The Future of the Night: ABC Tuesday

Welcome to a segment I call "The Future of the Night". The format is I take a look at a night on the network's schedule, see what could use improvement, and come up with scenarios which could potentially solve it. First, I present a short argument as to why it could work, then play Devil's Advocate with my reasoning, and then present the bottom line. Enjoy, and fee free to leave your opinions by leaving a comment!
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Tuesday is arguably ABC's worst night. It starts off with Fresh Off Th eBoat, a marginal player that is way below the ratings of its Wednesday siblings, yet is still the highest-rated show of the night. The Real O'Neals is barely struggling to not go fractional, Marvel's Agents of SHIELD has gone fractional, and nothing can EVER break a 1.0 demo rating at 10pm. ABC has a real problem on the night, and several ways to potentially fix it.

Option 1: Grow Fresh Off The Boat, Push SHIELD to 10pm
Why It Will Work: SHIELD and its low ratings are probably on their way out anyways, so why not just push it to 10pm and let it take the hit instead of a new show? Also, FOTB getting renewed probably means ABC has plans for it other than leading off the night with low 1s. Shifting it to 8:30 and moving a Wednesday comedy to 8pm could create a strong(er) Tuesday hour. Stay tuned for tomorrow's edition, where there will be a more complete analysis on the pros and cons of moving each comedy (if any).

Why It Won't: Disney owns both ABC and Marvel; will they really allow one of their shows to be shifted to the 10pm death slot? Also, a Wednesday comedy could crumble on Tuesday, leaving nothing for FOTB to gain and a lost Wednesday dynamic.

Bottom Line: This is probably the most plausible option for ABC, making necessary changes while also opening up a spot at 9pm for a new show. It's a safe choice, but not the safest.

Option 2: Stay Steady
Why It Will Work: Statistically, half of the network's shows have to be below average. Not every night has to include high-rated comedies or be called TGIT. Leave Tuesday alone for now (including Beyond the Tank at 10pm) and work out Sunday and Monday first.

Why It Won't: Really? Does ABC really want Fractional Tuesday? I don't think so, and advertisers don't as well. Something has to be done, whether that's a complete overhaul or just an improvement in one hour.

Bottom Line: ABC is known for stability, but this is one night where stability may not be the best option. The safest? Yes. But not the best.

Option 3: New Drama(s)
Why It Will Work: Once again, if you schedule a show that intrigue people and promote it right, viewers will at the very least sample it. We saw that with The Muppets. But just because Tuesday hasn't had success as of late doesn't mean they never will. Put one or two promising drama pilots on Tuesdays, and chances are at least one will stick.

Why It Won't: Marvel's Agents of SHIELD is not a good lead-in for a drama. The other options aren't the greatest either; a comedy isn't bound to help a drama all that much, and the last thing you want is to make a promising pilot self-start and crumble. Also, ABC tried this strategy with Sunday this season, and one of them was DOA.

Bottom Line: Whatever happens, ABC should try to do some shifting on Tuesday. Maybe two new dramas back-to-back isn't the best, but it will at least be a chance to get something working.

Option 4: Move a Veteran Drama
Why It Will Work: Of all the dramas ABC has tried on Tuesday in the past 4 seasons, only 1 has been renewed. Time to try a show with a solid following instead of throwing another newbie to the wolves.

Why It Won't: What veteran is strong enough to move to Tuesday, but not strong enough to be more needed somewhere else?

Bottom Line: The drama that comes to mind here is How to Get Away with Murder. It's strong enough as to that it'll improve the time slot, but not strong enough that Thursday is guaranteed to crumble without it. Still a big risk though.

What do you think? Are there any other somewhat-plausible options that I didn't cover? Let me know in the comments below!

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Midseason Preview

ABC

For those of you unfamiliar with my ad rate-based metrics, I have calculated the approximate demo number at which the network values each midseason entry, based on its ad rate and last season's average. ABC's ad rate this season increased 3-4%, so I predict the numbers could be off by about
that much. Here they are:

Galavant: 1.44

The Family: 1.27

The Real O'Neals: 1.03

Marvel's Agent Carter: 1.72

The Catch: 2.14

Secrets & Lies: 1.30

Uncle Buck: 0.96

Unfortunately I couldn't find data for American Crime or Of Kings and Prophets. 

It's simple: if the actual demo number is larger than this average, it will be renewed as ABC will see a chance to raise its ad rate and make more ad revenue off the show. If it goes significantly below the number above, ABC will have to lower the ad rate in order for another season to appeal to advertisers, meaning that the show may be more in limbo. The exception would be The Catch, which could easily squeak out a renewal if it goes a little lower than the number above due to the fact that it is so high. Now, for my prediction on these shows. Keep a close watch especially on the freshmen dramas, as they may affect renewal prospects for Castle and Nashville. I'm not putting anything as Certain to be Renewed or Certain to be Canceled, as that kind of assumption really can't be made ahead of time. There's also a possibility that there will be some renegotiating on Secrets & Lies if possible, depending on if it airs in the summer or not.

Likely to be Cancelled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed
Uncle Buck	The Real O’Neals	The Catch
	The Family	Marvel’s Agent Carter
	Galavant	Secrets & Lies

Showdown: The Real O'Neals vs Fresh Off The Boat

	The Real O’Neals	Fresh Off The Boat
Nature	Single-Cam (Tuesday)	Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)	N/A	1.51
Ad Rate	$80,690	$122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics)	1.03	1.56
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	N/A	1.2-1.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	1.51 (but has settled around 1.1-1.2)	N?A
% Decline Year-to-Year	N/A	16%
Syndication	N/A	N/A
Seasons	0.5	1.5
Production Company	ABC Studios	20th Century Fox
Extraneous Factors	Protests from various sources against the content and EP Dan Savage	First Asian-American led show on broadcast in 25 years; does well in that demo

Even though its average is a 1.51, Fresh Off The Boat simply isn't living up to its ad rate as of late. The switch back to 8pm come Daylight Savings Time will make keeping up even harder. Not to mention that The Real O'Neals is in-house produced. Protest all you want, but only low ratings will make the show go away. If both settle in the low 1s, it will be a tough decision to see if either will be renewed, as ABC already has five certain renewals when it comes to comedy, one more (Last Man Standing), and a seventh (The Muppets) that may be saved as a bridge show for the fact that they're The Muppets. ABC is really thriving in comedy right now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see both cancelled. ABC will probably be happy with The Real O'Neals if it can settle at a 1.0-1.2, given that's what they bargained for when setting the ad rate. However, that won't be enough to get it renewed based on league average declines unless they have plans to switch it to the post-Modern Family time slot, an unlikely proposition. However, if it settles in at least the mid 1s, ABC will see a chance to capitalize, thus raising the ad rate and making more money off the show. That's something that almost certainly cannot be said about the declining Fresh Off The Boat.

Edge: The Real O'Neals

Showdown: Galavant vs The Muppets

I just can't see a scenario where The Muppets come back in the fall. Any other show and the show would be an easy cancellation. But ABC may see a chance to cut their losses a little bit (which actually isn't as much as many people have thought based on its ad rate) and use it as a bridge comedy or midseason replacement. But most likely as a bridge comedy. I foresee that there may only be one, so let the battle begin. No, we don't know much about how Galavant Season 2 will do, but here's a sense going into the season:

	Galavant	The Muppets
Nature	Musical-Comedy (Sunday)	Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)	1.33 (last season)	1.51
Ad Rate	$112,914	$122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics)	1.44	1.68
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	0.9-2.0 (last season)	1.1-2.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	1.25 (Note: inflated slightly by 1.7 special rating)	N/A
% Decline Year-to-Year	N/A	N/A
Syndication	N/A	N/A
Seasons	8 episodes	1 partial season
Production Company	ABC Studios	ABC Studios
Extraneous Factors	Musical comedy, presumably cheap to produce	They’re The Muppets, a very popular franchise. ABC and The Muppets share the same corporate company (Disney)

Galavant premiered to a solid 2.0 last season, before falling to a 0.9 just two weeks later. It was considered one of the more surprising renewals of the season, and extraneous factors must have been a big reason for that. I don't know why ABC is valuing the show so relatively high other than the fact that there must be something we don't know about. That being said, I think The Muppets being a bigger brand may have a more compelling case for a renewal. I'm not saying definitively that either show will or should be renewed, but if one of them was, I would give the edge to The Muppets.

Edge: The Muppets

Will The Family Make It?

ABC All Access 

You would think that a 1.27 A18-49 value wouldn't be so hard to live up to, but The Family has to air between Once Upon a Time and Quantico, neither the ratings hits you may be led to believe based on Internet hype. Maintaining such a number may be hard. If it does well enough for a renewal, that's probably bad news for both Castle and Nashville.

When Will Uncle Buck and Secrets & Lies Air?

Looks to me like Secrets & Lies is planned for the summer, kind of like fellow anthology series Wayward Pines last season on FOX. If not, it's because The Family or more likely Of Kings and Prophets has been pulled from the schedule. Remember that the show's ad price was made when it supposedly was going to be a bridge for Nashville, so it may have lower standards if they push it to the summer.

In terms of Uncle Buck, the scenario that I see is that when the Friday block finishes, which has usually been in April, Uncle Buck does double-duty and is never heard from again.