2021-22 Drama Scorecard (9/21-1/5): This Is Us Shatters a Seasonal Ratings Record for Scripted Series

2021-22 Drama Scorecard (9/21-12/7): Are Oldest Veterans Like Greys Anatomy and NCIS A Safe Bet?

 

The 2021-22 season has not been kind to scripted series in the Nielsen arena.  Not only are all fractional, but the highest-rated scripted series barely cracks the 0.80 mark.  Where this season delivered shocks in the drama department are prior heavyweights the networks touted lost massive ground this season, particularly aged veterans Grey's Anatomy and NCIS.  Both 18 and 19 seasons in respectively, both are down 30-40% from the prior season's sturdy entry.  NCIS suffered from shocks to the system of not only losing Mark Harmon as its lead, but being ousted off its plum Tuesday timeslot it knew for 18 years.  The same cannot be said for Grey's, who is firmly planted in a familiar timeslot and still has its star lead intact.

2021-22 Drama Scorecard (9/21 - 10/25): All American Debuts Strong on CW; Matches Series Low of A Million Little Things on ABC

 CW often belts shows out in the 2021-22 season with ratings between 0.05-0.10.  This made All American's 0.23 debut jolting as it not only almost quadrupled most of their shows, but cracked into the Top 100 of 125 shows on the air.  All American's ratings are indeed down from the prior season but demonstrate strong interest in the show.  Only one episode has aired so a renewal prediction will wait until next week.

More noticeable is that episode matched A Million Little Things' series low this season, and consequently it is ABC's lowest-rated drama until Queens' final numbers are posted.  In the prior season, ABC was a heavyweight in the drama category thanks to its winning block with Station 19, Grey's Anatomy and AMLT on Thursdays, plus a mild breakout hit with Big Sky on Tuesdays.  This season, all have lost massive ground, most noticeable Grey's and Station 19 who have lost 30-35%.  This dropped ABC's drama ranking from 2nd to 4th over one season.  Given these drops, deciphering which dramas will be axed is tedious.  The Rookie has been soft on Sundays, AMLT is hemorrhaging and Big Sky has collapsed and retains a paltry 55-60% of Grey's lead-in.  

Consequently, CBS has stabilized by utilizing the formula for procedural franchises.  Most of its helpings are delivering stable to above average, save for Bull and CSI: Vegas.  Their impatient changes last year are paying off and they no longer resemble America's most tired network.  FOX also rinsed and repeated last fall's strategy of testing out its weakest dramas in the fall behind decent to strong leads, both of which likely will be lopped off the schedule.  Little changes occurred on NBC as their Chicago and Law & Order franchise blocks deliver strong on Wednesday and Thursday, and dramas are strewn throughout the schedule.  La Brea made an impressive debut in This Is Us' vacant timeslot, but Ordinary Joe is under-performing in the post-Voice timeslot on Mondays.  New Amsterdam and Blacklist are bombing, but life at NBC is mostly stable with 6 winning dramas.

2021-22 Drama Scorecard (9/21-10/1): The Rookie Is...

 Read the table below and gather a sense of what is going on with another season of Nielsen drops.  Last season's heavy-hitters, 9-1-1 and Grey's Anatomy have drifted from extraordinary to ordinary hits.  Not a single scripted series on radar has registered above the 1.0 mark, showing a climate change for Broadcast Television as those numbers only exist in Reality TV and sports.  Among the first two weeks' entries, many question if The Rookie may be done this season.  It may indeed be a possibility as Nathan Fillion's salary comes at a premium, much like Ellen Pompeo's salary on Grey's Anatomy.  

Another victorious factor to examine is The Rookie registered a 0.36 18-49 Adult Demo rating out of Supermarket Sweep's 0.44.  This is indeed a noticeable lead-out, but Big Sky delivered a 0.37 out of Grey's Anatomy's 0.77, and The Good Doctor delivered an underwhelming 0.41 out of Dancing With The Stars' 0.72 entry.  The Rookie's retention, coupled against a less desirable timeslot leaves it leaning toward renewal with the math presented.  Shows need two-plus Nielsen ratings to have renewal odds predicted unless renewed or cancelled, which is why most of the chart reads purple below.

Not all shows lost ground, or shifted into a better place.  Law & Order: SVU has found a mild renaissance in its 23rd season, having grown almost 30%, and its fellow franchise Organized Crime is enjoying the surge in compatible scheduling.  Grey's Anatomy took a hit, but fellow spinoff Station 19 is neck to neck in Nielsen performance and indicating it is well established.  The Chicago-verse (another overdone franchise) is also down but sturdy with all entries delivering in the upper echelon of the charts.

Some color coding updates exist in the chart.  As mentioned above, series with only one rating registered are colored purple and will update with more rating performance.  Also, series which have concluded their run inside the season will switch to a red front to indicate their data is no longer tracked.  

2020-21 Drama Scorecard (May 9-June 18): More Cruelly Delayed Cancellation to Report

 60 dramas now are on display, most of which belong to CW in the last third of the chart.  40 shows are renewed and returning, 2 are moving elsewhere (Paramount Plus), 4 declared their final season prior to launch, 12 were cancelled, and The Outpost and The Republic of Sarah are still on the air ready to determine.  Given it is nearly impossible for CW to cancel a show, there isn't much for discussion there.

What is on the table is the slew of awkwardly executed cancellations performed by NBC following upfronts in May.  It was hardly surprising to see Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist get the axe though the shock laid in it wasn't outsourced to streaming app Peacock.  The series was critically acclaimed and visually appealing, but rated downright poor during both of its seasons.  Even a mild bounce to Tuesdays could not forecast growth was possible.  Manifest had its own shock factor after moving to Thursdays late in the season, taking a dip in ratings but upgrading the poorly-rated sitcoms.  However, it also sat next door to the lucrative and powerful Law & Order power block, failing to establish itself being able to improve various timeslots if moved elsewhere.

These cancellations seemed saddening (and should have been handled earlier as it seemed NBC made up their mind a long time ago).  However, this week's cancellation of Good Girls struck the largest shockwave.  Good Girls was in its 4th season and helped NBC make a soft colony on Sundays, a difficult evening to broadcast.  Renewal odds were predicted for Likely Renewal due to a strong history, which now appears to have come to a close.  NBC appears to be heading not for troubled waters, but a bland, predictable schedule few will care about.  Just how many Chicago or Law & Order spinoffs does an audience need?