Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Newlyweds (0.17)
Leans Renewal:
Happy's Place (0.20)
Law & Order (0.20, 0.17-0.26)
Line of Fire (0.22, 0.17-0.26)
Likely Renewal:
The Traitors: New Blood (0.29, 0.24-0.37)
The Voice (0.36, 0.29-0.44)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.40, 0.37-0.46)
Chicago Med (0.45, 0.44-0.46)
Chicago PD (0.34, 0.32-0.35)
Dateline NBC (0.22, 0.20-0.24)
Law & Order: SVU (0.32, 0.24-0.42)
Saturday Night Live (0.76, 0.81-0.71)
Coming Soon:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
The Rockford Files
St. Denis Medical
Sunset PI
Newlyweds: The only new comedy on NBC's fall schedule, Newlyweds debuted last week in a less-than-ideal situation: on Friday at 8:30 PM, airing against the World Series. The latter will change soon, but it will remain in the historically tough time slot behind Happy's Place for the remainder of its first season. It's a slot that NBC has seen great difficulty in. Stumble and Lopez vs Lopez were both canceled in that slot airing after Happy's Place, neither even getting an episode extension. Young Rock and Grand Crew were also axed in the slot when NBC tried a Friday hour earlier in the decade, and ABC had trouble finding something to stick in the hour, too. During its five-season run on Fridays, only one show airing behind Last Man Standing was ever renewed. ABC's later attempt at a Friday night comedy hour would lead to the cancellation of third-season sitcom Speechless, and the pre-announced final season of Fresh off the Boat would later air in the slot before ABC again retired the Friday block. It's a time slot with history - history of canceling shows.
So, the odds were stacked against Newlyweds from the jump, especially given that Happy's Place, while a decent performer, isn't necessarily a huge launchpad. The Reba sitcom hasn't had a season above the league average in the 18-49 demo yet, and that's probably unlikely to change this year. On Friday, Happy's Place debuted with a 0.20 in the demo, and Newlyweds notched a 0.17. In viewership, Newlyweds rose a bit from its lead-in, with about 70,000 more viewers tuning into it than Happy's Place (3.05m vs. 2.98m). That's a minute difference, but still impressive, as 8 PM series tend to be boosted by the local lead-in, and thus, have higher viewership totals. Newlyweds' 85% retention isn't bad, and is a step above Stumble's 73% premiere retention last year, despite premiering one hundredth lower. I can't imagine NBC's expectations for this show were sky-high, given the time slot and the major competition on Fox, but this doesn't give it much room to fall. It's a mixed debut, not totally dooming the show, but giving it a very short leash, too.
One thing that's made me very skeptical of Newlyweds' chances has been the behind-the-scenes turmoil. Creator Gail Lerner was dismissed from the series about halfway though the show's initial order, due to creative differences. The show's production was paused, and NBC later hired Bruce Helford, a veteran sitcom producer of Roseanne fame, to take over as showrunner. The production hiatus was extended to give Helford time to get caught up, and will resume in November. This could easily be a one-time issue, and not ultimately matter much in the grand scheme of things, but it is concerning that NBC already was unhappy with the show's creative decision, leading them to take quick action. If the production troubles continue, this show could easily become more trouble than its worth.
That's not to say the shown is doomed. I struggled with making an initial prediction for the series, and I'm very open to giving it an upgrade if it can prove itself in the upcoming weeks, especially now that it doesn't have to air against a highly-rated sporting event. Its streaming performance was fairly solid in its first week, charting two days and peaking at #3 on Peacock's top ten chart. That's better than the debut of Stumble, but noticeably worse than its own lead-in. If it continues to show promise, that will surely be a positive indicator for renewal. We should get some more information on the specifics of its non-linear performance soon, if NBC's press releases for The Traitors: New Blood and Line of Fire are any indication of things. For now, it leans cancellation.
Happy's Place: As I said, Happy's Place hasn't been a ratings smash. It's done decently for Friday night standards, but isn't among NBC's top-rated hits. The relatively low production costs of a multi-cam sitcom have helped keep it around, and NBC clearly does like it enough to keep it in an 8 PM slot instead of premiering new shows there the last two seasons. Its 0.20 premiere this year is its weakest premiere during its run, and it's the third-lowest rating the typically-stable comedy has ever hit. It obviously had major competition from the World Series this time, so it does make sense for it to be a bit lower, but this was still a notably weak showing for the premiere. The only NBC premiere to rate lower this season was its own lead-out. Does that mean Happy's Place is in trouble? Not necessarily, but I'm gonna be cautious here. Not many NBC sitcoms have made it past the third season recently, and while Happy's Place isn't in cancellation territory yet, it's not doing well enough for me to think its renewal is a lock.
One positive development I've noticed for Happy's Place is its Peacock performance. It's been in the top ten on Peacock since its premiere, which makes this its strongest week ever on Peacock. We don't know how many viewers that actually amounts to, but it's a very good sign for it, nonetheless. How Happy's Place performs next week - both on linear and on streaming - will be a big tell as to whether I'm being a bit too cautious or if Happy's Place is indeed due for a third-season slump. It leans renewal until we have some more information.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | Line of Fire | ||||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | The Traitors: New Blood | Law & Order: SVU | Law & Order | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Newlyweds | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sat | College Football on NBC | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Football | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
