FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: And Another One Bites The Dust--Freshmen Comedy Edition

Canceled	Certatin to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Renewed
Minority Report	Bordertown	Sleepy Hollow	Grandfathered	Rosewood	Family Guy	The Simpsons
	Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life			The X-Files	Lucifer	Bob’s Burgers
	The Grinder				New Girl	Empire
	Second Chance					Scream Queens
						Bones
						Gotham
						Brooklyn 9-9
						The Last Man On Earth

Why Is Bordertown "Certain to be Canceled"?

LA Times

After miserably low ratings in the post-Family Guy time slot and being shoved to 7pm without a renewal announced, I had Bordertown as a certain cancelation. It showed promise rising from week 1
to week 2 despite the football boost more or less being over by the time it aired, and for holding surprisingly well at its move to 7pm--even at just a 0.8. I have heard people say that NASCAR could have been boosting it, though I can't find any NASCAR ratings so I'm not sure if it's true.

Anyways, NASCAR or not, it slipped all the way down to a 0.4 A18-49 rating (M18-34 will probably be no higher than a 0.5). Here's a little song that might describe FOX's freshmen comedies of the season:

Why Is Grandfathered Still in the "Watching" Column?

This is great news for Grandfathered if they intend on renewing a freshmen comedy. Though, they could easily cancel it and PR Scream Queens as their comedy renewal (after all, it would be the #2 comedy on cable everyone (!!!)). Grandfathered would be an easy cancellation call if it wasn't for the three even bigger flops they premiered this season. That's the sole reason why it's still in the "Watching" column.

FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Rosewood Without Empire + Upgrades for Sleepy Hollow and Bordertown

Canceled	Certatin to be Canceled	Likely to be Canceled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed	Certain to be Renewed on Some Platform	Renewed
Minority Report	Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life	Bordertown	Rosewood	The Last Man On Earth	Family Guy	Brooklyn 9-9	The Simpsons
	The Grinder	Grandfathered	Sleepy Hollow	Lucifer	Gotham		Bob’s Burgers
	Second Chance			The X-Files	New Girl		Empire
							Scream Queens
							Bones

Rosewood without Empire
Earlier in the season, I looked into the male/female 18-34 demographics for the FOX shows, as provided by Programming Insider. I had concluded that Rosewood was a younger-skewing show in the company of Empire, Scream Queens, and the animated comedies, and I was a fool for doing so. Those W18-34 folks who had made Rosewood look really young-skewing? Yeah, most of them were just pre-tuning in to Empire. Take a look at recent data points:

December 2, 2015
A18-49: 1.5
W18-34: 1.5

March 2, 2016
A18-49: 0.9
W18-34: 0.7

As is seen, the A18-49 numbers really suffered without the Empire pre-tune, but the W18-34 numbers suffered even more. This shows just how much of the audience we thought was watching Rosewood actually "half-watched" and were waiting for the clock to strike 9:00. If it's fractional now, it's going to remain fractional next season if it doesn't get that Empire pre-tune, and as the W18-34 decline shows, it's "real" audience isn't exactly compatible with Empire either. With Bones and Scream Queens already renewed, can FOX take another low-rated drama on their schedule next season? It would be a waste to not let another show take a Wednesday time slot, yet it would most likely suffer on another night. It's relatively cheap to advertise on the show right now, but freshmen ad rates are less telling than veteran ones and we don't really know what FOX is willing to tolerate. Also worth noting is with the show not being as young-skewing as I once thought, chances are it doesn't get the biggest boost online, and never really saw a big delayed viewing boost.

Upgrades for Sleepy Hollow and Bordertown
Sleepy Hollow really has overachieved on Fridays, settling around the 0.8 area. When you consider Friday's lowest viewing levels in general, that's actually stronger than it performed on Thursdays. It's also been pointed out to me that the show has been getting a recent boost in promotion, such as a NASDAQ deal that essentially made Sleepy Hollow the face of FOX for a day, and that FOX

FOX

probably wouldn't be doing this to a show that has already finished production that they didn't intend to bring back. With no more American Idol, as well as the fact that they could hit a nice syndication or streaming deal for the show soon, Sleepy Hollow has more of a chance now than ever. It's also worth note that, yes, FOX hasn't renewed more than 4 dramas in recent years, they've already renewed 3 and Gotham is obviously the 4th. But considering that Scream Queens and Bones both have very short orders (essentially they could time share), and even Empire doesn't do full 22s, FOX could always renew more shows but order less episodes. As mentioned before by FOX, streaming deals can be as valuable if not MORE valuable to some of their shows than traditional syndication.

Bordertown, meanwhile, just recently overachieved in its Sunday at 7 time slot during Daylight Savings Time, notching a 0.8 A18-49 rating (M18-34 number yet to come). Some say that it has been helped by the NASCAR races earlier in the day, but considering this show has hit a 0.7 in its post-Family Guy time slot, that isn't all that bad. I am still calling a cancellation; just not as certain as before. Keep in mind if it is renewed, don't expect it until late spring next season, and for a short season. It takes time to animate shows.

Update on The Last Man On Earth
The Last Man On Earth returned to a 1.1 A18-49 rating and a 0.9 M18-34 rating, and held the bulk of the Family Guy lead-in. In fact, more than the seemingly-much-more-compatible Bordertown. And it stayed steady at that number in week 2, which is pretty impressive for a serialized show, even if it's a half-hour comedy. Creatively the show has no signs of slowing down, FOX is increasing the number of shows with the production company, and the show has been nominated for numerous awards. On top of that, streaming deals will want a proper ending, and if any given episode of Last Man is an indicator, we're getting a cliffhanger at the end of the season. Combine that with the fact that FOX's comedy situation in whole is dire, and I see no reason why they wouldn't renew it.

What's Next?
Lucifer has been hanging in there in the Likely to be Renewed category for its entire run, but if it does good enough tonight, expect it to land in the Certain to be Renewed category.

FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Bordertown and Cooper Barrett are Now Certain to be Cancelled

Why Are Bordertown and Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life Certain to be Cancelled?
I legitimately thought both, Bordertown more than Cooper Barrett, had a chance at renewal last time I did my FOX Renew/Cancel Watch column. But a 0.7? That's really bad, and I highly doubt FOX can justify renewing two comedies that go that low this early in their run given the time slots. On top of that, Bordertown is headed to 7pm soon. I still hold out hope that FOX will swap Cooper Barrett and the stronger Bob's Burgers.

Why Am I Watching Grandfathered?
In my eyes, Grandfathered really needs to improve to at least a 1.1-1.2 in order to get a renewal, given that it airs after New Girl and still gets somewhat underwhelming ratings. However, the downfall of Cooper Barrett and Bordertown may just work out in Grandfathered's favor, as is the fact that it's really doing on par with Brooklyn 9-9 now (though that's more bad for the latter than good for the former). I still think that FOX will do the normal and renew 6 comedies, but if The Last Man On Earth comes back and tanks, it may just be Grandfathered's lucky day.

Why is Bones Likely to be Cancelled?
It was recently announced that Bones will not return until April 14. It still has 12 episodes left to air, meaning that if they air it straight through, one hour a week, it still won't finish until June 30. This is about four weeks later than last season and six after the "official" season ends. Strangely enough it did just fine in the summer last season; however, given its age and contractual negotiations, not to mention the low ratings, I'm willing to bet that Bones is too expensive to continue. I thought about the scenario of giving it another season to air in the summer, but again I think it would be too expensive. It may make a good pairing with Wayward Pines in June if that's the route FOX takes, but I'm sticking with a likely cancellation prediction. As it is I'm already predicting more dramas to be renewed than they have in the decade so far.

Why Was Rosewood Downgraded to Likely to be Renewed?
I do think that right now Rosewood looks renewable, but the fact that Lucifer has been doing decently and that FOX hasn't renewed 5 dramas in a long time makes me a little bit more unsure of Rosewood. It could face the chopping block if Lucifer holds and FOX decides to replace American Idol with all reality, but I still think it gets renewed. Scream Queens taking up a renewal definitely makes it more complicated, but I think it's here to stay. I'm just not as sure of it right now as much as I was before Lucifer entered the scene.

What's Next?
With Gotham returning on February 29 (yes, that's a day this year!), I'll probably get a better sense at how Lucifer can perform. If it holds in the mid 1s, I'm willing to upgrade it to a certain renewal, and if it tanks, it's probably gone and Rosewood is safer than safe. A prediction down grade for Sleepy Hollow is also probable.

Cooper Barrett, Bordertown, and Galavant Premiere Really Low

FOX

Things are not looking good for new FOX comedies Cooper Barrett's Guide to Surviving Life and Bordertown. Cooper Barrett premiered to a 1.2 in the all-important A18-49 demographic, and Bordertown a 1.1.

Other Sunday ratings include the season premiere of Galavant (0.9), and regular episodes of The Simpsons (2.0) and Family Guy (1.7).

Will they finish out their episode orders in these prime time slots? Or will The Last Man On Earth come back earlier than expected? Leave your thoughts below!