What’s Trending on Streaming - June 22-June 27: The Bear Stays Strong with Final Season, Avatar: The Last Airbender Returns in the Shadows of I Will Find You, House of the Dragon Dominant
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Showing posts sorted by date for query Two Hits And A Flop. Sort by relevance Show all posts
CBS Renew/Cancel Week 17: CIA Is About to Go On Its Final Mission + Renew/Cancel March Madness Voting Begins
This week on the CBS Renew/Cancel, good news for one freshman show may prove disastrous for another, as CBS makes its priorities clear. Plus, the CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness returns for another year!
What’s Trending on Streaming: Daily Trending Lists for Hulu, Disney+, Peacock, Paramount+ and Max from May 11-May 17
It's been another busy week on streaming, with several new entries and the finales of multiple top performers across the streamers. Keep reading to see what was trending on Hulu, Disney+, Peacock, Paramount+ and Max for the last week.
NBC Renew/Cancel 2019-20 Wrap Up: A Look at the Hits and Misses
NBC has finally made their final renewal decision of the 2019-20 season, with the cancellation of Council of Dads coming earlier today. That means it's time for my 2019-20 season Renew/Cancel wrap-up. It was a long season, with final decisions arriving nearly two months later than usual, but it's finally over. Keep reading to see what my record for the season is, and read my thoughts on the season that was. Below is my full chart of predictions for the season, with every show placed exactly where I last left them before their fates were decided.
FOX Renew/Cancel Week 1: Lethal Ratings ?
Premiere week is already over and all we can say is that it was a pretty good one for FOX. Here are my predictions for FOX shows including newbies The Cool Kids and Rel.
The Resident: The medical drama returned with a 1.1 matching its highest Monday ratings from last season. This year it has 9-1-1 as lead-out which probably helped it. Of course we have to wait and see how it does in the coming weeks but, so far, it looks good to return in for a third season.
9-1-1: The show did amanzingly well last season and the network decided to move it to Monday 9PM. 9-1-1 had a two-night premiere on September 23rd and September 24th. Both episodes did very well (2.6 on Sunday, 1.6 on Monday). The Ryan Murphy drama is certain to return in 2019-2020.
The Gifted: In May, FOX announced that the Marvel show would move to Tuesday 8/7c in the fall. Honestly I didn't think it was a good idea. The Gifted did good for its first season but nothing spectacular. It was off the air for eight months and returned on Tuesday with a 0.9 which is not bad all things considered. I'm not optimistic though as it has to stay steady all season long in order to get renewed.
Lethal Weapon: After losing one of its lead in May, Lethal Weapon returned on Tuesday with a mediocre 0.8. It matched season two finale but was down 32% year-to-year. Being owned by Warner won't help it and I would be surprised if it gets renewed (or even a backorder).
Empire: Empire is far from the monster it once was but still one of the strongest drama on television. The fifth season premiere averaged a 1.95 among adults 18-49 (down 20% vs last season premiere). Unless it goes fractional, there's no reason to cancel it.
Star: While it's getting pretty good ratings, it looks like FOX is done with it. Star was almost cancelled in May and season 3 is likely the show's last. It premiered with a 1.45 on Wednesday (out of Empire's 1.95) but it's expensive and I think that's why it's getting cancelled.
Last Man Standing: In May, FOX revived the former ABC's comedy Last Man Standing. A lot of us thought it would bomb but it premiered with very strong ratings (1.8 A18-49 and 8.13 million viewers). It has to fall a lot to be in any danger.
The Cool Kids: I always thought it would premiere fractional and... it didn't. It's even this season #1 new comedy (I'm not counting Last Man Standing). The Cool Kids has a strong and compatible lead-in but we never know. I think it's getting renewed as long as it doesn't fall into mid 0s.
The Simpsons: I don't know what to say. The Simpsons entered its 30th season and got a 1.4 (even with last season's premiere). No way FOX gets rid of it in the near future.
Bob's Burgers: It aired at 7:30 for many years and now its sandwiched between The Simpsons and Family Guy. Its premiere got a 1.1 which is a bit disappointing but far from bad. It's safe.
Family Guy: Family Guy is still one of FOX's strongest shows. It was cancelled once but it's now too valuable for the network to end it. Honestly, I can see it lasting for a very long time.
Rel: While the other Sunday shows are hits, Rel is a flop. It got a 1.9 post-Football but only a 0.8 after Family Guy. It has to be very steady to get a backorder. FOX will air all its episodes and then replace it by something else.
CERTAIN TO BE CANCELLED
None
LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED
Lethal Weapon
Rel
Star
ON THE BUBBLE
The Gifted
LIKELY TO BE RENEWED
The Resident
Last Man Standing
The Cool Kids
CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED
The Simpsons
Bob's Burgers
Family Guy
Empire
9-1-1
NBC Renew/Cancel #0 [2017-18]: ’Will & Grace’ Already Renewed + Preseason Predictions
Predictions for 8/3/17
It's time for the first NBC Renew/Cancel post of the season. I'll be taking over this feature for the upcoming season. While the fall season hasn't started yet, NBC has already made some decisions. Also, I'll be making some preseason predictions for the veteran programs that will be returning in the fall.
Will & Grace - The classic sitcom hasn't even returned yet, but it's already been renewed for a 10th season. It's probably not a great idea considering not all revivals have been rating hits, but it's good to have it out of the way.
This Is Us - The drama has already been renewed for a third season, but unlike 'Will & Grace', this one deserves it.
The Dick Wolf Shows (Law & Order: SVU, Chicago PD, Chicago Fire) - All three shows are strong performers for the network and should have no problem returning. Unless they suddenly collapse in the ratings, they will stay in the 'certain renewal' column.
Superstore - The workplace comedy will be entering its third season and currently has 33 episodes. With two more 22-episode seasons, the series will have a decent amount of episodes for a syndication package. Even without that, 'Superstore' is a solid performer in the ratings. The second season averaged a 1.1 in the Adults 18-49 demographic. That made it the second-highest rated comedy on NBC. Like the Dick Wolf shows, I'll be keeping it in this category unless it pulls some alarmingly low numbers.
The Good Place - 'The Good Place' was NBC's highest-rated comedy last year, so why is it not a certain renewal? It's because high-concept serialized comedies tend to fall a lot in their second seasons. Fox's 'The Last Man on Earth' fell nearly 30% in its sophomore season while ABC's 'Galavant fell over 50%. But, that doesn't really mean that 'The Good Place' is in any danger. NBC is giving it an 'America's Got Talent' lead-in for the premiere and it never fell below a 1.0 in the ratings last year. It's still likely to return, but I'm being a bit cautious with this one.
Great News - This comedy was a flop. Period. Its ratings did not warrant a renewal, but it managed to come back anyway. This time, 'Great News' is getting a likely strong lead-in from 'Will & Grace'. I'm not sure that 'Will & Grace' will be big enough to boost the sophomore comedy or if 'Great News' will be compatible with it. This is why I'm keeping it in the "toss-up" category. The fact that it's getting a timeslot upgrade is keeping it from the 'cancellation' categories, but I'm still skeptical that it does well.
The Blacklist - The drama will be entering its fifth season. The previous one fell over 30% in the ratings after a timeslot downgrade. This time, the series is getting another timeslot change and will air at 8 pm instead of 10. Considering that the series has fallen around 30% each season, I'm not expecting it to do very well. Ratings were just barely passable last season, so with another brutal drop, they'll be in disaster territory. Still, it was very steady towards the end of last season, so I think it's possible that it takes that late-season steadiness to a new timeslot.
Blindspot - 'Blindspot' fell nearly 50% last year and will now be moving to Fridays. This means that the bar will be lower, but ratings will also likely fall lower. But, a move to Fridays isn't always a death blow. A move to Fridays helped ABC's 'Last Man Standing' and CBS's 'Hawaii Five-0' find new rating potential. I really don't know what to expect from this one, so it's a toss-up.
Poll of the Week
Poll of the Week
Which Returning NBC Comedy Are You Most Excited For?
TV Ratings 7/19/17: MasterChef Ticks Up, Forever Young Hits New Low, Salvation Steady (UPDATED)
Finals Update: Big Brother (+0.1) and a repeat of the Goldbergs (+0.1) adjusted up.
Time
|
Show
|
18-49 Rating/Share
|
Viewers (mil)
|
Channel
|
| 8 PM | Big Brother | 1.9/8 | 6.15 | CBS |
| MasterChef | 1.1/5 | 3.41 | Fox | |
| Little Big Shots: Forever Young | 0.8/4 | 5.78 | N/BC | |
| The Goldbergs (R) | 0.7/3 | 3.00 | ABC | |
| Arrow (R) | 0.2/1 | 0.86 | The CW | |
| 8:30 PM | Speechless (R) | 0.5/2 | 2.17 | ABC |
| 9 PM | The Carmichael Show | 0.7/3 | 3.26 | NBC |
| The F Word | 0.7/3 | 2.10 | Fox | |
| Salvation | 0.7/3 | 4.28 | CBS | |
| Modern Family (R) | 0.6/3 | 2.52 | ABC | |
| DC's Legends of Tomorrow (R) | 0.2/1 | 0.74 | The CW | |
| 9:30 PM | American Housewife (R) | 0.6/2 | 2.24 | ABC |
| The Carmichael Show (R) | 0.6/2 | 2.64 | NBC | |
| 10 PM | Criminal Minds (R) | 0.6/3 | 4.19 | CBS |
| Modern Family (R) | 0.6/3 | 2.36 | ABC | |
| This Is Us (R) | 0.4/2 | 2.00 | NBC | |
| 10:30 PM | The Goldbergs (R) | 0.5/2 | 1.98 | ABC |
NBC Renew/Cancel: 'Emerald City' Certain to be Canceled + 'The Blacklist' Moves Up
Welcome to another edition of the NBC Renew/Cancel Watch. With many of NBC's shows having repeats this week, now is the perfect time to assess all of their performances so far.
KEY
- Show title (Average adults 18-49 rating / Most recent rating)
CANCELED
- Grimm (0.8 / 0.8) [Final season]
CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED
- Emerald City (0.8 / 0.6)
Emerald City fell to a 0.6 rating this Friday, and this sealed its fate as NBC's first show to be listed as "certain to be canceled" on my list this season. There is absolutely no situation in which I can see NBC bringing back this show. This is probably NBC's biggest flop this season so far (alongside Timeless). This show had a pretty big promotional push, but NBC cursed it with such a terrible timeslot. I personally think they need to move it to Saturdays for the rest of its run and expand Dateline to two hours once again, for a 0.6 should not be acceptable for NBC, even on a Friday, after having a fractional-less fall season.
LIKELY TO BE CANCELED
- Blindspot (1.2 / 0.9)
- Timeless (1.2 / 0.9)
Timeless returned from its break with its first-ever fractional rating. If it wasn't likely to be canceled before this, it sure is now. NBC just has too many returning shows and development projects for Timeless to stick around. The same can be said for Blindspot, so say goodbye to these two could-have-been hits.
COULD GO EITHER WAY
- NONE
LIKELY TO BE RENEWED
- The Blacklist (1.1 / 1.0)
- The Good Place (1.3 / 1.1)
After spending a few weeks in the "could go either way" category, I have decided to move The Blacklist back up to "likely to be renewed" once again. As you may know, I do not like to keep shows on the bubble in my renew/cancel predictions. Because of this, after some careful consideration, I decided to make this move. I don't see NBC letting The Blacklist go just yet, for I believe it will at least get a shortened, final season (just like Grimm, which I was correct and adamant about last season).
The Good Place ended its season with a one-hour finale, in which both episodes garnered a 1.1 rating. I believe this show did JUST ENOUGH to squeeze out a renewal for next season. It is fully-owned by NBC as well, so this just furthers its chances. With a little bit of Netflix exposure (NBC definitely needs to add this one to Netflix), I believe this show could be a solid performer for the peacock network.
CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED
- Chicago Fire (1.6 / 1.8)
- Chicago Med (1.3 / 1.2)
- Chicago P.D. (1.4 / 1.5)
- Law & Order: SVU (1.5 / 1.4)
- Superstore (1.3 / 1.2)
Nothing much has changed here...
RENEWED
- This Is Us (2.7 / 2.8) [Two-season renewal]
Because of This Is Us's renewal, we now have a new category in the 2016-17 Renew/Cancel Watch: the renewed section! Out of all of NBC's shows this year, this one deserves this renewal the most. This Is Us is truly a hit for NBC.
POLL OF THE WEEK
FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: A New Methodology on This Halloween
What Are Those Numbers Doing in the Table?
The numbers in the table are my way of integrating the ad rates into my Renew/Cancel predictions. As you've seen in a previous post, this season my ad rates and ratings correlation research will be presented in terms of relative ratings percentages to make the math simpler and the position of the show easier to track. I found this correlation to be pertinent to the fates of the low-to-mediocre-rated veteran shows last season (meaning shows that were in at least their 3rd season; sorry Mysteries of Laura), so while the data is also presented for younger shows, it won't be as pertinent. Also, extraneous factors such as syndication potential may outweigh first-run ratings for the better.
So when you look at The Last Man On Earth, which right now leans a renewal, you see a (73/71) in brackets. This means that The Last Man On Earth is currently at 73% of FOX's scripted average this season, and its "target" in a direct correlation between ad rates and ratings says it would need at least a 71% of the scripted average in order to be renewed. We'll see if the outcome is as pleasant as last season, but last season the formula correctly predicted Bones' and Sleepy Hollow's renewals, two predictions that I did not make.
Thanks to the new setup of Renew/Cancel Watch, each and every show will get a prediction explanation this time. Let's begin!
Why Are Empire, Lethal Weapon, The Simpsons, Family Guy, and Gotham Certain to be Treated to Another Season?
Let's start with The Simpsons and Family Guy. Not only are they clearing their targets, but both are ratings hits for FOX. Plus, Family Guy probably already has leftover episodes and The Simpsons just doesn't get canceled. Lethal Weapon is by far FOX's top-rated freshmen show, and has even shown that it can stand on its own without the Empire halo, better than Rosewood did at least. Speaking of which, even though Empire currently isn't meeting its target, it's the #1 show on all of broadcast TV. It didn't have a sophomore crash, and even in its third season it is yet to flame out, so unless the writing gets really bad or some major actors randomly quit, this one should be in for the long haul. Finally, there's Gotham, which although is a 3rd season show that is not hitting its target, and most likely won't hit its target by the end of the season either, it will have 3 full seasons under its belt, and since it's still up there as a top-tier drama for FOX, Warner Brothers should have no problem making syndication $$ off of this show.
Why Are Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Lucifer Likely to be Treated to Another Season?
Brooklyn Nine-Nine is oh-so-close to hitting its target, and since FOX doesn't even own the marginally-rated show, most signs would point to a cancellation. However, it does have strong syndication potential, with TBS buying the first five seasons for syndication, contingent on a fifth-season renewal. It wouldn't surprise me if FOX doesn't have it on its schedule next season, but I'm very willing to bet that it will see a fifth season somewhere. If not FOX, then maybe TBS, Hulu, or even SeeSo (a comedy streaming service owned by NBC Universal).
Lucifer holds almost all of Gotham's audience, if it doesn't hold on to all of it or even grow from it, and as we see is at a solid 82% of FOX's scripted average. This is another example of "doesn't hit the target, but ratings are good anyways". Looking at the numbers, FOX has bigger problems than canceling a show at more than 80% of their average.
Why Do Son of Zorn, The Last Man On Earth, Pitch, and The Exorcist Lean Treated to Another Season?
OK, so Son of Zorn's average right now may be frontloaded and football-inflated, and it may not have the best of retention, but at 114% of FOX's scripted average and a product of Lord Miller Productions, plus being on brand for them, I don't think it's dead just yet. If its average takes a plummet, or if its later-episode average ends up being super-low, then I'll change my mind, but for now its chances are looking decent. Not good, but decent.
The Last Man On Earth, at a 71% target, is just barely getting by right now. I imagine it still gets that streaming boost it got in its first season that helped it tremendously, and if there's one thing I learned from Bones, Sleepy Hollow, Nashville, and Castle, it's not to distrust the correlation. That could change after this season, but right now I'll let the numbers do the talking.
Though I did say that the correlation between ad rates and ratings doesn't really apply to freshmen series because they are no more than educated guesses, but what Pitch and The Exorcist have going for them is that advertisers are getting what they paid for: not that much, but they bought ad time on the cheap. The Exorcist may end up being axed thanks to an incredibly low ad rate that will almost certainly have to be raised next season to keep it financially viable (assuming it is already), but I think the ratings rises, the limited episode orders, and the fact that it airs on a Friday on FOX are all in its favor. I'll keep a very close eye on Pitch, especially considering airing amidst the World Series didn't help it at all, but for now I'm being optimistic. It may come down to how the midseason dramas perform, and there are a lot of them.
Why Do Rosewood and...New Girl? Lean Tricked to a Cancelation?
Looking at the numbers, Rosewood is *barely* doing better than The Exorcist...and it airs on a Thursday, after having been nurtured the entirety of last season. FOX isn't too known for canceling shows after two full seasons, but I think this could be another Touch situation: a show that did pretty decently had pretty poor retention out of its massive lead-in in its first season but didn't drop too much when its lead-in wasn't new, but dropped 67% y2y once moved away and to a tougher time slot (Fridays). Granted, Rosewood isn't down as much as Touch, but it is down 57%, and I think it'll be lucky if it ends up down less than 50% y2y. It doesn't do particularly better in the younger demographics and isn't heavily DVR'd, and unlike Pitch, which I think has a niche enough audience that it could end up being a Friday staple if it gets another go-around, Rosewood is simply too weak a show and didn't benefit from being nurtured in its first season.
New Girl is probably one of the more surprising predictions in this edition's table, but I'll explain: it's an older show now, and the ad rate and rating correlation probably applies to it now more than ever, being deep into its veteran years and a very middling performer, if that. It didn't take long at all for it to go fractional, and I would argue that it's underperforming a bit this season. Its ad rate may be boosted a bit by a relatively young skew, and it's still doing a solid 84% league average rating in A18-34, so it's not totally out and could move up to leans a renewal, but once again, the numbers will do the talking for me, and I simply think it may be too far below its target to be renewed. Plus, it no longer has much lead-in power and based on the shows they have now and the ones in development, they appear to be headed more after the male demographic in their comedy department.
Why Is Scream Queens Likely to be Tricked to a Cancelation?
Last season, I get it. It had great C3 boosts, people streamed it, it got a ton of social media buzz...but at least last season its L+SD ratings were mediocre enough. It still gets that young skew, which could work out in its favor, but even then, that A18-34 demo rating being at 72%, albeit a huge jump from the 50% of the league average in A18-49, is still very paltry, with it still being nearly a flop in 18-34. And total viewers don't really matter, but I do think we should just stop and recognize the fact that it's currently averaging 25% of the league average in total viewers. 25%. Which isn't totally bad, that's 6th place on The CW. (sarcasm detector on high)
What do you think of these predictions and the methodology? Let me know in the comments below, and be sure to share this article with your fellow ratings friends!
What Does NBC's Future Look Like?
NBC has been facing a major struggle in recent seasons in a particular area, comedy. The network headed into the 2013-14 season with the hope that Parks and Recreation would hold up the network's comedic slate, and that they would find new hits in one or more of Welcome to the Family, Sean Saves the World, The Michael J. Fox Show, About a Boy, or Growing Up Fisher. However, Parks and Recreation only did okay up against CBS's huge hit comedy The Big Bang Theory, and only About a Boy out of those five new series was renewed. The following season would have Parks and Recreation quickly end its run with 13 episodes aired over 7 weeks and About a Boy fail in its second season, ultimately getting pulled from the schedule. Additionally, all three of the network's in-season new comedies failed. All NBC was left with was Undateable, which aired during the summer almost as a burn off in its first season, and ran for 10 episodes after The Voice in its second season. In the fall of 2015, NBC learned that Undateable truly didn't have even a decent-sized audience, even with the attraction of airing live each week. Similar to Undateable, NBC is trying to make The Carmichael Show work, after a somewhat successful first season after America's Got Talent, and decent ratings following new unscripted hit Little Big Shots in its second season, but weeks where Carmichael aired with a small lead-in in season two showed that it is a flop, even though it will be entering season three this upcoming season. Why is this NBC comedy history important in an article about the future of the network? Because it shows what the network has been facing, why they must be so grateful for Superstore, and how desperately the network needs another hit comedy.
Superstore isn't a big hit, but its solid ratings in season one in an unusual timeslot gives NBC a lot of hope. It is vital to NBC that the show performs well this season, and that it isn't affected too much when The Big Bang Theory shows up a few weeks into the season. But the network can't rely on one solidly performing comedy, which is why it is important that one of the network's four new single-camera comedies this season performs well. Personally, I think that Great News and Powerless have the best shot at being this show, and NBC would be very lucky if both earned solid ratings. Luckily, comedies aren't filling up NBC's schedule, with only one hour of comedy in the fall, so if the new shows fail, NBC isn't in the situation where they have holes to fill. But NBC can't rely on The Voice and Dick Wolf's shows forever, and the network whose past includes Cheers, Seinfeld, Friends, and The Office can't just give up on comedy.
Like comedy, Dick Wolf has a major presence in the past of NBC, and that remains true in the present. He has four shows returning to the network this fall: Chicago Fire, Law & Order: SVU, Chicago PD, and Chicago Med. These procedurals make up half of the network's returning dramas. The first three are all sure to rate well and get renewed. Chicago Med is entering its second season, and is moving to a much more difficult timeslot, so it isn't certain like the others, but it is still very likely to get renewed. There is one more Dick Wolf show coming to the network this season. Chicago Justice is set to begin at mid-season, currently scheduled for Sundays at 9:00. Considering the success of the rest of the Chicago franchise, it is likely to perform well. These shows are mostly young (the exception being the very old SVU) and likely to last long.
The other half of the network's returning dramas aren't quite as successful. The Blacklist performs decently, and should be able to get renewed for a fifth season. But the other three can't be as sure about their fates. Blindspot is likely to perform poorly in its new timeslot, and Shades of Blue is a mystery, as it is currently intended to air in a difficult timeslot, but Chicago Justice could be the perfect lead-in. Also, Shades of Blue was very stable in another very difficult timeslot for NBC. Meanwhile, Grimm doesn't need to worry because it is scheduled to end this season.
Unlike other networks, NBC may need a more than quick look at unscripted. Currently, The Voice is still a hit. But how long will that last? The show has been on the decline, and we have to wonder how expensive it is with four judges who are popular singers. The Voice's end isn't that soon, but it could be soon enough to start worrying, considering that it takes up three hours of the network's schedule and provides great lead-in support to shows on Monday at 10:00 and Tuesday at 9:00. NBC's schedule is also filled by Dateline and football, the former of which is a reliable performer on lower rated nights, and the latter of which gets huge ratings. I don't know the details of NBC's Sunday Night Football deal, but losing Sunday Night Football at some point would be a huge loss for the network.
The only aging show the network needs to worry about replacing is The Voice, which means that this is a good place for NBC to grow from. In particular, they need to grow their comedy slate. If they can do that, the future of the network is bright.
What do you think NBC's future looks like? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
What Does FOX's Future Look Like?
The Simpsons and Family Guy aren't the hits they used to be, getting decent ratings in the spring, but nothing great. However, they still hold up the Sunday comedy block when football isn't boosting the night, and that will likely stay the same unless Son of Zorn or Making History turn out to be powerhouses. Bob's Burgers and The Last Man on Earth also air on Sunday night, delivering acceptable ratings. On Tuesday night, New Girl could again hold up surprisingly well like it did last season, while I don't have very high expectations for Brooklyn Nine-Nine, especially since this season it will have to air at 8:00 and it will be on an otherwise female-aimed night. New comedy The Mick is also set to air on this night in 2017, which may be the network's attempt to head back into the dysfunctional family sitcoms, but will that work?
There are three comedies sure to be renewed, The Simpsons, Family Guy, and The Last Man on Earth, and fellow Sunday comedy Bob's Burgers has already been renewed. The Simpsons and Family Guy have both aired on FOX for a long time, and aren't at the level that FOX would get rid of them, while The Last Man on Earth gets acceptable ratings, is FOX-owned, and critics love it. New Girl isn't a lock for renewal, many thought that season 5 would be its last, but it held up surprisingly well. New Girl could end after this season if it doesn't hold up well, new comedies do well enough that the network decides they don't need it, or if the show decides six seasons is enough. However, it could continue if it has another small drop between seasons and FOX doesn't really have anything to replace it with. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is lower rated however, and with it completing its fourth full season, the network could very well decide they're done with the show. The only other option I see is that they decide since they've stuck with the show for four years, they'll give it a final season.
The network's two long-running animated comedies don't show any signs of ending, so the network doesn't need to worry about finding replacements for them. But if the network hopes to continue comedy on Tuesday, or really just any night that isn't Sunday, they need a New Girl replacement. The other group-of-friends types of shows FOX has tried recently haven't worked, with Weird Loners and Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life completely flopping. Maybe viewers want something else, and we will see this winter and spring if they want dysfunctional families with The Mick premiering. FOX currently has a problem with figuring out what its viewers want in comedy, with only Brooklyn Nine-Nine and The Last Man on Earth around from all of the comedies they have premiered since 2012.
FOX was very fortunate in early 2015 when Empire premiered big, and then grew from there. Of course, it has declined now since its season two premiere, but the show still gets huge ratings. Lethal Weapon will likely benefit from that as Rosewood did. Meanwhile on Monday, Gotham and Lucifer will likely continue to get decent ratings, as they did this spring while paired together. Thursday, however, doesn't look as strong, with Rosewood likely to be a huge flop at 8:00 and who knows how Pitch will do, but it's definitely incompatible with Rosewood. Also, let's not forget Scream Queens, which gets seemingly acceptable but nothing great, or even good, And new series The Exorcist will air on Fridays, and the reviews so far aren't pointing to success. This is FOX's drama slate, plus the fourth season of low-rated Sleepy Hollow and final season of long-running Bones at mid-season, along with new shows Star, Shots Fired, A.P.B, and 24: Legacy, plus a revival of Prison Break.
While I expect Empire to be down considerably from season two, it will still be big and still an easy renewal. Monday shows Gotham and Lucifer should also be able to return. Beyond this, it is more difficult to determine. Scream Queens and Sleepy Hollow got renewed this time around, so unless they drop a bit more than league average, they will probably get renewed again, as hard as that is to imagine for Sleepy Hollow. I really don't see how FOX can keep Rosewood around for a third season, because this season it will certainly be exposed for the flop that it is (unless Pitch is a big hit and Rosewood stays there all season, getting the same boost it got last year), but then again Sleepy Hollow got renewed for a fourth season despite terrible ratings, so who knows. For the new shows, I don't see Lethal Weapon or The Exorcist doing well, and I don't expect A.P.B. to either, so that leaves Pitch, Star, Shots Fried, and 24: Legacy to potentially do well, and it's really hard to say which ones will.
While FOX has many problems, finding replacements for old dramas isn't one of them. Bpnes is ending, but the network doesn't really need it anyway. Empire and Gotham are young, but the only other drama older than them is now-flop Sleepy Hollow. The network struggles off of Wednesday and Sunday on football nights, but they don't have aging veterans that need replacing like ABC and CBS do.
Taking a quick look at unscripted, FOX has reliable Hell's Kitchen and MasterChef Junior. They are also trying new Kicking & Screaming at midseason, but I think that will go the way of their recent summer unscripted attempts, which is to say, not well at all. Hell's Kitchen and MasterChef Junior, however, are solid schedule fillers however, which helps the network often on Friday nights or when flops occur.
FOX's future doesn't really look too much worse than its present, which is really disappointing for the network considering the state it's currently in. The one thing it needs to do somehow is figure out how to keep its shows from having big drops each season.
What do you think FOX's future looks like? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
What Does the CW's Future Look Like?
Supergirl has moved from CBS to the CW, where it will fit in more, with super hero shows beginning the night on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as well, I think that the show will do quite well, potentially being the CW's #2 show for the season. Meanwhile at 9:00, Jane the Virgin will likely see a boost thanks to a much improved lead-in. However, the show is still a weak one that will likely follow Nikita, Beauty and the Beast, Hart of Dixie, and most likely Reign in finishing after four seasons.
The two oldest superhero shows on the CW are strong ones, The Flash and Arrow likely to get strong ratings again for another season. Also, both shows must now launch new ones. No Tomorrow comes from the creators of Jane the Virgin, and like Jane it's a dramedy produced by CBS, so it will most likely join the low-rated CBS dramedy club. However, this one can last if it gets the acclaim that Jane the Virgin and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, and more importantly their stars Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom got. It's hard to know what to expect out of Frequency, but do remember that the CW rarely cancels shows.
The one superhero show that isn't as strong is the young Legends of Tomorrow. Luckily, this show is now getting the show that Arrow and The Flash originally got as their lead-outs as its lead-out, Supernatural. The long-running drama just can't seem to die, and it may provide help for Legends of Tomorrow as it enters its second season. Legends of Tomorrow's ratings are currently unsure, but it is highly unlikely that they will be low enough for a cancelation, if that is even possible.
The Vampire Diaries is coming to an end, and to a ratings follower four years ago, that would be a reason to be concerned for the network. Sure, Supernatural is hanging in there, and new show Arrow could be a hit, but what else does the network have? Luckily, in the time between then and now, the network got a lot, specifically high-rated The Flash, former CBS show Supergirl, and decent performers Legends of Tomorrow, Jane the Virgin, iZombie, and The 100. All of that is good enough for a ten hour network, and let's not forget that The Originals isn't a flop, even if it's not the highest rated of shows. At 9:00 on Fridays is low-rated Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, and who knows what to expect for season two, stability, flopping, or even a rise, and who knows what it is the CW needs to keep it around. Stable ratings? Continued critical acclaim? Or does reaching season 2 on the CW guarantee you 4 seasons? Who knows what the rules are on the CW, which makes it difficult to predict the fates of shows like Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, like it was difficult to predict for iZombie last year.
While other networks may be worrying how they are going to replace their old hits, that's not really a problem the CW has to deal with. The Vampire Diaries is ending, and that matters surprisingly little, and who knows if Supernatural's end is even in sight. Even if it is, the network won't be at a huge loss without it, as it isn't a huge performer, and they still have their superhero shows delivering the ratings and anchoring nights.
The CW's future is bright, because their hits are young and they have nights well anchored. The network may get lower ratings than the big four, but it's future looks better than theirs do.
What do you think the CW's future looks like? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
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