minority Report
9:32 - The Grinder
9:32 - Empire
9:45 - The Grinder
9:48 - American Horror Story: Hotel
10:00 - Fargo
10:00 - Grandfathered
10:13 - Gotham
10:16 - The Last Man on Earth
10:28 - Scream Queens
10:36 - Minority Report
10:36 - Empire
10:50 - Scream Queens

The summarized facts of FOX's promotional decisions:

• A total of 11 different FOX/FX series were promoted during the event.
• Of these, 9 are to air on FOX and 2 on FX.
• 6 new series and 5 returning series were promoted.
• FOX's returning Fall series that were not promoted during the night include: Bob's Burgers, The Simpsons, Family Guy, Bones, and Sleepy Hollow.
• Scream Queens received the most promotion with 4 (including the first and final promos); Empire and Minority Report scored 3 spots each; The Grinder, Grandfathered, and Gotham received 2; and the rest aired only 1 each.

What do you think of FOX's promotional strategy for the Emmys? Should they have promoted certain series more or less than they did?

Questions of the Week: Pre-Season Week 1

These are five discussion questions designed for you, the reader, to answer. Feel free to answer as many or few as you like, or just read through the responses. The questions will be simultaneously run on the Thursday Final Ratings post of TV by the Numbers, as well as the SpoilerTV Community Open Discussion Thread. As answers come in from here and the aforementioned places, I will update this post to insert your majority opinion in the most interactive Questions of the Week yet.

1) Which of ABC's two new Sunday shows will be lower-rated?
2) Will Scorpion see a fall spike again?
3) Was it a good or bad idea for The CW to keep iZombie behind The Flash?
4) Will Rosewood benefit from its Empire lead-out, or will its poor reviews be an indication of its ratings?
5) How many seasons left does Grimm have?
________________________________________

1)
My Answer: I think that Quantico will be lower-rated based solely on its time slot. Although I hear much better reviews and more hype for Quantico, the truth is that one gets a Once Upon a Time lead-in, while the other does it. I foresee Blood & Oil to be a 1.2-1.5 player, leaving Quantico with its work cut out for it.

Your Answer: Blood & Oil by a fair margin

2)
My Answer: Scorpion will more than likely see a little bit of a fall spike, but not as much as last season. With The Big Bang Theory being a weaker show (albeit still huge) and having a lead-in of Life in Pieces instead of a massively-rated Big Bang rerun, I think Scorpion may see some 2.3-2.4s, but not much higher than that.

Your Answer: You were pretty mixed on this question. Some said no, others said yes. What fascinated me the most was that most of those who answered yes think that it will only see a small spike compared to the strong start it had last fall.

3)
My Answer: I think that keeping iZombie behind The Flash was basically the most sensical idea considering that the only new show on The CW's schedule seems completely incompatible. However, I think that it would be a bad idea to keep it there through midseason, as its poor retention and high hold-up after a Flash rerun indicates that the Tuesday at 9pm slot is better suited for another show. It's just a matter of waiting for that show to arrive.

Your Answer: Another question with mixed responses. I couldn't really take a general consensus out of this one. What I did notice is a few people using iZombie as an analogy to The 100 last season, in that it will have The CW's highest lead-in and not use it, despite being a steadily mediocrely-rated show. I really think it's interesting how some think it is a terrible idea, and others a good idea.

4)
My Answer: FOX was pretty reserved last season from pulling shows from the schedule (see: Red Band Society), but I think Rosewood will be 13-and-done at best. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Empire S2B air at 8pm, leading out to a new show.

Your Answer: I noticed that some of you think that Rosewood will be DOA, while there is also a couple who think it has a chance to be renewed. Regardless, most of you expect it to at least do well for the first few episodes. I honestly think it will manage to go sub-1 before its (apparently 10, not 13) episode order is complete, though some others think having Empire air after it will stop that.

5)
My Answer: NBC is truly struggling in the scripted department right now, having no bona fide hits. The problem is that Grimm is no longer helping NBC provide strong Friday ratings, and they could probably do just as good or better with a cheap reality show (The Biggest Loser, maybe?) and/or Dateline. With no show doing well after it, I think Grimm may be ending in two seasons. I would say one, but I think that may only happen if for some reason NBC gets a show like The Player or Shades of Blue to work.

Your Answer: Hey, we found a question where we really agree on an answer! Most answers I came across have Grimm at either one or two more seasons.

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Thanks for a wonderful Questions of the Week, I had a lot of fun and hopefully you did too! Thanks to all 17 users who have answered.