Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Line of Fire (0.17)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely Renewal:
The Traitors: New Blood (0.31, 0.28-0.33)
The Voice (0.40)
Certain Renewal:
Dateline NBC
Coming Soon:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Happy's Place
Law & Order: SVU
Law & Order
Newlyweds
The Rockford Files
Saturday Night Live
St. Denis Medical
Sunset PI
Line of Fire: Ratings for episode two aren't here yet, but Line of Fire's premiere ratings tell a story on their own. Its 0.17 debut is a very weak start for a new series, especially given that its lead-in, The Voice, got itself back to respectable territory with a 0.40 rating. While 10 PM is a notoriously difficult time slot, where lower ratings are more acceptable, that 43% retention on premiere night is far from encouraging. It did at least hold up well over the hour, with 0.17/0.16 half-hour datapoints, but there's still obviously a great risk that it will still follow the normal ratings path of a new show and falter a bit in the coming weeks. It has a thirteen-episode order (initially, at least), so there is certainly plenty of time for it to drop. If it does, we could quickly see it quickly finding itself on the same level as Brilliant Minds, which never looked like it had a chance at renewal last season. That show returned to a 0.16 with a 0.36 lead-in from The Voice, meaning it actually had slightly better retention, despite being a touch lower. It eventually dropped to a 0.10, despite being in its second season, so we could certainly see Line of Fire going that low this season. While its streaming ratings still matter more than its linear ratings in today's TV environment, Line of Fire dropping to Brilliant Minds levels certainly won't help strengthen its renewal case, given that NBC pulled Brilliant Minds last season. It's already on pretty thin ice
Speaking of streaming, NBC just reported some delayed ratings for the series, touting that the series debuted to 8.6 million viewers for its first episode across linear airings, DVR, and streaming. We do not know the viewership for the two repeats that aired on Thursday and Friday, but we do know it drew it had 3.2 million viewers on premiere night - a fairly strong viewership total for a show with a paltry 0.17 demo rating. NBC drama repeats drew roughly 1.7-2 million viewers this summer on average, so it's safe to say at least three million of that 8.6 million figure came from repeats. That would mean about 2.5 million watched on DVR and streaming, which isn't quite as impressive as the headline makes it look. A promising sign, though, is that NBC claims the show saw a 47% increase in the 18-49 demo in week two. It has shown signs of improvement recently on the Peacock chart after a quiet start, so it may actually be gaining momentum on streaming. I'll need some actual data to show that this show has real signs of life on streaming before I consider a renewal prediction, but I'm going to be more lenient on it than I expected after its weak debut. It starts as a leans cancellation prediction, and if it does manage to grow as the season goes along, it could see an upgrade.
The Voice: Unlike Line of Fire, The Voice had an impressive debut last week. The series returned up from both its fall 2025 and spring 2026 premieres, rebounding after a disastrous season that saw it drop as low as 0.18. That doesn't mean it'll hold up, and it was obviously in a better time slot (8 PM versus 9 PM), but this is a promising return for a show that has been hemorrhaging viewers in recent seasons. Its 0.40 is also higher than the heavily-promoted broadcast debut of The Traitors, and in line with some of the strongest ratings managed by any NBC series last season. This will be the only standard season of The Voice to air this season, with its spring cycle being replaced by a celebrity edition. While not exactly the same as my suggestion last year to pare the show down to one season a year, it is a sign that NBC knew there was an issue and they're trying their best to fix it. It may not work out, and it probably won't be as effective as giving the series a full year's rest, but NBC is finally giving fans of The Voice a chance to miss it a bit in between seasons. It would be a shock not to see it return on next fall's schedule, especially if this result holds up at all. It starts as a likely renewal, and you could even make an argument it's a certain renewal - surely an improvement from how it looked last season.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | Line of Fire | ||||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | The Traitors: New Blood | Law & Order: SVU | Law & Order | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Newlyweds | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sat | College Football on NBC | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Football | |||||
