Summer Renew/Cancel Week 5: Another Week, Another Flop CW Premiere

The Summer Renew/Cancel took a few weeks off, but it's back now with plenty of updates, including initial predictions for multiple shows on The CW and Hollywood Game Night, as well as prediction changes for a few reality shows. Stay tuned for those predictions and more!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:
The InBetween (0.4)
Instinct (0.3)
Paradise Hotel (0.4)
Reef Break (0.4)
What Just Happened??! with Fred Savage (0.2)

Likely to be Canceled:
Family Food Fight (0.5)

Leans Cancellation:
First Responders Live (0.5)
Grand Hotel (0.6)
Love Island (0.5)
NCIS: The Cases They Can't Forget (0.3)
Spin The Wheel (0.6)

Leans Renewal:
The Big Stage (0.1)
Bring The Funny (1.0)
Holey Moley (0.8)
Hollywood Game Night (0.5)
My Last Days (0.1)
The Outpost (0.1)
Pandora (0.1)
Songland (0.9)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.5)
Whistleblower (0.4)

Likely to be Renewed:
Beat Shazam (0.6)
Card Sharks (0.7)

Certain to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (0.8)
American Ninja Warrior (0.9)
America's Got Talent (1.6)
The Bachelorette (1.5)
Big Brother (1.0)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.9)
MasterChef (0.7)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Match Game (0.7)
Press Your Luck (0.8)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.2)
To Tell The Truth (0.7)
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.2)

Fate Determined:
Agents of SHIELD (Renewed)
Blood & Treasure (Renewed)
Burden of Truth (Renewed)
Elementary (Final Season)
iZombie (Final Season)

Yet to Premiere:
Bachelor In Paradise
Hypnotize Me
Mysteries Decoded
Red Bull Peaking
Two Sentence Horror Stories
What Would You Do?

The Outpost and Pandora: It's hard to do any analysis of The CW anymore, as they renewed about everything last season. However, things are changing at the network as the Netflix deal expires, putting into question whether they'll continue issuing renewals to everything and anything. At this point, none of their summer shows really look all that different from one another, so it's hard to say which of them they'll renew. Last season they renewed every summer show and they just may do it again. I'll give The Outpost and Pandora the benefit of the doubt and say they'll both be back next season, but I'm not confident about it. They both LEAN RENEWAL.

Hollywood Game Night: Hollywood Game night hasn't gotten the best treatment from its network in the past few years, going from the post-AGT slot (where, admittedly, it did not do well) to airing after repeats of The Wall after a year off the air (save for one-off specials). This has led to some very weak performances in the three weeks it's been back on the air, performances that don't exactly demand a renewal. The show's still a long-time part of the NBC schedule and it's gotten Emmy attention for them, so I don't see them just canceling it this year, but it wouldn't exactly be unwarranted and I'm not certain of its return. It LEANS RENEWAL.

Holey Moley: What started out as one of summer's biggest success stories has lost a lot of steam in recent weeks, randomly dropping to 0.6 a few weeks ago and staying there the week after. I was fully prepared to upgrade it to a certain renewal (as I did with Press Your Luck in the last update), but now I'm doing the opposite. This is a worrying trend for the show, and it's following in the pattern of previous ABC summer shows like Boy Band and The Gong Show, dropping to low numbers after a solid start. It's not a disaster (yet) like those two shows, but if it keeps dropping, ABC might just pull the plug. However, it remains by far the brightest spot of ABC's disastrous Thursday lineup this summer, so it LEANS RENEWAL yet.

Spin the Wheel: Another show that started above expectations is this Fox game show, which was doing solid retention out of MasterChef for a few weeks before it started looking weaker and weaker. At a 0.5, the show isn't really higher than shows like First Responders Live or So You Think You Can Dance, which both have more going for them than Spin The Wheel does. I don't really like to make such a big prediction change, but Spin the Wheel is now LEANING CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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