ABC: The Winners and Losers

Welcome to the first edition of "The Winners and Losers", where I take a look back at ABC's 2015-16 television season and access which shows were the biggest winners and which shows could have done better.

WINNERS

Grey's Anatomy
After years of trouble in the Thursday at 8pm time slot, ABC saw its second straight season of success there with Grey's Anatomy. It's currently ABC's #2 scripted show, averaging a 2.23 A18-49 rating, and is down just over 6% year-to-year--less than almost every other show on broadcast. It's skewing slightly older this season, as shown by the fact that it's lost less than 2% of its total viewers. It's been clear for a while that when this ends, it'll be a Shonda decision and not a Mouse decision.

The Bachelor
The Bachelor is perhaps the show on broadcast television people most love-to-hate, because for all the people who complain about the show, it's still UP (0.31%) year-to-year, which is something no other ABC show can say. It averaged a 2.36, making it ABC's #2 show and #1 non-scripted show. Not bad for a bridge series airing its 19th cycle.

The Little Comedies That Could
Rounding out the winners list for ABC are "the little comedies that could". I'm referring to The Middle, The Goldbergs, and Last Man Standing, all of which were by and large marginal renewals that some questioned when they made it into a second season. The Middle and The Goldbergs have blossomed into hits, with both doing better in ratings relative to other shows than ever before. The Goldbergs is currently averaging a 2.03, down less than 7% year-to-year and remaining ABC's #2 comedy and #4 scripted show. The Middle is just a tad behind it at a 1.91, down a little over 4%. It's ABC's #3 comedy and #5 scripted show overall, showing how strong ABC's comedy department is compared to dramas this season. In fact, in recent days The Goldbergs and The Middle have been ABC's #3 and #4 shows due to Scandal's recent ratings collapse.

Meanwhile, Last Man Standing is still chugging along on Fridays with a 1.21 A18-49 average, a rating that neither of the Tuesday comedies can say. Down less than 5% year-to-year, this show would be an obvious renewal if it wasn't for Tim Allen's contract. Most expect a renewal like always though. Last Man Standing has the 2nd-healthiest year-to-year trend in ABC's scripted department, behind only The Middle.

LOSERS

Bridge Season
Bridge season for ABC is still more of an experiment that is a great idea that hasn't been executed properly--kind of like The Muppets. American Crime was ABC's highest-rated bridge show this season--and oh yeah, it's #20 in the scripted department of 25. At least it gets critical attention, something Marvel's Agent Carter (0.79, down 47%), Galavant (0.63, down 52%), and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.65) can't say.

The Muppets
It's a bit deceiving that The Muppets is currently ranked #11 on ABC's scripted ratings chart. It had everything going for it: a well-received pilot presentation, promos that got everyone excited, a new girlfriend for Kermit, bringing a Disney brand to ABC, finding a way to bring new life into Tuesday, guest stars, and the list goes on. It premiered to a 2.9 A18-49 demo. The problem was that not many people were particularly compelled by the pilot episode. Because that 2.9 turned into a 2.0 for the second episode, and by the time they hit the fourth episode it was at a paltry 1.3 rating. Not exactly the rating anyone was expecting, leaving Fresh Off The Boat to fend for itself and spend a second straight season making do with a not-so-ideal situation. Since this show was really supposed to succeed and ABC spent so much money promoting it, they decided to switch show runners and retool it, and even slightly upgraded it to the 8:30 time slot, which only sent it into fractional territory for its final six episodes. There has been talk that it will return for a second season, possibly in a Galavant-like role, but don't be fooled if it does; this was a giant ratings loss for ABC and if it returns will be because they're The Muppets, and are owned by Disney.

Tuesday at 10
What ABC has aired Tuesday at 10pm this season and two seasons ago make last season's Forever actually look good. A total of five weeks have been devoted to scripted programming in the time slot before they got replaced by equally low rated, yet cheaper, reality filler. I don't think anything has ever gotten a rating that wasn't fractional there this season. Even Beyond the Tank, which was holding almost all of Shark Tank in its three-week event last May was hitting consistent 0.5s in the time slot. The sad part is that the competition isn't overly intimidating; Chicago Fire does well for a 10pm show but Limitless shouldn't be something that you're afraid to counter-program against.

Paul Lee
Paul Lee's time at ABC had its ups and downs. They had a great season last year, but there has been some slippage this season. Reportedly his vision for the network wasn't in line with Ben Sherwood's, who wants more procedurals to Lee's serials. Time will tell if bridge season is kept, but Paul Lee's term came to an abrupt end in the eyes of the public a couple months ago. I do think that his bridge season idea was a great idea and hope to see it continue in some capacity.

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Mass Renewals Still Leave Questions Unanswered

Why is Dr Ken No Longer "Certain to be Renewed"?

Twitter

Last edition, I had 10 shows in the Certain to be Renewed category; now, there are zero shows there. 9 of them have been renewed, leaving me less certain that the 10th, Dr Ken, will be renewed. Based on ratings alone Dr Ken should get by with a renewal, as ABC has finally found a solid companion for Last Man Standing. The fact that Dr Ken didn't get included in the mass renewal though tells me that its fate may be dependent on that of Last Man Standing's. Some have suggested that ABC wants
tonight's (Friday March 4) data point without an all-new Last Man to make a decision, but if that was the case then why couldn't ABC wait a few more days to announce their renewals? We need to keep in mind that Dr Ken is co-produced by ABC Studios and Sony, which has a history of going through extensive measures to make its shows survive the cut. But it is entirely possible that ABC will only renew Dr Ken if they can renew Last Man Standing, or possibly even get rid of the multi-cam block entirely. They are under new management, after all, and if they did a year-round Shark Tank/Beyond the Tank lineup they could probably make a solid profit and at a cheaper production cost.

Why is Nothing "Certain to be Cancelled"?
I made a promise that I would not put an ABC bridge series as a certain cancellation after what happened last season. Under new management though, I think it's safe to say that Agent Carter and Galavant are most likely done. In fact, an interview with TV Series Finale saw an Agent Carter EP say that they thought chances of renewal were, in their own words, bad. Finally, I think it's safe to say The Muppets won't be coming back either. ABC was willing to give renewals to mediocrely-rated Quantico and ok-but-out-of-house-production Fresh Off The Boat renewals, but not The Muppets, which is fully owned and has corporate synergy with Disney. Considering Miss Piggy isn't a real person (shocking, right?), I think it's safe to say that contractual negotiations aren't holding back a decision. Speaking of which...

The Castle and Nashville Update
I'm not sure what to think about the lack of Castle in the announcements. I think if they were to bring it back for a final season definitively, they would have done so in the mass renewal announcement. Instead, nothing. Per Deadline they may still be in talks to figure out contracts, but with such low ratings does ABC even think it is worth it? Also, the lack of Nashville is starting to remind of Revenge last season. I think Nashville can still get a renewal if it returns to the 1s AND all the midseason dramas flop AND they can't get Castle negotiations figured out. It's to ABC what I consider Grandfathered to be to FOX; it's not out yet, but a lot has to go wrong in order to give it a spot on the schedule.

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: American Crime Starts As a Likely Renewal

First, sorry for the slightly-below-average quality of the table, I usually copy and paste from a document but it got all wacky on me when I tried to do that this time so I had to take a screenshot instead.

Changes from Last Time
-American Crime enters in the Watching category
-Galavant enters as a likely cancellation

Bridge Shows and Certain Cancellations
This season, I am considering not ever placing a bridge or shortened series as a certain cancellation. So if you're a fan of Galavant, American Crime, Agent Carter, The Family, or The Catch and other sites are showing a certain cancellation prediction, you'll be seeing something slightly more optimistic here. The reason being that very few people expected Galavant or American Crime to get out of their first season alive, yet both defied the odds. Seemingly there are lower standards for these types of series, and a large part of Galavant's renewal may have been its tax break.

Why is American Crime a Likely Renewal?
I can't believe that I wrote that article headline, or even the underlined phrase directly above this sentence. But I think the tides have shifted in favor of American Crime. Since the finish of its critically-acclaimed first season, American Crime has racked up numerous award nominations,

TV Guide

including an Emmy win for Regina King. Of course, awards don't mean everything, but for a limited anthology series, it may just be worth keeping around. I was very surprised that it held its own in its move away from its Scandal lead-in, and think this is a case where looking at retention only may be misleading. It's doing just as well as Castle and Nashville and not far away from Quantico, and those are all fall shows! I don't expect American Crime to take a fall spot away from any of them, so they are not in direct danger of cancellation, but regardless it's impressive for the show.

Why is Galavant a Likely Cancelation?
Galavant premiered to a very weak 0.8 A18-49 rating this season, series low. But that series low only lasted a short period of time, as it sunk to a 0.6 rating in its second week on the air. Perhaps it had a large audience overlap with the Golden Globes, but one thing that is clear is that all four of its

Variety

episodes are likely to be fractional. I'm not sure if it still has that tax break this season, but despite the seemingly lower standards for bridge shows, they certainly must have some sort of standard, and I think Galavant may have gone below that threshold. This point holds especially true if you look at its ad rate, which values the show at more than double the rating it just received. I think The Muppets would be much better suited for that time slot next season, but it all comes down to expenses.

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Midseason Preview

ABC

For those of you unfamiliar with my ad rate-based metrics, I have calculated the approximate demo number at which the network values each midseason entry, based on its ad rate and last season's average. ABC's ad rate this season increased 3-4%, so I predict the numbers could be off by about
that much. Here they are:

Galavant: 1.44

The Family: 1.27

The Real O'Neals: 1.03

Marvel's Agent Carter: 1.72

The Catch: 2.14

Secrets & Lies: 1.30

Uncle Buck: 0.96

Unfortunately I couldn't find data for American Crime or Of Kings and Prophets. 

It's simple: if the actual demo number is larger than this average, it will be renewed as ABC will see a chance to raise its ad rate and make more ad revenue off the show. If it goes significantly below the number above, ABC will have to lower the ad rate in order for another season to appeal to advertisers, meaning that the show may be more in limbo. The exception would be The Catch, which could easily squeak out a renewal if it goes a little lower than the number above due to the fact that it is so high. Now, for my prediction on these shows. Keep a close watch especially on the freshmen dramas, as they may affect renewal prospects for Castle and Nashville. I'm not putting anything as Certain to be Renewed or Certain to be Canceled, as that kind of assumption really can't be made ahead of time. There's also a possibility that there will be some renegotiating on Secrets & Lies if possible, depending on if it airs in the summer or not.

Likely to be Cancelled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed
Uncle Buck	The Real O’Neals	The Catch
	The Family	Marvel’s Agent Carter
	Galavant	Secrets & Lies

Showdown: The Real O'Neals vs Fresh Off The Boat

	The Real O’Neals	Fresh Off The Boat
Nature	Single-Cam (Tuesday)	Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)	N/A	1.51
Ad Rate	$80,690	$122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics)	1.03	1.56
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	N/A	1.2-1.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	1.51 (but has settled around 1.1-1.2)	N?A
% Decline Year-to-Year	N/A	16%
Syndication	N/A	N/A
Seasons	0.5	1.5
Production Company	ABC Studios	20th Century Fox
Extraneous Factors	Protests from various sources against the content and EP Dan Savage	First Asian-American led show on broadcast in 25 years; does well in that demo

Even though its average is a 1.51, Fresh Off The Boat simply isn't living up to its ad rate as of late. The switch back to 8pm come Daylight Savings Time will make keeping up even harder. Not to mention that The Real O'Neals is in-house produced. Protest all you want, but only low ratings will make the show go away. If both settle in the low 1s, it will be a tough decision to see if either will be renewed, as ABC already has five certain renewals when it comes to comedy, one more (Last Man Standing), and a seventh (The Muppets) that may be saved as a bridge show for the fact that they're The Muppets. ABC is really thriving in comedy right now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see both cancelled. ABC will probably be happy with The Real O'Neals if it can settle at a 1.0-1.2, given that's what they bargained for when setting the ad rate. However, that won't be enough to get it renewed based on league average declines unless they have plans to switch it to the post-Modern Family time slot, an unlikely proposition. However, if it settles in at least the mid 1s, ABC will see a chance to capitalize, thus raising the ad rate and making more money off the show. That's something that almost certainly cannot be said about the declining Fresh Off The Boat.

Edge: The Real O'Neals

Showdown: Galavant vs The Muppets

I just can't see a scenario where The Muppets come back in the fall. Any other show and the show would be an easy cancellation. But ABC may see a chance to cut their losses a little bit (which actually isn't as much as many people have thought based on its ad rate) and use it as a bridge comedy or midseason replacement. But most likely as a bridge comedy. I foresee that there may only be one, so let the battle begin. No, we don't know much about how Galavant Season 2 will do, but here's a sense going into the season:

	Galavant	The Muppets
Nature	Musical-Comedy (Sunday)	Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)	1.33 (last season)	1.51
Ad Rate	$112,914	$122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics)	1.44	1.68
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	0.9-2.0 (last season)	1.1-2.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	1.25 (Note: inflated slightly by 1.7 special rating)	N/A
% Decline Year-to-Year	N/A	N/A
Syndication	N/A	N/A
Seasons	8 episodes	1 partial season
Production Company	ABC Studios	ABC Studios
Extraneous Factors	Musical comedy, presumably cheap to produce	They’re The Muppets, a very popular franchise. ABC and The Muppets share the same corporate company (Disney)

Galavant premiered to a solid 2.0 last season, before falling to a 0.9 just two weeks later. It was considered one of the more surprising renewals of the season, and extraneous factors must have been a big reason for that. I don't know why ABC is valuing the show so relatively high other than the fact that there must be something we don't know about. That being said, I think The Muppets being a bigger brand may have a more compelling case for a renewal. I'm not saying definitively that either show will or should be renewed, but if one of them was, I would give the edge to The Muppets.

Edge: The Muppets

Will The Family Make It?

ABC All Access 

You would think that a 1.27 A18-49 value wouldn't be so hard to live up to, but The Family has to air between Once Upon a Time and Quantico, neither the ratings hits you may be led to believe based on Internet hype. Maintaining such a number may be hard. If it does well enough for a renewal, that's probably bad news for both Castle and Nashville.

When Will Uncle Buck and Secrets & Lies Air?

Looks to me like Secrets & Lies is planned for the summer, kind of like fellow anthology series Wayward Pines last season on FOX. If not, it's because The Family or more likely Of Kings and Prophets has been pulled from the schedule. Remember that the show's ad price was made when it supposedly was going to be a bridge for Nashville, so it may have lower standards if they push it to the summer.

In terms of Uncle Buck, the scenario that I see is that when the Friday block finishes, which has usually been in April, Uncle Buck does double-duty and is never heard from again.