ABC Renew/Cancel Week 4: 9-1-1: Nashville Doesn’t Need Rescuing

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, the final premieres of the fall season - their Thursday drama lineup - hit the chart, with initial predictions for long-running hit 9-1-1, Thursday night staple Grey's Anatomy, and sophomore drama 9-1-1: Nashville.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
RJ Decker (0.23, 0.20-0.25)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
Scrubs (0.34, 0.29-0.38)

Likely Renewal:

9-1-1 (0.43, 0.40-0.45)

9-1-1: Nashville (0.33, 0.32-0.33)

Abbott Elementary (0.33, 0.32-0.35)

Grey's Anatomy (0.25, 0.24-0.25)

Shark Tank (0.19, 0.15-0.21)

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? (0.32, 0.20-0.46)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.24, 0.17-0.30)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.30, 0.28-0.33)

Dancing with the Stars (1.43, 1.32-1.56)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.31, 0.30-0.32)

Coming Soon:

High Potential

Shifting Gears

The Rookie

The Rookie: North

Will Trent

Untitled Grey's Anatomy spinoff

9-1-1: Nashville: After some truly awful performances at the end of its first season, I was definitely worried about the long-term future of 9-1-1: Nashville. We saw a Ryan Murphy show (Doctor Odyssey) flame out in the same time slot just a year before, ultimately leading to its cancellation, so clearly being connected to Disney's favorite creator wasn't going to be enough to keep the show on forever. The spring run of Nashville showed a lot of the same worrying signs as Doctor Odyssey, actually having a lower series low than the ill-fated cruise ship procedural despite airing behind the most compatible lead-in ABC could ever give it. Much of that was likely due to 9-1-1 itself weakening pretty dramatically at the end of last season, though we saw Doctor Odyssey retaining it a bit better when it hit those same 0.3 ratings that were leading into sub-0.20 ratings for Nashville.

All of this made it quite the surprise when 9-1-1: Nashville roared back to life when it returned for its second season earlier this month. It returned to a new series high, and in week two - when it would've been understandable to see a ratings drop-off - was down just a single hundredth. You can surely attribute much of that to 9-1-1, as well. 9-1-1 returned with higher ratings than we saw at any point last season, coming in eight hundredths higher than its season nine high, and a tenth and a half above its season nine premiere. So yes, Nashville certainly seems to be reliant on its parent show, but that's to be expected. There was really no guarantee that those tuning into 9-1-1 live for the first time in over a. year would stick around for Nashville, but it's actually slightly improved its retention from last season, which was enough for it to easily get renewed. I do think we could still see it returning to the lows we saw in season one (in fact, I think that's likely), but it's quite promising that it didn't immediately return to those levels. It was on a persistent negative trajectory in season one, and it's turned that around for now. These aren't ratings that'll give ABC much to worry about at this point. 9-1-1: Nashville returns as a likely renewal.

Grey's Anatomy: We're at the point in Grey's Anatomy's run where its live ratings are far from stellar. In fact, its 0.24 average is about a single hundredth above RJ Decker, which is ABC's lowest-rated scripted series. Given its ratings in the latter part of last season, it's likely that it winds up falling behind RJ Decker. It averaged 0.19 overall last season, and actually is up a notch from the average for the first two episodes of last season (0.22). We know that Grey's is not the powerhouse it once was, and that has likely contributed to some of the changes we've seen with it recently, including a cut to thirteen episodes (which will be the first season since its debut that hasn't had what would generally be considered a full season, outside of the strike-shortened year) and some cast departures.

However, that doesn't mean I expect it to end this year. No, quite the contrary. Its linear ratings aren't the most important factor, but they're still fairly decent for a 10 PM series. Only 20/20 has rated higher on ABC at 10 PM this season, and the other networks are rating similarly in the hour. What is important is that it continues to stream well on Hulu, where it consistently ranks among ABC's top performers. It also has a Netflix deal and is a top international performer, which have helped the show get another spinoff. While Grey's has seemingly dropped in priority for ABC based on their scheduling of the show, the spinoff order has shown just how important the show does remain overall. It's clearly very valuable still, and ABC simply won't cancel a show that's still highly profitable for them. It premieres as a likely renewal.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	Monday Night Football
Tues	Dancing with the Stars			R.J. Decker
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	Who Wants To Be a Millionaire	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	Saturday Night Football
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney