New Show Hit/Miss Fall 2017 - NBC Drama

Two new dramas are headed to NBC this fall. They are military drama The Brave, which will air on Mondays at 10:00 after The Voice beginning September 25th, and true-crime drama Law & Order: True Crime, which will air on Tuesdays at 10:00 after This Is Us beginning September 26th. This article will take a look at the two of them and identify why they may or may not succeed.

The Brave

What May Cause The Brave to be a Hit?

Three military dramas are headed to broadcast this fall. Luckily for The Brave, it premieres before the other two. So, people looking for a new military drama have here to look first. Also, the show has a fairly broad concept, which makes it a nice fit after high-rated The Voice. In addition, its competition is another new show (The Good Doctor) and one with just decent ratings (Scorpion).

What May Cause The Brave to be a Miss for NBC?

The two shows that have really worked in this timeslot are The Blacklist and Blindspot. Both are serial-procedural hybrids, with a case of the week and an overarching story. From the looks of it, The Brave appears to be a straight procedural. Also, the show isn't doing so well on social media, with less likes on Facebook than True Crime (19K versus 24K), and a weak number of Twitter followers (892).

Law & Order: True Crime

What May Cause Law & Order: True Crime to be a Hit?

The initial season of Law & Order: True Crime will deal with the Menendez brothers. ABC recently did a special on this case, which earned a 1.7 (airing out of a 1.0). There seems to be interest in the case, with the Law & Order brand name and much bigger lead-in, this show could do even better. Plus, people like true crime anthologies, just look at American Crime Story.

What May Cause Law & Order: True Crime to be a Miss for NBC?

While it has a big lead-in, Law & Order: True Crime is also a total mismatch with it. This Is Us and True Crime seem very dissimilar, so it could end up having terrible retention. In addition to this, NBC doesn't really seem to be putting much effort into appealing to a younger audience with this show, as they haven't even created a Twitter page for it.


What to Expect from NBC's Fall Dramas

With these two dramas being the only new shows coming to NBC this fall, they should both be getting solid amounts of promotion, and with the great ratings that America's Got Talent is getting this summer, that promotion should be leading to significant exposure. Both new shows could succeed, and I personally believe that they will.


What do you expect from The Brave and Law & Order: True Crime? And what factors do you think will contribute most in making them a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

New Show Hit/Miss Fall 2017 - FOX Comedy

FOX only has one new comedy this fall, but I am keeping the title of the article as FOX comedy for consistency's sake, just like I did with ABC comedy. That one new comedy coming to FOX this fall is Ghosted, which will air on Sundays at 8:30 after The Simpsons, premiering on October 1st.

Ghosted

What May Cause Ghosted to be a Hit?

Despite just performing just fairly well on Tuesdays in its better weeks, Brooklyn Nine-Nine consistently did quite well when it aired on Sundays at 8:30. Ghosted feels like Brooklyn Nine-Nine in some ways. The team on Brooklyn Nine-Nine investigates crimes, and the duo on Ghosted will investigate paranormal activity. In addition, both shows are male-led, which made Brooklyn and will likely make Ghosted fit in to the male-skewing Sunday night line-up.

What May Cause Ghosted to be a Miss for FOX?

While Brooklyn Nine-Nine worked in the timeslot, it was established. New shows that FOX has tried in this timeslot recently (Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life, Son of Zorn, Making History) haven't worked. The Simpsons's viewers may not really want to watch a live-action comedy (or hybrid in the case of Son of Zorn) after the show.

In addition, the show isn't doing very well on social media. It has only 4,521 likes on Facebook, much less than FOX's new dramas (who both have over 18 times as many likes). On Twitter, it is also well below the network's new dramas, with only 1,820 followers (less than a fifth of what second-place The Gifted has).


What to Expect from FOX's New Comedy

I feel that Ghosted has a shot, because it feels like something that fits in with FOX's comedies, but I am definitely worried that it doesn't fit in enough between The Simpsons and Family Guy, since it's live-action. Ghosted does not have to worry about the mid-season comedies that FOX has because it is limited, so it wouldn't get a backorder anyway.


What do you expect from Ghosted? And what factors do you think will contribute most in making it a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

New Show Hit/Miss Fall 2017 - FOX Drama

FOX has two new dramas set to air this fall, and this article will take a look at both of them. They are sci-fi comedy-drama The Orville, which will air its first two episodes after NFL games on September 10th and 17th, then air regularly on Thursdays at 9:00 after Gotham beginning on September 21st, and superhero drama The Gifted, which will air on Mondays at 9:00 after Lucifer beginning October 2nd.

The Orville

What May Cause The Orville to be a Hit?

The show comes from (and stars) Seth MacFarlane, who is also behind Family Guy, one of the shows on FOX that is working at the moment (of which there aren't all that many of). In addition to that, FOX is giving that male-skewing audience a chance to be introduced to the show, with the two post-football airings. Its regular lead-in also should be a decent match with it, since Gotham is also a male-skewing show (the most male-skewing non-Sunday show on the network).

The Orville also has some impressive numbers online. The show is doing very well on social media, with 95K Facebook likes and 16K Twitter followers at the time of the writing of this article. That puts it ahead of FOX's other new drama, The Gifted, as well as most of the other new shows from the other networks. On Twitter it only falls behind ABC's Inhumans. In addition to this, the official trailer has more likes than The Gifted and the new shows from all of the other networks except for CBS's Young Sheldon.

What May Cause The Orville to be a Miss for FOX?

While Family Guy works, not all Seth MacFarlane projects do. FOX's most recent attempts with him (Bordertown and Dads) failed. In addition, those two attempts, especially Bordertown, are much closer to the Seth MacFarlane brand. A sci-fi dramedy is fairly different. Will Seth MacFarlane fans embrace it, when they didn't embrace Bordertown or Dads? Also, this show will have to air on Thursday nights, a night that FOX has been struggling to figure out for years now, and Gotham isn't that strong of a lead-in.

The Gifted

What May Cause The Gifted to be a Hit?

The superhero genre is still popular, so this already has a solid chance of working. To add on to that, The Gifted centers on a family, and the success of This Is Us showed us that audiences are interested in a family drama. This seems like the type of show audiences would want.

The official trailer for the show indicates that this is the type of show audiences are interested in. It has 13.8 million views, compared to 3 million for The Orville (and that is no small number of views for The Orville). And while it isn't doing as well as The Orville on social media, its 82K Facebook likes and 9,545 Twitter followers is still strong.

What May Cause The Gifted to be a Miss for FOX?

The CW's ratings this last season may be an indication that people are tiring of superhero TV shows. The network's superhero shows faced larger than usual declines this year, and Supergirl fell quite a bit over the course of its season. The Gifted may be able to find enough interest, but it will have to do so with Lucifer as a lead-in. While Lucifer isn't as bad of a lead-in as Rosewood was for Pitch last season, it still isn't a strong show.


What to Expect from FOX's Fall Dramas

I believe that there is enough interest out there to cause The Gifted to perform well. The Orville I feel is a real wild card. I don't believe that either show has to worry about whether or not they will get a backorder, because as far as I am aware they are both limited series. Over the course of the season, however, they will be competing with fellow new dramas The Resident, 9-1-1, and possibly others if FOX's off-cycle development produces something, for renewal.


What do you expect from The Orville and The Gifted? And what factors do you think will contribute most in making them a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

New Show Hit/Miss Fall 2017 - CBS Comedy

This time on new show hit/miss, we are taking on the three new comedies set to air on CBS this fall. They are Young Sheldon, a single-camera prequel spin-off of The Big Bang Theory, which premieres on Monday, September 25th at 8:30 following the season premiere of The Big Bang Theory, then airs regularly on Thursdays at 8:30 beginning on November 2nd, where it will follow The Big Bang Theory, Me, Myself & I, a single-camera multi-generational comedy which will premiere on Monday, September 25th at 9:30 following Kevin Can Wait, air at 9:30 for five weeks, then move to 9:00, and 9JKL, a multi-camera comedy which premieres on Monday, September 2nd at 8:30 following The Big Bang Theory, which it airs after for four weeks, following which it will air after Kevin Can Wait.

Young Sheldon

What May Cause Young Sheldon to be a Hit?

We'll start with the most obvious: it's a spin-off of The Big Bang Theory, the highest-rated entertainment program on broadcast. And, it's not a spin-off focusing on some obscure character that no one cares about. Instead, it is a prequel focusing on the main character of the show, with narrations from Jim Parsons, who plays present-day Sheldon.

In addition, CBS is giving Young Sheldon a lot of support from its mother show. Not only will it regularly air after The Big Bang Theory, but it gets to premiere after the season premiere of The Big Bang Theory. CBS opted to use what will most likely be their highest-rated scripted original of the season on the premiere of Young Sheldon.

If that wasn't enough, there definitely seems to be interest online. While it would be expected that Young Sheldon would do well in trailer views and social media attention compared to Me, Myself & I and 9JKL due to familiarity, the difference is still impressive. 2.589 million views on its official trailer puts it at around 18 times what the other two shows have, and on Twitter (6,990 followers at the time of writing this article) Young Sheldon has around 12 times as many followers as Me, Myself & I and 16 times as many as 9JKL. The difference is even greater on Facebook, with the 164K likes being over 50 times what the other shows have.

What May Cause Young Sheldon to be a Miss for CBS?

Despite being a spin-off of The Big Bang Theory, Young Sheldon is very different from The Big Bang Theory. The original show is a multi-camera hangout comedy set in the present day. The spin-off is a single-camera family comedy, centering on a child, set in 1989. As someone who has seen scenes from and promos for both shows, I found that the trailer of Young Sheldon felt a lot more like ABC's The Goldbergs than The Big Bang Theory. The shows are dissimilar, which could be a major issue.

While the numbers are high compared to the CBS comedies, Young Sheldon's trailer views and Facebook likes fall being ABC's The Good Doctor. Comparing across networks is certainly not ideal, but I believe that the spin-off of a hugely popular show should have more pre-premiere attention than a completely new show. When I checked The Good Doctor's numbers last week, it had 3.7 million trailer views and 284K Facebook likes. Young Sheldon is at 2.6 million and 164K. That's a big difference. Another poor sign for Young Sheldon is how people responded to the trailer, with only 70% of those who reacted liking it.

Me, Myself & I

What May Cause Me, Myself & I to be a Hit?

Most of CBS's attempts at single-camera comedies have failed. One worked: Life in Pieces. Me, Myself & I has the potential to be the next Life in Pieces, as both are comedies with family elements, but not totally ABC (Life in Pieces's humor tends to be a bit more grown up) and both with things that make their structure unique (four stories presented separately in Life in Pieces, three timelines in Me, Myself & I). If Life in Pieces worked, shouldn't Me, Myself & I?

The show has one more thing going in its favor. The reactions to the official trailer is much more positive than the reactions to the other two new comedies on CBS this fall. 93% of people who reacted to the trailer for Me, Myself & I liked it, compared to 70% for both Young Sheldon and 9JKL.

What May Cause Me, Myself & I to be a Miss for CBS?

Life in Pieces is just one show that worked. Every other off-brand show on CBS failed (We Are Men, The Crazy Ones, Bad Teacher, Angel from Hell). Me, Myself & I succeeding would be going against the trend. Plus, it is fairly high-concept, which generally doesn't work on broadcast television. In addition, it has an incredibly incompatible lead-in during its first few weeks in Kevin Can Wait.

When it comes to trailer views and social media, Me, Myself & I ranks beneath Young Sheldon and all of the CBS dramas (except Wisdom of the Crowd when it comes to trailer views). It has 147K trailer views, 3,276 Facebook likes, and 562 Twitter followers. It's not much higher than 9JKL, and very far from Young Sheldon.

9JKL

What May Cause 9JKL to be a Hit?

The show feels like a typical CBS comedy. Off-brand things have really struggled on the network, with Life in Pieces being the only exception. It's a multi-camera comedy centering on a middle-aged white male. Not only does it fit well on the network in general, but it fits well with what will be its lead-in beyond the first few episodes: Kevin Can Wait. For the first few weeks, 9JKL will get the network's strongest lead-in, The Big Bang Theory. It also won't be going up against any comedies, so it won't have to fight any shows going up against that similar of an audience.

What May Cause 9JKL to be a Miss for CBS?

Trailer views and social media are not promising for the show. At 138K views, it ranks the lowest out of the new comedy trailers, and a very low 70% of people who reacted to the trailer liked it. It also ranks last in Facebook likes (2,798) and Twitter followers (440). There seems to be little interest in the show, and people are not liking what they are seeing.


What to Expect from CBS's Fall Comedies

I am by far the most confident in Young Sheldon here, at least when it comes to season one ratings. I could totally see this fail when moved away from The Big Bang Theory though. If CBS decides to give two of these shows full seasons, I am going with 9JKL as more likely than Me, Myself & I to get a full season. If Me, Myself & I had been paired with Life in Pieces, maybe I would be more optimistic about its chances. CBS will likely be looking to ditch one of these new comedies relatively quickly so they can get Man with a Plan back on the schedule, so don't be surprised if Me, Myself & I doesn't make it to the move to 9:00.


What do you expect from Young Sheldon, Me, Myself & I, and 9JKL? And what factors do you think will contribute most in making them a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

New Show Hit/Miss Fall 2017 - CBS Drama

Welcome back to new show hit/miss. This time, we are taking on the three new dramas set to air on CBS this fall. SEAL Team premieres on Wednesday, September 27th at 9:00 following Survivor, Wisdom of the Crowd premieres on Sunday, October 1st at 8:00 (which will really be more like 8:30 in the Eastern/Central time zones on this and some other weeks when CBS has the late NFL game) following 60 Minutes, and S.W.A.T. premieres on Thursday, November 2nd at 10:00 following Life in Pieces.

SEAL Team

What May Cause SEAL Team to be a Hit?

For years, CBS has used Survivor, one of the network's strongest shows (number two on the network in 2016-17), as a lead-in to Criminal Minds. This year, they moved Minds to 10:00, to allow this show to benefit from that lead-in. Survivor will most likely be the highest-rated lead-in that a CBS drama will get this year, so SEAL Team has the opportunity to benefit from that.

In addition, the show is tracking well on social media. On Facebook, its 61K likes puts it much closer to the 87K for S.W.A.T. than the 12K for Wisdom. On Twitter, SEAL Team actually leads S.W.A.T. (3,728 followers to 3,311 followers). This Twitter lead suggests a potentially younger skew for SEAL (for a CBS drama), which would make it a good fit after Survivor, which is the second youngest-skewing program returning to CBS this fall (behind The Big Bang Theory). The social media presence is strong for a CBS drama, so if that can turn into actual viewers, SEAL Team should perform well.

What May Cause SEAL Team to be a Miss for CBS?

With the Survivor lead-in being used on Criminal Minds for so long, we don't actually know how much of a help it will be. Recently, The Bachelor/ette and Big Brother have proven that they don't really give much of a benefit to their lead-outs, despite high numbers. The audiences for those shows have no interest in watching their respective networks' scripted programming. Survivor's audience could behave similarly, making the show actually an unhelpful lead-in. Without this support, Law & Order: SVU could steal much of SEAL Team's potential audience.

Unlike social media, the official trailer for SEAL Team has some unimpressive statistics. Like with Facebook likes, the show ranks in second place in YouTube views out of the three new CBS dramas, but unlike on Facebook, SEAL's 267K views falls much closer to third-place Wisdom (124K) than first-place S.W.A.T. (852K). While the views are unimpressive, what's even more unimpressive is that 89% of people who reacted to the trailer did so with a like, compared to 91% and 93% from Wisdom and S.W.A.T. respectively.

Wisdom of the Crowd

What May Cause Wisdom of the Crowd to be a Hit?

The concept of a smart, rich guy who develops new technology for catching criminals following the death of someone close to him has been done before. Do you remember APB on FOX, which aired earlier this year? The show ultimately became a flop, but we cannot forget how well it premiered. It started out at a 1.5, even with the 1.5 it got from its lead-in of 24: Legacy. That start, which surprised most, shows that people were interested in the concept.

It's also important to note the differences between APB and Wisdom of the Crowd. Wisdom takes a similar concept, but it airs on CBS, where a procedural is on-brand, unlike on FOX, where the only successful police procedural in recent years was Bones, and it will get a lead-in of football-inflated 60 Minutes for its premiere.

APB showed signs of being very disliked by its audience. It dropped to 1.0 in week two, losing a third of its audience. This kind of drop also indicates that there were probably many people interested in the concept that never tuned in because they didn't think the show looked good, or started the episode, but then stopped watching it. Had it been a better show, it could have potentially premiered higher and sustained a higher percentage of its audience. It shouldn't be harder to be better received by audiences than APB was, and the official trailer for Wisdom was liked by 91% of people who watched it, a solid amount.

What May Cause Wisdom of the Crowd to be a Miss for CBS?


Just because Wisdom of the Crowd should work doesn't mean that it will. People don't seem to be very aware of the show yet, it ranks last place in all of YouTube trailer views (124K), Facebook likes (12K), and Twitter followers (740) out of the three new dramas coming to CBS this fall. These aren't perfect indicators, but still, numbers this low are a bad sign.

Additionally, while the timeslot for the show seems great, it might not actually be. First of all, it will face tough competition when it comes to male viewers, which may be important for this concept, if APB is a proper indication (it skewed male, which is fairly rare). Wisdom will be going up against heavily male-skewing football, as well as the male-skewing FOX comedies. In addition, on nights where CBS doesn't have the late NFL game to boost their line-up, 60 Minutes is a league average level performer in the fall, and below that in the spring. So, on those nights, Wisdom of the Crowd will have a not very compatible lead-in that just gets decent ratings.

S.W.A.T.

What May Cause S.W.A.T. to be a Hit?

The biggest thing that S.W.A.T. has going for it is its lead, Shemar Moore. He is a former cast member of Criminal Minds, and a popular one, as evidenced by how the show ended its most recent season with a 1.6, an episode in which he guest starred, after it had been doing 1.3s for most of the spring. Now it's his chance to carry a show, and the network seems to have faith that he can do it, as they are putting the show in a timeslot where they haven't been so successful recently. This timeslot is not without a positive though, as it will only have to share a promotional push with Young Sheldon, with the other new shows premiering about a month earlier.

So far, there definitely seems to be interest. The official trailer has 852K views, far more than the trailers for CBS's other two new fall dramas. The show is also in first out of the group when it comes to Facebook likes (of which it has 87K) and a close second in Twitter followers (3,311). In addition to this amount of attention, people seem to be liking what they are seeing, with 93% of people who reacted to the official trailer giving it a like, higher than 89% and 91% for SEAL and Wisdom.

What May Cause S.W.A.T. to be a Miss for CBS?

The timeslot really isn't a good one. First of all, there is the timeslot history. Since Elementary's weak run here, Rush Hour, Pure Genius, and Training Day all failed. Second, the lead-in is completely incompatible, with the night going from comedies to a serious drama. Third, the competition could hurt it, with the procedural audience choosing Chicago Fire (or the male audience choosing Thursday Night Football during the weeks where NBC has that instead), and African-American audience members choosing Viola Davis in How to Get Away with Murder over Shemar Moore.


What to Expect from CBS's Fall Dramas

With returning dramas Code Black and Elementary, new drama Instinct, and unscripted shows The Amazing Race and Undercover Boss looking for one-hour timeslots it would seem that CBS will have to cut at least one of these new dramas early. However, that may not be the case. In 2014, CBS gave three of their four new dramas full seasons (and all three of Scorpion, NCIS: New Orleans, and Madam Secretary are still airing), and the fourth one a partial backorder, despite the fact that Madam and Stalker had mediocre ratings. Then, in 2015, they did something similar with Supergirl, Limitless, and Code Black.

CBS shows a willingness to let new dramas that aren't flops have time to prove themselves. I feel fairly good about all three of these dramas, so CBS may let them all air full seasons if they perform at least decently. It's a good thing the network is skilled at somehow managing to squeeze mid-season shows into the schedule.


What do you expect from SEAL Team, Wisdom of the Crowd, and S.W.A.T? And what factors do you think will contribute most in making them a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!