The Trends Part 2: Massive Time Slot Upgrades to Newer Comedies (REVISED)

UPDATE: This article has been revised to reflect Superstore's return to Thursday at 8pm instead of airing after The Voice.

Welcome to The Trends! In this segment, I discuss some of the trends that we saw in the madness that was early-to-mid-May 2017. This second segment focuses on giving returning comedies massive time slot upgrades.

Many times, when networks see a lot of untapped potential in a show, they move it to a better time slot and hope the show improves. It worked yesteryear with Seinfeld, it worked a couple years ago with The Goldbergs, and next fall there are three comedies getting the same treatment, and the second seasons of American Housewife on ABC and Great News on NBC.

Back when it was a pilot named The Second Fattest Housewife in Westport, American Housewife is the show that I thought was going to be scheduled behind Modern Family due to Blackish moving to Tuesday. I was wrong. In fact, The Middle moved to Tuesday to launch American Housewife while Blackish stayed put. This year is different; Blackish is now airing Tuesday at 9pm, and to pretty much everyone's surprise, American Housewife got the post-Modern Family time slot. This mostly shows that ABC wasn't too into their family comedy pilots, given none of them even made the fall schedule. Since Blackish is now about to get to syndication, ABC seems to be protecting fellow ABC Studios comedy American Housewife now. With Modern Family renewed for a ninth and tenth season, American Housewife can really be nurtured if ABC wants to go that route. While it did well in its first season, getting great retention out of The Middle, is wasn't a show that screamed 8 seasons and anchor material. ABC is attempting to change that by putting new life into the show; in fact, it's entirely possible that it ends up being Modern Family's heir. That being said, we have to remember that they once moved Suburgatory behind Modern Family in its second season and it didn't improve, so maybe the same will happen here. Either way, it's great that they're trying to make it their next big hit.

It's an interesting trend overall; in the 2014-15 season, we saw The Goldbergs, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, and Mom get massive time slot upgrades, all so-so rated freshmen shows which are now about to enter their fifth season as a result. There was nothing of that type in the two seasons to follow, and now we're seeing it happen again. The difference is while many saw the potential The Goldbergs would have if aired between The Middle and Modern Family, the Internet was blindsided by American Housewife moving behind Modern Family, and Great News even getting renewed.

It is also notable that the big time slot upgrades are going to comedies. Like we saw this season, moving a drama past its freshmen season to a better time slot may not always work out like one would hope (see: Quantico). Comedies are much easier to grow if given better time slots and a big promotional push, and it's quite possible that more than one of these shows will be alive and well in 2020. It reinforces the notion that comedies have a lot of value to advertisers and can be long-term investments, even if they don't live up to their full potential right out of the gate.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments below! 

The Trends Part 5: High Profile Revivals

Every year, networks either revive old TV shows and turn movies into TV shows. This season is no different except for the caliber of the revivals. This season, NBC is bringing back Will & Grace, The CW is bringing back Dynasty, and ABC is bringing back both American Idol and Roseanne. These are four of the most successful shows in television. Let's take a look at these revivals and what they may mean for broadcast television both now and in the coming years.

NBC has already started advertising the return of Will & Grace, a show that aired in the 90s and early 2000s as part of their "Must See TV" Thursday night lineup. While the show's ratings were not the same after it lost its Friends lead-in, it is still a widely-loved sitcom that will likely have the power to bring in both new and some old viewers in its return this fall. It should be noted that NBC hasn't revived a comedy in recent years, and the only comedy they've aired in the post-Office years with a familiar name was the short-lived About a Boy. Last season, NBC trusted Superstore to start off Thursday nights, and while it didn't do terrible, there was clearly room for improvement. At this point, if NBC were to ask a comedy to start off Thursdays, a revival would be necessary. Time will tell if this Will & Grace revival will last, but even by bringing it back for a short season should be enough to put some new life into their Thursday nights.

On a similar note, ABC, the network who has held back the most on revivals and adaptations, is brining back hit sitcom Roseanne. About a working class family, Roseanne spent its first six seasons as a top four show on all of television, and even tied for #1 once. The show was so popular that 20 years after its final season, it's still airing in syndication. The question here is if viewers are willing to accept more new episodes of Roseanne, and even more importantly where it fits in on the schedule now that there is no multi-cam comedy block. Its most compatible partner would be The Middle. Assuming it airs in-season, this will be the first time ABC has revived a sitcom that aired in-season since before the beginning of the era that brought in Modern Family and The Middle, as far as I can tell. It seems that an eye should be kept on ABC to see if they continue this trend of reviving shows, as they rarely did it before these last few seasons. There also hasn't been word on what happens if Roseanne does well; does it make the fall schedule? Is that bad news for another comedy airing on ABC's schedule?

A third high-profile revival is Dynasty on The CW. Although it kind of faltered towards the end of its run, it spent four seasons in the top 5 shows and spent one season at #1--kind of like Roseanne. Also, when it did a two-episode reunion, its ratings were higher than they had been in the final two seasons. It's hard to expect this to stay a top 10 or 20 show given it will be airing on The CW, but chances are the version that will air in the fall will still pull in solid numbers for the network. The other show The CW has revived in recent years was The Flash, and that has done some record-breaking numbers for it that is even competitive with many shows on the Big 4 networks. The one problem could be that The CW's audience and Dynasty's audience may not seem to be a perfect match, but if promoted enough viewers will probably make their way to see their favorite show 30 years later.

While all of these revivals are high-profile, there is none quite as big as American Idol. American Idol had a whole farewell season in 2015, when in reality it would only take one season off before ABC decided to bring it back (yes, ABC, not FOX). The show has already been the center of attention in the media; most notably Katy Perry's $25 million contract and how that is reportedly almost 2/3rds of the talent budget. ABC reportedly plans on airing 40 hours on the once-monster-hit singing competition, which means it will have to do some shuffling on its schedule to accommodate it. If it flops, ABC may have a huge problem on their hands. If it hits, though, ABC will have a huge success. It's a high risk, and ones that networks seemingly don't take all that often out of fear of its costing them too much money. Some say it's too soon for American Idol to return since the nostalgia factor is not there; others say there were still a lot of people watching the show when it finished its final season, and therefore is an audience there for the revival. Regardless of who is right, the return of American Idol will most likely be the biggest ratings story of the season.

What do you think about this trend? Let me know in the comments below!

The Trends Part 4: Six Seasons and No Movie

Welcome to The Trends! This installment takes on the trend of canceling shows that were six seasons deep but not owned by the network. If you've missed the previous articles, they can be found by clicking on the titles below:

The Trends Part 1: Renewing More Low-Rated Shows
The Trends Part 2: Massive Time Slot Upgrades to Newer Comedies
The Trends Part 3: Less Reliance On The Super-Creator

Considering that most of the shows on broadcast TV these days get very similar ratings, it should not be surprising to see a slightly lower-rated show get renewed over a higher-rated show for multiple factors. These include the age and ownership of the show, both of which play a role in the show's profit. The past NBC sitcom Community, which to say the least was never a ratings hit, coined the "Six Seasons and a Movie" term, and as the show kept getting renewed, fans started joking that Community could somehow make it that far without ever really being a hit. Unfortunately, six seasons and no movie was the final fate of the show, assuming they don't somehow convince a movie studio to do a feature film. Turns out, Community wouldn't be the only show to suffer from six seasons and no movie; the fate also recently came to 2 Broke Girls and Last Man Standing.

For several years, ABC has tried to fix their Tuesday at 8pm time slot by airing one of their buzziest new shows there. Last Man Standing was one of them, and it didn't work out. While it premiered well, ratings sunk to levels that would not be acceptable given the landscape of ratings then. Regardless, ABC renewed it and saw an opening on Friday, where audiences could accept the Tim Allen-starring multi-cam. Of course, it naturally took a big drop in its second season, but those ratings looked acceptable for a Friday night. It more or less steadied off after that, and while it was often unsuccessful of launching whatever show ABC tried to air after it, it was still a stronger show each season. If it was renewed for a seventh season and did a similar ratings trajectory, it may even have ended up averaging higher than the Big 4 league average, something that very few Friday shows can accomplish.

However, each year Tim Allen's high salary put the show on the bubble. For all the credit it has been given, it's still a multi-cam sitcom airing on a Friday night with below-average ratings, and Tim Allen's salary far exceeded the typical salary for that kind of show. For the longest time though, ABC kept renewing the show and kept placing a different show at 8:30pm. Going into the 2016-17 season, they finally found the perfect fit with Dr. Ken. However, at the end of the season, Dr. Ken was down over 20% from its first season, while the contracts on Last Man Standing had expired. Many expected for this to be worked out because Sony would have worked magic to get Dr. Ken to syndication, and that ABC would renew the two shows because they still did way better in the ratings than The Toy Box, which replaced them in April. Instead, Last Man Standing became more expensive than ABC would have liked, and Dr. Ken was canceled alongside it. In the fall, Once Upon a Time is scheduled to air there, which despite having a much better time slot than Last Man Standing, very rarely, if ever, rated higher than that week's episode of Last Man Standing. This is a classic example of how as much as we talk about ratings, profits are what really matter. While a lot of times ratings are a very strong indicator of a show's profits, that certainly was not the case here.

2 Broke Girls, while another show fitting the six seasons and no movie mold, had the writing on the wall much before the show was canceled. The first negative sign for it was how they not only picked up Superior Donuts off-cycle, but also moved 2 Broke Girls to 9:30pm, not allowing it to launch the show. If a show is in its sixth season and isn't trusted to launch and/or support a show, the people working on the show better hope that it's making the network a ton of money in syndication or via streaming. Since CBS did not own 2 Broke Girls, it wasn't making money off of it in either of these ways. The second kiss of death was the fact that Superior Donuts really did no worse than 2 Broke Girls, the former of which CBS owns and is almost certainly less expensive. And while CBS typically does a mass renewal and then holds off another couple for May, the fact that 2 Broke Girls was omitted from the mass renewal that contained not only Superior Donuts, but also Man with a Plan and Life in Pieces, was a bad sign. Simply put, CBS ran out of room for a show that's more expensive than the others that are owned and doing similar ratings. Had they owned it, it probably would have gotten a seventh season. Supposedly it is very lucrative for Warner Brothers in syndication, but that's irrelevant to CBS.

Networks almost always favor the shows they own versus the ones they don't. It should be noted that Once Upon a Time, also in its sixth season but lower-rated, is an in-house production. With their cast contracts expiring, they showed no mercy towards Last Man Standing and 2 Broke Girls. They were both good syndication players and were solidly-rated, but from a monetary standpoint the fact that the networks didn't own them made that irrelevant. There has been a lot of public fan outcry, but we've simply moved away from a time where ratings and profits were 100% correlated.

What do you think? Leave your comments below!

The Trends Part 3: Less Reliance On The Super-Creator (UPDATED)

Welcome to The Trends! In this season, I talk about the general trends we saw come out of upfronts. If you missed the first two articles, they are found here:
Part 1: Renewing More Low-Rated Shows
Part 2: Massive Time Slot Upgrades to Newer Comedies

Every network has one or two super-creators. For example, ABC has Shonda Rhimes, who has given them Grey's Anatomy, Private Practice, Scandal, How to Get Away with Murder, and The Catch. Her shows used to be automatic pick-ups, and although she is still a super-creator, her popularity isn't what it was even a year ago. While President Channing Dungey mentioned she'd take what Shonda would give her, the second season of The Catch did even worse than the first, and got canceled. Her newest entry, Still Star-Crossed, is going to air over the summer and doesn't have a ton of promotion. While it is airing after The Bachelorette, that far from means automatic hit. She does have two shows on next season's schedule; upcoming law drama For The People, as well as a Chicago Fire-like Grey's Anatomy spinoff. If those shows don't do well, with Scandal ending and How to Get Away with Murder declining, Shonda Rhimes soon may not have the presence she once did. Of course, Grey's Anatomy is still going strong.

While Shonda Rhimes is ABC's only super-creator, they were very close to having two more in Goldbergs creator Adam Goldberg and Blackish creator Kenya Barris. Goldberg gave ABC their midseason comedy entry Imaginary Mary, which was fractional throughout its run and promptly got canceled. He also had in development a Goldbergs spin-off named Schooled, which was to take place in the 90s starring a tertiary character. It wasn't ordered, and Adam Goldberg will have to stay content with The Goldbergs, when he could have had three shows on the air. Kenya Barris had an even worse last couple weeks. His drama pilot Unit Zero was officially passed on, and prized possession Blackish will air on Tuesday now instead of the comfy post-Modern Family time slot that it's known for its three years on the air. Furthermore, while some considered political comedy Libby & Malcolm to be a frontrunner of the pilot season, ultimately it wasn't ordered to series. With both of those passed on, it seemed like the Blackish spin-off would receive a series order. While it did, the backdoor pilot wasn't overly well-received, and the show will air on Freeform where it will almost certainly see much lower ratings.

The above is a key art for Dick Wolf's newest Chicago series, Chicago Justice. He's been cranking out a new show every season, with Justice being the fourth show in the franchise. While its ratings were nothing to brag about on Sundays, they also seemingly weren't terrible. Regardless, it is in a unique situation where a week after NBC released their fall schedule, and it was just recently canceled. Meanwhile, four post-Voice occupants--dramas Taken and Timeless as well as comedies Trial & Error and Great News--have been renewed with lower ratings. Deadline mentioned that Chicago Fire and PD haven't sold into syndication, which has gotten NBC to rethink the whole Chicago plan and maybe downsize. Even breakout freshmen hit Chicago Med, which fizzled out in its move to Thursday but still did better than those post-Voice shows, did not make the fall schedule. Furthermore, Dick Wolf was planning on making a reality show called Law & Order: You the Jury, but between both the existence and failure of FOX's series You the Jury, the consensus is that it probably won't ever make it to air. Wolf can take solace in the fact that his anthology series Law & Order: True Crime will be airing after This is Us, though the shows do not seem to be thematically compatible and it isn't an automatic success. While Dick Wolf is doing better than the days where NBC canceled both Law & Order and new spin-off Law & Order: LA, it seems that a Chicago show is no longer an automatic renewal. It also shows that four shows of one franchise on the air at the same time may be too much, and Dick Wolf fans would rather see Law & Order take on the theme of law than a Chicago show.

Over on FOX, they were very close to having a comedy super-creator with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, who became famous for directing The Lego Movie. With their first FOX show, The Last Man On Earth, becoming a breakout hit in spring 2015, FOX gave the green light to two more of their shows: half-animated, half-live action comedy Son of Zorn, which aired in that highly-coveted Sunday at 8:30 fall time slot; and time traveling comedy Making History. Most of Son of Zorn's run was masked by boosts from football overrun, but without it the show went lower than any other FOX comedy. Making History, meanwhile, premiered low and went lower. FOX rightfully canceled both shows, with The Last Man On Earth hanging in there for a 4th season, though it's no longer a breakout hit. At this point, if we're looking at super-creators at FOX, we should look at the slight resurgence of Seth MacFarlane. He recently lost both The Cleveland Show and American Dad (moved to TBS), and Bordertown was also abruptly canceled after just 13 episodes. With hour-long drama Orville on the fall schedule, MacFarlane will go back to having more than one show on the air. Lee Daniels is another one to watch; while Empire has fallen tremendously, it's still one of the biggest hits on television, and next season they will air the second season of his other music drama, Star, right after it to make up their Wednesday nights.

So to recap, Shonda Rhimes lost The Catch, Adam Goldberg and Kenya Barris didn't exactly have the pilot season they may have wanted, Dick Wolf went from four to two Chicago shows on the schedule, and Lord/Miller went from three and back to one. But Great News carries on. Great News, which comes from Tina Fey, recently hit a 0.7 A18-49 Live + Same Day demo airing directly after The Voice. Like fellow Fey products 30 Rock and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, as well as fellow NBC comedy Superstore, Great News may have a solid streaming fanbase. Or NBC could be in love with Tina Fey and/or really, really hated The Sackett Sisters. Next season, it will air between Will & Grace and This is Us, anticipated to be a time slot that is the best NBC could offer a show in years. The story of Great News is so unprecedented that it has made it into all three installments of The Trends so far. It seems that NBC did not want to keep Tina Fey off the schedule, and gave Great News the treatment not given to The Catch, Libby & Malcolm, Chicago Justice, Son of Zorn, etc. Also, there is Greg Berlanti, who has given The CW Arrow, The Flash, Supergirl, Legends of Tomorrow, Riverdale, and the upcoming Black Lightning. He also has Blindspot still kicking at NBC despite the ratings not being what they used to be. Berlanti's shows make up half of The CW's fall schedule, and it doesn't seem like he'll stop any time soon.While his production company had some shows pitched to other networks that weren't ordered to series, he's still right up there with the ranks of Shonda, Wolf, and co.

What do you think of all this? Let me know in the comments below!

The Trends Part 1: Renewing More Low-Rated Shows

Welcome to The Trends! In this segment, I discuss some of the trends that we saw in the madness that was early-to-mid-May 2017. This first segment focuses on the renewals of more low-rated shows.

I've long said that almost all shows have at least one legitimate argument for why it should be renewed, but usually when it's canceled it's because there was more going against it. All the shows I'm about to discuss had only one blatant factors that could have led to them turning a profit. Interestingly, most of these shows are receiving time slot downgrades next season; of course, with one large exception.

One of the more notable low-rated renewals was Quantico on ABC. The drama showed a ton of promise at the beginning of its run in fall 2015, growing consistently out of terrible lead-ins in the historically-troubled Sunday at 10pm time slot. However, in the spring of last season the ratings got a little rougher, and things didn't get much better in the fall. Due to alleged international sales, ratings potential, and the fact that ABC loves star Priyanka Chopra, it got moved behind The Bachelor on Mondays in the winter. Somehow, nothing has gotten better, and after a tiny initial uptick, Quantico is now getting consistent 0.6s, often 0.5s in the 10:30pm half-hour. At 55% of the Big 4 league average, the show is a downright flop in Live + Same Day ratings, and its previous DVR strength has dwindled massively as well. Despite this, it still scored a last-second renewal for a third season. While the ratings we see would make anyone question reality, the show must be turning a profit or else it wouldn't still be around. We're living in a new era where ratings and profits aren't 100% correlated.

In fact, there was a lot of speculation all season as to how many, if any, ABC would renew of Once Upon a Time, Marvel's Agents of SHIELD, and Quantico. Promotion for Once Upon a Time seemed to scream series finale towards the end, SHIELD isn't at all what it used to be and isn't often promoted, and then there's Quantico (see above). There was talk about ABC potentially cleaning house now so they can focus on finding new shows to replace the higher-rated old shows (see: Modern Family, The Middle, Scandal). All three shows ended up renewed. Maybe ABC didn't like their development too much, or maybe they simply believe all three will turn enough of a profit next season. It's definitely noteworthy that only one, Once Upon a Time, is on the fall schedule, and that it's been moved to Friday.

Similarly to the ABC drama trifecta, as I like to call it, there's the FOX comedy trifecta: New Girl, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, and The Last Man On Earth. If you've kept up with my FOX Renew/Cancel posts, you'd see that all three shows, while somewhat low-rated, had something going for them. New Girl still does decently amongst younger viewers, has a syndication deal, and is produced in house; Brooklyn Nine-Nine has a syndication deal for five seasons (though it didn't specify that all had to be on FOX); and The Last Man On Earth was the highest-rated Lord Miller Productions shows. In the end, I predicted a renewal for all three shows, and all three shows were renewed. New Girl is on the bench for a shortened final season. which means it can be held back for if a show fails, or if any other veteran has a short order. With more shows having things going for it, FOX has found a way to fit all on the schedule to make a little bit more money without having to take up a time slot for the entire season.

Another notable low-rated renewal is Elementary on CBS. While the show initially did decently on Thursdays back in the day, it saw no notable post-Super Bowl boost. Regardless of ratings that didn't make it a massive hit, it made headlines for its syndication deal: WGN paid $3 million per episode to syndicate the show. That's something that would keep pretty much anything in the profit zone. The show didn't exactly do great in syndication; in fact, it's hardly aired on WGN at all. Even so, they are still paying that hefty fee to keep the show profitable despite really low ratings. Like Quantico, Elementary has been kept back for midseason. Maybe they even try it out on Saturdays.

In general, there were seemingly more bubble veterans renewed than in the past. However, there was also an unusual amount of new shows renewed that seemed 99% dead: three shows, to be exact. All of which were on NBC, and all of which aired after The Voice. I'm talking, of course, about Timeless, Taken, and Great News (Trial & Error's fate is still up in the air as of May 17). Timeless received the coveted Mondays at 10pm time slot after The Voice in the fall and didn't do all that well. In fact, when it aired after The Celebrity Apprentice in the winter, it went as low as a 0.6 rating in A18-49 Live + Same Day. It had stellar DVR numbers, but it wasn't owned by NBC, and thus got canceled. Of course, two days later is was un-canceled by the same network, something that obviously happens to every show. The second season is for 10 episodes and it is unclear when it will air, but regardless, NBC is giving it another chance. It will be interesting to see how it does given that it will almost certainly have a downgraded situation. Taken is in a somewhat similar situation. While it is produced by NBC and does about the same as Timeless did after a lower-rated spring cycle of The Voice, its DVR numbers aren't as great as Timeless' were. Regardless, it scored a second season renewal and now will air Fridays at 9 after Blindspot. There's a solid chance NBC could stick with the show as they try to redo Fridays, but Timeless could realistically land their midseason.

The renewal that shocks me the most is NBC's comedy Great News. The Tina Fey-produced freshmen comedy has hit 0.7s airing directly after The Voice and doesn't have good delayed-viewing numbers or critical acclaim. I assume that there is more to this renewal than Tina Fey, which most likely means a lot of streaming views. After all, supposedly Superstore is a big streaming player. What's the most surprising about this renewal is its time slot: Thursday at 8:30. That's no longer the show that airs after decently-rated Superstore, it's the show that airs between Will & Grace and This is Us. Assuming that Will & Grace returns well (there's a lot of hype surrounding it), and This is Us doesn't completely collapse, Great News one of the best situations on broadcast television next season. If it doesn't double or even triple these ratings, it will probably be the weak link of the night by a lot. It it fails right out of the gate, I could see it being quickly replaced by a midseason comedy or even Trial & Error (if renewed). But the important lesson of this story is that networks--specifically NBC--are seeing potential in these low-rated shows and want to see their ratings improve. Remember, some of the highest-rated shows today had relatively weak first seasons. It's something to look out for as television enters the 2017-18 season.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments below!