It's been a busy week in the world of summer TV, with several new series debuting, as well as time slot changes and several shows hitting season highs. Keep reading for initial predictions for three series, plus an update on another.
Certain to be Canceled:
N/A
Likely to be Canceled:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Bear Grylls is Running Wild (Fox) (0.12, 0.08-0.18)
Leans Renewal:
Dancing with the Stars: The Next Pro (ABC) (0.43)
Press Your Luck (ABC) (0.24, 0.22-0.25)
Farmer Wants a Wife (Fox) (0.14, 0.13-0.16)
Likely to be Renewed:
The 1% Club (Fox) (0.20, 0.13-0.26)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC) (0.18, 0.17-0.19)
Big Brother: Unlocked (CBS) (0.40)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC) (0.30, 0.29-0.31)
Nation's Dumbest (Fox) (0.27)
Password (NBC) (0.22, 0.16-0.29)
The Quiz with Balls (Fox) (0.18, 0.13-0.25)
Certain to be Renewed:
America's Got Talent (NBC) (0.37, 0.30-0.50)
Big Brother (CBS) (0.70, 0.57-0.86)
Fate Determined:
Brilliant Minds (Canceled)
The Floor (Fox) (Renewed)
MasterChef (Fox) (Renewed)
Surviving Earth (NBC) (Miniseries)
Yet to Premiere:
Beat Shazam (Fox)
Kitchen Nightmares (Fox)
The Wall (NBC)
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (ABC)
Nation's Dumbest: Last week, Nation's Dumbest debuted as a mid-summer replacement series behind MasterChef. It's one of very few new summer debuts this season, but so far, it doesn't look likely that this will be its only season. Its 0.27 premiere is higher than most of Fox's shows from the regular season, with only three scripted series (all boosted by football lead-ins) and three reality series matching or exceeding that rating. It's very likely that it cools off a bit from here, especially given that MasterChef itself hit a season high, likely thanks to World Cup exposure. But it doesn't need to stay this high to be a successful show. The Floor didn't even perform this well in this time slot in spring and early summer, and that's a well-established, successful program. Fox renewed multiple shows that averaged weak 0.2s, with some of them returning on the fall schedule next season. I expect Nation's Dumbest would need to totally collapse to levels even lower than that to find itself in much danger this season.
In addition to its strong raw ratings and strong retention of MasterChef (93%, roughly the same last last year's post-MasterChef Gordan Ramsay series, Secret Service), Nation's Dumbest has done solidly on Hulu, performing in line with some of Fox's best-performing reality series. It's performing much better than game shows The 1% Club and The Quiz with Balls, and peaked within the top five on their daily top 15 chart in its opening week. It's too early for me to say it's certainly safe, but this is a very encouraging start. It's a likely renewal.
Dancing with the Stars: The Next Pro: It's nowhere near the hit that its parent series is, but that was never the expectation here. Dancing with the Stars: The Next Pro debuted last week with a strong 0.43, the third-highest premiere of the season. It's a strong enough rating to rank it second for the season, only trailing Big Brother, which is pretty much the undisputed king of summer TV. Based on raw ratings alone, this would be a slam dunk, but the ratings for this one show aren't the only thing to consider here.
A 0.4 in the summer is a massive success, and it seems to be on its way towards ranking #1 among ABC's sparse summer lineup. However, I do have some doubts about just how often they can actually air The Next Pro. Dancing with the Stars seasons have a semi-fixed number of contestants each year, ranging from thirteen to sixteen in the last five seasons. Most of the show's professional dancers return each year, with few spots actually opening up. Obviously, the show itself can ensure there's an open spot in the pro roster each year, but I'm not sure just how sustainable that is. The show's started well enough that ABC has every incentive to make sure it's back next summer, but if it cools off, it may not be entirely worth the effort. I'd also expect that ABC and the show's producers will want the show's winner to be well-received by fans of DWTS in order to truly deem this experiment a success. They certainly won't want to do anything that could jeopardize their most important show. It leans renewal to start.
American Ninja Warrior: This week, NBC moved American Ninja Warrior from its originally-scheduled 9 PM time slot to a more favorable 8 PM slot, where it aired for more than a decade. It's a switch that was necessitated by the show's truly disappointing ratings this season, averaging just a 0.18 in the key demo. It was arguably a poor strategic move to have ever moved the show to 9 PM simply in favor of repeats, but NBC was trying to give their comedies some additional exposure. It didn't work out well for their long-running reality series, and they made a mid-season change. That they made that change at all is both a good and bad sign for ANW. It's obviously embarrassing that a long-running veteran failed so deeply to hold its own in a new time slow that NBC felt the need to shift its time slot. However, NBC caring enough about the show to shift their Monday schedule - which included bringing The Wall back early - just to save it indicates that they do, indeed, care as much about it as I thought they did. Even with meager ratings this season, they're not just going to let go of it so easily. It's still a likely renewal.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
