Analysis to come.
Sunday TV Ratings 6/28/26: BET Awards Up from 2025, House of the Dragon Also Rises, Yankees/Red Sox Game Leads
Saturday TV Ratings 6/27/26: Fever/Sparks WNBA Game on CBS Solid Despite Caitlin Clark Absence, Colombia/Portugal World Cup Game Huge, A Castle of Our Own Decent on Hallmark
Analysis to come.
PILOT REVISITED: Mr. Sunshine
Each week, I take a look back at a pilot from the 2010-11 season, first reviewed on my blog during that season. This week, I am looking at the failed Matthew Perry vehicle Mr. Sunshine!
Friday TV Ratings 6/26/26: World Cup Declines but Continues to Easily Lead, Dateline Strong, NHL Draft Up from 2025
Analysis to come.
The Princess Royal Season 6 Premiere - The Mysterious Missing Olivia
The Princess Royal Season 6 Episode 1
The Mysterious Missing Olivia
Raymond Island Season 7 Finale - Eighth of July
Raymond Island Season 7, Episode 15
Eighth of July
What’s Trending on Streaming - June 22-June 27: The Bear Stays Strong with Final Season, Avatar: The Last Airbender Returns in the Shadows of I Will Find You, House of the Dragon Dominant
Wednesday TV Ratings 6/24/26: World Cup Declines, Brilliant Minds Hits Lowest Point of Summer Run, NCIS: Sydney Repeat Builds Strongly on NCIS Repeat
Analysis to come.
Monday TV Ratings 6/22:26: FIFA World Cup Drops in Total Viewers, Sullivan’s Crossing Finale Also Lower, Celebrity Family Feud Repeats Stay Solid
18-49 demo ratings and analysis to come.
Tuesday TV Ratings 6/23/26: NBA Draft Down Slightly from 2025, America’s Got Talent and Password Rise, World Cup Dips on Fox
Analysis to come.
Friday TV Ratings 6/19/26: WWE SmackDown Rises, World Cup Down but Still Dominant, Real Time with Bill Maher Rebounds
Analysis to come.
EMMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS: Comedy Series, Drama Series & Limited/Anthology Series
On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. This week, I am looking at the big three races: Comedy Series, Drama Series and Limited/Anthology Series!
COMEDY SERIES
As usual, there will be eight nominees in the comedy series category and last year's winner, The Studio, is not in the mix. It feels like every year of the 2020s has included the same core of comedies nominated: Hacks (winner in 2024), The Bear (winner in 2023), Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building. Hacks, Abbott Elementary and Only Murders seem almost certain to be among the nominees again. Many are pegging Hacks as the winner for its final season but I am a bit skeptical about that because it's rare for a show to win then lose then win again across years. But we'll get to that conversation about winners later, this is about nominees and Hacks is definitely getting in. Abbott and Only Murders may not be as strong as they once were but it would be surprising to not see them get in among the eight. So the big question is The Bear. The show went from winning the whole thing to still a strong player to getting blanked for wins. Is getting shut out of a nomination next? It very well could be. I think it's teetering on the edge of a nomination at the moment.
Another returnee is Shrinking, which will almost surely get in again for its third season. It may have had more acclaim for its second season but it feels like it has cemented itself as a staple in the category. It's a bit shakier for Nobody Wants This, which had a mixed reception to its second season and seems to have lost momentum since airing last fall. But it still was well-seen so it could definitely get in. There are some other former nominees out there: Wednesday, Palm Royale, Jury Duty, and (yes) Emily in Paris but I'd be surprised if any of them return to the pack (though Jury Duty was a complete surprise the first time around so who's to say it couldn't do it again).
The two newbies with the strongest chances of breaking in are both Apple TV shows. Margo's Got Money Troubles feels very Emmy-baity and it was generally well-received though it didn't seem like it broke through in a huge way. A show that has broken through in such a big way that it went from an unlikely nominee to a likely nominee is Widow's Bay. The buzz has come on so strong for the new horror comedy that if it manages to get into the field, it could absolutely be win competitive.
HBO also has two comedy contenders that are both stronger players for their lead than the series but could still get in. Rooster and The Comeback are both near shoo-ins for their stars Steve Carell and Lisa Kudrow. The series getting in is less of a sure thing. The Comeback got Kudrow nominations for its first two seasons a decade ago and two decades ago but never got in the series race and Rooster received mixed reviews.
A few dark horses include The Chair Company, which just doesn't seem like its getting enough traction, I Love LA, The Four Seasons, Big Mistakes and The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins. Any of those would definitely qualify as upsets. I would personally love to see The Lowdown get in but it doesn't seem like it'll happen.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Hacks
2. Shrinking
3. Only Murders in the Building
4. Abbott Elementary
5. Widow's Bay
6. Margo's Got Money Troubles
7. The Comeback
8. The Bear
Just Behind
9. Nobody Wants This
10. Rooster
11. Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat
DRAMA SERIES
While I think Comedy Series is more of a race than some, I am in agreement that Drama Series is pretty much locked up. It seems hard to imagine any show beating The Pitt. Partly because The Pitt is so successful and partly because there isn't any shiny new show strong enough to pull audience's attention away. But this is about nominations and The Pitt is a lock for a nomination. So what will be the other seven shows on the list?
The next strongest show is probably Paradise, which has a lot of Emmy love (for some reason...). It seems very likely to get in again for its second season. At this point, Slow Horses is a perennial Emmy nominee so a third straight nomination is close to a lock. The Diplomat got in last year for a season that received a very mixed reception so it is very likely it will repeat for a season that was much better received. The Gilded Age aired about a year ago but I still think it will get in after it got a nod for its second season.
Those are the returning shows that seem very likely to get in but there are other potential returning nominees whose chances range from "on the fence" to not likely at all. That starts with two long-timers: Euphoria and Stranger Things. Euphoria got in for its second season but the third season was very divisive so it could be on the outside looking in. Stranger Things is an interesting case. On the one hand, it feels like its days of getting Emmy noms are behind it. But on the other hand, it's probably the most watched show on the list and it has managed to get in the Series Race every time and it has a lot of technical support. Don't be surprised if it gets in for one last hurrah. If Euphoria and Stranger Things have a chance, I'm not sure you can say the same for Bridgerton, The Morning Show, Fallout, Squid Game and The Boys. All four have been nominated before but don't seem likely to return. They are worth mentioning though because you never know.
As far as new shows, it seems like Pluribus is leading the pack. Though the show seems to have lost some momentum since its fall run, I'd be really surprised if it misses. It was too well-liked by fans of the medium and critics so I think it has a spot secured. I also have come around on Task getting a nomination. I wasn't so sure at first after it underperformed at the winter awards but I think its stature has actually grown a bit and it seems likely to get a nomination.
There's also two sequel shows among the contenders. Game of Thrones and The Handmaid's Tale have had lots of Emmy love so will that extend to A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms and The Testaments? Knight seems like it has a really good chance. House of the Dragon has gotten in and Knight was much better received by fans and critics than Dragon. I think it's a longer shot for The Testaments, which has drawn a big audience but may be on the outside looking in, especially after Handmaid eventually cratered in the Emmy discussion after a few big years.
A few others worth mentioning are Industry, which is beloved by many critics but has never been able to get in the Emmy race, Off Campus, which could get the Heated Rivalry love since Heated is ineligible, and Landman. A few dark horses include It: Welcome to Derry, Alien: Earth, broadcast representative High Potential and the cancelled The Boroughs.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. The Pitt
2. Paradise
3. The Diplomat
4. Pluribus
5. Slow Horses
6. Task
7. The Gilded Age
8. A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Just Behind
9. Stranger Things
10. Euphoria
11. The Testaments
LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Unlike Comedy and Drama, the number of Limited/Anthology Series contending is dictated by the number of submissions so there will be five contenders in the category this year. As I've mentioned with acting races, the Limited Series field is full of shows that were generally well seen but received a bit of a shrug from critics. That starts with the second season of Beef. The first season cleaned up a few years ago but there was more of a mixed response for the second and it seemed to come and go quickly. In a stronger year, I would be more worried about it. But this isn't a strong year and I think the recognizable title gets it in.
The Beast in Me was probably one of the most viewed limited series this year (always hard to know for sure with streaming data). Despite the mixed reception, I think it will get in. Love Story is a complicated one. The show received a fair amount of controversy but I still think it's going to get in. Like Beef, it may have had some trouble in a tougher year. The next show worth mentioning might be DTF St. Louis which started with mixed reception but seemed to be a hit with viewers and gain some momentum as the season continued. I think at this point it is getting in.
I don't know what to make of Half Man. It definitely wasn't as well watched as many of the series listed above and it is so darn depressing. But it also feels like an Emmys player and Richard Gadd was an Emmy darling with Baby Reindeer not too long ago. This feels like a show I am going to predict to get in even though I really feel like it could miss and then I'll be mad when it does miss. But I really could see it getting in because it seems like a drop-off of contenders after that.
If All Her Fault was on a service other than Peacock, I would be feeling good about it getting in but Peacock has historically struggled big time to get Emmy love, especially in major categories. This could be the show to break that though. Many thought Lord of the Flies would be a late push Emmy powerhouse but that hasn't really come to pass and it's on the outside looking in now. Many are writing off Monster: The Ed Gein Story but I'm not doing that yet because the first two seasons of Monster both got into the series race even though they also received mixed reviews. Death by Lightning may have been the best reviewed of the bunch but it definitely seems like it's on the outside looking in. His and Hers and Black Rabbit were both well-seen because they are on Netflix but they don't seem likely to break into a field of five. Maybe if it was eight like the Comedy and Drama series.
A few dark horses include The Girlfriend, Murdaugh: Death in the Family, Something Very Bad is Going to Happen, Imperfect Women and Bait.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Beef
2. The Beast in Me
3. DTF St. Louis
4. Love Story
5. Half Man
Just Behind
6. Monster: The Ed Gein Story
7. All Her Fault
8. Death by Lightning
Next Week: My Final Predictions in All Major Races!
Thursday TV Ratings 6/18/26: World Cup on Fox Rises, Surviving Earth Declines, Jersey Shore Family Vacation Rises [+ Analysis]
Fox's FIFA World Cup broadcast (3.37) led the way on Thursday night, while NBC's Surviving Earth (0.22, -0.05) declined from last week's premiere. CBS (0.20/0.18/0.13/0.09) was entirely in repeat mode, as was ABC (0.15/0.12/0.14). Scrabble (0.04, 0.00) matched its week-ago installment on the CW, but Trivial Pursuit (0.03, -0.01) dipped. Key: (R) = repeat.
PILOT REVISITED: Bob’s Burgers
Each week, I take a look back at a pilot from the 2010-11 season, first reviewed on my blog during that season. This week, I am looking at a show that is still on the air today, Bob's Burgers!
Wednesday TV Ratings 6/17/26: Las Culturistas Culture Awards Low, Brilliant Minds Dips Again, Celebrity Wheel of Fortune Repeat Dominates Broadcast [+ Analysis]
NBC drama Brilliant Minds (0.16, -0.01) ticked down on Wednesday night and was more than a full tenth below ABC's Celebrity Wheel of Fortune repeat (0.27). CBS aired encores of Final Twist (0.15), NCIS (0.17), and NCIS: Sydney (0.14), while Fox went with reruns of MasterChef (0.16) and Fear Factor: House of Fear (0.13). The CW aired repeats of Police 24/7 (0.04) and Law & Order Toronto (0.01). Key: (R) = repeat.
What’s Trending on Streaming - June 14-June 21: Widow’s Bay Ends on Top, Love Island USA Continues Domination, Strong Debut for I Will Find You
It's been another week, which means it's time to look at the top shows of the week on Hulu, Disney+, Peacock, Paramount+, HBO Max, Apple TV, Prime Video, and Netflix!
Tuesday TV Ratings 6/16/26: FIFA World Cup Surges as Messi’s Argentina Sweeps Algeria, America’s Got Talent and Password Topple, Fever/Tempo WNBA Game Solid [+ Analysis]
Fox's broadcast of the Argentina v. Algeria FIFA World Cup game (2.99) dominated on Tuesday night, while WWE NXT (0.09, 0.00), seemingly unaffected, held steady on the CW. But the declines were abundant on NBC as America's Got Talent (0.32, -0.13) plummeted, and Password (0.18, -0.07) dealt with a sharp decline. ABC aired repeats of Will Trent (0.19/0.16/0.10), while CBS aired encores of NCIS (0.15), NCIS: Origins (0.12), and NCIS: Sydney (0.12). Key: (R) = repeat.
Monday TV Ratings 6/15/26: Celebrity Family Feud Repeats Easily Top Broadcast, American Ninja Warrior Rises but Remains Low, World Cup Leads [+ Analysis]
American Ninja Warrior (0.19, +0.02) was up from last week on NBC, but it was still below ABC repeats of Celebrity Family Feud (0.29/0.24/0.21). CBS aired repeats of The Neighborhood (0.16/0.15), FBI (0.16), and CIA (0.10), which were lower than Fox encores of The 1% Club (0.22) and The Quiz with Balls (0.18). Sullivan's Crossing (0.05, 0.00) was steady on the CW. Key: (R) = repeat.
EMMY AWARDS PREVIEW: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited/Anthology Series or TV Movie
On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Lead Actor and Actress in a Limited/Anthology Series or TV Movie categories. As mentioned with the Supporting categories, it's a weird and weak year for Limited Series that makes it hard to predict but here's a try!
LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Like all the Limited Series races this year, things feel pretty unsettled. The leading contender at the moment might be Matthew Rhys for The Beast in Me. Even though Beast received mixed reviews, it was well-watched and Rhys is having a moment now for Widow's Bay. It would be ironic, but not entirely unlikely, that he gets in for this performance and not his much better received Widow's performance. Beef isn't quite as strong a contender as many thought it would be but in a weak field, I still think it could pick up a slew of nominations including Oscar Isaac in this category.
The early frontrunner, perhaps by default, was Charlie Hunnam for Monster: The Ed Gein Story. Now many are still predicting Hunnam to get in even if the series doesn't. Despite the mixed reviews, I'm pretty bullish on Hunnam getting nominated given how the Monster series has done for other installments. Like The Beast in Me, Monster and Beef, Black Rabbit only received mixed reviews but it's on Netflix so it's probably better seen than a lot of competitors. That, coupled with Jason Bateman's general Emmy strength, could get him in while his co-star, Jude Law, is much less likely. I feel less confident about Michael Shannon or Matthew Macfadyen's chances for Death by Lightning even though that show received better reviews.
HBO made an interesting call to run Jamie Bell and Mitchell Robertson in Lead for Half Man while putting Richard Gadd in Featured. People seemed very mixed on Half Man but Bell's performance was praised, if enough people saw it. If he manages to get into the field, I think he could be win-competitive. Robertson is much more of a longshot. It seems like Love Story is starting to coalesce as a legitimate contender so that probably helps Paul Anthony Kelly's chances but I'm still not convinced, especially in a field of only five.
Since there are only five slots, the drop off from contenders to longshots or dark horses happens quickly. Riz Ahmed might be one of the few in-betweeners as Bait didn't make much of a splash but did have some critical support. Jon Bernthal is another of those well-seen, poorly-reviewed Netflix stars for His & Hers but I don't think it's happening for him despite his Emmy love for The Bear. It's barely worth mentioning the TV movie names because they never get in but if anyone does, it would be Lewis Pullman for Remarkably Bright Creatures.
A few very long-shot contenders include Jason Momoa for Chief of War, Jason Clarke for Murdaugh: Death in the Family and Winston Sawyers for Lord of the Flies.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me
2. Oscar Isaac, Beef
3. Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
4. Jamie Bell, Half Man
5. Paul Anthony Kelly, Love Story
Just Behind
6. Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit
7. Michael Shannon, Death by Lightning
8. Riz Ahmed, Bait
LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE
There are only five slots available here as well and there's another slew of popular actresses in shows that received mixed reviews at the top. The safest bet seems to be Claire Danes, who is no stranger to Emmy love. As I mentioned above, The Beast in Me was well-watched even though it didn't get a lot of positive reviews and that's probably going to be enough. Next up is probably Sarah Snook. It gives me pause to put her in the second position because Peacock really struggles to get Emmy nominations, but I think this show did well enough and Snook is a big enough name that she will get in.
Similar to Jamie Bell in Actor, Sarah Pidgeon seems like she'll be win competitive as long as she actually gets in. Despite the ickiness some people feel about Love Story, Pidgeon's performance was generally praised so I do think she'll make it in. I am also fairly sure Carey Mulligan gets in for Beef but I am worried that I am overvaluing the strength of Beef. As mentioned above, TV Movies almost never get anyone in but that could change with Sally Field's well-received performance in Remarkably Bright Creatures. We have been down this road before though with TV Movie performances so I'll believe it when I see it.
Kerry Washington has certainly been an Emmy darling before so despite the muted reception to Imperfect Women, she could certainly get in. Meanwhile, The Girlfriend seems to a be a little show that has looked a little better when more shows came out to mixed reviews so I wouldn't totally count out Robin Wright from sneaking into the last slot. Despite it really being a two-hander, it doesn't look like her co-star Olivia Cooke has much of a chance. While I felt like His & Hers wasn't strong enough for Jon Bernthal to get in, the Actress field is a little bit lighter so Tessa Thompson has a clearer path though she's probably still on the outside looking in right now. There's a case to be made for Camila Morrone for Something Very Bad is Going to Happen but I don't think she actually gets in.
After that, we're really talking about longshots. That includes Lili Reinhart for Hal & Harper, Allison Janney for Miss You, Love You (another TV movie), Patricia Arquette for Murdaugh: Death in the Family and Rachel Weisz for Vladimir.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
2. Sarah Snook, All Her Fault
3. Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story
4. Carey Mulligan, Beef
5. Kerry Washington, Imperfect Women
Just Behind
6. Robin Wright, The Girlfriend
7. Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
8. Tessa Thompson, His & Hers
Next Week: The Series Races!
Sunday TV Ratings 6/14/26: Stanley Cup Final Rises for Final Game as Hurricanes Come Out on Top, World Cup Strong on FS1, The Vampire Lestat Ticks Up [+ Analysis]
On ABC, the Stanley Cup Final (1.58, +0.1) gained a tenth in game six as the Hurricanes came out on top. CBS aired repeats of 60 Minutes (0.21), Marshals (0.12/0.10), and Tracker (0.16). MLB on NBC (0.23) lost to a repeat of Fox game show The Quiz with Balls (0.27). Fox also aired repeats of The Simpsons (0.20), Animal Control (0.13), Universal Basic Guys (0.11), and Grimsburg (0.08). The CW aired the film Top Gun (0.06). Key: (R) = repeat.
Saturday TV Ratings 6/13/26: NBA Finals Leap as Knicks Win Title, World Cup Remains Strong, Texas Two-Step OK on Hallmark [+ Analysis]
The fifth and last NBA Finals game of 2026 (7.07, +1.09) exploded past the 7.0 mark in the Adults 18-49 demographic as the Knicks took home the title, putting ABC in a completely different Nielsen rating stratosphere than its competitors. A FIFA World Cup game on Fox (1.91) was huge in its own right but completely dwarfed by the NBA broadcast. WNBA on CBS (0.12) was at a low level, and AVP Pro Beach Volleyball (0.02) also underwhelmed on the CW. NBC aired repeats of American Ninja Warrior (0.07) and Dateline (0.07). Key: (R) = repeat.
Friday TV Ratings 6/12/26: USA/Paraguay World Cup Game Enormous, Toy Story: 30 Years & Beyond Solid, Sheriff Country Repeat Out-Rates Several Originals [+ Analysis]
Fox's broadcast of the USA v. Paraguay FIFA World Cup game posted an enormous 5.92 in the Adults 18-49 demographic, which easily put the network in first place on Friday night. On ABC, the special Toy Story: 30 Years and Beyond (0.24) performed well, but it fell behind a surprisingly strong repeat of CBS's Sheriff Country (0.25). Dateline (0.17, -0.02) declined on NBC. On the CW, the 9 p.m. episode of Totally Funny Animals (0.03, +0.02) was up from last week's premiere, and the series gained even more ground at 9:30 (0.06, +0.03). Key: (R) = repeat.
PILOT REVISITED: Off the Map
Each week, I take a look back at a pilot from the 2010-11 season, first reviewed on my blog during that season. This week, I am looking at ABC's short lived medical drama Off the Map!
Thursday TV Ratings 6/11/26: Surviving Earth Solid in Premiere Despite Drawing Smaller Audience Than The Americas Repeat, Stanley Cup Final Ticks Up Again, Respectable Opening for World Cup on FS1 [+ Analysis]
Nature documentary series Surviving Earth (0.27) got off to a solid start on NBC, and the repeat of The Americas (0.27) that followed boasted full retention. Over on ABC, game five of the Stanley Cup Final (1.48, +0.04) grew slightly from game four. CBS (0.26/0.21/0.16/0.15) aired a mix of comedy and drama reruns. On Fox, the movie Daughter of the Bride (0.12) posted a fairly modest rating. Scrabble (0.04, +0.01) gained a hundredth on the CW, while Trivial Pursuit (0.04, -0.01) lost one. Key: (R) = repeat.
What’s Trending on Streaming - June 7-June 13: Every Year After Knocks Off Campus Off #1 on Prime, Solid Return for Sweet Magnolias, General Hospital Leads Hulu
Another week has passed, which means it's time for a look at the top shows on Hulu, Disney+, Peacock, Paramount+, HBO Max, Apple TV, Prime Video, and Netflix this week!
Wednesday TV Ratings 6/10/26: The Floor Ends Slightly Down, NBA Finals Dip but Remain Massive, Brilliant Minds Ticks Up [+ Analysis]
The Floor (0.25, -0.01) ticked down for its finale on Fox, but it was still comfortably above Brilliant Minds (0.17, +0.01) on NBC, despite the latter rising slightly from last week. In sports news, game four of the NBA Finals (5.98, -0.46) was down from game three, but it was more than enough to put ABC above the other networks in the key demographic. CBS aired repeats of Harlan Coben's Final Twist (0.13), Boston Blue (0.07), and FBI (0.06). The CW went with encores of Police 24/7 (0.02) and Law & Order Toronto: Criminal Intent (0.01). Key: (R) = repeat. (F) = finale.
Foul Play Season 1 Finale - The Sun’ll Come Out Tomorrow
Foul Play Season 1 Episode 13
The Sun'll Come Out Tomorrow
Tuesday TV Ratings 6/9/26: Bear Grylls is Running Wild Ends on a Series Low, Farmer Wants a Wife Finale Ticks Up, Stanley Cup Final Rises Again [+ Analysis]
It was finale night on Fox, and Farmer Wants a Wife (0.14, +0.01) closed out its season with an uptick, but Bear Grylls Is Running Wild (0.08, -0.01) dipped to a new low on its way out. On ABC, the Stanley Cup Final (1.44, +0.02) inched up in game four. On NBC, America's Got Talent (0.45, -0.05) and Password (0.25, -0.04) dealt with some notable post-premiere declines. CBS went with repeats of NCIS (0.16), NCIS: Origins (0.13), and NCIS: Sydney (0.11). WWE NXT (0.09, +0.02) climbed higher on the CW. Key: (R) = repeat. (F) = finale.
EMMY AWARDS PREVIEW: Lead Actor & Actress in a Drama Series
On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Lead Actor and Actress in a Drama Series categories. It's sort of a reverse of the Comedy Lead categories with a dominant frontrunner on the Actor side this time and a more wide-open race on the Actress side.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
This race feels a little bit over before it begins. While he was in a tight race last year with Adam Scott, this year feels like there is not really a threat to stop Noah Wyle from taking home his second straight award for The Pitt. So the question is more about who will fill out the category only to end up losing to Wyle?
It has to start with Sterling K. Brown, who was nominated for Paradise last year and won this award in 2017 for This is Us. He seems sure to get back in for the second season of Paradise, which was a big hit for Hulu. And though he struggled to get in for the first couple years of his series, Gary Oldman is now a standby for the category and will likely get a third straight nomination for Slow Horses. The category was rounded out last year by Scott and Pedro Pascal and both are not eligible this year so there will be at least two changes.
A previous nominee from 2024 could get back in. Walton Goggins got a nod for the first season of Fallout and could certainly get back in. I'm not quite sure what to think of Goggins' chances. On the one hand, he is a well-liked actor and the field isn't that strong, just like in 2024. On the other hand, Fallout does not seem like a show that's going to continue to be an Emmy player as it continues on. So we'll see. Idris Elba was also a nominee two years ago for Hijack but it would be really surprising to see him get back in after the second season of Hijack was mostly ignored and/or disliked. And there's also a previous winner on the list: Lee Jung-Jae was a surprise winner for Squid Game in this category in 2022 but Squid has fallen off the Emmy map so a nomination seems unlikely.
As far as possible new nominees, Mark Ruffalo is leading the pack for Task. I'm not totally sold on Task being a major player but Ruffalo definitely feels like the strongest contender for HBO's drama. Speaking of HBO dramas, Peter Claffey is a contender for A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. The Game of Thrones universe has never been a huge draw for acting nominees (aside from Peter Dinklage) but Seven Kingdoms was well-received. Jon Hamm did not make it in for the first season of Your Friends and Neighbors but was a perennial contender for Mad Men and could break through for the second season of a fairly successful Apple show.
After that, it gets trickier. While Keri Russell has been a regular nominee for The Diplomat, that hasn't extended to Rufus Sewell but maybe it will at some point. Billy Bob Thornton has snuck onto the Golden Globes list for Landman, which is a huge hit for Paramount+. But I just really struggle with the idea of him actually getting an Emmy nomination for that show. There's been a bit of a sentimental push for Antony Starr to get in for the final season of The Boys, but those types of things rarely happen when they've never been nominated before. Tom Hiddleston was nominated in the Limited category back in 2016 for The Night Manager but the second season, which arrived ten years later, didn't seem to make much of an impact.
A few dark horses who seem very unlikely but are worth mentioning are Morgan Spector for The Gilded Age, Belmont Cameli for Off Campus, Alfred Molina for The Boroughs and Billy Magnussen for The Audacity.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Noah Wyle, The Pitt
2. Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
3. Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
4. Mark Ruffalo, Task
5. Peter Claffey, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Just Behind
6. Walton Goggins, Fallout
7. Jon Hamm, Your Friends and Neighbors
8. Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Last year's winner, Britt Lower, is ineligible this time around and in fact, only two of last year's five nominees are eligible for Lead Actress in a Drama Series. They are Keri Russell for The Diplomat and Kathy Bates for Matlock. Russell is a shoo-in for a nomination and might be a shaky frontrunner at the moment. Bates is more of a question mark. She was picked by many to win last year but that didn't happen and then Matlock's second season didn't make as much noise as the first. She could still get in because she's Kathy Bates after all. But she is not in nearly as strong a position this year.
There is a former winner in our midst though. Zendaya was a surprise winner in 2020 for Euphoria and then she did it again in 2022. Zendaya is as popular as ever but Euphoria was much more divisive in its long-delayed third and final season. Still, I expect Zendaya will make it in and if she does, she certainly could win for a third time for the role that helped catapult her into stardom.
As far as other contenders, Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon have each gotten in twice for The Morning Show and missed once. This definitely feels like the shakiest ground they've been on and it would not be surprising to see both miss for the first time as I think the fourth season of The Morning Show will plummet in nomination count from the third season. Recent Tony nominee Carrie Coon was nominated two years ago for The Gilded Age and could get back in even though the season aired around a year ago. Her co-star Christine Baranski was nominated in Supporting two years ago but has a tougher road ahead now that she is in Lead.
As far as potential new nominees, the one leading the pack is Rhea Seehorn for Pluribus. When Pluribus was airing in the fall, it seemed like Seehorn was going to walk away with the whole thing easily. But it seems like the show has lost some momentum. I still expect Seehorn to get in and perhaps win but I don't think she's as strong as she was at one point. Maybe that will change when the nominations come out. And then there's Chase Infiniti. She didn't get an Oscar nomination this year but was a key role in the Best Picture winner before starring in The Testaments. Elisabeth Moss got nominated for years for The Handmaid's Tale and its sequel seemed to do pretty well with viewers so Infiniti could be a surprise nominee. We already talked about Michelle Pfeiffer in the Supporting category for Margo's Got Money Troubles. She is Taylor Sheridan's best hope for a nomination with The Madison but I just don't see it happening.
Kristin Scott Thomas has been in the discussion for years but still hasn't gotten a nomination for Slow Horses so I don't think it'll happen this far into the run. Ella Purnell had a decent chance two years ago to get in for Fallout but as I mentioned above, I don't think Fallout will start picking up MORE above the line nominations. And there's always love for Myha'la Herrold on Industry but that has never led to a nomination.
A few dark horses include Kaitlin Olson for High Potential (though two broadcast nominees in this category would be WILD), Nicole Kidman for Scarpetta and Sydney Chandler for Alien: Earth.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Keri Russell, The Diplomat
2. Zendaya, Euphoria
3. Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
4. Kathy Bates, Matlock
5. Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Just Behind
6. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
7. Chase Infiniti, The Testaments
8. Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Next Week: Lead Actor & Actress in a Limited/Anthology Series!
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