ABC Renew/Cancel - February 1: How to Get Away with Murder is Likely to be Renewed

This wasn't the most exciting week on ABC, where the most notable rating was either Schooled's weaker performance or the third consecutive 1.1 for A Million Little Things. Still, we have new predictions, and a couple of shows to talk about.

Format for predictions:

Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
The Kids are Alright (1.0, 0.8-1.4)
Single Parents (0.9, 0.7-1.3)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Toss-Up

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
Modern Family (1.3, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Black-ish (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Conners (1.6, 1.3-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Schooled (1.1, 1.0-1.3)


How to Get Away with Murder: With a couple of 0.6s, How to Get Away with Murder really looks like it's nearing the end of its run. However, since ABC produces it, I think they will want to give the show a conclusion, so that it is more valuable in streaming. I think that the most likely future for How to Get Away with Murder is a final season of 8 or 10 episodes. It may return to its usual timeslot in the fall, or it might be held off for later in the season or shipped off to another night. But, I expect one last season for the show.

Schooled: The Goldbergs spin-off had its weakest result yet this week, dropping while The Goldbergs rose. However, we can't hold one week against it, and even at this level it looks like a show that ABC would renew. It's going to take worse ratings then this for me to be concerned that it may get canceled.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

ABC Renew/Cancel - January 25: Modern Family is Likely to be Renewed

This week wasn't the most exciting of all when it comes to ABC, but it did provide us with the second week of A Million Little Things in its Thursday slot, and the third week of Schooled, along with the season finale of The Conners. When it comes to my predictions, I have made two changes, as two shows have made their cases for being upgraded.

Format for predictions:

Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
The Kids are Alright (1.0, 0.8-1.4)
Single Parents (0.9, 0.7-1.3)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Toss-Up

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.7, 0.6-0.8)*
Modern Family (1.3, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Black-ish (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Conners (1.6, 1.3-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)*
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.7-1.1)*
Schooled (1.2, 1.1-1.3)

*Includes one preliminary rating, as a holiday delay has delayed final ratings.

Modern Family: ABC's longest-running sitcom is getting quite expensive, and now has serious competition for its crown for the network's top comedy from The Goldbergs. Still, it would be a surprise if it didn't get an 11th season to wrap things up. Negotiations have been ongoing, and they are likely to result in one more season of Modern Family.

Fresh Off the Boat: After its third consecutive 0.7, I now feel confident enough to upgrade Fresh Off the Boat to likely to be renewed. The show is still a tough call, and it could come down to scheduling needs and how much it makes with its syndication deal. Right now though, I expect one more season of comedies on Friday night.

A Million Little Things: Holding onto that season high 1.1 in its second Thursday airing, after a Grey's Anatomy that was (at least preliminarily) down 3 tenths from last week makes A Million Little Things no longer a likely renewal, but a certain one. ABC showed faith in the show and clear desire for it to improve its numbers when they decided to move it to Thursday, and this week's result shows that this faith was not misplaced. Now the only question is where A Million Little Things will air in its second season.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

ABC Renew/Cancel - January 18: Grey's Anatomy is Certain to be Renewed

This week, A Million Little Things moved over to Thursdays to air after Grey's Anatomy, taking over the slot for the winter from Station 19. This week was also week 2 for new Goldbergs spin-off Schooled.

Format for predictions:

Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
The Kids are Alright (1.0, 0.8-1.4)
Single Parents (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Toss-Up
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Likely to be Renewed
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Black-ish (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Conners (1.6, 1.3-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Schooled (1.2, 1.1-1.3)


Grey's Anatomy: It's on season 15, and with no signs of slowing in the ratings, easily being the network's highest rated drama, there's no reason for Grey's Anatomy to go anywhere. This is the kind of show where we will know it's ending before the final season begins.

A Million Little Things: On its move to Thursdays, A Million Little Things shot up in the ratings, tying its series premiere. It seems that ABC successfully got some of the show's DVR viewers to become live viewers, making the move a win for the network. A Million Little Things is quite likely to be on the schedule again next fall.

Schooled: A two-tenth drop to 1.1 is not bad at all for Schooled in week 2, as its lead-in and lead-out both took a one-tenth drop to 1.2. There is no doubt that it will be back for a second season.

Splitting Up Together: After disappointing for a little while beginning with the second episode of its season with its drops from Black-ish each week, Splitting Up Together has only been dropping one tenth in each of its last three outings. Unfortunately for the show, these levels are still fairly low. I wouldn't count this show out though for renewal; if ABC wants a returning show they can plug in at midseason with 10-13 episodes, Splitting Up Together is their most likely choice (unless they decide to save CBS's Life in Pieces if the network cancels it).


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

ABC Renew/Cancel - January 11: Schooled is Likely to be Renewed

It's a new year, and it's time for a new ABC renew/cancel. Since the last edition came out, ABC has announced some premiere and return dates (which includes A Million Little Things moving to Thursdays), The Goldbergs spin-off Schooled has premiered, and we have gotten more datapoints for some of our shows. So, now it's time to take a look at how likely these shows are to return.

Format for predictions:

Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
The Kids are Alright (1.0, 0.8-1.4)
Single Parents (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Toss-Up
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Likely to be Renewed
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.8, 0.7-1.0)
Schooled (1.3)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Black-ish (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Conners (1.6, 1.3-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)


Schooled: Matching both its lead-in The Goldbergs and lead-out Modern Family at 1.3, Schooled starts out as likely to be renewed. It would have to have a fairly large drop for me to not move it up to certain to be renewed next week. It looks like The Goldbergs has launched a successful spin-off.

Station 19: With the mid-season schedule revealing that Station 19 will go on hiatus and a shorter episode order than was originally announced, I have downgraded the show from certain to likely to be renewed. It seems that ABC is disappointed with how the show is performing, and would rather give new show A Million Little Things a shot behind Grey's Anatomy during the winter, when the long-running show tends to get a nice ratings bump. I still would be surprised if the show were canceled, but it does seem like a possibility now.

Fresh Off the Boat: I remain unsure of this show's fate after getting more optimistic when it posted its first 0.7 of the season. Since then it has done another, upon its January return, but it also did a 0.6 and a 0.5 in its two December episodes. Ultimately, this decision may come down to a combination of how much Fresh Off the Boat is making in syndication, and Friday scheduling for next season.

Speechless: As this show continues to be a weak performer, getting its second 0.4 in December and returning in January with a 0.5 out of Fresh Off the Boat's 0.7, I am considering downgrading it once again. Is ABC going to attempt to get a syndication deal for Speechless, or will they assume they won't get one considering how weak of a performer it is, and cut their losses? I am also thinking more and more recently that the two Friday comedies' fates are tied together; it is likely that either both will be renewed or both will be canceled, as I doubt ABC wants to throw a show onto Fridays with one of the two, considering how these two are performing. For now, I'm still leaning towards a Speechless renewal, but we will see how things go in the coming weeks.

The Rookie: Even though this show did quite poorly upon its return, it was significantly delayed this week due to an address from Donald Trump broadcast at 9:00 Eastern time and ABC's decision to still air all of the shows they planned on airing that night. As a result, I'm not going to read anything into this rating, and instead wait for next week to see if the show truly is weaker now.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

ABC Renew/Cancel - December 7: The Good Doctor is Certain to be Renewed

We are nearing the end of 2018, and this is the penultimate ABC renew/cancel of the year. (The last one will be posted on Monday, December 17 instead of the usual Friday posting in order to include Fresh Off the Boat and Speechless's December 14 airings, ABC's final scripted episodes of the year.) This edition includes one prediction change, as things are coming more in focus.

Format for predictions:

Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
The Kids are Alright (1.1, 0.8-1.4)
Single Parents (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Toss-Up
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Likely to be Renewed
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.8, 0.7-1.0)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Black-ish (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Conners (1.6, 1.3-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.4)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)


The Good Doctor: ABC's number 2 drama really showed its strength this week with a new season high. Even without this high though, it's still ABC's number 2 drama, which is why it has been certain to be renewed all season long, despite numbers that tend to be slightly disappointing considering the level of success the show had in its first season.

Single Parents: Hitting a new low this week while lead-in Modern Family remained at the same level as last week has gotten Single Parents finally moved from the toss-up category. It is now likely to be canceled. I talked last week about how its rating then wasn't impressive, and considered downgrading it then. With an even weaker performance this week, that downgrade is now happening.

The Kids are Alright: I moved this show all the way from likely to be renewed to likely to be canceled last week, after it continually disappointed in the weeks where I didn't post an update. After it got a 0.8 this week out of a 1.3 from The Conners, I am even more confident about this decision.


What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!