CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders' Returns

Welcome to the TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of March 10, 2017.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.8 / 3.8 / 3.27	-12.4%
2	NCIS	1.6 / 2.2 / 1.82	-17.8%
3	Kevin Can Wait	1.3 / 2.7 / 1.76	--
4	The Great Indoors	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.55	--
5	Bull	1.3 / 2.2 / 1.53	--
6	Mom	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.45	-14.1%
7	Criminal Minds	1.2 / 1.9 / 1.42	-21.3%
8	NCIS: LA	1.0 / 1.7 / 1.40	+5.8%
9	Superior Donuts	1.2 / 1.9 / 1.38	--
10	2 Broke Girls	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.37	-14.9%
11	Man with a Plan	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.34	--
12	Life in Pieces	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.30	-35.0%
13	Scorpion	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.24	-30.2%
14	NCIS: New Orleans	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.22	-30.4%
15	Hawaii Five-0	1.1 / 1.4 / 1.20	+5.5%
16	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.20	-3.3%
17	MacGyver	0.9 / 1.7 / 1.12	--
18	The Odd Couple	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.02	-27.3%
19	Code Black	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.97	-23.5%
20	Madam Secretary	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.94	-21.6%
21	Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders	- / 0.9 / 0.90	-21.6%
22	Pure Genius	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.86	--
23	Training Day	0.7 / 0.9 / 0.75	--
24	Elementary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.68	-29.5%
-	Doubt	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.68	--
26	Ransom	0.3 / 0.8 / 0.45	--

Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders premiered its second season to a 0.9 in the A18-49 demo on Wednesday night. There are a few ways to evaluate this result. First, it's down 44 percent from CM:BB's season one premiere last year (1.6), down 10 percent from its season one finale (1.0), and down 27 percent from its season one average. While it's inarguably down compared to its own stats, it is better than both of Doubt's episodes in the slot a few weeks ago (0.8 for E1, 0.6 for E2), which was promptly removed from the schedule after its second airing. Lastly, the premiere rating was down slightly from Code Black's average in the slot this past fall (0.97), and matches the medical drama's season two finale rating from February 8, 2017. 
The renewal of CM:BB was born largely in the absence of solid drama development last season, with Limitless and Rush Hour cancelled, Supergirl renewed but moved to The CW, and Code Black being the only freshman drama given a second shot, contingent on a modified cast. CBS likely renewed the Criminal Minds spinoff as a safety net for another weak drama slate, but this year they ended up getting Bull and MacGyver, even if Pure Genius, Training Day, and Doubt didn't work. The truth is that they really don't need Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders, especially if its second season is already starting off fractional. There's already a case against keeping Code Black around, but while both are owned by the network, that show seems to have more confidence behind it, aired both of its seasons in the fall, and has more episodes produced. However, the advantage a recognizable brand spinoff like this one has is potential international syndication value, which is what kept CSI: Cyber afloat for two seasons. 
As it's only aired one episode this season, I'm placing Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders On the Bubble. More airings will indicate whether it's intending on fighting a show like Code Black for a renewal. I'm still banking on the idea that CBS will just scrap CM:BB and use Code Black on Sundays next season, even though the latter barely made it by last year and perhaps its luck ends this season. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Doubt' Disappears

Welcome to the second edition of the TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of February 24, 2017.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.8 / 3.8 / 3.29	-11.7%
2	NCIS	1.6 / 2.2 / 1.83	-17.3%
3	Kevin Can Wait	1.3 / 2.7 / 1.75	--
4	The Great Indoors	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.56	--
5	Bull	1.3 / 2.2 / 1.53	--
6	Superior Donuts	1.2 / 1.9 / 1.47	--
7	Mom	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.45	-14.0%
8	Criminal Minds	1.2 / 1.9 / 1.42	-20.7%
9	NCIS: LA	1.0 / 1.7 / 1.41	+6.5%
10	2 Broke Girls	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.38	-14.3%
11	Man with a Plan	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.35	--
12	Life in Pieces	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.30	-34.9%
13	Scorpion	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.24	-29.8%
14	NCIS: New Orleans	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.23	-30.0%
15	Hawaii Five-0	1.1 / 1.4 / 1.21	+6.4%
16	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.20	-3.5%
17	MacGyver	0.9 / 1.7 / 1.13	--
18	The Odd Couple	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.02	-27.3%
19	Code Black	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.97	-23.5%
20	Madam Secretary	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.95	-20.6%
21	Pure Genius	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.86	--
22	Training Day	0.7 / 0.9 / 0.77	--
23	Elementary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.68	-29.0%
-	Doubt	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.68	--
25	Ransom	0.3 / 0.8 / 0.46	--

Doubt dropped two tenths from its premiere to a 0.6 rating in the key demo on Wednesday night. This prompted CBS to drop it from the schedule effectively immediately, with the second season of Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders set to take over the 10:00 slot on Wednesdays in two weeks. While it's not a completely official cancellation, it's as clear as it gets that CBS is done with the series after two very poor results and a 0.68 average. As such, I'm downgrading Doubt from Likely to be Canceled to Already Canceled in the table. This is the first show to get this classification this season for CBS and makes a correct prediction for the CBS Renew/Cancel.

CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Doubt' Likely to be Canceled

Welcome to the second edition of the TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of February 18, 2016.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.8 / 3.8 / 3.33	-10.9%
2	NCIS	1.7 / 2.2 / 1.84	-16.6%
3	Kevin Can Wait	1.3 / 2.7 / 1.77	--
4	Superior Donuts	1.3 / 1.9 / 1.56	--
5	The Great Indoors	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.56	--
6	Bull	1.3 / 2.2 / 1.55	--
7	Mom	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.46	-13.9%
8	Criminal Minds	1.2 / 1.9 / 1.43	-20.1%
9	NCIS: LA	1.0 / 1.7 / 1.43	+8.1%
10	2 Broke Girls	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.39	-13.7%
11	Man with a Plan	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.35	--
12	Life in Pieces	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.31	-34.6%
13	Scorpion	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25	-29.6%
14	NCIS: New Orleans	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.23	-29.6%
15	Hawaii Five-0	1.1 / 1.4 / 1.21	+5.8%
16	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.20	-3.2%
17	MacGyver	0.9 / 1.7 / 1.13	--
18	The Odd Couple	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.02	-27.3%
19	Code Black	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.97	-23.5%
20	Madam Secretary	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.95	-20.6%
21	Pure Genius	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.86	--
22	Doubt	- / 0.8 / 0.80	--
23	Training Day	0.7 / 0.9 / 0.80	--
24	Elementary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.68	-29.0%
25	Ransom	0.3 / 0.8 / 0.47	--

The new Katherine Heigl legal drama Doubt premiered this week to an anemic 0.8 in the demo, down 38.5 percent from its Criminal Minds lead-in (which should really retire into the 10pm slot next year). There weren't great expectations for the new drama, which joins Training Day as another failed midseason attempt. With a slim chance for improvement in the weeks to come, Doubt starts as Likely to be Canceled and will be downgraded to Certain if next week's result is in similar fractional territory.

Speaking of Training Day, the adaptation of the hit movie premiered to a 0.9 three weeks ago and has since declined to a 0.8 and 0.7 in subsequent airings, respectively. What worked for FOX's Lethal Weapon clearly didn't translate for CBS. It's Certain to be Canceled.

Despite dropping six tenths from its special Thursday premiere to a 1.3 last week, Superior Donuts ticked up a tenth to a 1.4 this week. That's about in line with how Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan have performed on many weeks, and it's slightly below what The Great Indoors pulls in on Thursdays behind The Big Bang Theory. While CBS's revisit to a 2-hour comedy block on Mondays is arguably performing lower than what they would hope for, it's doing well enough to probably get all three freshman renewed, if CBS intends to keep these hours the same next season. As of now, I predict Superior Donuts as Likely to be Renewed.

As a result, The Odd Couple and 2 Broke Girls have never looked worse off. The former remains Certain to be Canceled in the index after finishing its third, limited season with a 1.02 average. There's been talk that it's not completely dead and could return for a fourth season, but I remain highly skeptical that it's anything beyond maintaining a positive image for the network until upfronts. With 2 Broke Girls, CBS has a sixth season show doing roughly the same week-to-week as two freshman (Man with a Plan, Superior Donuts) and a sophomore (Life in Pieces). CBS has hit a point where they need to develop new players to take over for the aging Big Bang in two or so years. While it's been a good utility player, CBS doesn't own it and it really doesn't need it. CBS arguably needed Mike & Molly more than they need 2 Broke Girls, yet they cancelled that prematurely last season after six seasons. As long as the other comedies keep performing as they are, I'm being cautious with 2 Broke Girls' chances and am leaving it as Likely to be Canceled.

Lastly, I have decided to upgrade Mom to Certain to be Renewed. I should've made this prediction sooner but I've been fairly cautious overall with comedy until everything premiered and had a chance to show its worth to the network. There's no denying that Mom continues to put in the work for CBS and it shows for it. It's still young, currently in its fourth season, and it gets major awards attention for the network. It may have more of a fight for renewal in the coming seasons, but it's definitely safe for now. It doesn't really have the power to launch new shows at this point, but it can help keep up the average of the night whether it's on Thursdays again or Mondays next season.