First Week Peak: It Will Be a Challenge to Compete Against Ted Lasso

Welcome to First Week Peak, a column which discusses shows that are about to premiere on Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Peacock, Hulu, and/or Apple TV. Each discussion concludes with a prediction for the show's weekly peak performance on their respective streaming service's U.S. trending chart, including a reader poll. Final results can be found in our weekly What's Trending On Streaming column. Let us know what you think in the comments!

Futurama (Season 11)
Premieres: August 3 on Hulu
Genre: Adult animation

Synopsis: While delivering pizza on New Year's Eve 1999, Philip J. Fry is accidentally cryonically frozen and thawed out one thousand years into the future. From the creator of "The Simpsons," "Futurama" is a sci-fi animated comedy.

Going For It

Futurama is an extremely recognizable name, thanks to its four-season run on FOX, subsequent success in syndication, first revival on Comedy Central, and now its ongoing second revival on FXX and Hulu. It has 170 episodes and counting that viewers can throw on at any time and have count toward its chart ranking.


Going Against It

Futurama's tenth season performed poorly on Hulu's Top 15 chart upon its premiere last September. It premiered and peaked at #3, and was off the chart completely after eight days on the chart. It spent just two days in the top 5, and three days in the top 10, with the other five days teetering at the lowest end of the chart. It was rarely ever a ratings success for FOX either. Its syndication success makes it one of those shows seemingly everyone knows, but not a lot of people actually watch. Futurama will also have a very limited window to climb up Hulu's chart, with The Shards premiering just two days later.


Daily Peak Prediction: #4 on Hulu
Overall Success Prediction: Medium
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Renew

The Challenge (Season 42)
Premieres: August 5 on Paramount+
Genre: Unscripted competition series
Synopsis: Competitors come together to face grueling physical and mental challenges for their share of $1 million in prize money in MTV's longest-running series.

Going For It

This will be The Challenge's first season as a Paramount+ original series. It previously aired as an MTV original for 41 seasons, dating back to 1998, and was consistently one of the cable network's most popular series. If Paramount+ heavily advertises The Challenge, it could secure a high chart premiere.


Going Against It

Paramount+ was already the streaming home for The Challenge last season. At the time, MTV's flagship competition series failed to chart on the streaming service. Paramount+ could just as likely choose to rather quietly premiere The Challenge and let it sit at the bottom end of the Top 10, if it makes it at all.


Daily Peak Prediction: #8 on Paramount+
Overall Success Prediction: Medium
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Renew

The Shards (Season 1)
Premieres: August 5 on Hulu
Genre: Teen drama
Synopsis: A summer of suspense, seduction and obsession begins with the premiere of FX's "The Shards," the new drama series from executive producer Ryan Murphy based on the acclaimed bestselling novel by Bret Easton Ellis. The series will premiere Wednesday, August 5 on FX and Hulu beginning at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT, as well as on Disney+ internationally. Set against the vivid backdrop of 1980s Los Angeles, the series follows a group of privileged high school seniors at an elite prep school as they navigate identity, sex, jealousy, obsession and the dangers lurking beneath the surface of American adolescence.

Going For It

The latest Ryan Murphy-created 'FX on Hulu' series, The Beauty, debuted at #1 on Hulu's chart back in January. Murphy was also the executive producer behind Love Story, which dominated in February with 16 days atop Hulu's trending chart. The Shards holds a 9.9 Attention Score per Television Stats, an outstanding number for a show that hasn't even premiered yet.


Going Against It

For how much of a powerhouse Ryan Murphy's name is, it doesn't mean his show will be a surefire hit for FX on Hulu. The Beauty dropped to #4 the day after its premiere, though it did manage to get in a few more days at #1 the following week. Sitcom Mid-Century Modern was recently canceled after one season, as was his ABC medical drama, Doctor Odyssey.


Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Hulu
Overall Success Prediction: High
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Renew

Star Wars: Visions Presents - The Ninth Jedi (Miniseries)
Premieres: August 5 on Disney+
Genre: Anime anthology space opera
Synopsis: Today at Star Wars Celebration Japan, an exciting announcement came out of the Star Wars: Visions Volume 3 panel. After Lucasfilm's James Waugh revealed a release date for the nine new Star Wars: Visions shorts - October 29, 2025 - he announced an all-new spin-off series of longer stories from Star Wars: Visions. He invited "The Ninth Jedi" writer and director Kenji Kamiyama to the stage, who thanked the audience for being so supportive and enthusiastic about the adventures of Kara and Juno in "The Ninth Jedi" and the upcoming "Child of Hope." He then announced that fans will watch Kara's journey continue to unfold in an all-new spinoff called "Star Wars: Visions Presents - The Ninth Jedi."

Going For It

Disney+ has had no shortage of Star Wars originals since its inception; most have performed well at least initially, even if some were deemed too expensive to warrant a renewal. The latest Star Wars animation series is Star Wars: Maul - Shadow Lord, which debuted at #1 and has made steady appearances on Disney+'s chart from April through early July. 


Going Against It

Star Wars: Visions Presents - The Ninth Jedi is an anime spinoff of a series of shorts. It's not exactly something primed to perform well on Disney+'s chart, but rather to capture a niche audience.


Daily Peak Prediction: #6 on Disney+
Overall Success Prediction: Low

Sterling Point (Season 1)
Premieres: August 5 on Prime Video
Genre: Teen drama
Synopsis: Today, Prime Video announced the premiere date and shared a glimpse of the new drama series, Sterling Point from Megan Park (My Old Ass). The series will debut all eight episodes globally on August 5, exclusively on Prime Video in more than 240 countries and territories around the world. Sterling Point is a heartfelt, coming-of-age drama led by 17-year-old Annie Jacobson (Ella Rubin). Raised in New York City with her twin brother (Keen Ruffalo) and loving adoptive father (Jay Duplass), Annie's life takes a turn when she inherits her mysterious grandfather's island in Canada. There, she finds new friends, budding romances and untold family secrets. The cast also includes Amélie Elisabeth Hoeferle, Jacob Whiteduck-Lavoie, Daniel Quinn-Toye, Bo Bragason, Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Nikko Angelo Hinayo, Mabel Strachan, Elle-Maija Talifeathers, and Missi Pyle.

Going For It

Sterling Point has a solid-enough 2.0 Attention Score three days ahead of its premiere. While only the 27th-highest among all Prime Video shows, that number is bound to rise significantly once the show actually premieres. Plus, Prime Video does a good job with launching their shows; a #1 premiere for a new series is almost never as hard as it looks for a new series.


Going Against It

Sterling Point does have much ground to make up to catch up to the Attention Scores of Batman (21.7) and Ride or Die (18.8). Premiering against the new season of Ted Lasso on Apple TV could make doing that tougher.


Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Prime Video
Overall Success Prediction: Medium
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Cancel

Ted Lasso (Season 4)
Premieres: August 5 on Apple TV
Genre: Sports comedy-drama
Synopsis: Winner of 11 Emmy Awards, including back-to-back Outstanding Comedy Series wins (2021, 2022). Jason Sudeikis is a football coach leading a British soccer team. What he lacks in knowledge, he makes up for with optimism...and biscuits.

Going For It

Ted Lasso has been climbing Apple TV's TV Shows chart for a few weeks now in anticipation of the release of the fourth season. It went as high as #2 on July 30, and commands a 21.2 Attention Score (the fourth-highest on the platform). 


Going Against It

Ted Lasso will face counter-programming from Hulu, Paramount+, Disney+, and Prime Video, all of which are premiering shows on the same day as Ted Lasso's return. It will also have to break past Silo to reach #1, a show that has topped the chart the vast majority of days in the weeks leading up to Ted Lasso's return.


Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Apple TV
Overall Success Prediction: High
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Renew

My Life with the Walter Boys (Season 3)
Premieres: August 6 on Netflix
Genre: Teen drama
Synopsis: When a tragedy disrupts her life, a teen moves in with her guardian's big family in a small town and learns new lessons about love, hope and friendship.

Going For It

Season 2 of My Life with the Walter Boys spent three weeks on Netflix's weekly US TV Shows chart in late summer 2025, including two weeks at #2. That's greater chart longevity than the first season in December 2023, though a lower peak; the first season spent two weeks at #1. If Season 3 is anything like the first two seasons, it'll grab at least a day at the top spot.


Going Against It

My Life with the Walter Boys currently holds a 2.3 Attention Score, which wouldn't be terrible for an upcoming series, but is concerning for one that has two successful seasons under its belt. It also premieres the day after Ted Lasso on Apple TV, which could make it more susceptible to a slump.


Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Netflix
Overall Success Prediction: Medium
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Already Renewed

Alley Cats (Season 1)
Premieres: August 7 on Netflix
Genre: Adult animation
Synopsis: Outrageous misadventures run wild as feral cats cause chaos on the streets in this no-holds-barred animated comedy from Ricky Gervais.

Going For It

With enough home page visibility, Alley Cats could have as solid debut as anything else getting such exposure. Otherwise, this show does not have a whole lot going for it.


Going Against It

Adult animation isn't one of Netflix's strong suits. While they had some success in the 2010s, even shows like Big Mouth failed to chart in their latter seasons. Alley Cats is British in origin and could be prone to doing better overseas than in the United States. Gervais' latest Netflix series, After Life, did not crack the weekly US TV charts when it aired its third and final season in 2022. It's also premiering on a very competitive week for streaming services, including one on Netflix the day before.


Daily Peak Prediction: Below #10 on Netflix
Overall Success Prediction: Low
Renew/Cancel Prediction: Cancel

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