The fall season, one unlike any other before, is nearly upon us, and it's time to wrap up the Summer Renew/Cancel with some final thoughts on all of the summer's bubble shows. Keep reading for my last thoughts on Claim to Fame, Don't Forget the Lyrics, Crime Scene Kitchen and more!
Certain to be Canceled:
HouseBroken (0.12, 0.06-0.18)
Superfan (0.18, 0.14-0.22)
The Wonder Years (0.21, 0.17-0.25)
Likely to be Canceled:
Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge (0.26, 0.21-0.33)
The Prank Panel (0.30, 0.24-0.31)
Stars on Mars (0.18, 0.14-0.24)
Tough As Nails (0.19, 0.14-0.23)
Leans Cancellation:
Beat Shazam (0.21, 0.17-0.26)
Crime Scene Kitchen (0.20, 0.18-0.24)
Leans Renewal:
The Challenge: USA (0.30, 0.28-0.32)
Claim To Fame (0.30, 0.23-0.41)
Don't Forget The Lyrics! (0.23, 0.15-0.25)
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars (0.26, 0.19-0.29)
LA Fire & Rescue (0.25, 0.21-0.29)
Secret Celebrity Renovation (0.18, 0.15-0.22)
Likely to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (0.30, 0.27-0.31)
The Chase (0.34, 0.30-0.37)
Weakest Link (0.26, 0.20-0.32)
Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (0.37, 0.29-0.44)
America's Got Talent (0.59, 0.55-0.68)
The Bachelorette (0.42, 0.27-0.56)
Big Brother (0.60, 0.46-0.72)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.37, 0.30-0.43)
Generation Gap (0.37, 0.28-0.44)
Gotham Knights (Canceled)
MasterChef (Renewed)
Superman & Lois (Renewed)
Judge Steve Harvey (Renewed)
Nancy Drew (Final Season)
Riverdale (Final Season)
The Wall (Renewed)
Beat Shazam: A veteran member of the Fox summer lineup, this show took a big hit this year as it moved to Tuesdays at 8. While it grew from Don't Forget the Lyrics when airing behind it last year, it has consistently been out-rated by DFTL this season, and often rates fourth in its time slot despite ABC and CBS only airing repeats. Losing longtime host Jamie Foxx amid his personal health setbacks surely did not help this show, but Nick Cannon is a face that's familiar to Fox viewers as the host of their top reality show, The Masked Singer, and that change alone can't excuse the nearly 40% decline. Most Fox shows this summer, aside from MasterChef, rated at or below 0.2, so it's certainly not dead, but I wouldn't bet on a return at this point. It LEANS CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 45%
The Challenge: USA: While the summer season is just about over, The Challenge: USA still has plenty of episodes left to air, with CBS keeping it on in early fall amid the strikes. Thus far, the show has done OK, with a 0.30 average that has kept it afloat in comparison to the pitiful performance of CBS's other post-Big Brother show, Superfan. As I explained last week, despite CBS not seeming to view this shows much of a priority, it is still more likely than not to be back, as it at least gives them something to air in the summer that gets decent numbers. Its post-Buddy Games episodes may tank its chances, but as of not, it LEANS RENEWAL. Chance of renewal: 60%
Claim To Fame: Another show that just does OK but fills its role as summer filler pretty well, Claim to Fame has shown that it's able to do pretty well when it airs at 8, even though its post-Bachelorette showings displayed obvious weakness. ABC doesn't necessarily need the show, especially since they have plenty of game shows and reality shows they could air, which is why I think there's a chance they could dump it, especially considering how quick they were to shove it to a worse slot in favor of The Bachelorette. It could basically go either way, but the potential it showed at 8 leads me to believe that it LEANS RENEWAL. Chance of renewal: 55%
Crime Scene Kitchen: Fox premiered this show two years ago to middling but acceptable ratings, and then left it off the air until this year and gave it Stars on Mars as its lead-in. That's not really a promising sign for its future, but it did hold up about as well as you could expect it to given that treatment, and its growth from Stars on Mars is a positive sign for its future. Fox could surely have gotten better ratings on Mondays if they'd simply swapped time slots for Crime Scene Kitchen, and it's strange that they never cared enough to try to shake up the lineup. While its ratings should warrant another season, considering how weak everything on Fox is, I'm starting to think they may be done with it. It now LEANS CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 49%
Don't Forget The Lyrics!: Fox's sophomore music game show wrapped up this week on an upswing, with a 0.26 that tied its season high. That's nothing to brag about, but it's still better than most of what Fox was offering up this summer. The show also consistently rises from Beat Shazam, besting it for roughly three quarters of the episodes they aired together. While Fox's decisions on what summer shows they will pick up for next season are likely to be arbitrary, with all of the shows rating similarly and none standing out as being high-budget, Don't Forget the Lyrics feels like the strongest of their summer shows besides NasterChef, and that should be enough for another season. It LEANS RENEWAL. Chance of renewal: 60%
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars: Food Stars is no MasterChef, that's for sure. This Ramsay show consistently had mediocre retention of its ultra-compatible lead-in and went as low as 0.19, barely distinguishing itself from the rest of the Fox summer lineup. Still, Fox loves Ramsay, and it did still rate as Fox's #2 summer program, which is why I believe it still LEANS RENEWAL. Chance of renewal: 55%
Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge: Repeats of That's My Jam performed better than this show in its plum post-AGT slot, and repeats of Quantum Leap didn't really do much worse. That's really all I need to say about this show, a LIKELY CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 20%
HouseBroken: Fox basically burned this show off, with double-pumped episodes behind repeats that saw the show dip below the 0.10 mark. It was then taken off the air with a handful of episodes left to air, with no clear plan in place to air those. With how long animated shows take to be produced, it seems highly unlikely that this show is still in contention for renewal, even if Fox is doubling down on their animation gambit. It's a CERTAIN CANCELLATION Chance of renewal: 5%
LA Fire & Rescue: Dick Wolf produced this reality show, which sort of faded into the background of the summer landscape from the very start of the season. It performed better than repeats of the Chicagos likely would have in that slot, and it certainly can't cost much to produce, considering the simple concept that is reminiscent of shows like On Patrol: Live and Cops, both of which are aired by far-smaller networks (Reelz and Fox Nation, respectively). The Wolf connection is probably the most instrumental for a renewal here, but it did well enough in general for NBC to likely give it another shot, especially in this TV environment. It LEANS RENEWAL. Chance of renewal: 60%
The Prank Panel: This show underperformed on Sundays and weighed down two reliable veterans, leading ABC to act fast and shift it to Thursdays. While it held up well in that move, it still lost a notable portion of its Generation Gap lead-in and went as low as 0.24 over its run. I'm not as confident in a cancellation here as I was when it was first moved from Sundays, but I can't help but compare its acceptable-but-unimpressive ratings to similar ABC summer shows like Don't and The Final Straw - both of which were over-and-out in a single season. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 30%
Secret Celebrity Renovation: This feels like a show that CBS could cancel at any time, without any warning, as its ratings are entirely unimpressive and it's always late summer filler. It is probably very cheap, and helps them keep something on in the summer, which is why I would bet on another renewal, but it's hard to get any idea of what they really intend to do here, as it's a clear afterthought for them. It LEANS RENEWAL. Chance of renewal: 55%
Stars on Mars: It was Fox's lowest-rated reality show this summer, and it just got uglier and uglier as the season went along, eventually going as low as 0.14 and averaging 0.18 despite airing at 8 PM. Fox is desperate fro reality shows - they showed this with some of the in-season flops they renewed this season - but it's hard to imagine they could be desperate enough to give this one another season. Special Forces and Farmer Wants a Wife were both iffy pickups, but nowhere near this bad. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 20%
Superfan: No show ever retains Big Brother all that well - the show is simply on an island of its own on CBS. However, few shows retain it quite this poorly. As TV's #1 summer show averaged 0.66 on Wednesdays this season, Superfan managed just a 0.18 average. That's an embarrassment, and it's truly bewildering that this was even allowed to air out its full season. CBS can just air repeats in this slot and do better, but even whatever likely-flop reality they put together for next season should easily improve on this disaster. It's a CERTAIN CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 0%
Tough As Nails: With scheduling that screamed burnout and ratings that seemed to justify the treatment, this show fell out of favor with CBS quickly amid a change in leadership. This season was filmed over a year ago, and having no word on another season since then is never a good sign. There aren't any signs here pointing towards a renewal, though the writers strike could conceivably convince CBS to give it another season to fill space. Still, it feels like, if they intended on doing that, they would have just saved this season to air somewhere they needed it, rather than the bizarre twice-weekly airings on Fridays and Sundays. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 15%
The Wonder Years: This show was a questionable renewal last season, and even ABC seemingly agreed, as they dumped it in summer amid a writers strike. At the time of its scheduling, ABC was planning on airing an hour of Abbott Elementary repeats on Wednesday nights rather than holding this show for a fall slot. That alone should tell you how ABC feels about this show. This was a burnoff, much like United We Fall a few seasons ago, and ABC never intended to give it another season regardless of how it performed (which... was not well). It's a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.Chance of renewal: 1%
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
