Believe it or not, the 2026-27 TV season isn't far away, with fall premieres starting in a little over a month. With that in mind, it's a good time to take a look ahead at ABC's upcoming season and see which shows look safe, which are on the bubble, and which are in clear trouble.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
RJ Decker
Shifting Gears
Leans Renewal:
9-1-1: Nashville
The Rookie: North
Untitled Grey's Anatomy spinoff
Likely Renewal:
9-1-1
Abbott Elementary
Grey's Anatomy
Scrubs
The Rookie
Will Trent
Certain Renewal:
High Potential
9-1-1: While still a solid ratings performer, 9-1-1 isn't quite the hit it once was. It'll be in season ten next year, and it's a pretty expensive show, filming in LA with a large cast that has mostly been with the show from the beginning, and using special effects. Last season, 9-1-1 ranked 25th in multiplatform+35 in total viewers, with 9.4 million tuning in. That's a decline of around 15% from the previous season, when it drew 11.1 million viewers - a fine hold, but it is showing its age a bit. One day, it's going to have to end. I don't expect next season to be that end, but I can't entirely rule it out this early on. That 9.4 million viewer total ranks it fourth among ABC's scripted series, and it's one of the only current ABC series in syndication. It's also quite valuable internationally, and is a draw for their streaming platforms, given how much of its audience comes from streaming. ABC won't part with it until they have to, and while they surely won't want it to be next season, I doubt Fox wanted to give it up when they did, either. The major difference here, of course, is that ABC produces it, and rakes in a ton of money. It's a very likely renewal, the same can not be said about its spinoff.
9-1-1: Nashville: On the topic of that spinoff, 9-1-1: Nashville has not been quite the hit ABC wanted it to be. With 8.1 million viewers in MP+35, it's on par with ABC's comedies, and not their higher-rated dramas. It did manage to mildly improve on Doctor Odysset's MP+35 rating (8.1M vs. 7.7M), but that's probably not the increase ABC was expecting. In linear ratings, Nashville proved to be a net negative by the end of the season, with Grey's Anatomy matching or exceeding it in the demo at the end of the season. Its retention from 9-1-1 was weak, and it seemed to decline as time went on. ABC was never going to cancel a 9-1-1 spinoff after a single season without it being an even worse ratings disaster than Doctor Odyssey, but next season will be a test. If it can stabilize where it is, ABC may give it another go. If it continues to decline, they can cut their losses - especially if their other new spinoff series are both successful. It leans renewal at this point.
Abbott Elementary: Once shiny and new, Abbott Elementary is somehow heading into its sixth season, and will surpass 100 episodes early next season. ABC is still giving it full seasons (as in, a full 22 episodes), one of the very few shows that say that in 2026. If that hasn't changed with season six, that's a solid indication that ABC is still quite devoted to the series, which would line up with how they've treated it over the years. It's not a huge hit in total viewers, typing 9-1-1: Nashville and Shifting Gears with 8.1 million viewers in MP+35, but it draws in a young crowd, and is one of ABC's top series in the 18-49 demo. The importance of that demo has decreased with the rising importance of streaming, but Abbott's performance in that metric remains impressive nonetheless. The only reason this isn't a lock for renewal is due to the show's own cast (including creator Quinta Brunson) indicating that they may be ready to move on in the coming years. With the show in season six, contracts are surely up soon, and creators may decide to just end the show rather than moving ahead without principle cast members continuing. I don't think that's an avenue we're quite ready to head down. It's a likely renewal.
Grey's Anatomy: At this point, it's quite clear that Grey's Anatomy will go on as long as long as its creative team wants to continue. Even the semi-departure of its titular character, who transitioned from full-time to recurring a few seasons ago, hasn't slowed the show down. Its ratings are far from their heyday, and it is one of ABC's lowest-rated series in every regard. Yet, they're still spinning it off next season. That's because it's still very valuable - a cash cow, if you will. It has value beyond its ratings, and it's a franchise with international appeal. When it does end, which it presumably will, we'll get a long advanced notice. It's a likely renewal, and you can probably expect another mid-season prediction upgrade once it becomes clear that it's still full-steam ahead.
High Potential: The only scripted ABC show I'm entirely certain will return next season is High Potential. While it was surprisingly relegated to midseason, ABC is not going to cancel what has been a wildly successful series for them. This season, it ranked as their #1 show in MP+35 viewers, and broadcast's #3 show, with sixteen million tuning in. That's almost entirely steady with last year's 16.1 million viewers. Aside from its massive ratings, a major advantage it has over other top ABC series is its age. Being in only its third season, High Potential will be a lock for several seasons to come, barring a major collapse. Perhaps the extended hiatus will hurt it, but it's not going to be enough to put it at risk. It's a certain renewal.
RJ Decker: This was the toughest renewal to predict last season (really, the only tough call on ABC), and in the end, I got it wrong. So I could, admittedly, be entirely wrong again this season. It was unexpected to see ABC schedule a show that was a total linear dud behind TV's biggest hit (Dancing with the Stars), bumping another huge hit to midseason, but it does make some bit of sense. High Potential seemingly wasn't benefiting from the Dancing with the Stars exposure, so trying something new at 10 isn't a terrible idea. RJ Decker is still early enough in its run that a strong lead-in can certainly help it, though I'm not sure if it will. Dancing with the Stars was once a great lead-in, but maybe these new viewers of the show aren't willing to stick around for whatever airs behind it on ABC. It's a different era, and we even saw a proven hit like High Potential struggle in that spot. ABC is taking a big gamble on RJ Decker, and it has the potential to either surprise and turn into a hit (a la Will Trent) or remain a dud. Its L+7 demo performance showed little potential (just a 0.31 average), but its MP+35 viewership wasn't so bad, so there is some semblance of a chance for it to do well. In the end, I do expect it will be canceled, failing on its second chance, but it's too early to be very confident about it. It leans cancellation.
The Rookie: This procedural has defied the odds, making it to season nine despite being a partially-owned 10 PM drama that was drawing middling ratings years ago. It's rebounded in recent years, and attracted the sixth-largest audience of any broadcast series last season in MP+35 ratings (10.6 million viewers). It's also a strong demo performer, ranking fourth there in L+7 among ABC scripted programs (ahead of all dramas but High Potential). I'm always so torn on The Rookie, unsure of when its age and expense will outweigh its ratings success, but it feels like it has more life in it now than it has in a long time. I don't see it being axed before season ten, and it's starting as a likely renewal this year.
The Rookie: North: Ultimately, I have no data to make up a prediction here, since this show hasn't premiered yet, nor do we even have a premiere date or any scheduling news. I still would expect a renewal, unless it's truly a ratings disaster. The Rookie: Feds, of course, was axed after a single season, but The Rookie wasn't as strong then, and that failure did not deter ABC from wanting The Rookie to be a franchise. I think they'll be patient with North, one of only two new series for them this season. It leans renewal.
Scrubs: This sitcom was surprisingly durable last season, holding very steady for a revival series, which are known for their large week-by-week drops early in their runs. While it never matched its stellar 0.66 premiere, it never went lower than the 0.39 it notched in its third week. ABC is rushing it back to the air in the fall, favoring it over Shifting Gears. Its multiplatform performance was really solid, being ABC's most-watched sitcom with 8.7 million viewers. Its 0.61 L+7 demo made it one of their highest-rated series in that metric, as well. It likely won't be as strong next season, but it's surprised in the past. ABC is clearly high on it, for good reason, and I don't have much reason to doubt its renewal chances. It's a likely renewal.
Shifting Gears: The Tim Allen sitcom is a strong linear ratings performer, but it falls in the rankings with delayed viewing added in. It averaged 8.1 million viewers this season, which is respectable, but still among the lowest on ABC. Its L+7 demo rating was respectable as well, but again, not as high as its linear ratings would suggest. Both of those figures were still easily renewable, but it sure took ABC a while to make up their minds on it. Despite being the first scripted show of the season to air its finale last season, it was among their last series picked up for another season. ABC waited until the end of April - three months after the season ended - to officially renew it. They've also pushed it from the fall to midseason in favor of Scrubs, meaning it'll be off the air for at least eleven months - a long time for a casually-viewed sitcom to be off the air. I don't doubt that Shifting Gears can still perform well when it returns, and I don't expect it to completely collapse upon its return. However, I'm getting concerned about just how much ABC actually values it. It seems like an afterthought compared to Scrubs, and with ABC seemingly determined to keep both shows as limited runs, I think it's the show they'd choose to axe to make room for a new comedy series, if they had to. Sometimes, you make predictions that don't necessarily line up with the hard data, going with your gut instead. My gut says ABC isn't inclined to order a fourth short season of Shifting Gears, and it leans cancellation. It does have plenty of time to change my mind, though!
Untitled Grey's Anatomy spinoff: You can apply everything I said about the Rookie: North to this series, but add in the fact that it's a spinoff of ABC's most well-known hit series, a storied franchise for the network. While ABC hasn't shied away from cancelling Grey's spinoffs before, it has yet to have a spinoff that lasted just one short season. I don't think that'll be happening this season, either. It already leans renewal, despite not having a title, a cast, a schedule spot, or even an official logline.
Will Trent: If ABC were to surprisingly axe one of their veteran dramas next season, I think Will Trent isn't an entirely impossible candidate. Their midseason schedule is going to be a bit unpredictable, given everything that they have to fit in, and we could potentially see Will Trent losing its 8 PM time slot if ABC wants to use that hour to boost a less established series. If it's downgraded, that would be a sign it could be in trouble. There's still a very strong chance it keeps that slot, which would probably confirm it's cruising toward season six. It's done well in multiplatform viewing, though its demo rating is a bit shakier, suggesting it's something of a time slot hit in that regard. It's still doing well enough to easily justify a renewal, and ABC still seems high on it (with many repeats this summer), but something tells me it won't equal the long runs of fellow ABC procedurals like The Rookie or 9-1-1. It's a likely renewal, but probably the shakiest prediction of that bunch.
What do you think of these predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!
