ABC: The Winners and Losers

Welcome to the first edition of "The Winners and Losers", where I take a look back at ABC's 2015-16 television season and access which shows were the biggest winners and which shows could have done better.

WINNERS

Grey's Anatomy
After years of trouble in the Thursday at 8pm time slot, ABC saw its second straight season of success there with Grey's Anatomy. It's currently ABC's #2 scripted show, averaging a 2.23 A18-49 rating, and is down just over 6% year-to-year--less than almost every other show on broadcast. It's skewing slightly older this season, as shown by the fact that it's lost less than 2% of its total viewers. It's been clear for a while that when this ends, it'll be a Shonda decision and not a Mouse decision.

The Bachelor
The Bachelor is perhaps the show on broadcast television people most love-to-hate, because for all the people who complain about the show, it's still UP (0.31%) year-to-year, which is something no other ABC show can say. It averaged a 2.36, making it ABC's #2 show and #1 non-scripted show. Not bad for a bridge series airing its 19th cycle.

The Little Comedies That Could
Rounding out the winners list for ABC are "the little comedies that could". I'm referring to The Middle, The Goldbergs, and Last Man Standing, all of which were by and large marginal renewals that some questioned when they made it into a second season. The Middle and The Goldbergs have blossomed into hits, with both doing better in ratings relative to other shows than ever before. The Goldbergs is currently averaging a 2.03, down less than 7% year-to-year and remaining ABC's #2 comedy and #4 scripted show. The Middle is just a tad behind it at a 1.91, down a little over 4%. It's ABC's #3 comedy and #5 scripted show overall, showing how strong ABC's comedy department is compared to dramas this season. In fact, in recent days The Goldbergs and The Middle have been ABC's #3 and #4 shows due to Scandal's recent ratings collapse.

Meanwhile, Last Man Standing is still chugging along on Fridays with a 1.21 A18-49 average, a rating that neither of the Tuesday comedies can say. Down less than 5% year-to-year, this show would be an obvious renewal if it wasn't for Tim Allen's contract. Most expect a renewal like always though. Last Man Standing has the 2nd-healthiest year-to-year trend in ABC's scripted department, behind only The Middle.

LOSERS

Bridge Season
Bridge season for ABC is still more of an experiment that is a great idea that hasn't been executed properly--kind of like The Muppets. American Crime was ABC's highest-rated bridge show this season--and oh yeah, it's #20 in the scripted department of 25. At least it gets critical attention, something Marvel's Agent Carter (0.79, down 47%), Galavant (0.63, down 52%), and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.65) can't say.

The Muppets
It's a bit deceiving that The Muppets is currently ranked #11 on ABC's scripted ratings chart. It had everything going for it: a well-received pilot presentation, promos that got everyone excited, a new girlfriend for Kermit, bringing a Disney brand to ABC, finding a way to bring new life into Tuesday, guest stars, and the list goes on. It premiered to a 2.9 A18-49 demo. The problem was that not many people were particularly compelled by the pilot episode. Because that 2.9 turned into a 2.0 for the second episode, and by the time they hit the fourth episode it was at a paltry 1.3 rating. Not exactly the rating anyone was expecting, leaving Fresh Off The Boat to fend for itself and spend a second straight season making do with a not-so-ideal situation. Since this show was really supposed to succeed and ABC spent so much money promoting it, they decided to switch show runners and retool it, and even slightly upgraded it to the 8:30 time slot, which only sent it into fractional territory for its final six episodes. There has been talk that it will return for a second season, possibly in a Galavant-like role, but don't be fooled if it does; this was a giant ratings loss for ABC and if it returns will be because they're The Muppets, and are owned by Disney.

Tuesday at 10
What ABC has aired Tuesday at 10pm this season and two seasons ago make last season's Forever actually look good. A total of five weeks have been devoted to scripted programming in the time slot before they got replaced by equally low rated, yet cheaper, reality filler. I don't think anything has ever gotten a rating that wasn't fractional there this season. Even Beyond the Tank, which was holding almost all of Shark Tank in its three-week event last May was hitting consistent 0.5s in the time slot. The sad part is that the competition isn't overly intimidating; Chicago Fire does well for a 10pm show but Limitless shouldn't be something that you're afraid to counter-program against.

Paul Lee
Paul Lee's time at ABC had its ups and downs. They had a great season last year, but there has been some slippage this season. Reportedly his vision for the network wasn't in line with Ben Sherwood's, who wants more procedurals to Lee's serials. Time will tell if bridge season is kept, but Paul Lee's term came to an abrupt end in the eyes of the public a couple months ago. I do think that his bridge season idea was a great idea and hope to see it continue in some capacity.

The Future of the Night: ABC Friday

Welcome to a segment I call "The Future of the Night". The format is I take a look at a night on the network's schedule, see what could use improvement, and come up with scenarios which could potentially solve it. First, I present a short argument as to why it could work, then play Devil's Advocate with my reasoning, and then present the bottom line. Enjoy, and fee free to leave your opinions by leaving a comment!
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As ABC watches many other nights start to crumble, Friday is a relatively bright spot on their schedule on the surface. The Last Man Standing/Dr Ken comedy block at 8pm is doing better than the block on Tuesday. Shark Tank is still a solid reality player even if it isn't what it once was (almost nothing is). And 20/20 is 20/20. However, contract negotiations may lag the Tim Allen-led Last Man Standing despite good-for-Friday ratings and a syndication deal, and Dr Ken's fate may be complementary to that of Last Man Standing's. Worst case scenario and we no longer have an 8pm comedy block and nothing clear to replace it. So, here are some options ABC has for Friday.

Option 1: Stay Steady

Why It Will Work: There's really nothing wrong with Friday. Even if 20th Century Fox has to lower the licensing fee for Last Man Standing even more, a renewal would mean more solid ratings on a Friday. And realistically what could replace it? Moving a weekday comedy to the night would only
leave a major hole in their schedule.

Why It Won't: Well, you can't stay steady if you don't have all your shows renewed, right?

Bottom Line: As long as Tim Allen cooperates, Fridays should be a no brainer for ABC next season.

Option 2: Dr Ken Squeaks Out a Renewal and Launches a New Comedy
Why It Will Work: In a world where ABC can't bring back Last Man Standing but also expects Dr Ken to be profitable without it (which is iffy), ABC can move Dr Ken to 8pm an have it launch a multi-cam at 8:30. It won't be the same as this year, but it'll be the next best thing.

Why It Won't: There's a reason ABC only has a couple multi-cam pilots this season. They'll develop them, but they don't seem heavily invested in the genre. It looks like the block could be all-or-nothing unless a pilot like The Fluffy Shop tests absolutely though the roof.

Bottom Line: If this option happens, ABC might see itself with a fractional comedy hour on Fridays. Last Man Standing is severely undervalued, and I don't think a multi-cam block should continue without it.

Option 3: All Reality
Why It Will Work: If there's no comedy block, there's really no drama that would be able to move to Friday. Example: SHIELD would be fractional for sure, and it would make no sense to air a Marvel show on a day where Marvel wants you to go out and see its latest movie in theaters. Air something like Beyond the Tank or What Would You Do? here, or time share them. If you bench one or two scripted shows, you won't need Beyond the Tank every time something flops.

Why It Won't: This option would more or less be ABC giving in on Fridays. Really, all reality? That would leave a network like NBC or FOX to majorly capitalize on less scripted competition, and may not be a lineup that looks particularly pleasing to advertisers.

Bottom Line: When all else fails, go to Plan C. This is it. This could be what a future without Tim Allen looks like for ABC.

What do you think? Are there any other somewhat-plausible options that I didn't cover? Let me know in the comments below!

Of Kings and Prophets Pulled from the Schedule by ABC

To not many people's surprise, Of Kings and Prophets has been pulled from the schedule. The show premiered to just a 0.8 A18-49 rating and fell to a 0.5 in its second week. It was only a matter of
when it would get pulled; turns out, it wouldn't even last as long as Wicked City. Beyond the Tank will replace it.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments!

ABC ANNOUNCES MIDSEASON SCHEDULE

ABC has announced its midseason schedule. Some notes:

Premiering Week of January 3rd

-Galavant (Sunday at 8)
-The Bachelor (Monday at 8)
-Agent Carter (Tuesday at 9)
-American Crime (Wednesday at 10)
-My Diet is Better Than Yours (Thursday at 8)
-Beyond the Tank (Thursday at 10)

And now, for what you've all been waiting for...the just-announced time slots of midseason shows! Here goes:

-The Real O'Neals will premiere Wednesday, March 2nd double pumped after The Middle and Modern Family. Sound familiar?
-The Family will premiere Thursday, March 3rd at 9, and will move into its regular time slot on Sunday, March 6 at 9
-ABC has decided to go ahead with its Fresh Off The Boat-Real O'Neals Tuesday block, which will premiere March 8
-Of Kings & Prophets takes the 10pm time slot that same night
-The Catch premieres Thursday, March 24 at 10

Other notables:

-The Muppets will come back on February 2 and be off the air by March 1
-TGIT returns February 11
-Nashville returns March 16

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What do you think of the schedule? Let me know, I always enjoy reading your comments!

What Does ABC's Future Look Like?

Hi! I'm Hunter, author of the summer renew/cancel predictions, and this is my first of five posts about the futures of the major broadcast networks. First up is ABC. ABC had a good year in 2014-15, but will that continue? It has Shondaland and a solid Wednesday comedy block to help it, but some shows, such as Agents of SHIELD and Modern Family ended the last season on lows, which could be scary to some ABC executives. How will ABC do in the 2015-16 season? What shows will come back in 2016-17? And how might the network do when its older shows end? Those are some of the questions that I will try to answer!

One of ABC's biggest concerns heading into this season may be what the low finale numbers of Agents of SHIELD, Modern Family, and Black-ish mean. Are the shows going to fall this season? Was it a fluke? Modern Family and Black-ish's finale ratings are more likely to be a fluke. They aired without new episodes of The Middle and The Goldbergs at 8:00 and 8:30. Black-ish is obviously lead-in dependent, but Modern Family shouldn't be affected by repeats as lead-ins, right? Most likely, many viewers watch the whole Wednesday comedy block (or at least The Middle and Modern Family) and either assumed that Modern Family was a repeat as well, or decided that since only the 9:00 hour was new, they would rather DVR the episodes or watch them on Hulu or some OnDemand service. Yes, Modern Family is dying, but not as quickly as the season six finale rating suggests. Agents of SHIELD on the other hand may be in trouble. Luckily for fans, SHIELD has two seasons under its belt, and has been renewed for a third, and since these seasons are all 22 episodes, a forth season will happen. But, SHIELD could be the new Revenge, four-and-done, with not-good ratings by the time it gets to its forth season.

There are four death slots on ABC's schedule, in my opinion: Sundays at 9:00, Sundays at 10:00, Tuesdays at 10:00, and Fridays at 8:30. Sundays at 9:00 aren't as bad as the rest. Revenge and Resurrection both started out doing well when they first aired there, but both shows fell. Revenge was lucky and was on its way to syndication and just got moved an hour to 10:00. Resurrection, however, was canceled after a low-rated second season. Secrets & Lies did decently there last spring, despite looking like it would be canceled at the start. Blood & Oil looks sure to bomb there however. When you go to 10:00 that same night, your chances fall even further. Betrayal, Red Widow, 666 Park Avenue, GCB, and Pan Am all failed there before Revenge moved there and aired its last low-rated season-and-a-half. Quantico is liked by reviewers, which makes me think it has a shot at a full season, but I think that the timeslot will eventually kill it, and I don't expect a season two. Tuesdays at 10:00 have also been very deadly, just ask Forever, Mind Games, Killer Women, Lucky 7, and Body of Proof, the five shows that were canceled after airing there since the end of Private Practice. Beyond the Tank shouldn't do too poorly there, but it's only airing there for a short time, then Wicked City takes over. I originally thought that it could do well, but now that it is premiering at the end of October, and is still only ten episodes, it looks like it will be a victim of poor scheduling, which is especially bad in a poor timeslot, like the one its in. Fridays at 8:30 has also been a bad timeslot. Cristela, The Neighbors, and Malibu Country were all canceled after airing a season here. Will Dr. Ken be different? I highly doubt it.

This year, ABC has six returning comedies (not including Once Upon a Time winter bridge Galavant): Fresh Off the Boat, The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, Black-ish, and Last Man Standing. ABC has four hours of comedy each week, as they have every year since the 2012-13 season. Even with how well ABC comedy is doing, adding a fifth hour of comedy to the week would be crazy, and ABC is not going to have only one new comedy on the schedule next fall. This means that, unless one of those six is held for mid-season 2017, any renewal of a new comedy (The Muppets, Dr. Ken, The Real O'Neals, Uncle Buck) means a cancelation of one of those. I would be shocked if ABC canceled one of their Wednesday comedies, and if The Muppets didn't do well enough to warrant a renewal. That's five comedy renewals. Dr. Ken and Uncle Buck most likely won't do very well, which leaves Fresh Off the Boat, The Real O'Neals, and Last Man Standing to fight for one renewal. Now, there is a chance that two of these will get renewed. ABC could hold one for mid-season, though that is unlikely, as the last time ABC held a returning comedy for mid-season they had four new comedies in the fall (Suburgatory was the returning comedy, The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Back in the Game, and Super Fun Night were the new comedies). The other chance for two of the three getting renewed is if The Middle or Modern Family decide that seven is enough seasons. It doesn't seem very likely for Modern Family to end after season seven, maybe season eight when most of the kids are grown up. But The Middle could decide to end in 2016. If not, Fresh Off the Boat will likely beat The Real O'Neals and Last Man Standing to a renewal, but if so, those two shows could be competing for the final spot. But, even if Last Man Standing is canceled, it could move to FOX or a FOX-owned station.

But, Fresh Off the Boat and Last Man Standing aren't the only returning shows that need to worry about if they are getting another season. Sophomore shows Agent Carter, American Crime, and Galavant all got renewals last May that were more on the surprising side. American Crime was most likely renewed due to critical acclaim and Galavant was renewed most likely due to music sales, because both shows got poor ratings. Agent Carter didn't get as poor of ratings, and the fact that it is a Marvel show helped. How far can these three shows fall to get them canceled? It's a question that will be difficult for us to answer. Secrets & Lies is another show in its second season that isn't so sure to get a third. Last season, it started at a rating that made it look like it would be canceled, but it grew throughout the season and ended up with high enough ratings to be renewed. However, in season two the show will have a new co-star opposite Juliette Lewis and is planned to air in a new timeslot. This could negatively affect the ratings. Nashville is another show that is probably worried about its future. It will be airing its forth full season this year, bringing it to enough episodes for syndication. The ratings have been mediocre in season three, so most likely the things that might get it a season five are music sales and syndication money.

Looking farther ahead, there are a few questions I have about what ABC's 2016-17 schedule will look like. The first is about Friday comedies. I predict that Last Man Standing will not return to ABC, so what will ABC do on Fridays? ABC is definitely going to still have four hours of comedy, and I don't see them putting an hour anywhere else on their schedule. So what comedies will go there? At least one returning comedy will go there, maybe two. I think two will go there, and I'm predicting Fresh Off the Boat and Black-ish. Those two are most likely going to be the lowest rated of the six comedies they renew. Another day that's scheduling could be interesting is Thursday. If The Catch gets a full second season, will it stay on Thursday, or will it move to another day? Two other returning dramas that could end up moving are Agents of SHIELD and Nashville (if it is renewed). Both shows get mediocre ratings, especially Nashville, and SHIELD is falling. Could SHIELD move to 10:00? Could either show move to Sunday? I think either is very possible.

The Middle and Modern Family don't have many more seasons left in them, they will both be entering season seven this fall. After they end, what comedies will be ABC's dependable veterans? I think that The Muppets and The Goldbergs will take over. The Muppets looks like it will be a hit, and The Goldbergs is going to be in its third season this fall and it has been growing out of its lead-in of The Middle regularly. ABC's comedy future looks a lot better than most networks'.

What did you think of this article? Leave your thoughts in the comments!