ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: More Predictions Explained

Canceled	Certain to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
Blood & Oil	Agent Carter	Castle	American Crime	Last Man Standing	Dr Ken	Blackish
Wicked City	Galavant	The Family	The Real O’Neals			Fresh Off The Boat
	Of Kings and Prophets	The Muppets				The Goldbergs
		Nashville				How to Get Away with Murder
						Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD
						The Middle
						Modern Family
						Once Upon a Time
						Quantico
						Scandal

On Agent Carter and Galavant

At the beginning of the year, I told myself that I wasn't going to put a bridge series to a certain cancellation after what happened last season. I've broken that though. Agent Carter is down 47% year-to-year, averaging a 0.79 A18-49 demo. Galavant is down 52% year-to-year, averaging a 0.63 demo. Both numbers are simply inexcusable; in the case of Galavant, it's the lowest-rated scripted show to have aired on ABC all season (including Wicked City), and Agent Carter is the third-to-lowest. Could you imagine what the numbers would be next season? Almost gaurenteed to be even worse. While I like the idea for bridge season, ABC just hasn't found shows that have done all that well, unless you count American Crime's award love.

On Of Kings and Prophets and The Family

Of Kings and Prophets just premiered to a 0.8 A18-49 rating. Let that sink in for a little. At this point it's not a matter of renewal or cancellation, it's a matter of how many episodes ABC will actually air in-season. 

The Family did worse than I expected. I had a gut feeling it would be a break-out hit like Resurrection, but it wasn't; in fact, it lost almost half its audience for its in-time slot premiere and is already fractional. I'll give it one more week to see if it can inch up and show some signs of life, but if not, the certain cancellation column is inevitable.

On The Muppets and The Real O'Neals

I really think that if ABC had intended to renew The Muppets, they would have done so alongside Fresh Off The Boat and the Wednesday comedies' mass renewal, which also came very shortly after its finale (great for PR purposes). The only glimmer of hope I see for it is if Last Man Standing's contracts don't fall through, Dr Ken goes off the air with it (which I think isn't going to happen), and ABC wants to continue with comedy on Friday. There's not much of a chance of it happening, but maybe that's where The Muppets comes into play? It would easily be a certain cancellation if it weren't for corporate synergy, and just because it's at a likely cancellation now doesn't mean I won't downgrade it eventually.

The Real O'Neals lost a lot of its premiere audience on its first in-time slot showing, pulling in a 1.1 preliminary A18-49 rating. Like The Family, I'll give it one more week to see if it rises; if it stays the same or falls, I'll downgrade it. It doesn't really look like ABC would need it with Fresh Off The Boat already renewed.

On Dr. Ken

I was legitimately surprised that Dr Ken wasn't included in the mass renewal. Shortly thereafter, it aired after a rerun of Last Man Standing, and kept its typical numbers. That sure is impressive, and ABC has finally found a solid companion to Last Man Standing. This shows that the show can stand on its own and deserves a renewal regardless of what happens to Last Man Standing. 

What's Next?

American Crime has critical acclaim, something that ABC is starting to lack now that the critics aren't as high on Modern Family as they used to be, but it's also averaging fractional (0.94). On the downside, it's the fifth-lowest-rated ABC show this season, but on the plus side, it's ABC's #1 scripted bridge series. I want to see its finale's rating before making a decision, and it will be a hard one with new management, seeing that we don't know what there plans regarding a bridge season are for next season. Right now I'm leaning renewal (55%-45%), but I'm not entirely sure. We also might have to revisit Castle. Stay tuned.

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Castle is Now a Likely Cancelation

Why is Castle Likely to be Canceled?
Last issue, I stated that it was do or die time for Castle on its special Sunday at 10 time slot. The show right now is very low-rated and going through some contractual issues from what I've read, but I figured that if it managed to not go fractional last night, ABC could move it to the low-priority time slot next season and focus on growing Quantico's ratings. With a 0.8, though, that doesn't look like it's happening. That's significantly below both Quantico and last season's Revenge, and ties Nashville's series low. Combine that with the fact that Nashville is probably somewhat cheaper and that the city pays for production, I now see Nashville having more of a chance. I would like to see how Nashville performs when it returns though; it's possible that both are canceled, but increasingly less likely that both are renewed.

On Agent Carter, The Muppets, and Galavant
All three of Agent Carter, The Muppets, and Galavant are doing very poorly in the ratings right now. I wanted to say that The Muppets would have a chance at taking over the Sunday bridge time slot if/when Galavant is canceled, but it returned fractional despite the time slot upgrade and still-significant promotional push. Even a writer of The Muppets possibly inadvertently revealed that the show has been losing money (but will become profitable overseas?). I think it's time ABC cut their losses and cancel the show instead of sticking with it for the sake of corporate synergy and international revenue. I still feel hesitant about having The Muppets and Agent Carter, both corporate synergy shows, as likely cancellations, but can I really justify upgrading them when the ratings are so poor? If upfronts were tomorrow these would be the least surprising potential misses, but if they are renewed at least we'll know the reason.

Cooper Barrett, Bordertown, and Galavant Premiere Really Low

FOX

Things are not looking good for new FOX comedies Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life and Bordertown. Cooper Barrett premiered to a 1.2 in the all-important A18-49 demographic, and Bordertown a 1.1.

Other Sunday ratings include the season premiere of Galavant (0.9), and regular episodes of The Simpsons (2.0) and Family Guy (1.7).

Will they finish out their episode orders in these prime time slots? Or will The Last Man On Earth come back earlier than expected? Leave your thoughts below!