The Major Scheduling Changes and What They'll Need to Break Even in the Ratings

I'm going to take a look at a few of the major shake-ups this season and analyze around what A18-49 demo number the average will need to be for said schedule changes to be considered a success from a ratings-only viewpoint.

Some of you are familiar with SpottedRatings, whose major claim to fame is the introduction of the 'Plus' metric, which gives ratings with respect to the Big 4 league average. For example, a show with a 100 Plus is an average-rated show, while a show with a 130 Plus rates at 130% of the league average. I'll be using that metric in the discussion below. So, let's take a look! Please be sure to leave your insights below!

1)
Network: ABC
Notable Change: Adding a 2nd comedy hour on Tuesday by moving The Middle, The Goldbergs, Fresh Off The Boat, and The Real O'Neals.
Question #1: What will the shows need to average in order for the comedies to remain the same in cumulative Plus?
Question #2: What will the shows need to improve Tuesday 8-10 and Wednesday 8-10?

Last season, the six returning weekday comedies cumulatively averaged a 122.17 Plus. For convenient math let's call the league average this season a 1.3, which would be a reasonable 11% decline. To get a 122.17 Plus this season, the 8 comedies will need to average a 1.59.

However, it is best to add Marvel's Agents of SHIELD into this, as comedy will be taking over the hour it previously occupied. As an hour-long show at just an 80 Plus, this drags the goal down to a 101.63 Plus, or a 1.32. Now that's not as hard to beat, at least with Modern Family in the picture.

So the lesson is, while it may be a challenge for ABC's weekday comedy brand to perform better than it did last season with this move, it shouldn't be as hard on average to improve Tuesday/Wednesday 8-10pm. Of course, some half-hours will be down in the process, in fact there's a small, yet still possible, chance that almost all of last season's comedy slots are down in Plus, the fact that SHIELD and its 80 Plus are averaged into this make it easier to see improvement. So there's really two ways of looking at this if the weekday comedy average is a 1.4 A18-49 L+SD rating. You can say it's a failure because comedy as a whole is down year-to-year as a result of the change, or you can say it's a success because overall the Tuesday and Wednesday 8-10pm slots are overall improved over what was there last season.

2)
Network: CBS
Notable Change: Adding 2 new hours of comedy on Monday by moving 2 Broke Girls and The Odd Couple and transferring Supergirl over to our favorite 10-hour network, as well as moving Scorpion back to 10pm.
The Question: What will the shows have to average to improve Monday nights?

Last season, Supergirl, Scorpion, and NCIS: LA averaged a cumulative 109 Plus. A 109 Plus this season, provided the league average is a realistic 1.3 demo rating, would be a 1.42 demo rating.

Also last season, the cumulative average for 2 Broke Girls, Scorpion, and The Odd Couple was a 110 Plus; something 2 Broke Girls has never done and The Odd Couple's average is deceivingly high due to a fair share of post-Big Bang airings. Meaning that not only will all three of these shows need to stay even in Plus, but Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan will also have to perform above average in order for this schedule change to break even in the ratings. The good news? This is presumably a much cheaper option than renewing Supergirl.

3)
Network: NBC
Notable Change: Moving Superstore and Chicago Med to Thursdays while pushing back The Blacklist to 10pm.
The Question: What will the cumulative average need to be in order to improve Thursday nights?

Lots of shows aired on Thursday last season for NBC, but the final line-up of NBC's Thursday last season consisted of reality show Strong at 8pm, The Blacklist at 9 (the only constant for what seemed like a much longer time than it was), and Game of Silence at 10. That adds to up a 65.33 Plus! Or, in what's likely to be this season's standards, around a 0.85 A18-49 rating.

Based on premiere numbers, they shouldn't have all that much trouble clearing that with this season's numbers; though there were some stronger shows in the mix like Heroes: Reborn and Shades of Blue, neither set the ratings world on fire and only one got out of the season alive. So, if NBC sees 1.0s across the board this season from their new Thursday line-up, they'll have an improvement, and Chicago Med will be making backend revenue in no time. Not to mention ad rates for the night will probably be up significantly.

The Future of the Night: ABC Tuesday

Welcome to a segment I call "The Future of the Night". The format is I take a look at a night on the network's schedule, see what could use improvement, and come up with scenarios which could potentially solve it. First, I present a short argument as to why it could work, then play Devil's Advocate with my reasoning, and then present the bottom line. Enjoy, and fee free to leave your opinions by leaving a comment!
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Tuesday is arguably ABC's worst night. It starts off with Fresh Off Th eBoat, a marginal player that is way below the ratings of its Wednesday siblings, yet is still the highest-rated show of the night. The Real O'Neals is barely struggling to not go fractional, Marvel's Agents of SHIELD has gone fractional, and nothing can EVER break a 1.0 demo rating at 10pm. ABC has a real problem on the night, and several ways to potentially fix it.

Option 1: Grow Fresh Off The Boat, Push SHIELD to 10pm
Why It Will Work: SHIELD and its low ratings are probably on their way out anyways, so why not just push it to 10pm and let it take the hit instead of a new show? Also, FOTB getting renewed probably means ABC has plans for it other than leading off the night with low 1s. Shifting it to 8:30 and moving a Wednesday comedy to 8pm could create a strong(er) Tuesday hour. Stay tuned for tomorrow's edition, where there will be a more complete analysis on the pros and cons of moving each comedy (if any).

Why It Won't: Disney owns both ABC and Marvel; will they really allow one of their shows to be shifted to the 10pm death slot? Also, a Wednesday comedy could crumble on Tuesday, leaving nothing for FOTB to gain and a lost Wednesday dynamic.

Bottom Line: This is probably the most plausible option for ABC, making necessary changes while also opening up a spot at 9pm for a new show. It's a safe choice, but not the safest.

Option 2: Stay Steady
Why It Will Work: Statistically, half of the network's shows have to be below average. Not every night has to include high-rated comedies or be called TGIT. Leave Tuesday alone for now (including Beyond the Tank at 10pm) and work out Sunday and Monday first.

Why It Won't: Really? Does ABC really want Fractional Tuesday? I don't think so, and advertisers don't as well. Something has to be done, whether that's a complete overhaul or just an improvement in one hour.

Bottom Line: ABC is known for stability, but this is one night where stability may not be the best option. The safest? Yes. But not the best.

Option 3: New Drama(s)
Why It Will Work: Once again, if you schedule a show that intrigue people and promote it right, viewers will at the very least sample it. We saw that with The Muppets. But just because Tuesday hasn't had success as of late doesn't mean they never will. Put one or two promising drama pilots on Tuesdays, and chances are at least one will stick.

Why It Won't: Marvel's Agents of SHIELD is not a good lead-in for a drama. The other options aren't the greatest either; a comedy isn't bound to help a drama all that much, and the last thing you want is to make a promising pilot self-start and crumble. Also, ABC tried this strategy with Sunday this season, and one of them was DOA.

Bottom Line: Whatever happens, ABC should try to do some shifting on Tuesday. Maybe two new dramas back-to-back isn't the best, but it will at least be a chance to get something working.

Option 4: Move a Veteran Drama
Why It Will Work: Of all the dramas ABC has tried on Tuesday in the past 4 seasons, only 1 has been renewed. Time to try a show with a solid following instead of throwing another newbie to the wolves.

Why It Won't: What veteran is strong enough to move to Tuesday, but not strong enough to be more needed somewhere else?

Bottom Line: The drama that comes to mind here is How to Get Away with Murder. It's strong enough as to that it'll improve the time slot, but not strong enough that Thursday is guaranteed to crumble without it. Still a big risk though.

What do you think? Are there any other somewhat-plausible options that I didn't cover? Let me know in the comments below!