ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: More Predictions Explained

Canceled	Certain to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
Blood & Oil	Agent Carter	Castle	American Crime	Last Man Standing	Dr Ken	Blackish
Wicked City	Galavant	The Family	The Real O’Neals			Fresh Off The Boat
	Of Kings and Prophets	The Muppets				The Goldbergs
		Nashville				How to Get Away with Murder
						Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD
						The Middle
						Modern Family
						Once Upon a Time
						Quantico
						Scandal

On Agent Carter and Galavant

At the beginning of the year, I told myself that I wasn't going to put a bridge series to a certain cancellation after what happened last season. I've broken that though. Agent Carter is down 47% year-to-year, averaging a 0.79 A18-49 demo. Galavant is down 52% year-to-year, averaging a 0.63 demo. Both numbers are simply inexcusable; in the case of Galavant, it's the lowest-rated scripted show to have aired on ABC all season (including Wicked City), and Agent Carter is the third-to-lowest. Could you imagine what the numbers would be next season? Almost gaurenteed to be even worse. While I like the idea for bridge season, ABC just hasn't found shows that have done all that well, unless you count American Crime's award love.

On Of Kings and Prophets and The Family

Of Kings and Prophets just premiered to a 0.8 A18-49 rating. Let that sink in for a little. At this point it's not a matter of renewal or cancellation, it's a matter of how many episodes ABC will actually air in-season. 

The Family did worse than I expected. I had a gut feeling it would be a break-out hit like Resurrection, but it wasn't; in fact, it lost almost half its audience for its in-time slot premiere and is already fractional. I'll give it one more week to see if it can inch up and show some signs of life, but if not, the certain cancellation column is inevitable.

On The Muppets and The Real O'Neals

I really think that if ABC had intended to renew The Muppets, they would have done so alongside Fresh Off The Boat and the Wednesday comedies' mass renewal, which also came very shortly after its finale (great for PR purposes). The only glimmer of hope I see for it is if Last Man Standing's contracts don't fall through, Dr Ken goes off the air with it (which I think isn't going to happen), and ABC wants to continue with comedy on Friday. There's not much of a chance of it happening, but maybe that's where The Muppets comes into play? It would easily be a certain cancellation if it weren't for corporate synergy, and just because it's at a likely cancellation now doesn't mean I won't downgrade it eventually.

The Real O'Neals lost a lot of its premiere audience on its first in-time slot showing, pulling in a 1.1 preliminary A18-49 rating. Like The Family, I'll give it one more week to see if it rises; if it stays the same or falls, I'll downgrade it. It doesn't really look like ABC would need it with Fresh Off The Boat already renewed.

On Dr. Ken

I was legitimately surprised that Dr Ken wasn't included in the mass renewal. Shortly thereafter, it aired after a rerun of Last Man Standing, and kept its typical numbers. That sure is impressive, and ABC has finally found a solid companion to Last Man Standing. This shows that the show can stand on its own and deserves a renewal regardless of what happens to Last Man Standing. 

What's Next?

American Crime has critical acclaim, something that ABC is starting to lack now that the critics aren't as high on Modern Family as they used to be, but it's also averaging fractional (0.94). On the downside, it's the fifth-lowest-rated ABC show this season, but on the plus side, it's ABC's #1 scripted bridge series. I want to see its finale's rating before making a decision, and it will be a hard one with new management, seeing that we don't know what there plans regarding a bridge season are for next season. Right now I'm leaning renewal (55%-45%), but I'm not entirely sure. We also might have to revisit Castle. Stay tuned.

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Castle is Now a Likely Cancelation

Why is Castle Likely to be Canceled?
Last issue, I stated that it was do or die time for Castle on its special Sunday at 10 time slot. The show right now is very low-rated and going through some contractual issues from what I've read, but I figured that if it managed to not go fractional last night, ABC could move it to the low-priority time slot next season and focus on growing Quantico's ratings. With a 0.8, though, that doesn't look like it's happening. That's significantly below both Quantico and last season's Revenge, and ties Nashville's series low. Combine that with the fact that Nashville is probably somewhat cheaper and that the city pays for production, I now see Nashville having more of a chance. I would like to see how Nashville performs when it returns though; it's possible that both are canceled, but increasingly less likely that both are renewed.

On Agent Carter, The Muppets, and Galavant
All three of Agent Carter, The Muppets, and Galavant are doing very poorly in the ratings right now. I wanted to say that The Muppets would have a chance at taking over the Sunday bridge time slot if/when Galavant is canceled, but it returned fractional despite the time slot upgrade and still-significant promotional push. Even a writer of The Muppets possibly inadvertently revealed that the show has been losing money (but will become profitable overseas?). I think it's time ABC cut their losses and cancel the show instead of sticking with it for the sake of corporate synergy and international revenue. I still feel hesitant about having The Muppets and Agent Carter, both corporate synergy shows, as likely cancellations, but can I really justify upgrading them when the ratings are so poor? If upfronts were tomorrow these would be the least surprising potential misses, but if they are renewed at least we'll know the reason.

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Do Or Die Time For Castle

Changes from Last Time

-Fresh Off The Boat upgraded from "Likely to be Canceled" to "Watching"

-The Muppets downgraded from "Watching" to "Likely to be Canceled"
-American Crime downgraded from "Likely to be Renewed" to "Watching"

On The Muppets and Fresh Off The Boat

ABC is really, really trying to save The Muppets, or at the very least, minimize their losses on the show. They just upgraded its time slot so that it has a lead-in, slightly retooled the show, and in my experience continues to automatically play on ABC website after I watch any ABC comedy. Who would have thought this would have happened when the show was first announced? Not me, as I predicted it would become the next Modern Family or Office. Now, it's likely to be canceled. Why?

Well for starters, it hit a series low in its return. I had originally thought that ABC would renew this show as a bridge for Once Upon a Time, the time slot Galavant has taken for two seasons in a row now. I still hold to my opinion that if renewed, that's really the only plausible option for The Muppets.  Now, over its first season, Galavant had a 2.0/1.3/0.9/1.1 trend in the ratings, and I just can't see how it comes back after its numbers this season. If The Muppets can stabilize around a 1.0, I may just have to call a renewal come May. If not, I'll have to brainstorm some other options for a Once Upon a Time bridge, and I invite everyone reading this to do so as well. So The Muppets is a likely cancellation for now. It would be a much easier call if it weren't for corporate synergy.

Now, if you've been following ABC Renew/Cancel Watch on The TV Ratings Guide, you've probably heard me explain why I had thought Fresh Off The Boat would be a likely cancelation. Such reasons included ABC doesn't own it, it's far from syndication, it's ratings have been declining, it may not even be as strong as the Friday shows, etc. But seeing it actually rise to a 1.4 A18-49 rating last Tuesday was actually a bit of a surprise to me. Could The Muppets actually have been hurting the show? I think Fresh Off The Boat could go either way now. It may be packaged with Last Man Standing again, for example. 

On Castle and Nashville

You Castle fans really have seen your show in the "Watching" column a lot this season, haven't you? I found out that there is an episode airing on Sunday, February 14, at 10/9c. I'm not sure if ABC is

TV Blanket

advertising this or nor, but what some others see as an outlier episode for scheduling reasons, I see as a tryout. ABC wasn't exactly known to have released a radical schedule this year, but I can now see a scenario where Quantico moves to Sunday at 9 or Monday at 10, with Castle taking on Sunday at 10. But that's ONLY if Castle does good enough on Sunday. And by good enough, I mean at least a 1.0. The Family is still an unknown, but if Castle does OK Sunday at 10, I can see it surviving. I can't, however, see both Castle and Nashville surviving, nor both being retired. So in my eyes, this is do or die time for Castle. No pressure.

What do you think of my predictions? Please, leave a comment below with your own thoughts!

Predict the Ratings of Fresh Off The Boat and The Muppets

Tonight, Fresh Off The Boat and The Muppets return. Both went out on series lows--a 1.2 for Fresh Off The Boat and 1.1 for The Muppets, showing that they are the two weakest ABC comedies on the
schedule right now. However, due to the troubles on ABC Tuesday as a whole, I have The Muppets as a "Watch" and Fresh Off The Boat as a likely cancellation. How they do tonight may change those predictions. So, how do you think they will do?

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch Show Comparisons: Castle, Nashville, Last Man Standing + More

Welcome to the FINAL edition of ABC Renew/Cancel Watch of 2015. No, today is not Friday, but I took Christmas off from the site. This time, I've broken down the charts into comedy and drama for better comparison of similar shows.

Drama

Canceled	Watching	Certain to be Renewed
Blood & Oil	Castle	Grey’s Anatomy
Wicked City	Nashville	How to Get Away with Murder
		Once Upon a Time
		Quantico
		Scandal

Wicked City was pulled from the schedule long ago, but good news for the few of you who watched: the next few episodes are now available on Hulu, with the rest to follow. This also means that ABC has no intention of getting a 0.0 broadcasting them. Blood & Oil was "trimmed", which means canceled, and I'm finally making the move of putting it in the "Canceled" category now that the season/series is over. I'm not doing a Pros and Cons list for them, since it's obvious that they have nothing going for them and everything going against them.

Showdown: Castle vs Nashville

I firmly think that with the cancellations of Blood & Oil and Wicked City, one of Castle and Nashville will surprise unless both The Family and Of Kings and Prophets are surprise hits.

	Castle	Nashville
Nature	Procedural	Serial
Season Average (A18-49)	1.13	1.03
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	1.0-1.2	0.8-1.2
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	1.8	1.9
% Decline Year-to-Year	36%	27%
Syndication	Syndicated	Entering Syndication
Seasons	8	4
Ad Rate	$118,195	$92,965
Extraneous Factors	N/A	Music Sales/Tours

Most signs point to Castle getting the renewal over Nashville if you told me that one, and only one, will be renewed. However, the ad prices indicate that advertisers this season got more "bang for their buck" than Castle did, and the latter's ad price would have to drop dramatically for a final season. The extraneous factor of music sales is also in Nashville's favor. I'm "Watching" both right now--what do you think? Vote in the poll and leave your thoughts in the comments.

Comedy

Certain to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed
	Fresh Off The Boat	The Muppets	Last Man Standing	Blackish
				Dr Ken
				The Goldbergs
				The Middle
				Modern Family

Disregard what you might see on some other sites, The Middle is a certain renewal along with the rest of the Wednesday comedies. As long as Dr Ken holds decently and The Real O'Neals/Uncle Buck don't magically start doing 2.0s, it's also a certain renewal. That leaves us with Last Man Standing, The Muppets, and Fresh Off The Boat, which I placed in three different categories but comparisons can still be made. 

Showdown: Last Man Standing vs Fresh Off The Boat

Like Castle and Nashville, I think one of Last Man Standing and Fresh Off The Boat will eek out a renewal, while the other will be cancelled. Unlike Castle and Nashville, I think Last Man Standing has much more going for it than Fresh Off The Boat--except for Tim Allen's contract. Here's a side-by-side comparison as to what I consider to be some of the most important factors:

	Last Man Standing	Fresh Off The Boat
Nature	Multi-Cam (Friday)	Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)	1.25	1.51
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	1.1-1.3	1.2-1.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	N/A	1.5 (but has settled around 1.1-1.2)
% Decline Year-to-Year	3%	16%
Syndication	Just entered (ABC Family, Hallmark, CMT)	N/A
Seasons	5	2
Ad Rate	$64,881	$122,212
Extraneous Factors	Tim Allen’s contract	First Asian-American led show on broadcast in 25 years; does well in that demo

It appears that Last Man Standing is doing remarkable this season because of two factors: one is that it is in constant rotation in syndication, the other being the strength of lead-out Dr Ken. However, ABC doesn't make any money off of its syndication revenue, and Tim Allen may become too

TelevisionPromos

expensive for the show. The show also appears to be undervalued in ad revenue, which is what ABC does make money off of; I'm willing to bet it would be higher in a potential Season 6. Meanwhile, Fresh Off The Boat is valued almost as high as The Middle and The Goldbergs, but is getting much lower ratings. It's understandable why it would be priced so high, as The Muppets was a huge disappointment, but ABC would have to lower the price for this show dramatically next season, and won't make any money off of a potential syndication deal down the road. Not to mention it may go fractional in the spring. The edge is given to Last Man Standing on this one, but if Tim Allen is too expensive, it might just be Fresh Off The Boat's lucky day.

And Then There's The Muppets

Oops, wrong muppets
Credit: Wikia

Oh, The Muppets: ABC's weakest comedy that currently has a 1.5 A18-49 average, even though it hasn't seen a number above that since October 6. All the recent airings have been in the low 1s, and the ratings are a massive disappointment. The most recent episode was watched by just 38% of the audience that watched the series premiere, indicating that audiences have rejected the show. Deemed a "limited series", it received a short backorder and is claimed to being retooled--aka, ABC spent too much money advertising this show to let it go out like this, and are taking extra measures to try to get it to improve. This includes airing reruns at 8:30 on Tuesdays instead of 8, where it will get a fellow prime time show as a lead-in, as well as the aforementioned retooling. If it gets another season, let's hope it doesn't take a spot from a higher-rated any other ABC comedy, and that it's on the bench or airs in between cycles of Once Upon a Time or a TGIT show. Those are all plausible solutions for the show that advertisers are

That's better
Credit: ABC

probably kicking themselves from investing money into, as an additional  $3,000-$4,000 they could have gotten a spot on fellow ABC comedies The Middle or The Goldbergs, which get almost double the ratings. Or they could have grabbed a spot during Dr Ken, which has about the same ratings as The Muppets but half the ad price. And you thought the deals you got on Black Friday were good. Though, it really should be noted that based on its ad rate ABC didn't expect as much out of the show as the media did--but they still expected it to do a lot better than it did. And oh yeah, The Muppets are owned by Disney, which also owns ABC. What a coincidence! Will corporate demand this show get another season, or are its low ratings going to make the show one-and-done?