Predictions for 05/03/25
Below are the May 3rd renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2024-25 television season. The numbers listed in the table are the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column compares a show's current average to its average from the previous season.
Rescue: HI-Surf: Rescue: HI-Surf is a fan favorite among readers of this column, but its renewal chances are slim. It was quite damning when Fox yanked HI-Surf out of the post-Super Bowl time slot in favor of The Floor, effectively telling viewers that they aren't interested in building the series an audience. On top of that, filming in Hawaii is not cheap. That wouldn't be as big of an issue if HI-Surf turned in strong Nielsen ratings, but the program's numbers are nothing to write home about. If this show were filmed in Vancouver, it'd probably be a likely renewal in Fox's current state, but it's simply not worth the cost. Renewal Odds: 30%
Animal Control: Admittedly, this has been a tough show to predict. Last year, Fox renewed Animal Control before its season even began. This year, the network has not released an official decision, even though it has been over a month since its finale. What Animal Control has working in its favor is that its ratings barely declined on a year-to-year basis. The series went from a 0.19 average to a 0.17 despite a pretty sizable time slot downgrade. In fact, the 0.25 rating it posted for the February 13th episode is actually higher than anything from its second season. Another thing working in its favor is that production is relatively cheap, as the series is filmed in Vancouver. Though it is not guaranteed to return for season four, there is more working for it than against. Renewal Odds: 70%
Going Dutch: From a Nielsen ratings standpoint, Going Dutch did about the best that it could with the lead-in that it got. It was certainly no hit, but it generally held onto much of Animal Control's rating, even beating it on one occasion. But the series was down to a mere 0.11 by finale night, so viewers didn't exactly stick around. However, it was recently revealed that Fox intends to air reruns of Going Dutch during the summer. This shows that the network is interested in continuing their relationship with Dutch. Hence, it has been upgraded to a Likely Renewal. Renewal Odds: 65%
Grimsburg: Normally, airing in the summer would be a death knell for a series, but the circumstances are quite different for Grimsburg. The series did not get to air a proper season this year, first airing a handful of episodes on Sunday and then being thrown into the Wednesday mix for a single showing. Because of this, the summer run likely won't hurt the show's chances. Its Adults 18-49 ratings were not nearly as embarrassing as they were in 2024, so Fox is likely happy with its performance. Renewal Odds: 75%
Accused: Do viewers still remember Accused? The series wrapped up its sophomore season all the way back in December 2024, with numbers that had no one accusing it of being a hit. Fox made their intentions clear when they moved it up to nine after originally scheduling it for an 8 p.m. slot. They also went from ordering fifteen installments in season one to a mere eight episodes this time, showing that they are not confident in its abilities. Though the anthology format is enticing from a cost perspective, it is very unlikely that Accused will be back for a third season. Renewal Odds: 25%
The Great North: In the last month, Fox has gone out of its way to show how little they care about The Great North. First, the series was left out of the mass animation renewal. Then, it was suddenly demoted to the 9:30 p.m. slot, losing its 9 p.m. perch to Krapopolis in a bizarre late-season reshuffling. Then, they decided to air an original episode of the series behind a rerun of Krap. And if that weren't enough, they are now choosing to burn off the remainder of its fifth production cycle during the summer. The second-half of season five could have easily been saved for a winter 2026 slot if they wanted to keep the series around. Instead, Fox is all but telling us that they are done with the Tobins. Renewal Odds: 15%
Alert: Missing Persons Unit: This one initially showed some spunk by growing from Cleaning Lady in the key demo, but it has started to fall behind it in recent weeks. Still, it is cheap and appears to do better on streaming than Cleaning. The recent jump to a 0.13 rating puts it only two ticks below the Rescue: HI-Surf finale despite costing much less to produce. The introduction of America's Most Wanted: Missing Persons also signals that Fox may be committed to this brand. Alert is not a lock by any means, but a renewal seems to be in the cards. Renewal Odds: 55%
The Cleaning Lady: The Cleaning Lady's streaming numbers are noticeably worse than Alert: Missing Persons Unit, and its Nielsen ratings average is about the same as its Tuesday night companion. If Fox is going to keep one of these dramas around, it will probably be the one that performs better on Hulu. A renewal would not be a surprise, but it is likely that this series will come to an end. Renewal Odds: 40%
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | America's Most Wanted: Missing Persons | America's Most Wanted | ||
| Tues | The Cleaning Lady | Alert: Missing Persons Unit | ||
| Wed | The Masked Singer | |||
| Thurs | Next Level Chef | Farmer Wants a Wife | ||
| Fri | UFL on Fox | |||
| Sun | The Simpsons | Family Guy | Krapopolis | The Great North |
