Two Hits And A Flop: Parks and Recreation, 30 Rock, Outsourced
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Two Hits And A Flop. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Two Hits And A Flop. Sort by date Show all posts
What Does ABC's Future Look Like?
The biggest change on ABC's fall schedule this year is Tuesday. The network has expanded the night's comedy block from one hour to two, and as a result has moved The Middle to the night from Wednesday, where it has aired for seven seasons. With a move like this, The Middle could be in danger of low ratings. However, it has been such a stable performer that it is unlikely to experience ratings that are too low, even with a larger than usual drop between seasons. The rest of the night is much more concerning. Expectations for American Housewife are low, Fresh Off the Boat isn't very highly rated, and is now moving by an hour, and worst of all low-rated The Real O'Neals will be facing controversy heading into its second season due to an interview by series star Noah Galvin, and as a result the show has received little promotion. This of course is followed by the crumbling Agents of SHIELD, which must now air in the toxic Tuesdays at 10:00 timeslot (and if you don't believe that it's toxic, just look at ratings for Beyond the Tank). The first half hour of Tuesdays are looking to work, but the last hour and a half will likely struggle extremely, and the hour in between will likely be in between in the ratings as well,
Luckily, the picture is brighter for the rest of comedy on the network for the season, despite a new anchor on Wednesdays. Like The Middle, The Goldbergs will likely experience a larger than usual drop, but both shows are also normally quite stable, so The Goldbergs at 8:00 shouldn't look much different than if The Middle were still at 8:00. Speechless is the new comedy with more promise, and the 9:00 hour remains the same. Over on Fridays, the two multi-camera comedies are also staying put, though we should keep an eye on Dr. Ken's ratings. It has the advantages of being produced by ABC, being cheaper due to its format, and having less expected of it because of the night it airs on, but it still must maintain decent ratings, so it will need to stay stable. Season two will be the real test for the show.
From the ten comedies airing this fall plus the two midseason replacements, almost any number and combination could end up returning in 2017-18. At the very least, The Goldbergs and Black-ish are sure to return, because the former is one of ABC's three main comedies they rely on (and the other two are getting old) and the latter is entering its third full season (and is produced by ABC), so it's a lock for syndication purposes. If ABC is impressed with how the comedies perform this season, and probably unimpressed with their development slate, they could renew nine of their twelve comedies. I can't see a scenario where they renew any more, as they would not expand comedy by another hour after just expanding, and I doubt they would put only one new comedy on the fall schedule. Eight returning comedies on the fall schedule, with one returning one for midseason (probably Modern Family or Last Man Standing due to being expensive, or as a final season because the cast wants out) would be the maximum.
I mentioned that The Goldbergs and Black-ish were locks to return, but I have not yet mentioned why The Middle, Modern Family, and Last Man Standing are not. There are two reasons, and they are quite simple: age and cost. The one most obviously battling both of these is Modern Family. It has a large cast, who want to get paid more and more, while the ratings are declining. Also, the show has been on for seven years, and is now beginning its eighth. The cast is likely getting tired of the show, and the crew could be as well. The Middle isn't battling cost as much, but it is just as old as Modern Family, so the show could decide for itself that it's done. Last Man Standing, on the other hand, isn't quite as old, entering season six, but it stars Tim Allen, and his paycheck likely isn't small. What's also important to look at is how the network will do in the comedy department without these three veterans. They have The Goldbergs, which will likely continue to anchor Wednesday night, and Black-ish is a decent performer, so it could possibly anchor a night. Fresh off the Boat and Dr. Ken aren't failures, but they aren't very strong, so I doubt the network will rely on them in the future. I'm doubtful that either will pass season five. And who knows how long Black-ish will go on. Can we really see it in season six or seven?
It isn't just comedy that's getting old at ABC, though their oldest drama doesn't seem to be ending any time soon. Grey's Anatomy will be anchoring Thursday nights for the third consecutive year. Fellow TGIT drama Scandal, however, may not last as long. Shonda Rhimes doesn't believe that Scandal is a show that will continue on for a long time like Grey's Anatomy, which is why I think that season seven, or even the upcoming season six, could be the show's last. Third-oldest of the Shonda bunch, How to Get Away with Murder is still young, but how long will it last? The show's ratings aren't as high as the other two shows, and season three could be a weak year for it without a Scandal lead-in during the fall. I doubt that Murder and Scandal would end in the same year, so I think that it will go on one or two years longer than Scandal, but at most that gives it a six-season run, near the end of which it will likely be seriously struggling in the ratings. Meanwhile, The Catch is a flop nearly as bad in the drama category as The Real O'Neals is in comedy. Unless Shonda Rhimes can find a new hit, which Still Star-Crossed almost certainly won't be, considering the lack of success for period dramas and that ABC doesn't plan on airing it on Thursday this season (though plans do change), Grey's Anatomy will likely be her only hit drama on the air quite soon.
While Shonda's dramas seem to be dying, bar Grey's Anatomy, perhaps we can find drama success elsewhere on ABC. However, that hope begins to die when we remember what the other returning dramas this season on ABC are: Agents of SHIELD, Once Upon a Time, Secrets & Lies, Quantico, and American Crime. As mentioned earlier, SHIELD is dying, and not slowly. Once Upon a Time enters season six this fall, which is an old age for genre dramas, and additionally is no longer the hit it once was. Secrets & Lies seemed to have momentum in season one, but that was in spring 2015, and many fans may not be interested in the new case this season without Ryan Phillippe. Quantico's spring ratings were weak, and it may not even score a third season (and if it does get a third season, it will likely go the Revenge route, four-and-done). American Crime is a limited series that has never been and never will be a hit. Wow, that is bleak. The hope for ABC in drama seems to be with their freshman slate, where despite the very likely failures of Still Star-Crossed and Time After Time (the next Forever, but in a slightly less troubled timeslot), Conviction or Notorious could be a decent performer that ABC keeps around. I believe that the real potential for ABC's drama future lies in Designated Survivor, a potential hit starring Kiefer Sutherland airing Wednesdays at 10:00.
ABC could end up renewing eight dramas this season, only one less than they renewed this time around, but even if they give eight renewals, Once Upon a Time and Scandal will likely be entering final seasons, while How to Get Away with Murder, Quantico, and American Crime would be weak. The future seems to lie with Grey's Anatomy and the new shows, which is not a good situation to be in. Grey's Anatomy is old, and we have no idea at this point how the new shows will perform. We can simply be optimistic for the three fall freshmen, Designated Survivor with the most potential, and Conviction and Notorious to keep an eye on. If ABC can air solidly rated dramas in the 8:00 hour on Sundays and Thursdays, and keep the 10:00 hour from failing, they should be fine. However, this depends on the new shows of this season and next. They are responsible for keeping Sundays from falling and patching up the black hole that is Tuesdays at 10:00.
Taking a quick look at unscripted, everything seems fine at ABC. America's Funniest Home Videos keeps Sundays at 7:00 looking alive, Dancing with the Stars and The Bachelor keep Mondays well rated throughout the year, and Shark Tank and 20/20 provide Fridays with decent ratings. The four that have been on for a long time look like they will continue to be on for a long time. Shark Tank doesn't look like it will continue on forever, but it isn't anything that ABC needs to be worrying about replacing in the near future.
ABC's future in comedy looks better than its future in drama. However, both require strong new shows to come along soon, to replace aging comedies and dying dramas. Their future success depends on the timing of the arrival of new hits. Drama needs new hits quickly for Sundays and the 10:00 hour. Comedy needs new hits before the ones coming up on their eighth seasons end.
What do you think that ABC's future looks like? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
Knowing Your Audience: The Networks' Comfort Zones + What Happens When They Stray From Them
Many say that one of the main ways of making your business a success is to know your audience. All five broadcast networks have different audiences in general, so what happens when the network caters to that audience and when they stray from it? Keep reading to find out.ABC
Summary
Although ABC doesn't really have a particular genre of dramas that they are known for (it's more a mix of procedurals and serials), one thing ABC does know is that their audience loves family comedies. This was first demonstrated by the success of Modern Family in 2009, as well as The Middle, which also launched in 2009 but took a little while longer to be deemed a true success. In the 2013-14 season, they saw promise in The Goldbergs, which excelled as the show aired between the two aforementioned ones on Wednesdays starting in the 2014-15 season. That season also brought us Black-ish, one of the most successful shows to air after Modern Family, and Fresh Off The Boat, which defied the odds of earning an easy renewal despite having to start off Tuesdays. In the 2015-16 season, ABC kept mostly to this family comedy brand, adding on multi-cam Dr. Ken as well as Tuesday entry The Real O'Neals. While the latter didn't do that well in the ratings, it still got a renewal, and the former is the first show ever to have aired after Last Man Standing and been renewed for another season.
Of course, there have been some misfires in the family comedy department for ABC. Poorly-named Trophy Wife was an instant flop that still managed a full season, while The Neighbors did mediocre after The Middle and crashed on Friday in its second season when paired with multi-cam Last Man Standing.
What Happens When They Stray
This season, the one time they strayed from family comedy was with The Muppets, which took on a more adult tone and while sampled well, completed crashed in the following weeks. They even retooled the show, with then-President Paul Lee saying they were going to make it more family-friendly. It was too little too late by then, but it's clearly evident that he and ABC knows that their audience wants family comedies. If they wanted The Muppets to be a workplace comedy, they could go over to NBC. More on that later.
What's Next?
In the upcoming fall, ABC went for mostly family comedies. Making the fall schedule were American Housewife, which is about an imperfect mother trying to fit into a perfect town (sound familiar much?); and Speechless, about a special needs child and his family. Not so much in the spring, where they have Downward Dog, about a talking dog and his take on life with his owner; as well as Imaginary Mary, about a woman who finds herself into a family and is guided by her old imaginary friend.
They picked two or three family comedies (depending on the execution of Imaginary Mary and how much it focuses on the whole family), and now the question is if they picked up the right ones. Like last season, there seems to be zero early buzz for these new comedies, which is never a good sign. In the 2014-15 season, both Blackish and Fresh Off The Boat were surrounded by hype that none of the above shows are receiving thus far. Time will tell.
CBS
Comfort Zones: crime/cop/medical procedurals, multi-cam comedies
Summary
CBS is by far the king of crime procedurals. They've made 3 NCISs, 3 Criminal Minds, and 4 CSIs. They also have procedurals such as Hawaii 5-0, Elementary, and Blue Bloods. While some of them do just OK in the ratings, they are always reliably steady and do great in reruns. Furthermore, they provide CBS will a lot of backend revenue, as they own or partially own all their dramas and can sell them into (usually) successful syndication deals. Just like with ABC and their family comedies, not all of CBS's crime procedurals do well, but it is definitely still their safe zone.
On the comedy front, CBS typically find success in multi-cam sitcoms, which also tend to fare much better in syndication than single-cams. Coincidence? I think not. The Big Bang Theory has done wonders for them, while 2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly are and were also solid players that are in heavy syndication rotation (though they won't be making that backend revenue). Mom will soon join the syndication crew, and new classics like Two and a Half Men and How I Met Your Mother are still very popular both online and in syndication.
What Happens When They Stray
Of course, they don't only do cop procedurals. This season, they went a little bit outside the box with Limitless, based on a movie from last decade. While it did OK, CBS decided to cancel it. Many speculate that the network did not like the more serialized nature it took, and were not invested in it long-term considering that in general serialized shows make far less money in syndication and are tougher sells than procedurals. They also got rid of Person of Interest, which in addition to being non-owned was also a more serialized show. And perhaps their most infamous risk this season was with superhero drama Supergirl. It did OK in the ratings, but was produced but Warner Brothers and did not give CBS the young skew that had hoped for. Off to The CW you go, Supergirl. It was most likely getting renewed on one network or another, but CBS clearly didn't see a reason to invest in it long-term.
In the comedy genre, CBS has tried a fair deal of single-cam comedies to see if they can find any success stories. The renewal of Life in Pieces marks the first time CBS has renewed a single-cam in God knows when. Not only do they tend not to do as well in syndication, but they also prove to be incompatible with the rest of CBS's line-up. In recent years, they have tried shows such as one-and-done The Crazy Ones, as well as the experimental Angel from Hell, which got pulled from the schedule early despite respectable numbers. It seems clear that overall, CBS not only wants a show that will do well for them in the short term, but will also make money for them in the long-term as well. While Angel from Hell's ratings weren't bad per say, imagine the ratings after four seasons and either a nonexistent or mediocre syndication deal.
What's Next?
CBS has zero surprises on their new schedule. They're remaking movies Training Day and MacGyver to bring more name-brands to the network. They've picked up Michael Weatherly (on NCIS) procedural Bull, as well as procedurals Doubt, Ransom, and medical procedural Pure Genius. They're bringing on Kevin James, Matt LeBlanc, and Joel McHale on board to star in three new multi-cam sitcoms. Not a single serialized show or single-cam comedy in sight.
The CW
Comfort Zone: superhero dramas
Summary
For years, The CW has been known for its soapy, young female dramas and dramedies. Not anymore. They are becoming the Berlanti superhero network, with The Flash, Arrow, Legends of Tomorrow, and now Supergirl and Riverdale. All of them film in Vancouver to help with production costs. The first three listed, which are veterans on The CW, all do relatively well in the ratings for the 10-hour network, with The Flash actually very competitive with the Big 4 in its time slot.
What Happens When They Stray
Since they still have to fill up 10 hours in their schedule, they also have plenty of shows outside of the superhero genre. However, bar Supernatural (from the pre-CW days), none of them have exactly been ratings successes, even for The CW's standards. Dramadies Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Jane the Virgin both get frankly terrible ratings, despite critics applauding the performances of the lead actresses. The 100 has a cult following but nothing special. Both of Julie Plec's vampire shows are dying a slow death on Fridays, while Reign has never been much of a success. And to combine their past craze (vampire shows) with their current one (superhero shows), they turned to DC Comics to create iZombie, which is doing OK but has very weak retention out of The Flash.
What's Next?
With the addition of Riverdale and CBS's Supergirl, two of The CW's four new shows will be superhero shows. It appears that The CW knows that its audience likes superhero shows, though Mark Pedowitz has claimed that they don't plan on having the entire network overtaken by the genre. Though they know their main audience, they also are providing other options, perhaps to draw in new kinds of viewers.
FOX
Comfort Zones: high-concept comedies, limited episode count dramas, young-skewing shows in general
Summary
FOX right now definitely has the most off-brand comedies. They have three returning animated shows in The Simpsons, Family Guy, and Bob's Burgers, which are also the only three animated shows on broadcast television. They are also bringing back The Last Man On Earth, a serialized half-hour that continues to defy the sitcom trope by combining dark matter with humor. And with none of them are watched live by the masses, all four of them do great in the M18-34 demo, one that most shows have an incredibly hard time hating. It's been reported that as little as 30-40% of the audiences of Bob's Burgers and The Last Man On Earth actually watch the show live, with around the same amount streaming the episode at a later date. These shows are not renewed because of stellar viewer figures; they're all flops in terms of total viewers, even The Simpsons at 61% of the league average. But considering The Simpsons is also at 236% of the league average in the M18-34 demographic, I'd say there's reason for it to stick around (among many others).
With dramas, FOX tends to do more limited episode count shows than the other networks. In recent years, they've tried with The Following, Sleepy Hollow, Almost Human, Empire, Scream Queens, and others. In fact, Gotham was originally supposed to be limited too. The first two shows listed here were breakout hits in their first season, crashed in their second season, and crashed again in their third season. These shows tend to have short-term success as they are heavily serialized, but FOX is able to make streaming deals involving the shows. Even on the comedy side they have a limited episode show in The Last Man On Earth.
What Happens When They Stray
FOX also has some on-brand comedies, and usually they are not as popular as the "off brand" ones. New Girl does well, but it's another one that is sticking around for its younger skew. This season, they premiered 4 new comedies, one of which was on brand for being off brand (follow?). All four were flops, with the majority of episodes of all of them being fractional, and with the exception of maybe Bordertown, didn't have that young skew as some other shows. Brooklyn 9-9 is sticking around as well, a workplace comedy produced by NBC Universal that airs on FOX. The show and the network don't really mesh too well, so it could be understandable why it doesn't do so great in the ratings.
On the drama side, FOX will not give up on trying to find the next big procedural. Bones has been alive forever, though they're finally retiring it in this upcoming season (until Bones: Live Another Day in February of 2024). Rosewood is an example of them trying, and when it doesn't air on the same night as Empire, the ratings are rather disastrous, and it receives very little boost beyond its Live + Same Day ratings. They've tried flops such as Backstrom as well. While sometimes procedurals do fine on FOX, FOX is no CBS when it comes to that genre, and they don't get the attention that a lot of these serialized, limited episode count dramas do.
What's Next?
FOX appears to be trying to please its audience while also trying to draw in new viewers by programming a mix of high-concept comedies and limited episode count dramas with more broad comedies and procedurals. They appear high on partly-animated Son of Zorn and gave Scream Queens a fall time slot. They also slotted Pitch for the fall, which looks to be their latest attempt at keeping the W18-34 demographic engaged. There will probably be masses of people complaining that they didn't pair it with Empire as a fellow heavily female-skewing drama, the show is very on-brand for FOX and can use Empire and Scream Queens as promotional tools given the expected overlapping audience. Also on-brand for them will be Lee Daniels' new drama Pitch, as well as Lord Miller Productions' Making History.
When talking about FOX and broad offerings, they still have plenty of them. Considering that they want a live audience watching commercials in addition to shows with solid streaming deals, they've picked up several cop procedurals, including Lethal Weapon, APB, and Shots Fired. Perhaps they are taking a page out of CBS's successful book on how to run a network. With comedy, they have The Mick, which appears to be broad and looking to appeal to a more casual audience.
With dramas, FOX tends to do more limited episode count shows than the other networks. In recent years, they've tried with The Following, Sleepy Hollow, Almost Human, Empire, Scream Queens, and others. In fact, Gotham was originally supposed to be limited too. The first two shows listed here were breakout hits in their first season, crashed in their second season, and crashed again in their third season. These shows tend to have short-term success as they are heavily serialized, but FOX is able to make streaming deals involving the shows. Even on the comedy side they have a limited episode show in The Last Man On Earth.
What Happens When They Stray
FOX also has some on-brand comedies, and usually they are not as popular as the "off brand" ones. New Girl does well, but it's another one that is sticking around for its younger skew. This season, they premiered 4 new comedies, one of which was on brand for being off brand (follow?). All four were flops, with the majority of episodes of all of them being fractional, and with the exception of maybe Bordertown, didn't have that young skew as some other shows. Brooklyn 9-9 is sticking around as well, a workplace comedy produced by NBC Universal that airs on FOX. The show and the network don't really mesh too well, so it could be understandable why it doesn't do so great in the ratings.
What's Next?
FOX appears to be trying to please its audience while also trying to draw in new viewers by programming a mix of high-concept comedies and limited episode count dramas with more broad comedies and procedurals. They appear high on partly-animated Son of Zorn and gave Scream Queens a fall time slot. They also slotted Pitch for the fall, which looks to be their latest attempt at keeping the W18-34 demographic engaged. There will probably be masses of people complaining that they didn't pair it with Empire as a fellow heavily female-skewing drama, the show is very on-brand for FOX and can use Empire and Scream Queens as promotional tools given the expected overlapping audience. Also on-brand for them will be Lee Daniels' new drama Pitch, as well as Lord Miller Productions' Making History.
When talking about FOX and broad offerings, they still have plenty of them. Considering that they want a live audience watching commercials in addition to shows with solid streaming deals, they've picked up several cop procedurals, including Lethal Weapon, APB, and Shots Fired. Perhaps they are taking a page out of CBS's successful book on how to run a network. With comedy, they have The Mick, which appears to be broad and looking to appeal to a more casual audience.
NBC
Comfort Zones: workplace comedies and Dick Wolf
Summary
If any network other than CBS makes it painfully obvious that they know their audience and are focuses on catering specifically to them, it's NBC. Sure, you can't say his name on television, but Dick Wolf now has SEVEN NBC shows to his name in the upcoming season. Chicago Fire, Chicago PD, and Chicago Med will all be returning, as will Law & Order: SVU. They've also ordered Chicago Justice, anthology Law & Order: True Crime, and Law & Order: You the Jury. He currently has more presence at a single network than any other of the current greats, and this guy has been around doing wonders for NBC since 1990. There are nine hours of drama programmed on NBC's fall schedule, four of which will be dedicated to Dick Wolf. They are also expected to be the highest-rated veteran scripted shows on their schedule. On the comedy side, workplace comedies are what click for them.
What Happens When They Stray
NBC has had tremendous trouble in the comedy department these past several years, and I think I know why: they've stopped with the workplace comedies. The Office did amazing for almost a decade, Parks and Recreation followed in its footsteps, though didn't have as much of a first-run ratings presence, and 30 Rock was a critical darling that also stuck around for a while. When The Office went off the air, they invested in a sitcom based on a movie focused on a boy and his relationship to his grown neighbor, one where a bunch of standup comedians stand in the setting of a bar for 22 minutes to tell multi-cam standup jokes, and too many romantic comedies to count. Then they try a workplace comedy with Superstore, and all of a sudden they have their first comedy success in years. There was nothing bad per say about the other shows they tried, it's just not what NBC's audience was really looking for.
For dramas, NBC actually has had some luck outside of Dick Wolf, though most of those shows got a season or so of exposure out of The Voice. The Blacklist performs OK, though nowhere near its early potential, while Grimm had done well on Fridays for years but is showing its age now. They also have Shades of Blue, which many consider a success at consistent 1.0s, though in its favor it did have a terrible time slot, unless we count people who watched American Idol on FOX beforehand and just had to see Jennifer Lopez be an American Idol judge one minute and a mom cop the next. But that can't be said for everything. The Mysteries of Laura was a save-face renewal that overachieved in its second season and still got canceled, and shows like The Player, Game of Silence, Allegiance, State of Affairs, etc just have not been working. Neither have most shows when moved away from The Voice, like Smash and Revolution.
What's Next?
In this upcoming season, NBC is heavily focusing on catering to its current audience. As mentioned above, they picked up three new Dick Wolf dramas. They also picked up a spinoff of The Blacklist, their most successful non-Wolf drama at this time. And it seems they figured out that there is still an audience waiting for NBC to make more workplace comedies, as shown through the pickups of Powerless, Great News, and Trial & Error. The latter seems in concept somewhat in vein of The Grinder, though I think this kind of show has more of a chance of success on NBC. Why? They're the king of workplace comedies, they do them right and their audience likes it. Great News could get a second season if it does decently due to Tina Fey and NBC's lack of comedy success in general in recent seasons. The only one I'm doubting right now is Powerless, though maybe some DC fans will come check it out if their Berlanti show isn't counter-programmed on The CW (though as seen above, is a really slim chance). What is interesting though is that they are giving both post-Voice time slots to more off brand shows in Timeless and This is Us. The latter has gotten early buzz and could perhaps take off like many thought Parenthood would, while Timeless is kind of lacking right now. Something tells me it won't last a whole season in that Monday time slot. This schedule actually reminds me of ABC's from a couple seasons back (2013-14), where on-brand shows were picked up but were losing out on the priority time slots to a failed CBS pilot and other off-brand shows. It should be interesting to see how NBC does. They certain picked up the right shows, though I would have to see a midseason schedule before I could really determine if they'll take off or if they'll have to try again next season.
Final Thoughts
Thanks everyone for reading. What do you think about my commentary? Agree or disagree? Leave your thoughts and comments in the comment section below!
FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: A New Methodology on This Halloween
What Are Those Numbers Doing in the Table?
The numbers in the table are my way of integrating the ad rates into my Renew/Cancel predictions. As you've seen in a previous post, this season my ad rates and ratings correlation research will be presented in terms of relative ratings percentages to make the math simpler and the position of the show easier to track. I found this correlation to be pertinent to the fates of the low-to-mediocre-rated veteran shows last season (meaning shows that were in at least their 3rd season; sorry Mysteries of Laura), so while the data is also presented for younger shows, it won't be as pertinent. Also, extraneous factors such as syndication potential may outweigh first-run ratings for the better.
So when you look at The Last Man On Earth, which right now leans a renewal, you see a (73/71) in brackets. This means that The Last Man On Earth is currently at 73% of FOX's scripted average this season, and its "target" in a direct correlation between ad rates and ratings says it would need at least a 71% of the scripted average in order to be renewed. We'll see if the outcome is as pleasant as last season, but last season the formula correctly predicted Bones' and Sleepy Hollow's renewals, two predictions that I did not make.
Thanks to the new setup of Renew/Cancel Watch, each and every show will get a prediction explanation this time. Let's begin!
Why Are Empire, Lethal Weapon, The Simpsons, Family Guy, and Gotham Certain to be Treated to Another Season?
Let's start with The Simpsons and Family Guy. Not only are they clearing their targets, but both are ratings hits for FOX. Plus, Family Guy probably already has leftover episodes and The Simpsons just doesn't get canceled. Lethal Weapon is by far FOX's top-rated freshmen show, and has even shown that it can stand on its own without the Empire halo, better than Rosewood did at least. Speaking of which, even though Empire currently isn't meeting its target, it's the #1 show on all of broadcast TV. It didn't have a sophomore crash, and even in its third season it is yet to flame out, so unless the writing gets really bad or some major actors randomly quit, this one should be in for the long haul. Finally, there's Gotham, which although is a 3rd season show that is not hitting its target, and most likely won't hit its target by the end of the season either, it will have 3 full seasons under its belt, and since it's still up there as a top-tier drama for FOX, Warner Brothers should have no problem making syndication $$ off of this show.
Why Are Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Lucifer Likely to be Treated to Another Season?
Brooklyn Nine-Nine is oh-so-close to hitting its target, and since FOX doesn't even own the marginally-rated show, most signs would point to a cancellation. However, it does have strong syndication potential, with TBS buying the first five seasons for syndication, contingent on a fifth-season renewal. It wouldn't surprise me if FOX doesn't have it on its schedule next season, but I'm very willing to bet that it will see a fifth season somewhere. If not FOX, then maybe TBS, Hulu, or even SeeSo (a comedy streaming service owned by NBC Universal).
Lucifer holds almost all of Gotham's audience, if it doesn't hold on to all of it or even grow from it, and as we see is at a solid 82% of FOX's scripted average. This is another example of "doesn't hit the target, but ratings are good anyways". Looking at the numbers, FOX has bigger problems than canceling a show at more than 80% of their average.
Why Do Son of Zorn, The Last Man On Earth, Pitch, and The Exorcist Lean Treated to Another Season?
OK, so Son of Zorn's average right now may be frontloaded and football-inflated, and it may not have the best of retention, but at 114% of FOX's scripted average and a product of Lord Miller Productions, plus being on brand for them, I don't think it's dead just yet. If its average takes a plummet, or if its later-episode average ends up being super-low, then I'll change my mind, but for now its chances are looking decent. Not good, but decent.
The Last Man On Earth, at a 71% target, is just barely getting by right now. I imagine it still gets that streaming boost it got in its first season that helped it tremendously, and if there's one thing I learned from Bones, Sleepy Hollow, Nashville, and Castle, it's not to distrust the correlation. That could change after this season, but right now I'll let the numbers do the talking.
Though I did say that the correlation between ad rates and ratings doesn't really apply to freshmen series because they are no more than educated guesses, but what Pitch and The Exorcist have going for them is that advertisers are getting what they paid for: not that much, but they bought ad time on the cheap. The Exorcist may end up being axed thanks to an incredibly low ad rate that will almost certainly have to be raised next season to keep it financially viable (assuming it is already), but I think the ratings rises, the limited episode orders, and the fact that it airs on a Friday on FOX are all in its favor. I'll keep a very close eye on Pitch, especially considering airing amidst the World Series didn't help it at all, but for now I'm being optimistic. It may come down to how the midseason dramas perform, and there are a lot of them.
Why Do Rosewood and...New Girl? Lean Tricked to a Cancelation?
Looking at the numbers, Rosewood is *barely* doing better than The Exorcist...and it airs on a Thursday, after having been nurtured the entirety of last season. FOX isn't too known for canceling shows after two full seasons, but I think this could be another Touch situation: a show that did pretty decently had pretty poor retention out of its massive lead-in in its first season but didn't drop too much when its lead-in wasn't new, but dropped 67% y2y once moved away and to a tougher time slot (Fridays). Granted, Rosewood isn't down as much as Touch, but it is down 57%, and I think it'll be lucky if it ends up down less than 50% y2y. It doesn't do particularly better in the younger demographics and isn't heavily DVR'd, and unlike Pitch, which I think has a niche enough audience that it could end up being a Friday staple if it gets another go-around, Rosewood is simply too weak a show and didn't benefit from being nurtured in its first season.
New Girl is probably one of the more surprising predictions in this edition's table, but I'll explain: it's an older show now, and the ad rate and rating correlation probably applies to it now more than ever, being deep into its veteran years and a very middling performer, if that. It didn't take long at all for it to go fractional, and I would argue that it's underperforming a bit this season. Its ad rate may be boosted a bit by a relatively young skew, and it's still doing a solid 84% league average rating in A18-34, so it's not totally out and could move up to leans a renewal, but once again, the numbers will do the talking for me, and I simply think it may be too far below its target to be renewed. Plus, it no longer has much lead-in power and based on the shows they have now and the ones in development, they appear to be headed more after the male demographic in their comedy department.
Why Is Scream Queens Likely to be Tricked to a Cancelation?
Last season, I get it. It had great C3 boosts, people streamed it, it got a ton of social media buzz...but at least last season its L+SD ratings were mediocre enough. It still gets that young skew, which could work out in its favor, but even then, that A18-34 demo rating being at 72%, albeit a huge jump from the 50% of the league average in A18-49, is still very paltry, with it still being nearly a flop in 18-34. And total viewers don't really matter, but I do think we should just stop and recognize the fact that it's currently averaging 25% of the league average in total viewers. 25%. Which isn't totally bad, that's 6th place on The CW. (sarcasm detector on high)
What do you think of these predictions and the methodology? Let me know in the comments below, and be sure to share this article with your fellow ratings friends!
CBS Renew/Cancel Week 17: CIA Is About to Go On Its Final Mission + Renew/Cancel March Madness Voting Begins
This week on the CBS Renew/Cancel, good news for one freshman show may prove disastrous for another, as CBS makes its priorities clear. Plus, the CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness returns for another year!
What Does FOX's Future Look Like?
The Simpsons and Family Guy aren't the hits they used to be, getting decent ratings in the spring, but nothing great. However, they still hold up the Sunday comedy block when football isn't boosting the night, and that will likely stay the same unless Son of Zorn or Making History turn out to be powerhouses. Bob's Burgers and The Last Man on Earth also air on Sunday night, delivering acceptable ratings. On Tuesday night, New Girl could again hold up surprisingly well like it did last season, while I don't have very high expectations for Brooklyn Nine-Nine, especially since this season it will have to air at 8:00 and it will be on an otherwise female-aimed night. New comedy The Mick is also set to air on this night in 2017, which may be the network's attempt to head back into the dysfunctional family sitcoms, but will that work?
There are three comedies sure to be renewed, The Simpsons, Family Guy, and The Last Man on Earth, and fellow Sunday comedy Bob's Burgers has already been renewed. The Simpsons and Family Guy have both aired on FOX for a long time, and aren't at the level that FOX would get rid of them, while The Last Man on Earth gets acceptable ratings, is FOX-owned, and critics love it. New Girl isn't a lock for renewal, many thought that season 5 would be its last, but it held up surprisingly well. New Girl could end after this season if it doesn't hold up well, new comedies do well enough that the network decides they don't need it, or if the show decides six seasons is enough. However, it could continue if it has another small drop between seasons and FOX doesn't really have anything to replace it with. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is lower rated however, and with it completing its fourth full season, the network could very well decide they're done with the show. The only other option I see is that they decide since they've stuck with the show for four years, they'll give it a final season.
The network's two long-running animated comedies don't show any signs of ending, so the network doesn't need to worry about finding replacements for them. But if the network hopes to continue comedy on Tuesday, or really just any night that isn't Sunday, they need a New Girl replacement. The other group-of-friends types of shows FOX has tried recently haven't worked, with Weird Loners and Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life completely flopping. Maybe viewers want something else, and we will see this winter and spring if they want dysfunctional families with The Mick premiering. FOX currently has a problem with figuring out what its viewers want in comedy, with only Brooklyn Nine-Nine and The Last Man on Earth around from all of the comedies they have premiered since 2012.
FOX was very fortunate in early 2015 when Empire premiered big, and then grew from there. Of course, it has declined now since its season two premiere, but the show still gets huge ratings. Lethal Weapon will likely benefit from that as Rosewood did. Meanwhile on Monday, Gotham and Lucifer will likely continue to get decent ratings, as they did this spring while paired together. Thursday, however, doesn't look as strong, with Rosewood likely to be a huge flop at 8:00 and who knows how Pitch will do, but it's definitely incompatible with Rosewood. Also, let's not forget Scream Queens, which gets seemingly acceptable but nothing great, or even good, And new series The Exorcist will air on Fridays, and the reviews so far aren't pointing to success. This is FOX's drama slate, plus the fourth season of low-rated Sleepy Hollow and final season of long-running Bones at mid-season, along with new shows Star, Shots Fired, A.P.B, and 24: Legacy, plus a revival of Prison Break.
While I expect Empire to be down considerably from season two, it will still be big and still an easy renewal. Monday shows Gotham and Lucifer should also be able to return. Beyond this, it is more difficult to determine. Scream Queens and Sleepy Hollow got renewed this time around, so unless they drop a bit more than league average, they will probably get renewed again, as hard as that is to imagine for Sleepy Hollow. I really don't see how FOX can keep Rosewood around for a third season, because this season it will certainly be exposed for the flop that it is (unless Pitch is a big hit and Rosewood stays there all season, getting the same boost it got last year), but then again Sleepy Hollow got renewed for a fourth season despite terrible ratings, so who knows. For the new shows, I don't see Lethal Weapon or The Exorcist doing well, and I don't expect A.P.B. to either, so that leaves Pitch, Star, Shots Fried, and 24: Legacy to potentially do well, and it's really hard to say which ones will.
While FOX has many problems, finding replacements for old dramas isn't one of them. Bpnes is ending, but the network doesn't really need it anyway. Empire and Gotham are young, but the only other drama older than them is now-flop Sleepy Hollow. The network struggles off of Wednesday and Sunday on football nights, but they don't have aging veterans that need replacing like ABC and CBS do.
Taking a quick look at unscripted, FOX has reliable Hell's Kitchen and MasterChef Junior. They are also trying new Kicking & Screaming at midseason, but I think that will go the way of their recent summer unscripted attempts, which is to say, not well at all. Hell's Kitchen and MasterChef Junior, however, are solid schedule fillers however, which helps the network often on Friday nights or when flops occur.
FOX's future doesn't really look too much worse than its present, which is really disappointing for the network considering the state it's currently in. The one thing it needs to do somehow is figure out how to keep its shows from having big drops each season.
What do you think FOX's future looks like? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
What Does the CW's Future Look Like?
Supergirl has moved from CBS to the CW, where it will fit in more, with super hero shows beginning the night on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as well, I think that the show will do quite well, potentially being the CW's #2 show for the season. Meanwhile at 9:00, Jane the Virgin will likely see a boost thanks to a much improved lead-in. However, the show is still a weak one that will likely follow Nikita, Beauty and the Beast, Hart of Dixie, and most likely Reign in finishing after four seasons.
The two oldest superhero shows on the CW are strong ones, The Flash and Arrow likely to get strong ratings again for another season. Also, both shows must now launch new ones. No Tomorrow comes from the creators of Jane the Virgin, and like Jane it's a dramedy produced by CBS, so it will most likely join the low-rated CBS dramedy club. However, this one can last if it gets the acclaim that Jane the Virgin and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, and more importantly their stars Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom got. It's hard to know what to expect out of Frequency, but do remember that the CW rarely cancels shows.
The one superhero show that isn't as strong is the young Legends of Tomorrow. Luckily, this show is now getting the show that Arrow and The Flash originally got as their lead-outs as its lead-out, Supernatural. The long-running drama just can't seem to die, and it may provide help for Legends of Tomorrow as it enters its second season. Legends of Tomorrow's ratings are currently unsure, but it is highly unlikely that they will be low enough for a cancelation, if that is even possible.
The Vampire Diaries is coming to an end, and to a ratings follower four years ago, that would be a reason to be concerned for the network. Sure, Supernatural is hanging in there, and new show Arrow could be a hit, but what else does the network have? Luckily, in the time between then and now, the network got a lot, specifically high-rated The Flash, former CBS show Supergirl, and decent performers Legends of Tomorrow, Jane the Virgin, iZombie, and The 100. All of that is good enough for a ten hour network, and let's not forget that The Originals isn't a flop, even if it's not the highest rated of shows. At 9:00 on Fridays is low-rated Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, and who knows what to expect for season two, stability, flopping, or even a rise, and who knows what it is the CW needs to keep it around. Stable ratings? Continued critical acclaim? Or does reaching season 2 on the CW guarantee you 4 seasons? Who knows what the rules are on the CW, which makes it difficult to predict the fates of shows like Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, like it was difficult to predict for iZombie last year.
While other networks may be worrying how they are going to replace their old hits, that's not really a problem the CW has to deal with. The Vampire Diaries is ending, and that matters surprisingly little, and who knows if Supernatural's end is even in sight. Even if it is, the network won't be at a huge loss without it, as it isn't a huge performer, and they still have their superhero shows delivering the ratings and anchoring nights.
The CW's future is bright, because their hits are young and they have nights well anchored. The network may get lower ratings than the big four, but it's future looks better than theirs do.
What do you think the CW's future looks like? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
Hit Shows That Got Off to a Slow Start: JAG and NCIS
JAG
In order to understand NCIS's slow start, it's important to know the background. In 1995, NBC picked up a show named JAG (Judge Advocate General), a drama series about the US Navy. It premiered Saturday at 8pm, which is basically what Friday is today. It had a solid lead-out, The John Larroquette Show, which came in #42 in the season, yet incompatible. Asking a new show to lead off a Saturday is always hard business, and once NBC realized it had the inability to do so, it was moved to Wednesday at 8pm, a night which also included Dateline at 9pm and Law & Order at 10pm, both
top 30 shows. JAG was basically to NBC's Wednesday what The Mysteries of Laura is today. JAG averaged 11.56 million viewers, but only came in as #79 for the season. As such, NBC cancelled it and moved on with their lives.
But not so fast--CBS saw some potential in JAG, and picked it up to anchor Friday nights as a midseason replacement, airing after new sitcom entry Everybody Loves Raymond. The struggling Raymond didn't make it long on Friday nights, upgraded to the post-Cosby spot on Mondays, meaning that JAG took over Fridays at 8 soon thereafter. It still struggled in its second season, barely improving on its first, with an average of 11.80 million viewers and ranking #68 for the season.
Apparently CBS still saw potential in the show, giving it a better time slot (Tuesday at 8) for a third season that presumably many did not see coming. Naturally, it saw significant gains, rising to 12.90 million viewers and ranking #36 for the season. In season 4, it moved up in the rankings to #17 and 14.20 million viewers, marking the first time it cracked the top 20. For the next three seasons, rankings went up and down (#26, #15, #26) while viewership remained between 14 and 15 million for the most part. This is all despite staying in its same Tuesday time slot with no lead-in, meaning that CBS must have made a big promotional push, and word-of-mouth must have spread.
In fact, the show that ranked #79 for its first season went into season 9 with its first-ever spin-off: NCIS, which would take over its Tuesday at 8 time slot, sending JAG back to Fridays for its final two seasons.
NCIS
Unfortunately, the JAG spinoff flopped. Averaging just a 2.73, the outlook did not look bright for NCIS. According to SpottedRatings, a 2.73 in the 2003-2004 season would be equivalent to a 1.13 today. Even at its high, NCIS was only at 76% of the scripted average, and at the low, 52%. That low is even worse than Undateable relative to NBC's average today.
_logo.svg/2000px-NCIS_(TV_series)_logo.svg.png)
However, due to the network struggling overall, presumed overseas sales, and the fact that something had to face American Idol, NCIS was renewed for a 2nd season. CBS must have been at least a bit pleased at its Season 2 results--although the show was still marginal and never broke the network's average, it also rose 20% year-to-year. And another 20% in Season 3, to an average of 3.92, or about a 1.62 today. For the next two seasons after that, it remained a reliable performer, despite dropping a bit in the ratings. And all this without any lead-in support, getting the same Tuesday at 8 time slot that made it a flop in its first season.
After having an impressive Season 6, where every single rating was above average for the network, it really broke out in its seventh season, where it rose 12% in raw ratings and hit a series high of a 4.8.
That season remains its best yet in raw ratings, averaging a 4.07 in the A18-49 Live+Same Day demo. This may in part have been due to getting its very first spin-off, NCIS:LA, which aired directly after the parent show. Who would have thought that a show that flopped out of the gate, which was the spin-off of another struggling show, would get its own spin-off?
In the 2010-2011 season, it only lost 2% in raw ratings, and at that point it was really considered to be one of the biggest hits on television. Today, it despite double digit ratings declines in each of the last three seasons, the 13th(!) season of NCIS remains one of CBS's top shows. As of this publishing (January 6, 2016), NCIS is the #9 show on all of broadcast, and the #2 show on CBS, only behind The Big Bang Theory. NCIS:LA has declined hard in its move to Monday, but a second NCIS spin-off has been launched (NCIS:NO) that has done fairly well in the ratings, and just tied a series high in a crossover with the parent show. NCIS's rise is definitely one of the most remarkable in recent drama history, and I can see this show finishing with at least 15 or so seasons.
In order to understand NCIS's slow start, it's important to know the background. In 1995, NBC picked up a show named JAG (Judge Advocate General), a drama series about the US Navy. It premiered Saturday at 8pm, which is basically what Friday is today. It had a solid lead-out, The John Larroquette Show, which came in #42 in the season, yet incompatible. Asking a new show to lead off a Saturday is always hard business, and once NBC realized it had the inability to do so, it was moved to Wednesday at 8pm, a night which also included Dateline at 9pm and Law & Order at 10pm, both
But not so fast--CBS saw some potential in JAG, and picked it up to anchor Friday nights as a midseason replacement, airing after new sitcom entry Everybody Loves Raymond. The struggling Raymond didn't make it long on Friday nights, upgraded to the post-Cosby spot on Mondays, meaning that JAG took over Fridays at 8 soon thereafter. It still struggled in its second season, barely improving on its first, with an average of 11.80 million viewers and ranking #68 for the season.
Apparently CBS still saw potential in the show, giving it a better time slot (Tuesday at 8) for a third season that presumably many did not see coming. Naturally, it saw significant gains, rising to 12.90 million viewers and ranking #36 for the season. In season 4, it moved up in the rankings to #17 and 14.20 million viewers, marking the first time it cracked the top 20. For the next three seasons, rankings went up and down (#26, #15, #26) while viewership remained between 14 and 15 million for the most part. This is all despite staying in its same Tuesday time slot with no lead-in, meaning that CBS must have made a big promotional push, and word-of-mouth must have spread.
In fact, the show that ranked #79 for its first season went into season 9 with its first-ever spin-off: NCIS, which would take over its Tuesday at 8 time slot, sending JAG back to Fridays for its final two seasons.
NCIS
Unfortunately, the JAG spinoff flopped. Averaging just a 2.73, the outlook did not look bright for NCIS. According to SpottedRatings, a 2.73 in the 2003-2004 season would be equivalent to a 1.13 today. Even at its high, NCIS was only at 76% of the scripted average, and at the low, 52%. That low is even worse than Undateable relative to NBC's average today.
However, due to the network struggling overall, presumed overseas sales, and the fact that something had to face American Idol, NCIS was renewed for a 2nd season. CBS must have been at least a bit pleased at its Season 2 results--although the show was still marginal and never broke the network's average, it also rose 20% year-to-year. And another 20% in Season 3, to an average of 3.92, or about a 1.62 today. For the next two seasons after that, it remained a reliable performer, despite dropping a bit in the ratings. And all this without any lead-in support, getting the same Tuesday at 8 time slot that made it a flop in its first season.After having an impressive Season 6, where every single rating was above average for the network, it really broke out in its seventh season, where it rose 12% in raw ratings and hit a series high of a 4.8.
That season remains its best yet in raw ratings, averaging a 4.07 in the A18-49 Live+Same Day demo. This may in part have been due to getting its very first spin-off, NCIS:LA, which aired directly after the parent show. Who would have thought that a show that flopped out of the gate, which was the spin-off of another struggling show, would get its own spin-off?
In the 2010-2011 season, it only lost 2% in raw ratings, and at that point it was really considered to be one of the biggest hits on television. Today, it despite double digit ratings declines in each of the last three seasons, the 13th(!) season of NCIS remains one of CBS's top shows. As of this publishing (January 6, 2016), NCIS is the #9 show on all of broadcast, and the #2 show on CBS, only behind The Big Bang Theory. NCIS:LA has declined hard in its move to Monday, but a second NCIS spin-off has been launched (NCIS:NO) that has done fairly well in the ratings, and just tied a series high in a crossover with the parent show. NCIS's rise is definitely one of the most remarkable in recent drama history, and I can see this show finishing with at least 15 or so seasons.
NBC Renew/Cancel 2019-20 Wrap Up: A Look at the Hits and Misses
NBC has finally made their final renewal decision of the 2019-20 season, with the cancellation of Council of Dads coming earlier today. That means it's time for my 2019-20 season Renew/Cancel wrap-up. It was a long season, with final decisions arriving nearly two months later than usual, but it's finally over. Keep reading to see what my record for the season is, and read my thoughts on the season that was. Below is my full chart of predictions for the season, with every show placed exactly where I last left them before their fates were decided.
New Show Hit/Miss Fall 2016 - The Good Place
What May Cause The Good Place to be a Hit?
Premiering after the season premiere of The Voice
Not only does it get to premiere after The Voice, but it premieres after what will likely be the highest rated episode of The Voice this season. Superstore likely benefited from this sort of exposure last season, and it didn't even get the premiere.
Similar comedic style to Superstore
In Superstore, everyone is a little bit odd and messed-up. The Good Place is an odd place, and Kristen Bell's character is definitely messed-up, so these two shows could share a similar audience. I know that in my family, the same people who enjoy Superstore are looking forward to The Good Place, and those who don't like Superstore don't think that The Good Place looks good.
The viewers Superstore could gain
The better a lead-in it has, the better that The Good Place could do. There are possibly many people who hadn't heard of or decided to wait on Superstore, as it aired for only eight weeks on Mondays at 8:00. A lot of promotion, especially during the Olympics, and an Olympics episode could result in Superstore getting higher ratings than expected, and The Good Place doing better as a result.
Positive reception to the trailer
At the time of this late-May article, The Good Place has the highest like/dislike ratio of the new NBC shows, 91, and the third highest among all of the fall's half-hour sitcoms, only behind Speechless and Son of Zorn.
Kristen Bell and Ted Danson
We all know that well-known stars can't make a series a hit. But, they can draw attention to the show that wouldn't otherwise be there, and the people that the attention draws may stick around, so who knows, this could help.
What May Cause The Good Place to be a Miss for NBC?
Since The Office ended, NBC comedy on Thursday hasn't worked
All five of the new comedies tried in-season on NBC Thursday since The Office ended were canceled after one season (Welcome to the Family, The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, A to Z, Bad Judge). Most of those aired in the 9:00 hour, which has been better to NBC comedy than the 8:00 hour, thanks to The Big Bang Theory. In 2013-14, Community and Parks and Recreation aired there. The former was canceled, while the latter got a short final season, which got sort of burned off between The Voice cycles on Tuesday. Superstore and The Good Place only get five weeks to air before CBS comedy comes to Thursday.
It's not a workplace comedy
Comedy has really not worked recently on NBC, and that is because they have mostly stayed away from what their viewers obviously want, workplace comedies. What was their most recent big hit? The Office. What one comedy is returning to their fall schedule? Superstore. As this recent article points out, NBC's comedy comfort zone is workplace comedy, which The Good Place is not.
The premise is odd
This is a show about a woman who goes to a heaven-like place even though she doesn't belong there. While this show may seem interesting to you, the premise is odd. And odd often translates to shows with low ratings. What recent comedies have been odd? Angel from Hell, Galavant, You, Me and the Apocalypse. All three of those shows were odd, and all ended up low rated and/or canceled.
Not many people have seen the trailer
Despite the fact that the trailer received positive reception, it has been much less viewed than the trailers for Timeless or This is Us. Looking at the same article from before, those other two shows have three to four times the number of views that The Good Place has. People need to know a show exists to watch it.
What to Expect for The Good Place?
I think that the biggest factors will be that it is airing on Thursday and that the premise is odd, though positive reception to the trailer will keep it from being a total flop. My prediction is that its run on Thursday will be in the low 1s at first, and then dip lower when up against The Great Indoors. I think that NBC will then dump it in favor of one of their midseason comedies, as they do have many of them.
Which factors do you think with be in play the most in causing The Good Place to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
FOX Renew/Cancel Week 1: Lethal Ratings ?
Premiere week is already over and all we can say is that it was a pretty good one for FOX. Here are my predictions for FOX shows including newbies The Cool Kids and Rel.
The Resident: The medical drama returned with a 1.1 matching its highest Monday ratings from last season. This year it has 9-1-1 as lead-out which probably helped it. Of course we have to wait and see how it does in the coming weeks but, so far, it looks good to return in for a third season.
9-1-1: The show did amanzingly well last season and the network decided to move it to Monday 9PM. 9-1-1 had a two-night premiere on September 23rd and September 24th. Both episodes did very well (2.6 on Sunday, 1.6 on Monday). The Ryan Murphy drama is certain to return in 2019-2020.
The Gifted: In May, FOX announced that the Marvel show would move to Tuesday 8/7c in the fall. Honestly I didn't think it was a good idea. The Gifted did good for its first season but nothing spectacular. It was off the air for eight months and returned on Tuesday with a 0.9 which is not bad all things considered. I'm not optimistic though as it has to stay steady all season long in order to get renewed.
Lethal Weapon: After losing one of its lead in May, Lethal Weapon returned on Tuesday with a mediocre 0.8. It matched season two finale but was down 32% year-to-year. Being owned by Warner won't help it and I would be surprised if it gets renewed (or even a backorder).
Empire: Empire is far from the monster it once was but still one of the strongest drama on television. The fifth season premiere averaged a 1.95 among adults 18-49 (down 20% vs last season premiere). Unless it goes fractional, there's no reason to cancel it.
Star: While it's getting pretty good ratings, it looks like FOX is done with it. Star was almost cancelled in May and season 3 is likely the show's last. It premiered with a 1.45 on Wednesday (out of Empire's 1.95) but it's expensive and I think that's why it's getting cancelled.
Last Man Standing: In May, FOX revived the former ABC's comedy Last Man Standing. A lot of us thought it would bomb but it premiered with very strong ratings (1.8 A18-49 and 8.13 million viewers). It has to fall a lot to be in any danger.
The Cool Kids: I always thought it would premiere fractional and... it didn't. It's even this season #1 new comedy (I'm not counting Last Man Standing). The Cool Kids has a strong and compatible lead-in but we never know. I think it's getting renewed as long as it doesn't fall into mid 0s.
The Simpsons: I don't know what to say. The Simpsons entered its 30th season and got a 1.4 (even with last season's premiere). No way FOX gets rid of it in the near future.
Bob's Burgers: It aired at 7:30 for many years and now its sandwiched between The Simpsons and Family Guy. Its premiere got a 1.1 which is a bit disappointing but far from bad. It's safe.
Family Guy: Family Guy is still one of FOX's strongest shows. It was cancelled once but it's now too valuable for the network to end it. Honestly, I can see it lasting for a very long time.
Rel: While the other Sunday shows are hits, Rel is a flop. It got a 1.9 post-Football but only a 0.8 after Family Guy. It has to be very steady to get a backorder. FOX will air all its episodes and then replace it by something else.
CERTAIN TO BE CANCELLED
None
LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED
Lethal Weapon
Rel
Star
ON THE BUBBLE
The Gifted
LIKELY TO BE RENEWED
The Resident
Last Man Standing
The Cool Kids
CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED
The Simpsons
Bob's Burgers
Family Guy
Empire
9-1-1
What Does NBC's Future Look Like?
NBC has been facing a major struggle in recent seasons in a particular area, comedy. The network headed into the 2013-14 season with the hope that Parks and Recreation would hold up the network's comedic slate, and that they would find new hits in one or more of Welcome to the Family, Sean Saves the World, The Michael J. Fox Show, About a Boy, or Growing Up Fisher. However, Parks and Recreation only did okay up against CBS's huge hit comedy The Big Bang Theory, and only About a Boy out of those five new series was renewed. The following season would have Parks and Recreation quickly end its run with 13 episodes aired over 7 weeks and About a Boy fail in its second season, ultimately getting pulled from the schedule. Additionally, all three of the network's in-season new comedies failed. All NBC was left with was Undateable, which aired during the summer almost as a burn off in its first season, and ran for 10 episodes after The Voice in its second season. In the fall of 2015, NBC learned that Undateable truly didn't have even a decent-sized audience, even with the attraction of airing live each week. Similar to Undateable, NBC is trying to make The Carmichael Show work, after a somewhat successful first season after America's Got Talent, and decent ratings following new unscripted hit Little Big Shots in its second season, but weeks where Carmichael aired with a small lead-in in season two showed that it is a flop, even though it will be entering season three this upcoming season. Why is this NBC comedy history important in an article about the future of the network? Because it shows what the network has been facing, why they must be so grateful for Superstore, and how desperately the network needs another hit comedy.
Superstore isn't a big hit, but its solid ratings in season one in an unusual timeslot gives NBC a lot of hope. It is vital to NBC that the show performs well this season, and that it isn't affected too much when The Big Bang Theory shows up a few weeks into the season. But the network can't rely on one solidly performing comedy, which is why it is important that one of the network's four new single-camera comedies this season performs well. Personally, I think that Great News and Powerless have the best shot at being this show, and NBC would be very lucky if both earned solid ratings. Luckily, comedies aren't filling up NBC's schedule, with only one hour of comedy in the fall, so if the new shows fail, NBC isn't in the situation where they have holes to fill. But NBC can't rely on The Voice and Dick Wolf's shows forever, and the network whose past includes Cheers, Seinfeld, Friends, and The Office can't just give up on comedy.
Like comedy, Dick Wolf has a major presence in the past of NBC, and that remains true in the present. He has four shows returning to the network this fall: Chicago Fire, Law & Order: SVU, Chicago PD, and Chicago Med. These procedurals make up half of the network's returning dramas. The first three are all sure to rate well and get renewed. Chicago Med is entering its second season, and is moving to a much more difficult timeslot, so it isn't certain like the others, but it is still very likely to get renewed. There is one more Dick Wolf show coming to the network this season. Chicago Justice is set to begin at mid-season, currently scheduled for Sundays at 9:00. Considering the success of the rest of the Chicago franchise, it is likely to perform well. These shows are mostly young (the exception being the very old SVU) and likely to last long.
The other half of the network's returning dramas aren't quite as successful. The Blacklist performs decently, and should be able to get renewed for a fifth season. But the other three can't be as sure about their fates. Blindspot is likely to perform poorly in its new timeslot, and Shades of Blue is a mystery, as it is currently intended to air in a difficult timeslot, but Chicago Justice could be the perfect lead-in. Also, Shades of Blue was very stable in another very difficult timeslot for NBC. Meanwhile, Grimm doesn't need to worry because it is scheduled to end this season.
Unlike other networks, NBC may need a more than quick look at unscripted. Currently, The Voice is still a hit. But how long will that last? The show has been on the decline, and we have to wonder how expensive it is with four judges who are popular singers. The Voice's end isn't that soon, but it could be soon enough to start worrying, considering that it takes up three hours of the network's schedule and provides great lead-in support to shows on Monday at 10:00 and Tuesday at 9:00. NBC's schedule is also filled by Dateline and football, the former of which is a reliable performer on lower rated nights, and the latter of which gets huge ratings. I don't know the details of NBC's Sunday Night Football deal, but losing Sunday Night Football at some point would be a huge loss for the network.
The only aging show the network needs to worry about replacing is The Voice, which means that this is a good place for NBC to grow from. In particular, they need to grow their comedy slate. If they can do that, the future of the network is bright.
What do you think NBC's future looks like? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
2015-16 Freshmen Class: How Did They Do? Tables + Analysis
ABC
CBS
The CW
FOX
NBC
What’s Trending on Streaming: Daily Trending Lists for Hulu, Disney+, Peacock, Paramount+ and Max from May 11-May 17
It's been another busy week on streaming, with several new entries and the finales of multiple top performers across the streamers. Keep reading to see what was trending on Hulu, Disney+, Peacock, Paramount+ and Max for the last week.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)