Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 9: Big Ratings, Bigger Renewal Odds for Big Brother

It's been another interesting week for Summer reality shows, with two swing shows being renewed this week. See how those renewals change the odds of one show, and more, in this week's Summer Reality Renew/Cancel!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type)
Certain to be Canceled:

Love Connection (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.6, 0.3-0.9)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.6, 0.5-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
Castaways (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4, 0.3-0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Pink Collar Crimes (0.3, 0.2-0.3)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.5-0.8)

Leans Renewal:
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.6, 0.5-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Bachelor In Paradise (1.2, 1.0-1.3)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.5, 0.9-1.7)
The Four (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3, 0.3-0.4)
What Would You Do? (0.5, 0.4-0.8)

Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Fate Determined:
The $100,000 Pyramid (RENEWED)
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
America's Got Talent (RENEWED)
Beat Shazam (RENEWED)
Celebrity Family Feud (RENEWED)
Making It (RENEWED)
Match Game (RENEWED)
To Tell the Truth (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Love Connection: Its Tuesday partner Beat Shazam was renewed this week by Fox, but there was no word about Love Connection. That's not really a surprise though, since it's been a big flop all Summer, with 0.4 becoming the norm in its most recent outings. I held out on downgrading it before, but I don't think it can get much more apparent that Fox is done with it. It's been downgraded to a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.

Big Brother: I haven't talked at all about Big Brother this Summer, because it's been a CERTAIN RENEWAL all season. However, it's worth noting how much the season has improved as time has gone on, with some very solid trends for its most recent episodes and a nice string of 1.7s and 1.6s. This affirms its certain renewal status, and its place as one of the strongest shows of the summer. It's definitely coming back, and probably for a very, very long time.

The Proposal: This is truly the swing show of the summer. I couldn't be less certain of what will happen to it, even though it is a huge flop. Airing behind two of the most compatible lead-ins imaginable for it, it's currently averaged a 0.65, with 0.5s for the past two weeks. I upgraded it a few weeks ago, but now I'm reconsidering. The 0.5 was bad enough, but it received zero promos during Monday night's Bachelor in Paradise, a sign that ABC may be giving up on the show. ABC might still renew it, but at this point, I'm not betting on it. It now LEANS CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below, and don't forget to vote in the Poll of the Week!

Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 8: Making It Will Probably Make It

It's a new week, which means a new edition of the Summer Reality Renew/Cancel! We've got updates for a few Summer programs, plus initial predictions for a pair of recent ABC premieres. Keep reading for analysis and new predictions!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:

Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.6, 0.3-0.9)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.7, 0.5-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
Castaways (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Love Connection (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4, 0.3-0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Pink Collar Crimes (0.3)

Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Making It (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.5-0.8)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.6, 0.6-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
America's Got Talent (2.1, 2.0-2.5)
Bachelor In Paradise (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.5, 0.9-1.7)
The Four (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3, 0.3-0.4)
What Would You Do? (0.5, 0.4-0.8)

Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Fate Determined:
The $100,000 Pyramid (RENEWED)
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
Celebrity Family Feud (RENEWED)
Match Game (RENEWED)
To Tell the Truth (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Making It: NBC's newest reality show isn't lighting the world on fire, but it's done OK-ish for its first few outings. It's not a great AGT retainer,  but it's on par with veteran Hollywood Game Night, which occupied the slot last season after World of Dance vacated it. HGN was renewed last season and never seemed to be in much danger. For that reason, Making It looks good for a renewal, at least at this point. The folks at NBC also seem to be big supporters of Making It host/EP Amy Poehler, so she can only help this show make it to season two. It still LEANS RENEWAL, but I'm more confident in saying that this week.

Little Big Shots: Due to a poor season of performances, I downgraded Little Big Shots a few weeks ago. It seemed pretty justified then, as the show disappointed in both its Sunday spring and its Thursday summer runs. However, NBC seems to be more devoted to the show than I originally thought, and they've been airing repeats on Saturdays and Sundays for the past few weeks, even though the show has already ended. This leads me to believe that they'll be bringing it back for at least one more run, and I'm upgrading it to LEANS RENEWAL.

Castaways: The summer's final new premiere, Castaways actually didn't start too terribly. With a 0.7 for its premiere, this was better than anything The Last Defense did in the slot and on par with the performances of The Proposal. And then it fell to 0.5 in week two, and any chances the show had at renewal seems to have been cast far, far away. ABC has had bigger flops than Castaways, some even airing this season, but that doesn't mean they'll give this flop a second chance. It starts as a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

Bachelor In Paradise: The offshoot of ABC's highly-successful Bachelor(ette) franchise returned last week to solid ratings, and it remained a solid ratings performer in week two. With a 1.1 average, it's higher than anything else ABC has on the schedule right now, and though it's not as successful as The Bachelorette, it's still a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below and don't forget to vote in the Poll of the Week!

Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 7: Totally Knocked Out

The Summer Reality Renew/Cancel is back after a week off, and a lot has happened since our last update. Stay tuned for the intial status of two shows, plus updates on a few of the Summer's other programs!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:

Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.6, 0.3-0.9)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.8, 0.6-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Love Connection (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Pink Collar Crimes (0.3)

Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
Making It (1.1)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.7, 0.6-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
20/20: In An Instant (0.4)
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
America's Got Talent (2.2, 2.0-2.5)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.4, 0.9-1.6)
The Four (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3)
What Would You Do? (0.6, 0.5-0.8)

Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Fate Determined:
The $100,000 Pyramid (RENEWED)
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
Celebrity Family Feud (RENEWED)
Match Game (RENEWED)
To Tell the Truth (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Yet to Premiere:
Bachelor In Paradise (August 2018)
Castaways (August 2018)

TKO: Total Knock Out: Man, this show's fortunes changed fast. While it had a decent start and second-week hold, it fell to a 0.6 in its third week. This alone prompted me to downgrade it. And then, CBS turned on the show, yanking it from the Wednesday lineup in favor of SEAL Team repeats and pushing it to Fridays with Whistleblower. It did decent-ish there, but they're clearly over this show already, and its odds of renewal are nonexistent. It's a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.

Pink Collar Crimes: The premiere of this crime reality series didn't go too well, with a 0.3 for its first episode. It's an improvement on what CBS had been on Saturdays, but not a huge one. I'd say it's a slightly more successful launch than Whistleblower, which started at 0.4 on a night that is far less toxic. A 0.3 start still doesn't inspire much confidence in the show's future, but with costs that are likely incredibly low, it has a chance to return if it can hold around here or even grow. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

The Four: Season two of Fox's answer to American Idol and The Voice just wrapped, with yet another season high of 1.0. Considering that the show nearly hit a 0.6 at one point this season, this is an incredible result, and it proves that the show really does have its own audience. A 1.0 is a very strong Summer number, so this show is getting a huge upgrade, straight to CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Making It: It wasn't a great premiere night for the new crafting series from Parks & Rec's Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman, but it was an OK one. With a 1.1, this is lower than anything World of Dance did in the slot in either of its two seasons occupying it. However, it's still a perfectly acceptable number that's in-line with what Hollywood Game Night did in the slot last year. The only problem here is that, being a new show, it's probably going to drop in the coming weeks. How far it drops will determine whether it'll come back or not, but I have to predict based on the data I have, so it currently LEANS RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 6: Whose Certain To Be Renewed Anyway?

It's time for a brand new edition of the Summer Reality Renew/Cancel. While there weren't any premieres this week, that doesn't mean there's nothing to discuss. Stay tuned for updates and analysis of a handful of this Summer's reality series.

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:

Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.6, 0.3-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Love Connection (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)

Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
The Four (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.9, 0.8-0.9)
To Tell the Truth (0.8 0.7-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Certain to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
American Ninja Warrior (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
America's Got Talent (2.2, 2.0-2.5)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.4, 0.9-1.6)
Celebrity Family Feud (1.2, 1.0-1.8)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3)
What Would You Do? (0.6, 0.5-0.8)

Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Fate Determined:
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
Match Game (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Yet to Premiere:
Pink Collar Crimes (July 2018)
Making It (July 2018)
Bachelor In Paradise (August 2018)
Castaways (August 2018)

Whose Line Is It Anyway?: The longest-running show on the CW's Summer lineup, Whose Line? has been impressively stable this season. It's been at 0.3 since its season premiere, and it's currently up 6% from the 2017 season. It's also a really impressive repeater, frequently tying originals on Monday nights. In addition, CW also relies on repeats of the show in-season when it has a free half-hour, making it more valuable than just its first run. Fans need not worry, it's getting its long-overdue upgrade to CERTAIN RENEWAL.

To Tell the Truth: This week, To Tell the Truth's host, Anthony Anderson, was accused of sexual assault, adding to a long list of powerful men accused in recent months. ABC has yet to respond to the allegations, but the claims are being investigated by the LAPD. If something should arise from this investigation, ABC may decide to just cleanse itself from the decently-rated-but-not-a-hit series. I'm still expecting it to return, perhaps with a new host (it's not like the show hasn't experienced hosting changes in its previous iterations), but I'm downgrading it to LEANS RENEWAL, just to be safe.

Masters of Illusion: While a lower performer than the Monday CW reality shows, Masters of Illusion still does very impressively on Fridays, tying Crazy Ex-Girlfriend's average and beating the averages of previous occupants Dynasty and My Last Days. It's steady with last season, and if that was good enough then, it's good enough now. Like Whose Line?, it's getting an upgrade to CERTAIN RENEWAL this week.

Whistleblower: I had too much to talk about last week to go in-depth on my prediction for Whistleblower, but I have some time to talk about it now. It premiered two weeks ago with 0.4, below anything Celebrity Undercover Boss did in that slot and only matching the night's procedural repreats. That is awful, even for a Friday on Summer. Everything about this show points to it just being cheap filler, used to fill up a slot on the schedule. It doesn't seem like CBS ever really cared about it, and they'll probably just forget about it after it finishes its initial 8-episode order. It starts as a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 5: The Last Defense Isn’t Making a Strong Case for Itself

The past week has been quite busy for reality TV, with multiple premieres from CBS, multiple finales from NBC, and a scheduling change by ABC. Stay tuned for my analysis on some of these shows and more!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:

Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.4-0.5)
Love Connection (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)

Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
The Four (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.9)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.7-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Match Game (0.7, 0.6-0.7)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)

Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Certain to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
American Ninja Warrior (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
America's Got Talent (2.3, 2.0-2.5)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.3, 0.9-1.5)
Celebrity Family Feud (1.3, 1.1-1.8)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3)
To Tell the Truth (0.8 0.7-0.8)
What Would You Do? (0.6, 0.5-0.8)

Fate Determined:
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Yet to Premiere:
Pink Collar Crimes (July 2018)
Making It (July 2018)
Bachelor In Paradise (August 2018)
Castaways (August 2018)

The Last Defense: ABC's newest documentary series has not been a strong performer so far, dipping to an abysmal 0.4 on two occasions and only being able to muster a 0.5 on a good day. Still, I'm not certain that it's done. ABC's expectations for the series couldn't have been very high, considering its terrible timeslot. And despite being a flop, it's still an improvement on last season's timeslot occupant Somewhere Between. I have a hard time seeing it back next season, so it's still a LIKELY CANCELLATION, but it's not executed just yet.

TKO: Total Knock Out: CBS rarely sees summer success outside of a certain-to-be-renewed show called Big Brother, and that didn't stop last week with the premiere of new game show TKO. With a 0.9 start, the heavily-promoted series starring Kevin Hart doesn't look too promising. However, Big Brother isn't known for being a very good lead-in, and we've reached a point where 0.9 isn't a cancelable number in-season, let alone in Summer. We'll have to see how this plays out, but it starts in the LEANS RENEWAL category.

The Proposal: I won't try to say that The Proposal is not a flop, but it's definitely not the post-Bachelorette disaster that we're used to seeing. I've had it in the leaning cancellation category since it started, but I'm changing my tune now. I expected it to collapse pretty much immediately, but it hasn't done that yet. Granted, 0.6 is not a great number, but for a cheap reality series airing at 10 PM, it isn't too horrid, either. The Proposal now LEANS RENEWAL, though that doesn't mean I'm taking my eyes off it.

The Gong Show: I upgraded this show just last week, and I almost instantly regretted it. Not only because it fell back down to 0.5, but because ABC announced a scheduling change for its Thursday lineup, moving Gong to 10 PM and Take Two to 8 PM. A scheduling change of that caliber shows that ABC really doesn't care about The Gong Show, and is pretty much cutting its losses now. THis prompts a downgrade, to a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!